IHS Analysis - Iran's Satellite Programme

IHS Jane’s

Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch
programme
September 2012 ihs.com

Introduction
KEY POINTS
Iran’s space programme is ambitious. The country has
Despite the rapid construction of a new space centre that will be
spent some USD500 million since 2010 on its new space
capable of handling large new liquid-fuelled rockets, analysis by
centre which, in addition to launching its current rockets, is IHS suggests that Iran’s space programme has had several delays
being prepared to launch larger rockets currently under and authorities are covering up launch failures.
development. Since February 2011, Iran has launched five
The Iranian plan may be to provide commercial space launch
rockets at an average of one almost every 16 weeks, and
services, and, using satellite imagery over the construction at
has plans for more. Semnan, IHS has determined that the new launch tower will be
able to facilitate the launch of a rocket even larger than those
IHS was the first to report on the new construction at the reportedly under development.
Khomeini Space Centre near Semnan in the north of the
country in 2010, and despite only starting some two years Although designated for space launch, the rockets themselves use
components from ballistic missiles, suggesting that the military
ago, the aggressive pace of construction of Iran’s first
implications of the project could add to tensions within the region.
space launch centre has meant that “some 80% of the
actual construction” had already been completed by June
regime, which is underscored by its naming after the
2012, according to Iranian Minister of Defence Ahmad
country’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini.
Vahidi. This was confirmed by commercial satellite
imagery obtained and analysed by IHS. The scale and At the current rate of construction, it is believed that Iran
speed of construction attest to the site’s importance to the will have the capability to launch the new Simorgh satellite

© 2012 IHS 1 ihs.com

IHS Jane’s Analysis: Iran’s satellite launch programme

launch vehicle (SLV) by mid-2013, although in reality the A 110B is a road-mobile, solid propellant, single warhead
programme has not progressed as smoothly as the Iranian missile. It is 8.86m long, 0.61m in diameter, has a range of
authorities have portrayed. over 300 km, and can carry a payload of 500 kg.

Launch record Kavoshgar-4 was launched on 15 March 2011, carrying a
dummy the same weight and size as the live monkey that
Considering Iran’s first indigenous space attempt was only would launch on Kavoshgar-5. The launch appeared to be
made in 2008, even its partially successful space successful, and Iran indeed claimed success; however, a
launches mark success for an emerging rocket capability. recent image of what is suspected to be the recovered
Its launch record is all the more impressive when Kavoshgar-4 capsule has been released and appears to
compared to other emerging programmes like North show significant damage. The successful recovery of a
Korea’s, which has only had the means to carry out four capsule is critical if an animal or future astronaut is to
tests in 14 years, all of which have failed during launch. survive; the damage sustained challenges claims that the
Despite this relative success, preceding missions should mission was a full success.
only be described as partial successes at best. However, Kavoshgar-5 was more ambitious and was to carry a live
of the four acknowledged launches, Iran claims one primate. Initially scheduled for some time in September
success and one failure for the two Kavoshgar research 2011, further announcements narrowed the launch date to
rockets, and two successful launches for its satellites on between 7-9 September. After these dates passed, no
the Safir-1B SLV. Iran has not acknowledged the fifth – further announcements were made for almost a month
the launch of the Safir and its Fajr satellite payload – when, on 12 October 2011, Deputy Minister of Science
insisting its May launch has been delayed. IHS has Mehdinejad-Norui stated: “The launch was not publicised,
attained commercially available imagery indicating that the as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished
launch failed. and Iran indefinitely postponed plans to send a live
Putting an astronaut into space within the next decade is a monkey into space.” The report was tantamount to an
goal often stated by the Iranian authorities. To this end, admission of failure. Several announcements in May 2012
Iran has launched two rockets into space with payloads indicated that the Iranian authorities aimed to try again in
that carried simulated or live primates, which were August or September 2012, although at the time of writing
planned to be recovered after re-entry. The Kavoshgar-4 no further launches have occurred.
and -5 research rockets used a Fateh-110 military short
range ballistic missile (SRBM) as their booster. The Fateh-



Satellite launches assembly was from a Sony digital commercial camera
available at camera stores.
Since 2011, Iran has officially launched the Safir-1B SLV
twice, with evidence of a third launch. The first satellite, There are many reasons for this poor quality. Creating
Rasad, was launched on 16 June 2011. Although it wholly indigenous high-resolution imaging satellites
achieved orbit, this was lower than planned, limiting its requires intensive technological specialisation rivalling that
life-span from two months to just three weeks. Despite of even rocketry and nuclear science in terms of difficulty
claims that the satellite returned images, none have been and proprietary access. High-resolution imagery requires
released, suggesting that the satellite may have failed. a satellite payload too heavy for Iran’s current rocket
arsenal to lift, or a highly advanced lighter satellite whose
The second satellite, Navid, was also on an imagery
development far exceeds the technological capability of all
mission. It was launched on 3 February 2012 and
but a handful of countries.
achieved an orbit close to that planned, and decayed
naturally on 1 April after nearly two months in orbit. Like The third Safir-1B launch attempt carried the Fajr imagery
Rasad, the Iranians released statements early on in the reconnaissance satellite, on or about 23 May 2012.
Navid mission saying that the satellite had taken images, Despite statements issued by the Iranian authorities
but again, none were released. While the lack of images suggesting that the launch was postponed, IHS analysis of
suggests that both satellites failed once in orbit, another open source and commercial satellite imagery indicates
reason for not releasing imagery could be embarrassingly that the launch did in fact take place, suggesting the
poor picture quality. The day after the Rasad launch, the authorities fabricated a story to cover up a launch failure.
Head of Iran’s Space Agency, Hamid Fazeli, publicly A comparison of imagery of the Safir SLV launch site on
acknowledged: “The cameras onboard past and planned different dates shows that a launch coinciding with the
satellites are too poor to give useful images...Even the announced Fajr mission actually occurred. The Safir SLV
Amir Kabir, Navid, and Zafar that Iran is planning to orbit is the only rocket known to use this pad and, in general,
in the next few years have cameras that take pictures of the Iranians do not clean their launch pads until a few
low resolution and limited utility.” weeks before the next launch. This means that blast scars
remain for considerable periods of time, providing an
It is known from statements by Iranian officials that at least
excellent indicator of launch activity.
one camera on a future satellite will provide photos only
1/800th of the quality of satellite photos that are already The pad on 18 May was clean, painted a light blue with
available commercially. One source, utilising published three dark blue Iranian Space Agency logos. On the 21
material, reported that a camera lens seen during June, some 30 days after the expected launch date, there



are clear blast marks appearing in the centre of the pad, would most likely be a copy of the one that appears to
indicating that the Fajr launch had occurred sometime have failed in May 2012, with the delay between launches
between these dates, contradicting Iranian reports that the needed to establish why the initial attempt failed and
launch had been postponed. The appearance of the pad prepare and ready another Safir-1B SLV and Fajr satellite
had still not changed in imagery from 14 August 2012. for launch.

At the Safir launch site, the blast scars appear as ‘V’ In addition, the Kavoshgar-5 research rocket (again,
shaped, caused by the curved blast splitter under the believed to be a copy of the one that failed in September
rocket, which directs the exhaust gas away from the 2011) was scheduled for launch in late August or
transporter erector launcher (TEL) and umbilical tower. September 2012. These launches would be the second
The same signature has been present after the launches attempts for both missions. Regardless of Iran’s individual
of the three previous Safir satellite launches: Omid launch successes or failures, the pace and scale of these
(February 2009), Rasad (June 2011) and Navid (February efforts have all been underpinned by an unrelenting drive
2012). No imagery is available for the first two launches in to advance the country’s rocket capabilities, as shown by
February 2007 and August 2008. the frequency of such high-profile launches and continued
aggressive construction at their pre-eminent space launch
A history of the Fajr satellite centre.
Date Description
7 Feb 11 Mock-up displayed in Tehran at Aerospace Technology Day
Director of the Iran Space Agency, Hamid Fazeli, announces that Fajr will
2 May 12
launch within a month
Nuclear fears
Head of Iran’s Aerospatial Industries, Mehdi Farahi, announces launch
12 May 12 Tensions remain high in the region, not least because of
date of 23 May; confirmed by Minister of Defence Ahmad Vahidi
18 May 12 Satellite imagery shows a clear launch pad, free from blast scarring
23 May 12 Day of launch; no news Western and Israeli fears about a secret Iranian nuclear
29 May 12
Hamid Fazeli announces that launch had been delayed and would take weapons programme. Warheads are not the only concern,
place within 10 months
21 Jun 12
Satellite imagery shows a launch pad with blast scarring, suggesting as a nuclear weapon would still need to be mounted onto
launch had taken place
Fathollah Karami, member of Aerospace Technology Development a delivery system. Given Iran’s current arsenal, the most
6 Jul 12 Committee, states that delay was caused by micro-motors used for orbit
changing
likely candidate would be the Shahab-3 or Sejil-2 ballistic
12 Jul 12 Hamid Fazeli announces that Fajr is undergoing final tests missiles, although given their relatively small size there
1 Aug 12 Hamid Fazeli states that Fajr would launch in 2-3 months
would be a number of problems mounting a large, basic
The most likely explanation for the official silence is that nuclear weapon.
the Fajr failed to achieve orbit, although on 1 August 2012,
Hamid Fazeli, Head of the Iranian Space Agency, stated Considering the inherent difficulties of miniaturising a
that it would be launched in “two to three months”. This nuclear device, any developments that may allow Iran to



launch bigger rockets or heavier payloads are bound to large investment. Previously, Russia and the European
cause international concern. Analysis of the infrastructure Space Agency (ESA) have both managed to generate
being built at Semnan confirms that Iran is preparing for successful revenue streams through space launches.
larger rockets than the two-stage Simorgh SLV that was However, the Shabab-3 missile is technically the first
previously due to be hosted by the site. The overlapping stage of the two-stage Safir SLV, and it is unlikely that the
nature of the technologies involved in an SLV and an prospect of the technology being used to launch an SLV
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) mean that being applied to longer-range ballistic weapons has been
converting successful space launches into a weapons lost on Iran’s neighbours.
capability, to gain greater influence inside and outside the
region, is a real possibility. Evolving site

In an effort to allay these fears, Minister of Defence Vahidi IHS first reported on the presence of the original space
declared through the Islamic Republic News Agency on 2 pad at Semnan in 2008, and the massive construction
June 2012: “[The] Iranian government aspires to develop effort in 2010. Subsequent efforts mean that today the
the centre into a point of reference for the Islamic world.” largest feature of the Khomeini Space Launch Centre is a
new launch complex, which consists of three separate
Given the exposure of the site, and the time-consuming parts: the launch pad, the control bunker and a propellant
processes of assembling and fuelling large liquid rockets, storage area – all connected by over 1.2 km of buried
Semnan is the likely site for testing these rockets but is concrete conduits. In addition to the launch complex there
unlikely to be an operational missile base. There has been is a liquid-rocket engine test facility and a horizontal
no mention of launching the military missiles for which the assembly/check-out building, as well as other smaller
original Semnan test range was developed. Launching buildings.
satellites for domestic use is probably the business model
that the Iranian government is hoping will pay for such a The launch pad was under construction by October 2010

Iranian space launches since 2011
Date Rocket Type Payload Mission Comment
Capsule with
Research Partial success; successful launch but photo of damaged capsule, probablt Kavoshgar-4, has
2 Feb 11 Kavoshgar-4 simulated Capsule test
rocket been released
monkey
16 Jun 11 Safir-1B SLV Rasad satellite Imagery Partial success; lower orbit of satellite achieved, no imagery released
Research Capsule with live Capsule return and
Sep 11 Kavoshgar-5 Failed recovery after successful launch. Failure confirmed by officials.
rocket primate primate survival
3 Feb 12 Safir-1B SLV Navid satellite Imagery Partial success; no imagery released
23 May 12 Safir-1B SLV Fajr satellite Imagery Likely launch failure



and was still being worked on by August 2012. Notably, at type of the engine tested cannot be determined, although
the pad’s centre – where the launch stand has been IHS believes that it was a cluster of four Simorgh first
placed – the two flame trenches neck down to a 5m width, stage engines, probably to check the integrity of the test
then flare out to their full 10m width at the edges of the stand.
pad and continue to a total length of 40m. This suggests
that the rocket that the pad was initially built to launch was IHS originally reported that this new launch facility at
less than 5m in diameter, probably in the 4m to 4.5m Semnan would be constructed specifically for the Simorgh
range (which is also the upper limit of the engine test rocket, but analysis of the launch pad shows that Iranian
facility). rocket ambitions exceed even this huge rocket. The two-
stage Simorgh SLV will be 27m in length and 2.5m in
The seven-storey gantry tower is about 40m in height, diameter. This is larger than the 0.61m diameter of the
although it has a roof that means the maximum height of a Fateh-110 engines used for the Kavoshgar-4/5, and the
potential future rocket may be a few metres less. The 5m Safir’s 22m length and 1.25m diameter.
width of the flame trench limits the diameter of any new
rocket to around 4.5m or less. This indicates that a new three-stage SLV is under
development which will have a probable length of just
While it is difficult to estimate the sizes of the tanks inside under 40m, and a diameter of between 3.5m to 4.5m. All
the propellant storage area, its buildings are larger than of the satellites due for launch are planned for either the
similar constructions at North Korea’s Sohae or Tonghae Safir or Simorgh SLVs, which suggests that it will be at
sites. The larger size may suggest that Iran intends to least four to five years before the newer, larger rocket is
handle more frequent launches, which would be ready for its first launch.
consistent with its commercial aspirations. Outside the
launch complex, the test stand at the liquid-engine rocket
test facility is Iran’s largest.

The site is already in use, and imagery from 18 May 2012
shows an engine test had recently taken place. Compared
with images from 19 December 2011, the bottom of the
flame trench has changed colour from a concrete grey,
while the presence of a stream of black liquid running into
a drain and an apparent blast scar suggest the recent test
may not have been entirely successful. The size and fuel



Conclusion
Iran’s launch record is impressive for a country that is still This analysis is abridged; the full analysis – including
developing its rocket capability, particularly when satellite imagery analysis – was first published in IHS
compared to countries embarking on similar programmes, Jane’s Intelligence Review in September 2012 and is
although there is still room for improvement. A possible available within IHS Jane’s Military & Security
failed rocket engine test was seen in early 2012, and Assessments Intelligence Centre.
despite statements to the contrary, it is highly probable
that Iran attempted to launch the Fajr satellite payload on
a Safir-1B SLV on 23 May 2012, but failed to achieve
orbit. Yet after six days, and no mention of a failure in the
media, authorities concocted a story that the launch had
been postponed for up to 10 months. Tight media control
was also seen after the failure of Kavoshgar-5.

Iran’s drive to complete the Khomeini Space Centre is
matched by its ambitions for larger rockets, with the centre
being geared towards hosting rockets with larger payloads
and longer ranges. These will help it project power and
assert strategic dominance in the region, while once again
spotlighting potential complementarity with the putative
nuclear weapons programme.



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IHS Analysis - Iran's Satellite Programme

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