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IESA Medium Term Oil
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IESA Medium Term Oil
- © OECD/IEA 2013© OECD/IEA 2013 Paris/Caracas, 11 July 2013
- © OECD/IEA 2013 A pivotal time in oil markets North American supply shock Lagged impact from the “Arab Spring” Rise of the non-OECD: beyond demand Redefining the supply chain -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World SupplyCapacity Growth
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Demand: rise of the non-OECD region Global demand up 6.9 mb/d 2012-18, to 96.7 mb/d Global growth 1.1 mb/d (1.2%) per year Non-OECD demand grows by 8.4 mb/d from 2012-2018 China slows down, Africa gains momentum ECD demand contracts by 1.5 mb/d Global forecast down slightly v. 2012 MTOMR (-95kb/d, 2017) Global Oil Demand Growth -5.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 OECD Non-OECD
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Transport still drives oil use… …but transport gas is around the corner Oil accounts for 96.4% of road transport demand 2018 (97.8% 2010) Gasoline market share edges down at the margin Growth down to 1.2% per year on efficiency, fuel switching Gas inroads: 2.5% of transport demand by 2018 (1.4% 2010; 0.2% 2000) Jet fuel demand up 1.1% per year Fuel switching cuts bunker demand growth to +0.3% per year Global Road Transport Sector 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2015 2018 Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others Gasoline Demand, kb/d 5 000 10 000 15 000 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 OECD Non-OECD
- © OECD/IEA 2013 US & Iraq lead supply growth Production capacity set to grow by 8.4 mb/d Balance of incremental growth tilts towards US N. American oil sands, LTO provide 40% Iraqi capacity provides 20% of liquids growth High prices unlock non-OPEC supplies as OPEC capacity growth is constrained 1.8 1.0 2.8 2.3 2.3 0.6 1.4 2.0 0.5 2.4 6.0 8.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 OPEC* Non-OPEC Total mb/d Global Liquids Growth 2012-18 Crude US Light Tight Oil NGLs Non-Conv Biofuels Processing Gain * OPEC crude is capacity additions Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC
- © OECD/IEA 2013 New trends in capital expenditures LTO share of global capex doubles to 14% Capex shifts away from OPEC Brazil drives growth in deepwater spending Tight oil, deepwater spending on the rise Oil Sands Deepwater Tight Oil - 100 200 300 400 500 600 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 $Billion ShareofCapex(%) Annual Capex by Oil Type 22% 16% 7% 14% Total Capex (RHS) Source: IEA AnalysisofRystad Energy. Oil deposits only. Other
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Non-OPEC supply: West Side story -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 mb/d Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total
- © OECD/IEA 2013 OPEC capacity growth hits hurdles Growth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d Forecast cut by 750 kb/d Mounting security risks, instability in North/West Africa in wake of ‘Arab Spring’ changes equation for acceptable risks Unattractive investment terms Project delays in Algeria, Libya and Nigeria Zero growth in Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Algeria (7.12 mb/d production) -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mb/d Change in OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity Iran Iraq UAE Saudi Arabia Other Total OPEC
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Mideast leads OPEC capacity growth Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran decline KSA seen lifting capacity by 1.45 mb/d (gross) to keep capacity in 12.2 mb/d-12.4 mb/d range Iraqi capacity up by 1.6 mb/d to 4.8 mb/d UAE capacity up by 740 kb/d to 3.4 mb/d Sanction-hit Iran tumbles by 1.1 mb/d to 2.4 mb/d OPEC Mideast capacity up by 1.5 mb/d, 30% of global oil supply capacity increase OPEC spare capacity up 6.98 mb/d by 2015 Slides back to 6.13 mb/d by 2018 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Iran Saudi Arabia Ecuador Qatar Algeria Kuwait Venezuela Libya Nigeria UAE Angola Iraq mb/d Incremental OPEC Crude Production Capacity 2012-18
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d Biofuels output seen up 3.5% per yr to 2.4 mb/d 2018, from 1.9 mb/d 2012 1.8% of 2018 oil demand on energy adjusted basis US leads OECD Americas growth to 974 kb/d 2013 and 1,1 mb/d 2018 – if it doesn’t hit the ethanol blend wall Brazil leads non-OECD Americas to 560 kb/d 2013 and 720 kb/d 2018 – but EU subsidy probe clouds biodiesel Argentine exports 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mb/d Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels Brazil Biofuels US Biofuels
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Rise of the non-OECD refining titans Global CDU capacity seen up by 9.5 mb/d; refining capacity gets more sophisticated China 45% Other Asia 14% Latin America 14% Middle East 22% Other 5% Regional Share of CDU Expansions China leads CDU additions
- © OECD/IEA 2013 N. American refining: focus on upgrading & desulpherisation -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mb/d NorthAmerican Capacity Additions Crude Distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation Latin America still an import magnet
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Crude trade contracts, flows shift Atlantic-to-Pacific trade edges up Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes* (million barrels per day) * Excludes Intra-Regional Trade 3.1 (-0.6) 3.9 (-0.9) 0.3 (-0.8) 2.9 1.6 (0.3) 1.2 (+0.4) -0.3 1.5 1.7 (+0.8) (-1) 0.5 (+0.4) 0.5 Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-18 (+0) 6.2 (+0.8) Other Asia China OECD Europe 1.3 (-0.3) 1.4 (+0.7) OECD Pacific 0.3 (+0.1) 0.7 (+0.3) 2.9 (-1.4) North America
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Global storage expands as needs change Capacity growth spans all regions Non-OECD strategic stocks expanding China, India, ASEAN Independent operators expand tanks at trade hubs to support long-haul trade North American supply growth, debottlenecking New trade routes (FSU) Rising imports led by demand growth (Africa, Asia)
- © OECD/IEA 2013 Thank you Questions & comments: OilMarketReport@iea.org
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Good morning ladies & gents, thanks for being her, thanks to Platts, etc As ED said, Only 7 months since 2012 MTOMR . Outlook not dramatically different, headlines figures are broadly consistent: Demand growth -- relatively subdued versus pre-2008 fin. crisis Non-OPEC supply growth very robust, led by N. Am., especially US LTO Total supply growth> demand growth Refining cap. expanding even more rapidly, especially E of Suez More comfortable global balances , increase in OPEC spare capacity , on a sustained basis, to level unseen since the 1990s -- but against high risk backdrop. - That was our msg then, that’s our msg today. we don’t forecast prices, but consistent w/ current easing of prices What’s new: -US growth even steeper OPEC capacity growth significantly slower ( Africa, Iraq pbs had been discounted) More analytical depth - market implications of these trends, what it all means: Next five years will be pivotal in oil markets: Supply shock – shock waves, ripple effects, horizontally and vertically Arab spring – the real challenges are ahead of us. Major transition New chapter in non-OECD demand. China slows., others accelerate (Afr) -the supply chain , the way products are getting to customers is changing dramatically . This is a very different market. Different volumes from different places, different quality of crude, different logistics, cast of mkt participants. Pivotal change in oil markets Security and price implications – we set the stager for understanding them
- In terms of demands, three or 4 main points: Moderate demand growth . Based / IMF forecast of moderate growth, 3 speed recovery . 6.9 mb.d total, 1.1 mb/d / year Not very different from 2012 MTOMR, small cut due to lower 23012 baseline, only <100 kb/d lower for 2017 Main story is OECD/non-OECD divergence . Non-OECD overtakes OECD as early as this quarter, gaps widens thereafter - IMF sees 3 speed - non-OECD leads growth - Bifurcation in OECD US/EU - but demand still 2-spped: UIS GDP increase not reflected in oil demand Within the non-OECD, China slowdown , changing gears, shifting to lower gear: China demand up 2.4 mb/d 2012-18, to 12 mb/d Same aggregate growth as 2003-2009, but from higher base, so lower annual growth, 3.7% versus 6.2% - China entering new phase of development, new growth targets, etc - efficiency and environmental control policy (fuel switching) Ascent of other non-OECDs : rising income growth, car ownership, consumer demand. Africa – new demand frontier? Oil demand up 4% per year, near 1mb/d total Africa baseline up 1-5 kb/d 2012 New role of non-OECD : refining capacity, crude imports, storage, etc. New international footprint , non-OECD companies active, rising equity production, major participants in international trade, can act as key suppliers to OPECD countries. – refining capacity in OECD countries, storage ,etc Greater integration on non-OECD countries in the international energy system Possibly in financial sector as well, futures, exchanges ,etc
- If we break down demand by products, story broadly consistent, but a few changes TRANSPORT STILL TOP DIVER OIL STILL TOP TRANSPORT FUEL 2 CHANGES: BRIEF PAUSE IN THE TREND TOWARDS DIESELISATION. GASOLNIE STRENGTH, DRIVEN BY NON-OECD OIL BEGINNNING TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON TRANSPORT FUELS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE NATURAL GAS MAKING INROADS INTO THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Gas had a role in transport in some countries like Pakistan but mostly niche markets But in top two countries, gas making inroads: US, driven by cheap and abundant shale gas Rail Trucks, buses, garbage fleets, etc Cars last China, driven by environmental policy Huge potential given size of bus and truck fleet Next five years will see mostly infrastructure rollout, biggest impact likely post-5 years But some impact already, becoming a reality
- Moving to the supply side, Iraq and the US are still top sources of supply growth, as in 2012 MTOMR. But balance is shifting: - 2012 MTOMR - roughly equal OPEC/non-OPEC growth - 2013 MTOMR - more from N-OPEC. (1.75 mb/d OPEC crude, 5.8 mb/d non-OPEC) Reflecting 2 adjustments: 1) more N. Am supply, 2) less OPEC capacity ** 40% comes from N. American oil sands and LTO prod. (** incl. 2.3 mb/d from US LTO alone, only 1 mb/d elsewhere. ) ** Around 20% of liquids growth comes from Iraqi capacity… US LTO as supply shock: - Volume growth just part of the story (see KSA increases) quality - location -- mature market, inland, etc - backing our imports, chain reaction Chain reaction downstream – refining, petchems, etc Also, impact on supply growth outside of North America. This is twofold: Portfolio management, capex allocation (next slide) Potential application of non-conventional technology elsewhere: Sale oil (beyond mid-term) Low-permeability mature, conventional plays
- Sustained high oil prices + technological advances are causing a broad shift in capital expenditure: Tight oil driving much of that increase but DW also sees increase LTO share of capex doubles from 7% 2010 to 14% 2018 DW from 16% to 22% - OPEC vs non-OPEC: 2006-2012: OPEC + 90%, non-OPEC +50% 2012-2018: OPEC +20%, non-OPEC +30% Deepwater more attractive improving breakeven prices for higher DW capex Majorit y of spending in next couple years from Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and the North Sea through 2015 Brazil should drive offshore spending as the company takes delivery (or seeks alternatives to) its 28 domestically built floaters for developing ultradeepwater pre-salt reserves.
- Non-OPEC supplies + 1.4 mb/d per year, (around 2% per year) -- Next 5 years driven by the Americas; US supply (inc. NGL) +2.8 mb/d to 11.9 mb/d US crude+condensate +2.5 mb/d; US fractionation capacity additions boost NGL +770 kb/d Canada + 1.2 mb/d , led by oil sands, despite bottlenecks Brazil + ca. 1 mb/d, mostly deepwater US supply: breakeven at current prices or lower; Realized prices would have to average in the $60-65 range in the Bakken to stop growth in its tracks. Constraints: Labor and supply chain management : Lack of lodging, traffic, and socio-economic impacts on communities could impact the pace of production growth significantly; public policy will have to balance this with employment impacts. Takeaway capacity : Lack of low-cost takeaway capacity will crimp producer profit margins most acutely in the Bakken, to a lesser extent Eagle Ford play and the Permian basin. Temporary bottlenecks have already caused significant price discounts from the Permian Basin in Texas and the Bakken play. Financing : Companies may be challenged to attract capital to respond to commodity price changes and if banks assess that companies are over-leveraged. Decline rate, composition, Initial Production rates : We know more about shale gas plays that have been producing for twice as much time. Initial production levels and decline rates are highly variable across a given play. Companies can cherry pick these key variables for investors, leading to over-optimistic forecasts. Also, composition of crude, NGL, water mix can change over time and within a given acreage, requiring changes in infrastructure and lower (or higher) oil output depending on economics, capital constraints, or infrastructure constraints. Comingled conventional oil : It can be difficult to distinguish between oil produced from LTO and oil that is collected at the same time from non-tight or non-shale formations, thus skewing resource and production estimates.
- World biofuel production is expected to reach 2.36 mb/d in 2018 , up 485 kb/d on 2012. but uncertainty on EU + US support policies provides major downside risk. EU: Draft EC legislation launched Oct. 2012 would cap use of food-based biofuels to 5% of transport fuel demand (roughly current avg EU blending share) vs maximum 10% stipulated in the Renewable Energy Directive. Discussion ongoing, but ind. confidence affected, likely negative investment impact US , 2012 drought fuelled opposition to RFS2 mainly from livestock farmers hurt by high corn prices & low margins. Since early 2013, market participants also claim to have difficulties surpassing the ethanol “blend wall” about 10% share of ethanol in the gasoline pool) (RIN rally) US ethanol output still affected by 2012 drought , with 2013 production reaching 853 kb/d, down 10 kb/d y-o-y. 10% of ca. 200 US ethanol plants sit idle, 1Q13 production avg 800 kb/d (vs. 910 kb/d in 1Q12) - US biodiesel sector is better-off thanks to a re-introduction of a $1/gln blender’s tax credit that should push production to 84kb/d, the mandated volume under the RFS2 Canada biofuel support phase out in 2017, leading to a reduction in production over the medium-term Blend wall: 10% share (vol.) of ethanol in gasoline declared safe by car manufacturers Shrinking US mogas demand (CAFÉ Standards) Gasoline retailers, car manufacturers, et al. flag liability w/ blends > E10. ->Costs & logistical challenges of reconfiguring pumps & storage at fuel stations Non-OECD Americas biofuel production reached 510 kb/d in 2012 , up 25 kb/d y-o-y; 560 kb/d 2013; up to 720 kb/d in 2018, driven mainly by Brazilian ethanol. Brazilian ethanol production seen up 50 kb/d in 2013 , on expected banner sugarcane harvest, a re-increase in the domestic ethanol mandate from 20% to 25%, and improved competitiveness of ethanol production over sugar. S ugarcane sector still in financial difficulties, likely to persist as low sugar prices hurt smaller and outdated mills. The financial situation of mills will also have an important impact on the expansion of the sugarcane area. Access to financing for mills will be key to ensure needed capacity additions in next 5 years Argentine biodiesel production to drop 7 kb/d to 40 kb/d in 2013 , due to ongoing EU anti-dumping investigation that might lead to retro-active import tariffs on Argentine biodiesel exports to the region. 2012 Biodiesel exports down 7.5% in 2012 on the probe, 1Q13 exports down 50% y-o-y
- Global rude trade falls by 900 kb/d to 32, 4 mb/d - N. American supply hike - lower refinery demand elsewhere in OECD -- Increased imports to China, other Asia -- More crude refined closer to wellhead Flip side; high product trade
- Global stocks: implied 200 mb build in 2012 OECD + 72 mb reported China SPR Phase 2 likely fill +89 mb Total Phase 2 capacity now estimated at 245 mb, to be completed end-2015 Phase 3 capacity seen 152 mb, to be completed 2020 China commercial +10 mb reported KSA crude stocks +36 mb? Other non-OECD Patchy non-OECD stock, storage capacity data
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