SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 36
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
Model archaeology
Paul E. Dodds
UCL Energy Institute, University College London
Presented at the 70th IEA ETSAP workshop, Madrid, on 17 November 2016
Introduction
• Energy system models have opaque structures
– changes between model versions?
– extent of changes described in research papers.
• We wanted to develop a UK TIMES Model (UKTM).
• Inform development of UKTM by reviewing
development of UK MARKAL over several years.
• Developed a formal methodology for this that we call
“model archaeology”.
Model archaeology
• Quantitatively examine the balance and evolution of
energy system models through the ex post analysis of
both model inputs and outputs using a series of
metrics.
• These metrics help us to understand how models are
developed and used and are a powerful tool for
effectively targeting future model improvements.
Input metrics
1. Model paradigm and equations
2. Spatial and temporal dimensions
3. Energy system structure (model topology)
4. Modelled system constraints
5. Parameter data
Case study of UK MARKAL
Model paradigm and equations
• UK MARKAL always run using the ANSWER interface.
• No changes to the underlying equations within the
MARKAL source code.
• Several UK MARKAL variants developed:
– Hybrid macro research version.
– Elastic energy service demands since v3.17.
– Stochastic version to examine perfect foresight.
Spatial and temporal dimensions
Spatial dimensions:
• Single region model in all production versions.
• Spatial hydrogen research version:
– nine UK demand regions, six supply points, and a set of 200
infrastructure development options for hydrogen pipelines.
• Two-region model that includes Scotland and Rest-of-the-UK.
Temporal dimensions:
• Runs to 2070 in earlier versions and 2050 from v3.25 onwards.
• 3 seasons and 2 intraday timeslides in production versions.
• 4 seasons and 5 intra-day time-slices in a higher-resolution version.
Energy system structure (model
topology)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Numberoflinks/techs,comms,
demands
Links
Techs, comms, demands
Techs, comms, demands excluding dummy techs
Diverse technology statistics
Sector
Technologies
Fraction from
v2.1 in v3.26
Tech
diversity/Mte
CO2 emissions
Tech diversity/TJ
equivalent
demandv2.1 v3.26
Resources 117 130 97% - -
Electricity 94 140 81% 0.9 -
Process 114 111 78% 2.8 -
Residential 92 123 93% 1.4 66.3
Service 36 52 100% 2.8 53.3
Industry 98 93 94% 1.3 46.3
Transport 110 117 84% 1.0 65.2
Total 661 766 89% 1.5 57.5
Change in the number of diverse
technologies between model versions
Version Year
Electricity Process Residential Transport
+ – + – + – + –
v2.7 2007 0% –0% 0% –0% 0% –0% 0% –0%
v3.17 2008 40% –15% 17% –22% 37% –82% 19% –16%
v3.22 2009 2% –2% 2% –1% 135% –4% 0% –0%
v3.25 2010 10% –1% 3% –1% 0% –0% 4% –0%
v3.26 2011 9% –1% 0% –0% 4% –0% 1% –2%
Number of user constraints
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Constraints
Number of constraint changes
(additions + deletions)
Constraints
in v3.26
Total number of additions and deletions
v2.7 v3.17 v3.22 v3.25 v3.26
Resource 3 0 0 0 0 0
Electricity 24 0 11 1 10 3
Process 3 0 2 0 3 0
Residential 23 0 13 14 4 0
Service 6 0 1 0 2 0
Industry 9 0 0 0 2 0
Transport 42 0 23 0 6 0
Total 110 0 50 15 27 3
Parameter data
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26
Parameterchanges
Cost changes
Flow changes
Bound changes
Technologies with parameter changes
Total number of parameter changes
v2.7 v3.17 v3.22 v3.25 v3.26
Resource 0% 34% 0% 23% 40%
Electricity 18% 19% 32% 19% 39%
Process 1% 6% 0% 5% 0%
Residential 11% 27% 21% 4% 30%
Service 56% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Industry 0% 0% 1% 3% 0%
Transport 0% 11% 0% 35% 25%
Total 7% 15% 9% 15% 23%
Overall technology changes by sector
Sector
Number of technologies Fraction of v2.1 techs
subsequently
changed
Techs in v3.26 added
or changed since
v2.1v2.1 v3.26
Resources 117 130 51% 57%
Electricity 134 177 75% 83%
Process 123 122 15% 32%
Residential 98 131 99% 99%
Service 40 56 58% 71%
Industry 133 128 3% 4%
Transport 540 511 30% 45%
Total 1185 1255 47% 55%
Evolution of UK MARKAL
We examined publications using the model:
• Stage 1: Initial development
• Stage 2: Experimentation and incremental
improvement
• Stage 3: Reflection
• Stage 4: Maturity and reimagining
Stage 1: initial development
EWP 03 Energy
Review
EWP 07
CCC report
-80% GHG
legislation
2000 2008
MARKAL M-Macro M-ED
RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs
UKERC
Model
type
Funding
Rapid simple
structured model
development
Major 2 year UKERC
programme; enhanced
UK model with Macro
extension
Elastic demand model
development with
major CCC and UKERC
scenarios
20092007
LCTP
Stochastic model, Global
TIMES model, UKTM
variants
TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES
CCC
Budgets
1-4
2005 2010-
RCEP
-60% CO2
target
2003 2012-14
Carbon
plan
M-Stochastic
2015
UKTM
wholeSEM
Carbon
budget 5
Stage 2: Experimentation and incremental
improvement
EWP 03 Energy
Review
EWP 07
CCC report
-80% GHG
legislation
2000 2008
MARKAL M-Macro M-ED
RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs
UKERC
Model
type
Funding
Rapid simple
structured model
development
Major 2 year UKERC
programme; enhanced
UK model with Macro
extension
Elastic demand model
development with
major CCC and UKERC
scenarios
20092007
LCTP
Stochastic model, Global
TIMES model, UKTM
variants
TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES
CCC
Budgets
1-4
2005 2010-
RCEP
-60% CO2
target
2003 2012-14
Carbon
plan
M-Stochastic
2015
UKTM
wholeSEM
Carbon
budget 5
Stage 3: Reflection
EWP 03 Energy
Review
EWP 07
CCC report
-80% GHG
legislation
2000 2008
MARKAL M-Macro M-ED
RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs
UKERC
Model
type
Funding
Rapid simple
structured model
development
Major 2 year UKERC
programme; enhanced
UK model with Macro
extension
Elastic demand model
development with
major CCC and UKERC
scenarios
20092007
LCTP
Stochastic model, Global
TIMES model, UKTM
variants
TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES
CCC
Budgets
1-4
2005 2010-
RCEP
-60% CO2
target
2003 2012-14
Carbon
plan
M-Stochastic
2015
UKTM
wholeSEM
Carbon
budget 5
Stage 4: Maturity and reimagining
EWP 03 Energy
Review
EWP 07
CCC report
-80% GHG
legislation
2000 2008
MARKAL M-Macro M-ED
RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs
UKERC
Model
type
Funding
Rapid simple
structured model
development
Major 2 year UKERC
programme; enhanced
UK model with Macro
extension
Elastic demand model
development with
major CCC and UKERC
scenarios
20092007
LCTP
Stochastic model, Global
TIMES model, UKTM
variants
TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES
CCC
Budgets
1-4
2005 2010-
RCEP
-60% CO2
target
2003 2012-14
Carbon
plan
M-Stochastic
2015
UKTM
wholeSEM
Carbon
budget 5
Output metrics
• Test each model with the same two/three scenarios:
– Reference scenario with no emission cuts
– 80% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050
– 80% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050 with elastic
demands, for model versions 3.xx with this capability
Primary energy consumption in 2050
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
Primaryenergyconsumption(PJ)
No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint
Imported electricity
Nuclear electricity
Coal
Refined oil
Oil
Natural Gas
Biomass and waste
Renewable electricity
Final energy consumption in 2050
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
Finalenergyconsumption(PJ)
No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint
Non-energy
use
Transport
Services
Residential
Industry
Agriculture
Electricity generation in 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
Electricitygeneration(TWh)
No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint
Storage
Imports
Other
Marine
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas
Coal CCS
Cofiring CCS
Coal
Consumption of biomass products in 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
Bio-productsdestination(PJ)
No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint
Transport
Service
Residential
Industry
Hydrogen
Electricity
Biomethane
Transport fuel consumption in 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
Transportfuelconsumption(TWh)
No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint
Ethanol
Bio-diesel
Jet fuel
Hydrogen
Electricity
Diesel
Petrol
Residential heat generation in 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
2.1
2.7
3.17
3.22
3.25
3.26
Residentialheatgeneration(PJ)
No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint
Solar
Biomass
Natural gas
Heat
Coal
Electricity
Oil
CO2 emissions in 2050
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26
MarginalcostofCO2(£/t)
CO2emisssions(Mt)
Other Emissions
Transport
Services
Residential
Industry
Hydrogen
Electricity
Agriculture
Upstream
Marginal CO2 price
Relationships between input and
output metrics
1. Impact of model changes within sectors on these
outputs
2. Impact of model changes between versions
Need to convert outputs in graphs into indices
Relationships between input and
output metrics
• Primary and final energy consumptions do not
greatly change between most versions.
• Large variations within some individual sectors.
• Weak links between number of changes to input data
and changes to outputs for most sectors.
• All types of model changes (topology, constraints,
parameters) strongly influence the outputs.
Conclusions from UK MARKAL
• UK MARKAL development has been influenced by the
interests of the UK government and the research projects
funding model development.
• Energy system costs tend to increase in subsequent model
versions.
• There is clear evidence of a strategy to balance model
complexity and accuracy over time.
• Model archaeology compels the modeller to perform a
systematic review of the model and the modelling process,
and can improve the transparency of research model studies.
Postscript: TIAM-UCL technologies
(early results)
Topology changes (technologies)
Version Year
Electricity Residential Industry Transport
+ – + – + – + –
v2012 2012 38% 0 0 0 0 0 21% 66%
v3.0.7 2013 23% -35% 2% -1% 3% -3% 30% -100%
v4.0.4 2015 37% -30% 1% -2% 3% -3% 237% -100%
v4.1.0 2016 31% -34% 2% -4% 3% -3% 42% -100%
Postscript: TIAM-UCL (early results)
Number of links, techs & comms
TIAM-UCL parameter changes
Thank you for
listening
http://link.springer.com/article/
10.1007/s10666-014-9417-
3/fulltext.html

Más contenido relacionado

Was ist angesagt?

Linking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathways
Linking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathwaysLinking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathways
Linking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathwaysIEA-ETSAP
 
Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...
Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...
Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...IEA-ETSAP
 
Update on Australian TIMES Model Development
Update on Australian TIMES Model DevelopmentUpdate on Australian TIMES Model Development
Update on Australian TIMES Model DevelopmentIEA-ETSAP
 
Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...
Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...
Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...IEA-ETSAP
 
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for UkraineEconomic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for UkraineIEA-ETSAP
 
Hydrogen and power system
Hydrogen and power systemHydrogen and power system
Hydrogen and power systemIEA-ETSAP
 
Introducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling Framework
Introducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling FrameworkIntroducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling Framework
Introducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling FrameworkIEA-ETSAP
 
Sustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of Mauritius
Sustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of MauritiusSustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of Mauritius
Sustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of MauritiusIEA-ETSAP
 
Policy development using Scottish TIMES
Policy development using Scottish TIMESPolicy development using Scottish TIMES
Policy development using Scottish TIMESIEA-ETSAP
 
Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...
Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...
Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modellingOverview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modellingIEA-ETSAP
 
Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...
Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...
Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...IEA-ETSAP
 
Second Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and Results
Second Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and ResultsSecond Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and Results
Second Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and ResultsIEA-ETSAP
 
Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...
Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...
Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...IEA-ETSAP
 
A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...
A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...
A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...IEA-ETSAP
 
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...IEA-ETSAP
 
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK
Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UKImpact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK
Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UKIEA-ETSAP
 
Results of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems
Results of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy SystemsResults of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems
Results of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy SystemsIEA-ETSAP
 
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES modelGrid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES modelIEA-ETSAP
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Linking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathways
Linking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathwaysLinking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathways
Linking TIAM and KLEM: Economic Impacts of WB2D mitigation pathways
 
Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...
Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...
Connecting the gaps: Energy demand projections and the disparity between curr...
 
Update on Australian TIMES Model Development
Update on Australian TIMES Model DevelopmentUpdate on Australian TIMES Model Development
Update on Australian TIMES Model Development
 
Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...
Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...
Development of 2050’s national long-term energy plans for carbon neutrality t...
 
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for UkraineEconomic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine
 
Hydrogen and power system
Hydrogen and power systemHydrogen and power system
Hydrogen and power system
 
Introducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling Framework
Introducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling FrameworkIntroducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling Framework
Introducing Electricity Dispatchability Features in TIMES modelling Framework
 
Sustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of Mauritius
Sustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of MauritiusSustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of Mauritius
Sustainable energy and climate mitigation pathways in the Republic of Mauritius
 
Policy development using Scottish TIMES
Policy development using Scottish TIMESPolicy development using Scottish TIMES
Policy development using Scottish TIMES
 
Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...
Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...
Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term ...
 
Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modellingOverview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
 
Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...
Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...
Introducing external costs for Local Atmospheric Pollution in TIAM-MACRO to s...
 
Second Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and Results
Second Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and ResultsSecond Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and Results
Second Ukrainian NDC to the Paris Agreement: Modelling Approach and Results
 
Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...
Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...
Incorporating Homeowners’ Preferences for Heating Systems in the UK TIMES wit...
 
A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...
A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...
A Generalized Equilibrium Approach to Balance the Residual Abatements Resulti...
 
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by...
 
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
Energy and environmental impacts of biomass use in the residential Sector: a ...
 
Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK
Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UKImpact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK
Impact of technology uncertainty on future low-carbon pathways in the UK
 
Results of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems
Results of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy SystemsResults of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems
Results of the Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems
 
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES modelGrid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
Grid Expansion under high VRE share using Grid-featured Japan TIMES model
 

Andere mochten auch

Second ETSAP book
Second ETSAP book Second ETSAP book
Second ETSAP book IEA-ETSAP
 
JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook
JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlookJRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook
JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlookIEA-ETSAP
 
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEUEvaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEUIEA-ETSAP
 
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countriesValue of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countriesIEA-ETSAP
 
Analysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMES
Analysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMESAnalysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMES
Analysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMESIEA-ETSAP
 
Addressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo Analysis
Addressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo AnalysisAddressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo Analysis
Addressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo AnalysisIEA-ETSAP
 
TIMES Migration Feasibility Study
TIMES Migration Feasibility StudyTIMES Migration Feasibility Study
TIMES Migration Feasibility StudyIEA-ETSAP
 
British Museum / Institute of Archaeology Seminars
British Museum / Institute of Archaeology SeminarsBritish Museum / Institute of Archaeology Seminars
British Museum / Institute of Archaeology SeminarsThames Discovery Programme
 
'E-Science and Archaeology'
'E-Science and Archaeology''E-Science and Archaeology'
'E-Science and Archaeology'Stuart Dunn
 
Developing a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelines
Developing a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelinesDeveloping a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelines
Developing a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelinesariadnenetwork
 
Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016
Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016
Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016Jennifer Beauloye
 
Integrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the Lab
Integrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the LabIntegrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the Lab
Integrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the LabAshley M. Richter
 
Alberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the Iberians
Alberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the IberiansAlberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the Iberians
Alberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the Iberiansariadnenetwork
 
Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...
Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...
Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...ariadnenetwork
 
Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...
Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...
Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...IEA-ETSAP
 
Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses
Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analysesPower systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses
Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analysesIEA-ETSAP
 
Emission impacts of marginal electricity demand in France
Emission impacts of marginal electricity demand in FranceEmission impacts of marginal electricity demand in France
Emission impacts of marginal electricity demand in FranceIEA-ETSAP
 
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...IEA-ETSAP
 
TIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interface
TIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interfaceTIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interface
TIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interfaceIEA-ETSAP
 
Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...
Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...
Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...IEA-ETSAP
 

Andere mochten auch (20)

Second ETSAP book
Second ETSAP book Second ETSAP book
Second ETSAP book
 
JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook
JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlookJRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook
JRC-EU-TIMES updates and outlook
 
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEUEvaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
 
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countriesValue of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
 
Analysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMES
Analysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMESAnalysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMES
Analysis of the role of energy storages in Belgium and Netherlands with TIMES
 
Addressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo Analysis
Addressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo AnalysisAddressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo Analysis
Addressing Uncertainty in TIMES Using Monte Carlo Analysis
 
TIMES Migration Feasibility Study
TIMES Migration Feasibility StudyTIMES Migration Feasibility Study
TIMES Migration Feasibility Study
 
British Museum / Institute of Archaeology Seminars
British Museum / Institute of Archaeology SeminarsBritish Museum / Institute of Archaeology Seminars
British Museum / Institute of Archaeology Seminars
 
'E-Science and Archaeology'
'E-Science and Archaeology''E-Science and Archaeology'
'E-Science and Archaeology'
 
Developing a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelines
Developing a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelinesDeveloping a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelines
Developing a research data centre for Germany: IANUS and its IT-guidelines
 
Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016
Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016
Alexy Karenowska, from the Institute for Digital Archaeology #BeMuseum2016
 
Integrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the Lab
Integrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the LabIntegrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the Lab
Integrated Technology for Archaeological Imaging in the Field and in the Lab
 
Alberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the Iberians
Alberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the IberiansAlberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the Iberians
Alberto Sánchez Vizcaíno - Culture of the Iberians
 
Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...
Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...
Archaeological Training in an Open Access World: Lessons from the REWARD Proj...
 
Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...
Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...
Enhancing the TIMES New User Experience - Second Step, a VEDA TIMES-Starter M...
 
Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses
Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analysesPower systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses
Power systems reliability assessment in prospective analyses
 
Emission impacts of marginal electricity demand in France
Emission impacts of marginal electricity demand in FranceEmission impacts of marginal electricity demand in France
Emission impacts of marginal electricity demand in France
 
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
Impacts of Czech brown coal mines enlargement: assessment by energy model TIM...
 
TIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interface
TIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interfaceTIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interface
TIMES-GTAP soft-link methodology and interface
 
Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...
Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...
Analysis of the relative roles of supply-side and demand-side measures in tac...
 

Ähnlich wie Model archaeology

Michel Sacotte - Schneider Electric
Michel Sacotte - Schneider ElectricMichel Sacotte - Schneider Electric
Michel Sacotte - Schneider Electriccwiemeexpo
 
Copper's Contribution to Combat Climate Change
Copper's Contribution to Combat Climate ChangeCopper's Contribution to Combat Climate Change
Copper's Contribution to Combat Climate ChangeLeonardo ENERGY
 
Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne
Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-BretagneIntégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne
Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-BretagneThearkvalais
 
IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...
IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...
IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...IEA DSM Implementing Agreement (IA)
 
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3
Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3
Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3Minera Alumbrera YMAD - UTE
 
Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20
Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20
Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20Stefan Larsson
 
Green Energy From Heat - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)
Green Energy From Heat  - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)Green Energy From Heat  - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)
Green Energy From Heat - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)jamietpe
 
Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...
Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...
Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...Société Française d'Energie Nucléaire
 
OPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLING
OPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLINGOPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLING
OPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLINGiQHub
 
Engineering the power system of the future
Engineering the power system of the futureEngineering the power system of the future
Engineering the power system of the futureemmaroche
 
Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP market
Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP marketDrivers and Barriers in the current CSP market
Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP marketLeonardo ENERGY
 
IRJET - Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...
IRJET -  	  Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...IRJET -  	  Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...
IRJET - Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...IRJET Journal
 
"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned
"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned
"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learnedIEA-ETSAP
 
Energy Efficiency: A kenya power perspective
Energy Efficiency: A kenya power perspectiveEnergy Efficiency: A kenya power perspective
Energy Efficiency: A kenya power perspectiveACX
 

Ähnlich wie Model archaeology (20)

Michel Sacotte - Schneider Electric
Michel Sacotte - Schneider ElectricMichel Sacotte - Schneider Electric
Michel Sacotte - Schneider Electric
 
Copper's Contribution to Combat Climate Change
Copper's Contribution to Combat Climate ChangeCopper's Contribution to Combat Climate Change
Copper's Contribution to Combat Climate Change
 
Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne
Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-BretagneIntégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne
Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne
 
IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...
IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...
IEA DSM Task 17: Integration of DSM, DG, RES and ES – Outcome of Phase 1 and ...
 
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...
Modelling global macroeconomic impacts of a carbon constrained energy system ...
 
Transformers
TransformersTransformers
Transformers
 
KEPCO's Demand Side Management Programs
KEPCO's Demand Side Management ProgramsKEPCO's Demand Side Management Programs
KEPCO's Demand Side Management Programs
 
Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI
Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRICreating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI
Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI
 
Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3
Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3
Copper combat climate_change_webinar_april_11_v3
 
Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20
Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20
Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20
 
Techno-economic assessment and global sensitivity analysis for biomass-based ...
Techno-economic assessment and global sensitivity analysis for biomass-based ...Techno-economic assessment and global sensitivity analysis for biomass-based ...
Techno-economic assessment and global sensitivity analysis for biomass-based ...
 
Green Energy From Heat - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)
Green Energy From Heat  - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)Green Energy From Heat  - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)
Green Energy From Heat - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)
 
Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...
Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...
Ron CAMERON Head of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Development Division (Atoms for the ...
 
OPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLING
OPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLINGOPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLING
OPTIMIZING BATTERY END-OF-LIFE BY STATIONARY APPLICATIONS AND RECYCLING
 
Res evolution italy_gse
Res evolution italy_gseRes evolution italy_gse
Res evolution italy_gse
 
Engineering the power system of the future
Engineering the power system of the futureEngineering the power system of the future
Engineering the power system of the future
 
Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP market
Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP marketDrivers and Barriers in the current CSP market
Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP market
 
IRJET - Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...
IRJET -  	  Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...IRJET -  	  Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...
IRJET - Recovery of Energy from Exhaust Air of Textile Industry with the ...
 
"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned
"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned
"Taking on TIAM" a new user´s experience and lessons learned
 
Energy Efficiency: A kenya power perspective
Energy Efficiency: A kenya power perspectiveEnergy Efficiency: A kenya power perspective
Energy Efficiency: A kenya power perspective
 

Mehr von IEA-ETSAP

Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionVariable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionIEA-ETSAP
 
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsThe Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsIEA-ETSAP
 
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transitionThe role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transitionIEA-ETSAP
 
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...IEA-ETSAP
 
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...IEA-ETSAP
 
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...IEA-ETSAP
 
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapPresentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapIEA-ETSAP
 
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogenFlexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogenIEA-ETSAP
 
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibilityBioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibilityIEA-ETSAP
 
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCPReframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCPIEA-ETSAP
 
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...IEA-ETSAP
 
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...IEA-ETSAP
 
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...IEA-ETSAP
 
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop TurinEnergy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop TurinIEA-ETSAP
 
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiencesIntegrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiencesIEA-ETSAP
 
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMRUpdates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMRIEA-ETSAP
 
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP GroupEnergy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP GroupIEA-ETSAP
 
Applying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the futureApplying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the futureIEA-ETSAP
 
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...IEA-ETSAP
 
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...IEA-ETSAP
 

Mehr von IEA-ETSAP (20)

Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's TransitionVariable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
Variable Renewable Energy in China's Transition
 
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuelsThe Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels
 
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transitionThe role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
 
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: prog...
 
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenario...
 
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
Optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for both climate change mit...
 
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapPresentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
 
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogenFlexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
Flexibility with renewable(low-carbon) hydrogen
 
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibilityBioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
Bioenergy in energy system models with flexibility
 
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCPReframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
Reframing flexibility beyond power - IEA Bioenergy TCP
 
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
Decarbonization of heating in the buildings sector: efficiency first vs low-c...
 
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
The Regionalization Tool: spatial representation of TIMES-BE output data in i...
 
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European...
 
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop TurinEnergy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin
 
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiencesIntegrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
Integrated Energy and Climate plans: approaches, practices and experiences
 
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMRUpdates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
Updates on Veda provided by Amit Kanudia from KanORS-EMR
 
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP GroupEnergy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
Energy system modeling activities in the MAHTEP Group
 
Applying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the futureApplying science fiction to approach the future
Applying science fiction to approach the future
 
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
Will it leak?: Discussions of leakage risk from subsurface storage of carbon ...
 
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
Long-Term Decarbonization Pathways In Emerging Economies: Insights From 12 Mo...
 

Último

Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1
Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1
Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1bengalurutug
 
Data Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potx
Data Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potxData Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potx
Data Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potxEmmanuel Dauda
 
Unleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IM
Unleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IMUnleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IM
Unleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IMMarco Wobben
 
TCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI Pipelines
TCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI PipelinesTCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI Pipelines
TCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI PipelinesTimothy Spann
 
Neo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdf
Neo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdfNeo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdf
Neo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdfNeo4j
 
Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...
Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...
Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...Neo4j
 
Using DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data Warehouse
Using DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data WarehouseUsing DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data Warehouse
Using DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data WarehouseThinkInnovation
 
Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...
Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...
Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...ferisulianta.com
 
Paul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdf
Paul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdfPaul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdf
Paul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdfdcphostmaster
 
The market for cross-border mortgages in Europe
The market for cross-border mortgages in EuropeThe market for cross-border mortgages in Europe
The market for cross-border mortgages in Europe321k
 
How to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product Development
How to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product DevelopmentHow to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product Development
How to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product DevelopmentAggregage
 
Neo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdf
Neo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdfNeo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdf
Neo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdfNeo4j
 
2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits
2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits
2024 Build Generative AI for Non-ProfitsTimothy Spann
 
Data Collection from Social Media Platforms
Data Collection from Social Media PlatformsData Collection from Social Media Platforms
Data Collection from Social Media PlatformsMahmoud Yasser
 
Understanding the Impact of video length on student performance
Understanding the Impact of video length on student performanceUnderstanding the Impact of video length on student performance
Understanding the Impact of video length on student performancePrithaVashisht1
 
Microeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdf
Microeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdfMicroeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdf
Microeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdfmxlos0
 
Empowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded Analytics
Empowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded AnalyticsEmpowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded Analytics
Empowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded AnalyticsGain Insights
 
Air Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdf
Air Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdfAir Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdf
Air Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdfJasonBoboKyaw
 
PPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfgggg
PPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfggggPPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfgggg
PPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfggggbhadratanusenapati1
 

Último (20)

Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1
Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1
Bengaluru Tableau UG event- 2nd March 2024 Q1
 
Data Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potx
Data Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potxData Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potx
Data Analytics Fundamentals: data analytics types.potx
 
Unleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IM
Unleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IMUnleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IM
Unleashing Datas Potential - Mastering Precision with FCO-IM
 
TCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI Pipelines
TCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI PipelinesTCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI Pipelines
TCFPro24 Building Real-Time Generative AI Pipelines
 
Neo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdf
Neo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdfNeo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdf
Neo4j_Jesus Barrasa_The Art of the Possible with Graph.pptx.pdf
 
Target_Company_Data_breach_2013_110million
Target_Company_Data_breach_2013_110millionTarget_Company_Data_breach_2013_110million
Target_Company_Data_breach_2013_110million
 
Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...
Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...
Deloitte+RedCross_Talk to your data with Knowledge-enriched Generative AI.ppt...
 
Using DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data Warehouse
Using DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data WarehouseUsing DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data Warehouse
Using DAX & Time-based Analysis in Data Warehouse
 
Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...
Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...
Prediction Of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Lstm, Svm And Polynomial Regression...
 
Paul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdf
Paul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdfPaul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdf
Paul Martin (Gartner) - Show Me the AI Money.pdf
 
The market for cross-border mortgages in Europe
The market for cross-border mortgages in EuropeThe market for cross-border mortgages in Europe
The market for cross-border mortgages in Europe
 
How to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product Development
How to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product DevelopmentHow to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product Development
How to Build an Experimentation Culture for Data-Driven Product Development
 
Neo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdf
Neo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdfNeo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdf
Neo4j Graph Summit 2024 Workshop - EMEA - Breda_and_Munchen.pdf
 
2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits
2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits
2024 Build Generative AI for Non-Profits
 
Data Collection from Social Media Platforms
Data Collection from Social Media PlatformsData Collection from Social Media Platforms
Data Collection from Social Media Platforms
 
Understanding the Impact of video length on student performance
Understanding the Impact of video length on student performanceUnderstanding the Impact of video length on student performance
Understanding the Impact of video length on student performance
 
Microeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdf
Microeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdfMicroeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdf
Microeconomic Group Presentation Apple.pdf
 
Empowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded Analytics
Empowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded AnalyticsEmpowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded Analytics
Empowering Decisions A Guide to Embedded Analytics
 
Air Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdf
Air Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdfAir Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdf
Air Con Energy Rating Info411 Presentation.pdf
 
PPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfgggg
PPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfggggPPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfgggg
PPT for Presiding Officer.pptxvvdffdfgggg
 

Model archaeology

  • 1. Model archaeology Paul E. Dodds UCL Energy Institute, University College London Presented at the 70th IEA ETSAP workshop, Madrid, on 17 November 2016
  • 2. Introduction • Energy system models have opaque structures – changes between model versions? – extent of changes described in research papers. • We wanted to develop a UK TIMES Model (UKTM). • Inform development of UKTM by reviewing development of UK MARKAL over several years. • Developed a formal methodology for this that we call “model archaeology”.
  • 3. Model archaeology • Quantitatively examine the balance and evolution of energy system models through the ex post analysis of both model inputs and outputs using a series of metrics. • These metrics help us to understand how models are developed and used and are a powerful tool for effectively targeting future model improvements.
  • 4. Input metrics 1. Model paradigm and equations 2. Spatial and temporal dimensions 3. Energy system structure (model topology) 4. Modelled system constraints 5. Parameter data
  • 5. Case study of UK MARKAL
  • 6. Model paradigm and equations • UK MARKAL always run using the ANSWER interface. • No changes to the underlying equations within the MARKAL source code. • Several UK MARKAL variants developed: – Hybrid macro research version. – Elastic energy service demands since v3.17. – Stochastic version to examine perfect foresight.
  • 7. Spatial and temporal dimensions Spatial dimensions: • Single region model in all production versions. • Spatial hydrogen research version: – nine UK demand regions, six supply points, and a set of 200 infrastructure development options for hydrogen pipelines. • Two-region model that includes Scotland and Rest-of-the-UK. Temporal dimensions: • Runs to 2070 in earlier versions and 2050 from v3.25 onwards. • 3 seasons and 2 intraday timeslides in production versions. • 4 seasons and 5 intra-day time-slices in a higher-resolution version.
  • 8. Energy system structure (model topology) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Numberoflinks/techs,comms, demands Links Techs, comms, demands Techs, comms, demands excluding dummy techs
  • 9. Diverse technology statistics Sector Technologies Fraction from v2.1 in v3.26 Tech diversity/Mte CO2 emissions Tech diversity/TJ equivalent demandv2.1 v3.26 Resources 117 130 97% - - Electricity 94 140 81% 0.9 - Process 114 111 78% 2.8 - Residential 92 123 93% 1.4 66.3 Service 36 52 100% 2.8 53.3 Industry 98 93 94% 1.3 46.3 Transport 110 117 84% 1.0 65.2 Total 661 766 89% 1.5 57.5
  • 10. Change in the number of diverse technologies between model versions Version Year Electricity Process Residential Transport + – + – + – + – v2.7 2007 0% –0% 0% –0% 0% –0% 0% –0% v3.17 2008 40% –15% 17% –22% 37% –82% 19% –16% v3.22 2009 2% –2% 2% –1% 135% –4% 0% –0% v3.25 2010 10% –1% 3% –1% 0% –0% 4% –0% v3.26 2011 9% –1% 0% –0% 4% –0% 1% –2%
  • 11. Number of user constraints 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Constraints
  • 12. Number of constraint changes (additions + deletions) Constraints in v3.26 Total number of additions and deletions v2.7 v3.17 v3.22 v3.25 v3.26 Resource 3 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity 24 0 11 1 10 3 Process 3 0 2 0 3 0 Residential 23 0 13 14 4 0 Service 6 0 1 0 2 0 Industry 9 0 0 0 2 0 Transport 42 0 23 0 6 0 Total 110 0 50 15 27 3
  • 13. Parameter data 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Parameterchanges Cost changes Flow changes Bound changes
  • 14. Technologies with parameter changes Total number of parameter changes v2.7 v3.17 v3.22 v3.25 v3.26 Resource 0% 34% 0% 23% 40% Electricity 18% 19% 32% 19% 39% Process 1% 6% 0% 5% 0% Residential 11% 27% 21% 4% 30% Service 56% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industry 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% Transport 0% 11% 0% 35% 25% Total 7% 15% 9% 15% 23%
  • 15. Overall technology changes by sector Sector Number of technologies Fraction of v2.1 techs subsequently changed Techs in v3.26 added or changed since v2.1v2.1 v3.26 Resources 117 130 51% 57% Electricity 134 177 75% 83% Process 123 122 15% 32% Residential 98 131 99% 99% Service 40 56 58% 71% Industry 133 128 3% 4% Transport 540 511 30% 45% Total 1185 1255 47% 55%
  • 16. Evolution of UK MARKAL We examined publications using the model: • Stage 1: Initial development • Stage 2: Experimentation and incremental improvement • Stage 3: Reflection • Stage 4: Maturity and reimagining
  • 17. Stage 1: initial development EWP 03 Energy Review EWP 07 CCC report -80% GHG legislation 2000 2008 MARKAL M-Macro M-ED RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs UKERC Model type Funding Rapid simple structured model development Major 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with Macro extension Elastic demand model development with major CCC and UKERC scenarios 20092007 LCTP Stochastic model, Global TIMES model, UKTM variants TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES CCC Budgets 1-4 2005 2010- RCEP -60% CO2 target 2003 2012-14 Carbon plan M-Stochastic 2015 UKTM wholeSEM Carbon budget 5
  • 18. Stage 2: Experimentation and incremental improvement EWP 03 Energy Review EWP 07 CCC report -80% GHG legislation 2000 2008 MARKAL M-Macro M-ED RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs UKERC Model type Funding Rapid simple structured model development Major 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with Macro extension Elastic demand model development with major CCC and UKERC scenarios 20092007 LCTP Stochastic model, Global TIMES model, UKTM variants TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES CCC Budgets 1-4 2005 2010- RCEP -60% CO2 target 2003 2012-14 Carbon plan M-Stochastic 2015 UKTM wholeSEM Carbon budget 5
  • 19. Stage 3: Reflection EWP 03 Energy Review EWP 07 CCC report -80% GHG legislation 2000 2008 MARKAL M-Macro M-ED RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs UKERC Model type Funding Rapid simple structured model development Major 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with Macro extension Elastic demand model development with major CCC and UKERC scenarios 20092007 LCTP Stochastic model, Global TIMES model, UKTM variants TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES CCC Budgets 1-4 2005 2010- RCEP -60% CO2 target 2003 2012-14 Carbon plan M-Stochastic 2015 UKTM wholeSEM Carbon budget 5
  • 20. Stage 4: Maturity and reimagining EWP 03 Energy Review EWP 07 CCC report -80% GHG legislation 2000 2008 MARKAL M-Macro M-ED RCUK, UK Government, CCC, Ofgem, NGOs UKERC Model type Funding Rapid simple structured model development Major 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with Macro extension Elastic demand model development with major CCC and UKERC scenarios 20092007 LCTP Stochastic model, Global TIMES model, UKTM variants TIAM-UCL, ETM-UCL, Scottish TIMES CCC Budgets 1-4 2005 2010- RCEP -60% CO2 target 2003 2012-14 Carbon plan M-Stochastic 2015 UKTM wholeSEM Carbon budget 5
  • 21. Output metrics • Test each model with the same two/three scenarios: – Reference scenario with no emission cuts – 80% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050 – 80% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050 with elastic demands, for model versions 3.xx with this capability
  • 22. Primary energy consumption in 2050 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Primaryenergyconsumption(PJ) No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint Imported electricity Nuclear electricity Coal Refined oil Oil Natural Gas Biomass and waste Renewable electricity
  • 23. Final energy consumption in 2050 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Finalenergyconsumption(PJ) No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint Non-energy use Transport Services Residential Industry Agriculture
  • 24. Electricity generation in 2050 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Electricitygeneration(TWh) No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint Storage Imports Other Marine Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas CCS Gas Coal CCS Cofiring CCS Coal
  • 25. Consumption of biomass products in 2050 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Bio-productsdestination(PJ) No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint Transport Service Residential Industry Hydrogen Electricity Biomethane
  • 26. Transport fuel consumption in 2050 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Transportfuelconsumption(TWh) No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint Ethanol Bio-diesel Jet fuel Hydrogen Electricity Diesel Petrol
  • 27. Residential heat generation in 2050 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 Residentialheatgeneration(PJ) No CO2 constraint With CO2 constraint Solar Biomass Natural gas Heat Coal Electricity Oil
  • 28. CO2 emissions in 2050 -100 0 100 200 300 400 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2.1 2.7 3.17 3.22 3.25 3.26 MarginalcostofCO2(£/t) CO2emisssions(Mt) Other Emissions Transport Services Residential Industry Hydrogen Electricity Agriculture Upstream Marginal CO2 price
  • 29. Relationships between input and output metrics 1. Impact of model changes within sectors on these outputs 2. Impact of model changes between versions Need to convert outputs in graphs into indices
  • 30. Relationships between input and output metrics • Primary and final energy consumptions do not greatly change between most versions. • Large variations within some individual sectors. • Weak links between number of changes to input data and changes to outputs for most sectors. • All types of model changes (topology, constraints, parameters) strongly influence the outputs.
  • 31. Conclusions from UK MARKAL • UK MARKAL development has been influenced by the interests of the UK government and the research projects funding model development. • Energy system costs tend to increase in subsequent model versions. • There is clear evidence of a strategy to balance model complexity and accuracy over time. • Model archaeology compels the modeller to perform a systematic review of the model and the modelling process, and can improve the transparency of research model studies.
  • 33. Topology changes (technologies) Version Year Electricity Residential Industry Transport + – + – + – + – v2012 2012 38% 0 0 0 0 0 21% 66% v3.0.7 2013 23% -35% 2% -1% 3% -3% 30% -100% v4.0.4 2015 37% -30% 1% -2% 3% -3% 237% -100% v4.1.0 2016 31% -34% 2% -4% 3% -3% 42% -100%
  • 34. Postscript: TIAM-UCL (early results) Number of links, techs & comms