Energy Policy Analysis TIMES-Starter Platform

DecisionWare Group LLC
Policy Analysis for
Energy, Economy and Environment
INTRODUCTION TO THE
VEDA TIMES-STARTER PLATFORM
Presented by
Gary Goldstein
June 17, 2018
Gothenburg, Sweden

TIMES-Starter Platform Basic Concept
• IEA-ETSAP has supported this innovative approach to developing new
national or regional energy systems models resulting in significantly
less development time and cost, and with improved model quality
• TIMES-Starter is a fully assembled, full-sector energy systems model
ready to be customized to a particular national or regional energy
system
• It comes equipped with a high-quality, peer-reviewed technology
characterization database sourced from USDOE, USEPA, and others
that can be customized to the country situation.
• It employs best modeling practices and strong naming conventions to
improve understandability and minimize errors.
• Includes results handling tools to improve analysis of model results
and dissemination to decision-makers.
Initial uses of the ANSWER-based TIMES-Starter were for the PMR in
Turkey, the IEA ETP team working with China ERI to implement TIMES-
China model, and Costa Rica with support from the World Bank to assist
with Assessing Climate Mitigation Pathways to Support INDC
Implementation. 2
Introduction to the VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform

TIMES-Starter Model Management
Platform
• Data is
assembled in
“linked” Excel
workbooks
• Managed by
VEDA-FE
• Submitted to
TIMES
(GAMS)
• Post-
processed by
VEDA-BE
• Analyzed via
the Analytics
graphing
workbook
3
Existing
Technology
Stock
New
Technology
Options
Demand
Projection
Base Year
Energy Balance
& Load Curve
Reference
Scenario
Guidance
Results
Analysis
Workbook
Base Year
Calibration
Check
Policy
Scenarios
Model
Management
Interface
VEDA-BE
Results
Management
TIMES
(GAMS)

Adapting the TIMES-Starter Model
1. Enter the base year energy balance and sector decomposition of fuel usage
2. RES tailored (semi-automatically) by eliminating commodities not relevant (or
add missing ones)
3. Adjust the timeslices (setup with 4-seasons, 3 time-of-days) and shape the
load curve
4. Provide prices for primary energy resources not found in the US9rT database
5. Run and refine the base year calibration
6. Adjust the demand drivers
7. Pick the future technologies to be allowed, and adjust cost, efficiency and
availability where necessary
8. Introduce all known planned new power plant and infrastructure builds
9. Introduce all physical limits on resources
10.Introduce all current policies
11.Adjust the Reference guidance mechanisms (rates of fuel switching, new
technology penetration, and device type shares)
12.Run and refine the Reference scenario
13.Do any necessary adjustments to the VEDA-BE Sets & Tables (and Analytics
workbook) for handling results
14.Tailor the standard policy scenarios provided and run
15.Refine model behavior
4

Data Assembly Templates
Folder Organization
5
• VEDAVEDA_ModelsVT-Starter is the root folder for the various input templates and result workbooks
o Energy Balance (EB) and LoadCalib are not loaded into VFE (nor is DependTable (not shown, see next slide))
o Base Year (BASE or BY) templates
o VFE SysSettings and BY_Trans setup files
• SubRES contains the new technologies (NTs);
• SupplXLS contains the User Constraints (UCs), and Scenario files, and
• ResultsXLS is where the Calibration, Policy Check and Run Results workbooks are found.
VT-Starter SubRES_TMPL
ResultsXLS
SuppXLS

Inter-dependencies
6
• The arrows show the dependency links between the workbooks, that is where a child
(dependent) links to its parent (source).
• In addition SysSettings VFE template needs to be updated if the time-slices are adjusted in the
Load Calibration workbook.
Existing Technology
Stock & Calibration (BY)
[VT_Starter_<sect>]
New Technologies
[SubRES_NT-<sect>]
Demand Projection
[VT_Starter_DEM]
Base Year Energy
Balance
[EB_Starter-VT(2015)]
Reference Guidance
[Scen_UC-<sect>/90]
Resource Supply
[VT_Starter_SUP]
Load Calibration
[LoadCalibration-
VTS]

Dependency Table
7
Linked Child
Templates
Parent/GrandParent Template Dependent Data
LoadCalibration_Simple EB_Starter-VT(2015) EB sector total electric consumption
VT_Starter_COM/RSD electric consumption by DEM
EB_Starter-VT(2015) LoadCalibration_Simple G_YRFR and COM_FR
VT_Starter_SUP EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, 1st year supply/com
VT_Starter_AGR EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR
VT_Starter_COM EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR
VT_Starter_IND EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR
VT_Starter_PP EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, EB PP input/output com&level
VT_Starter_RSD EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR
VT_Starter_TRN EB_Starter(2015) region, periods, $convert/unit, sector/desc, FEC/com, COM_FR
VT_Starter_DEM EB_Starter(2015) region, periods
VT_Starter_AGR/COM/IND/RSD/TRN 1st period UED/dem
SubRES_NT-AGR VT_Starter_AGR region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)
SubRES_NT-COM VT_Starter_COM region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)
SubRES_NT-IND VT_Starter_IND region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)
SubRES_NT-PP VT_Starter_PP region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)
SubRES_NT-RSD VT_Starter_RSD region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)
SubRES_NT-TRN VT_Starter_TRN region, periods, $convert/unit, SETUP(com/prc_types)
Scen_UC-AGR/90 VT_Starter_AGR region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD
Scen_UC-COM/90 VT_Starter_COM/SubRES_NT-COM region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD, name of HPs
Scen_UC-IND VT_Starter_IND region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD
Scen_UC-RSD/90 VT_Starter_RSD/SubRES_NT-RSD region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD, name of HPs
Scen_UC-TRN/90 VT_Starter_TRN region, periods, 1st period UED by DMD
Scen_<Alt-assumption> EB_Starter(2015)
region, periods --- using VFE ~FillTab to grab exising data when
needed
Scen_Pol-<policy>
VBE result tables (via copy/paste or
UpdXLS)
sector emission level / FEC
TIMES-Starter Template Dependencies
• These relationships are maintained in the Dependency Table workbook found in the VT-Starter folder.
• When a parent is updated all the dependent children SHOULD be updated as well (though it may be
the case that the actual change does not affect the linked data in a particular dependent workbook).

Workbook Organization
8
Worksheet Description
SETUP
Controls which commodities, process types, processes/devices are to be included in the model
according to the EB and Calibration sheets. Mapping of EPA-US9rT/other commodity/process
names to their TIMES-Starter equivalents, and grabbing of model periods, emission factors,
USD price conversion factors from the Energy Balance workbook.
EB Information for the Energy Balance workbook for the sector. [BYs only]
Calibration
The calculation sheet where the energy balance is apportioned and the initial year technology
stock calculated for each sector. [BYs only]
Commodities
Energy carriers, emissions, materials are defined by their name, description, units and set
memberships to be used in the rest of the sheets. These are controlled by the SETUP sheet in
terms of inclusion in the current instance of the model, or not.
Processes
Process technologies are defined by their name, description, units and set memberships to be
used in the rest of the sheets. These are in turn controlled by the SETUP sheet in terms of
inclusion in the current instance of the model, or not. [BY only, as the NT (SubRES) templates
have the declaration block on the same <sector> sheet as the data.]
CommData
A sheet with the data for commodities in the sector (mostly used for mapping sector emissions
to overall emissions and providing demand levels and load timings. [BY and Demand
templates only.]
ProcData_<sect>,
<sect> or <nature-of-
the-data>
One or more sheets with the data for all technologies in the sector. <sect> if only one sheet, and
<Nature-of-the-data> if multiple sheets are used to refer to distinct power plant or vehicle
types or specific industry subsectors. For the NT templates all process data must appear on a
single load sheet with a name corresponding to the sector (<sect>).
ProcData_XPRCs Processes that connect the upstream commodities with each of the other sectors.
EPA/DEA/PIEM/EC
currently
Data sheets from the EPA-US9rT/Danish Energy Agency/Pak-IEM/Energy Community-EE
databases (and perhaps other sources including but not limited to IEA, ETSAP eTech-DS, etc.)
providing the source values for the technology options.
UC-<sect>
Data for the user-defined constraints that “guide” the rate of fuel switching, technology type
choice, and advanced device/vehicle uptake.

National Energy Balance
9
The TIMES-Starter dynamically (re)configures, according to the entries in
the energy balance, to include the necessary supply, and conversion
processes and final energy commodities associated with each demand
sector.

RES Component Naming Conventions
10
Strict adherence to the naming conventions ensures that the VBE Sets & Tables
will remain correct and that the User Constraints will be properly formulated.
Demand Sectors

Starter RES Network: Gas Example
11
TIMES-Starter natural gas RES proceeds from multiple resource supply
options, thru pipeline(s), to sector

Establishing the Load Duration Curve
12
• Starts from the 8760 hour load curve
• Setup for 12 timeslices, 4 seasons (months) and 3 daytime (hour blocks)
• Timeslices may be adjusted, though with this (simple) workbook it is recommended to stay with 12 slices
• ETSAP has a sophisticated timeslice calculation utility if more detailed preparation of the load curve is
desired (see https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-projects)

Modeling Periods & TimeSlices
13
VFE Milestone Years facility
overseas setting the modeling
periods, stored in SysSettings (which
must align with those in the EB
• TimeSlices are established in the LoadCalibration workbook, then moved into the
EB_Starter for passing into the individual demand sector templates

Aligning Load & Source Data Sheets
14
TIMES-Starter technologies are aligned with their EPA equivalents via the Lookup Sheet/Technology pair,
which are set up on the SETUP sheet
Using the Row-1 attributes, a MATCH/VLOOKUP function is used to grab the source data, and applies
convert $ and other unit conversions (e.g., miles to kilometers) to populate the ProcData load sheets

Energy Supply
15
• Energy supply is described in terms of imports and domestic options for which a price and
optionally maximum annual and cumulative levels are provided.
• TIMES-Starter “seeds” the 1st period levels directly from the EB and sets the last period limit
based upon the growth ratio specified by the user on the SETUP sheets,
• Prices are taken from the IEA World Outlook, with any user provided scalers or overrides applied.

EB Sheet (for Power)
16
• Data is grabbed directly from the EB_Starter Energy Balance sheet for each of the main plant
categories (e.g., coal-fired electricity generation, gas-fired CHP, etc.)
• The Calibration tab (see slide) decomposes the fuel consumed by each plant category by
assigning a portion to individual plant types in that category (e.g., coal-steam, coal-IGCC, etc.)
• A cross-check ensures that the EB and Calibration align

SETUP Sheet (for Power)
17
• EPA US9rT database contains
a large number of power
plants types that are mapped
to their Starter equivalent
according to the source data
sheet where the plant
characterization is found
• Options are activated or
deactivated according to the
EB, where an “*” appears in
the 1st column if a commodity
is not used for electricity
generation, or the power plant
type is not found in the
country

Calibration Sheet (for Power)
18
• For each existing power plant category, the installed capacity, fuel input, efficiency and available
factor much be provided for each of the plant types that are to be modelled.
• The Base year capacity factor is calculated from the installed capacity and amount of electricity
produced. Future year availability factors can be higher.

VFE Load Sheet (for Power)
19
• MATCH/VLOOKUP functions are used to populate the power sector data from the source data
(green) or Calibration sheets (yellow)
• Checks are done to ensure blanks do not appear as 0s and trapping any Excel #errors
• Where necessary, unit conversion is done in the formulas

VFE Load Sheet (for Power XPRCs)
20
• Each sector is connected to the rest of the RES network by means of exchange (or XPRC)
processes which simply take the upstream energy carrier and rename it for the sector into which it
is flowing
• Inclusion or not of a particular XPRC is determined according to the SETUP sheet
• Sector level fuel-based emissions accounting is done via the XPRCs

Demand Sector CommData Sheet
21
• Data related to the 1st period energy service demand is loaded from the Calibration sheet
• Timeslices are grabbed from the EB_Starter Periods&Timeslices sheet according to the
sector
• Sector emission are aggregated to the system-wide CO2 eq. totals, by applying the GWP as
appropriate

Demand Preparation - Residential
22
• Demand drivers for each sector (often at the end-use service level), along with elasticities, determine
how quickly the sector demand grows, perhaps along with the saturation level/growth for some demands
• In the case of cooling and heating the rate of old/new building stock change and degree day
considerations are also factored in

Demand Projections
23
• 1st period demand levels are grabbed from each of the sector EB workbooks
• Sector experts can then review and comment on the resulting demand projections

User Guidance Constraints
24
• Constraints are introduced to have control over the rate of transition from the current fuels and
device/vehicle types and the penetration of new technologies.
• These constraints are used to limit the rate of change in the References scenario and need to be
relaxed under specific policy scenarios that impact these rates

VEDA-FE Model Management System
25
The VEDA-FE model management system oversees the Excel workbooks,
provides facilities for viewing via data in dynamic data cubes, presents RES
diagrams, organizes and submits model runs, and provides other advance
feature for working with TIMES

VEDA-BE Handles Results via Dynamic
Pivot Tables
26
VBE results handling system
allows user-defined Sets &
Tables to be assembled, then
viewed as dynamic pivot tables
that can be exported to Excel.

Calibration Check Workbook
27
The Calibration Check workbook cross-checks the 1st period model results to ensure that the
Energy Balance aligns and that the power sector operation is also replicated by the model.

Analytics Multi-case Comparison
Graphing & Metrics Workbook
2012$M %Difference GW %Difference
Base - v11 109,937 Base - v11 1.28
Renewable Electricity Share 109,874 -0.1% Renewable Electricity Share 1.21 94.7%
Limit Electricity Consumption 111,223 1.2% Limit Electricity Consumption 0.96 75.1%
Limit Electricity Generation 110,073 0.1% Limit Electricity Generation 1.07 83.9%
PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference
Base - v11 5,245 Base - v11 3,190
Renewable Electricity Share 5,226 -0.4% Renewable Electricity Share 2,907 -8.9%
Limit Electricity Consumption 5,322 1.5% Limit Electricity Consumption 2,472 -22.5%
Limit Electricity Generation 5,163 -1.6% Limit Electricity Generation 2,817 -11.7%
PJ %Difference 2012$M %Difference
Base - v11 21 Base - v11 50,163
Renewable Electricity Share 21 0.0% Renewable Electricity Share 49,997 -0.3%
Limit Electricity Consumption 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Consumption 52,462 4.6%
Limit Electricity Generation 21 0.0% Limit Electricity Generation 50,098 -0.1%
PJ %Difference kt %Difference
Base - v11 2,489 Base - v11 293,340
Renewable Electricity Share 2,485 -0.2% Renewable Electricity Share 278,965 -4.9%
Limit Electricity Consumption 2,673 7.4% Limit Electricity Consumption 288,736 -1.6%
Limit Electricity Generation 2,484 -0.2% Limit Electricity Generation 284,537 -3.0%
CO2 Emissions
Scenario
Fuel Expenditures
Scenario
Electrity Generation
Scenario
Final Energy Consumption
Scenario
Scenario
Primary Energy
Scenario
Electricity Investment
Scenario
System Cost
Scenario
Power Plant Builds
28
Results tables are exported & dynamically updated from VBE to the Analytics workbook,
where presentation & report quality tables & graphs are prepared automatically.

Model Results – Overview
29
An example set of policy scenarios are included to test the impact of possible
changes from the Reference scenario arising from typical policy measures.
These scenario files, with a leading prefix Scen_P-, are found in the SuppXLS
folder, and include scenarios that:
 Cap overall and/or sector GHG emissions, e.g., 25/50% below Baseline in
2030/50;
 A forced change in the absolute value of a Reference scenario result, e.g.
decrease in final energy consumption of 20% by a target year;
 A forced change in the share of a Reference scenario result, e.g., a target
share of 50% renewable electricity generation by a target year, and
 The introduction of a cost or tax on the system, e.g., imposing a price on
carbon emissions.

Model Results – Cost
30
The shift to more expensive improved devices result in increased
investment spending with a drop in expenditures for fuel.
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
CO2 Limit (-50% in
2050)
RE ELC (ramp to 50%
in 2050)
CO2 Tax ($100/t in
2050)
Difference from Ref with UC90
VAR
INV+
INV
FLO
FIX
ACT
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Ref with UC90 CO2 Limit (-50% in
2050)
RE ELC (ramp to 50%
in 2050)
CO2 Tax ($100/t in
2050)
2015$M
Total Discounted System Cost
VAR
INV+
INV
FLO
FIX
ACT

Model Results – Primary Energy
31
A dramatic move away from coal to more electricity from imports,
nuclear and renewables can be seen
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Ref with UC90 CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) RE ELC (ramp to 50% in 2050) CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050)
PJ
Supply - Total Primary
Renewables
Oil and Products
Nuclear
Gas
Electricity
Coal
Biofuels
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) RE ELC (ramp to 50% in 2050) CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050)
PJ
Renewables
Oil and Products
Nuclear
Gas
Electricity
Coal
Biofuels

Model Results – Electric Generation
32
Electricity generation shift away from coal to hydropower and other
renewables and in some cases new nuclear
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
Electric Generation (by Type)
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas-fired
Gas fired CHPs
Coal-fired
Coal fired CHPs
Biomass fired CHPs
Biofuel-fired
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) RE ELC (ramp to 50% in 2050) CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050)
PJ
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas-fired
Gas fired CHPs
Coal-fired
Coal fired CHPs
Biomass fired CHPs
Biofuel-fired

Model Results – New Power Plant
Builds
33
The change in plant types and investment timing of the various scenarios shows
the how the roles to be played by the different technologies is impacted by that
particular policy.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GW
Electric New Builds (by Type)
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas-fired
Gas fired CHPs
Coal-fired
Coal fired CHPs
Biomass fired CHPs
Biofuel-fired

Model Results – FEC by Fuel
34
The CO2Tax case forces a rather substantive shift away from direct
use of coal to more biomass and electricity.

Model Results – CO2 Emissions by Fuel
35
The substantial drop in CO2 emissions, particularly in the CO2Tax scenario,
is shown, driven by the overall reduction in the use of coal.

Model Results – Trend Snapshot
36
The variation from the current electricity generation mix to that in 2030 can be seen for
each scenario, where coal dominates in the Baseline but is curtailed in the CO2 runs.
Biofuel-fired,
564.3%
Biomass fired CHPs,
109.9%
Coal fired CHPs,
185.7%
Coal-fired, 743.5%
Gas fired CHPs,
334.0%
Gas-fired, 906.3%
Geothermal, 71.4%
Ref with UC90 2015
Biofuel-fired, 636.5%
Biomass fired CHPs,
202.7%
Coal fired CHPs,
184.7%
Coal-fired, 369.1%
Gas fired CHPs,
415.7%
Gas-fired, 993.2%
Geothermal, 94.6%
CO2 Limit (-50% in 2050) 2030
Biofuel-fired,
115.0%
Biomass fired CHPs,
199.7%
Coal fired CHPs,
84.2%
Coal-fired, 205.8%
Gas fired CHPs,
151.3%
Gas-fired, 367.5%
Geothermal, 38.6%
CO2 Tax ($100/t in 2050) 2030
Biofuel-fired,
406.9%
Biomass fired CHPs,
203.5%
Coal fired CHPs,
184.8%
Coal-fired, 1321.2%
Gas fired CHPs,
253.8%
Gas-fired, 616.3%
Geothermal, 74.2%
Ref with UC90 2030

VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform
Phase II Ideas – Augmenting VTS
• Replace the use of UC_COMPRD with PRC_MARK for the fuel and
device type share constraints
• Introduce the new VEDA Parametric Scenario mechanism
• Look into ways to remove the SubRES (NT) links to the BY templates
by means of the use of FilTab to control which future technologies
are needed
• Improve process representation in the Industry sector
• Advance the unit labelling so derived from information in the EB
workbook
• Consider having 1 instance of every process available in US9rT in VTS
so that when EB changes & processes aren’t wanted they appear
commented out (for deletion) as opposed to having to add new
process instances [Unless VBA functionality added, see next slide]
• Setup “parallel” 2030 AXLS that uses 2-yr periods
• 2-region Starter example
• Addition scenarios (drawn from DemoS)
• Training video 37

VEDA TIMES-Starter Platform
Phase II Ideas – VBAAdd-in Functions
• Dependencies check in said XLS (with “New Model” facility)
• “Replicate Process” to introduce new technologies on BY SETUP
o Prompt for components (assume same demand) - fuel, type, quality, etc.,
plus source data Sheet/Process name
o Insert entries (below?) rows in SETUP/Calibrate/Process/ProcData
• “Replicate Demand Service” to introduce new enduse demand service
on BY SETUP
o Prompt for name / description, and ask if current block of devices in the
current service are to be duplicated
o Insert entries (below?) rows in
SETUP/EB/Calibrate/Commodities/CommData
o If devices block to be copied prompt for source data sheet, do “Replicate
Process” for each entity, without anything in the data source tech name
• Quick QC on parameters [minny AttributeMaster] on Comm/ProcData
sheets
o Dump from VFE of AttributeMaster to control checks within the template
o Check that all attributes/qualifiers recognized
• Other (easy) QCs
o Warn if same header 2x [not necessarily a mistake]
38

39
Thank You!
Contact Information
Gary.a.Goldstein@gmail.com
Introduction to TIMES Methodology & TIMES-Starter Platform

Energy Policy Analysis TIMES-Starter Platform

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Energy Policy Analysis TIMES-Starter Platform

Similar to Energy Policy Analysis TIMES-Starter Platform (20)

More from IEA-ETSAP

More from IEA-ETSAP (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Energy Policy Analysis TIMES-Starter Platform