This document summarizes a presentation on determining the minimum viable farm size for food security and commercialization in Malawi. It finds that as the population grows and average farm sizes decrease, food production will soon fail to meet consumption needs if farm sizes fall below 0.7 hectares. Projection models estimate food deficits will occur by 2013 at the current rate of decreasing farm size. While diversification and commercialization may be possible on small land areas, maintaining or increasing average farm size is important for continued food security. The presentation concludes that land policy reform, improved productivity, rural employment creation, and reduced population pressure through family planning are all needed to address the challenges.

1. Is there a minimum farm size
frontier for food security and
agricultural commercialization in
Malawi?
Dr. Athur Mabiso (IFPRI)
October 10th 2014, Golden Peacock Hotel, Lilongwe, Malawi

2. Background and Motivation
• Increasing population pressure in Malawi, particularly in
the South
• National annual %Δ = 2.8%
• Most go into farming implying more farmers each year
• Structure and dynamics of land use in Malawi
• Small land area per farm household getting smaller
• Juxtaposed to large-scale estate farms
• Land bill currently stuck in the policy process
• Debate on ability to commercialize and diversify
smallholder agriculture on small land areas without
compromising food security?

3. Data
• National Agricultural Census (NACAL 2007)
• IHS3 (2010/11)
• Production estimates and harvested land area data at
Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water
Development
• FAO food consumption estimates, UNECA Population
database

4. Methods of Analysis
• Descriptive statistics of landholding and farm size data
• 10-year interval MA and ARMA trend-based
projections of food consumption and food production
• Scenario analysis at household level to assess farm size
relationship with food security and commercialization
goals
• Draw on literature and statistical estimates to inform farm
size scenarios chosen and yield estimates chosen

5. Land under maize and farmer
population in Malawi
Year
Cultivated area
(ha)
Number of farm
holders Population
2007 1,394,461 2,665,565 13,713,758
2014 1,914,565 3,274,415 16,846,160
% increase 37.3% 22.9%
% of population
in 2014 -- 19.4% --
Source: National Census of Agriculture and Livestock (2008); UN Population Division:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2014) for population estimates
Note: Number of farm holders in 2014 is projected assuming proportional trend growth;
Total available agricultural land is approximately 5,585,750 ha (including livestock area).

6. Farm size distribution
Table 2. Mean farm holding size in
2006/07 (ha)
Total 0.964
Male 1.031
Female 0.803
Source: National Census of
Agriculture and Livestock (2008)
Table 3. Percentage of households by holding
size category (2006/07)
Farm size Percent
Estimated number
of holders
<0.1 ha 5 133,278
0.1 to <0.2ha 7 186,590
0.2 to <0.5ha 26 693,047
0.5 to <1ha 34 906,292
1ha to <2ha 19 506,457
2ha or more 8 213,245
Source: National Census of Agriculture and
Livestock (2008)

7. Other cereals
FAO Cereal supply/demand balance for 2013/14 (April to March) in thousands of tons
Cereal supply and utilization Wheat Rice
Coarse
grains
Total
cereals
2013 Production (incl. milled
rice) 2 81 3,765 3,848
2013/14 Import requirement 75 25 15 115
Estimated per capita
consumption (kg per year) 5 6 157 168
Source: FAO (2014)

8. 3,950,000
3,450,000
3,500,000
2,950,000
3,000,000
2,450,000
2,500,000
1,950,000
2,000,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
950,000
1,000,000
450,000
500,000
0
Crop production in Malawi (mt)
Crop production in Malawi in metric tonnes
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
maize (mt) rice (mt) groundnuts (mt) soya beans (mt) pigeon peas (mt)
-50,000
maize (mt) rice (mt) groundnuts (mt)
soya beans (mt) pigeon peas (mt) 4 per. Mov. Avg. (maize (mt))
5 per. Mov. Avg. (maize (mt))

9. Projections of population, annual maize
production and consumption at 0.7ha farm size
Year Population
Maize
consumption
(Metric tonnes)
Production
(Metric tonnes)
Surplus or Deficit
(Metric tonnes)
2012 15,910,000 3,484,290 3,623,924 139,634
2013 16,371,390 3,585,334 2,919,720 -665,614
2014 16,846,160 3,689,309 3,214,405 -474,904
2015 17,334,699 3,796,299 3,538,832 -257,467
2016 17,837,405 3,906,392 3,896,004 -10,388
2017 18,354,690 4,019,677 4,289,224 269,547
2018 18,886,976 4,136,248 4,722,132 585,884
2019 19,434,698 4,256,199 5,198,733 942,534
2020 19,998,305 4,379,629 5,723,437 1,343,808
Source: Author’s Calculations using UNECA 2013 population data, FAO/GIEWS 2014 and World Bank, 2014
Note: A 2.9% population growth rate is assumed. Also, it is assumed that on average maize consumption is 0.6kg per
capita per day; this includes estimates of quantities lost during processing, harvesting etc. ** These figures do not
account for storage inventory data or imports; Average Farm size assumed to be 0.8 ha.

10. Projections of population, annual maize
production and consumption at 0.4ha farm size
Year Population
Maize
consumption
(tons)
Maize
Production Surplus or deficit
2012 15,910,000 3,484,290 3,623,924 139,634
2013 16,371,390 3,585,334 2,919,720 -665,614
2014 16,846,160 3,689,309 3,214,405 -474,904
2015 17,334,699 3,796,299 3,377,279 -419,020
2016 17,837,405 3,906,392 3,406,102 -500,290
2017 18,354,690 4,019,677 3,308,286 -711,391
2018 18,886,976 4,136,248 3,245,158 -891,090
2019 19,434,698 4,256,199 3,310,246 -945,953
2020 19,998,305 4,379,629 3,329,414 -1,050,215

11. Preliminary Conclusions
• For each crop and livestock mix, and farmer typology there
is a unique minimum farm size required to achieve food
security and commercialize
• Population pressure will continue to rise so family planning
policy may have an important mitigating role
• Farm productivity and agricultural value addition must
increase!
• Average farm size should not get any smaller
• Land rental markets may play an important role
• Need Land policy reform (land bill) to promote the development
of efficient land rental markets

12. Preliminary Conclusions
• Diversification into higher-value crops and
commercialization on small land areas possible
• Movement out of agriculture essential for a large share
of smallholder farmers to relieve pressure on
agriculture
• Employment creation and skills development outside
of agriculture is probably also critical

13. Zikomo kwambiri!