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Assessment of the long-term potential of
‘power to hydrogen’ in the energy system of
Belgium during 2020-2050 using TIMES ...
Agenda
Background.
Methodology.
Discussion on modelling.
Results.
Conclusions
Potential Demand for H2– Transportation & In...
Hydrogen – Situation in Belgium
Only 3 hydrogen refueling stations and 23 H2 vehicles
so far.
Industrial feedstock demand ...
Introduction to the study
Evaluate the potential of power to hydrogen (H2
from low carbon grid electricity) in Belgium.
Mo...
5
METHODOLOGY
Reference Energy System
with Hydrogen
6
Scenarios – electricity demand & carbon
prices
7
Scenarios 2030 2040 2050
REF 35 78 100
GHGEERES30 11 55 152
Carbon prices...
DISCUSSION ON MODELLING
8
Hydrogen Demand (Exogenous Input)
• Transportation: The number of FCEV cars in 2050 is approx. 20 % of
the total number of...
Hydrogen Fuel Chain Modelled in TIMES
10
Hydrogen for Mobility- Onsite
11
Source: own developed; logontoyota.com;oranacarandtruck.com
Hydrogen for Mobility- Centralised with
tubetrailer delivery
12
Source: own developed; logontoyota.com;oranacarandtruck.com
Industrial Feedstock Production- Onsite
13
Source: own developed
RESULTS
14
Results – Transportation Sector
• Decentralised production
with alkaline electrolyser
dominates the hydrogen
production.
•...
Investment Required for Hydrogen Refuelling
Infrastructure - Transportation Sector
16
Around 2.5 GW electrolyser
capacity ...
Cost Breakdown - centralised mode H2
production in 2050 for transportation
17
Total = 12.55
Euro/kg
Source: Own calculated...
Total avoided emissions in transportation
18Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results
Results related to industrial sector
• In industry sector – Alkaline electrolysers started to be
competitive with steam me...
Share of hydrogen produced by SMR and
Alkaline electrolysers in industrial sector
20
Source: Owned calculated from TIMES r...
Price Duration Curve with electrolyers and
without electrolysers
21
The lower duration of lower power prices
would improve...
A note on comparison b/w Alkaline & PEM
electrolysers
• Partial load characteristics were modelled using TIMES extension f...
Conclusion
Although grid connected electrolysers increases the emissions in early
years, this has a potential to reduce em...
THANK YOU
24
References
• Hydrogenics (no date) Electrolysis | Hydrogenics. Available at: https://www.hydrogenics.com/technology-
resou...
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Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy system of Belgium during 2020-2050 using TIMES model

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Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy system of Belgium during 2020-2050 using TIMES model

  1. 1. Assessment of the long-term potential of ‘power to hydrogen’ in the energy system of Belgium during 2020-2050 using TIMES model Presented by Mohammed Abi Afthab Olikathodi 1 Supervisers from EUF Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller Dipl- Ing. Wulf Boie Supervisers from VITO Dr Anjana Das Mr Jan Duerinck
  2. 2. Agenda Background. Methodology. Discussion on modelling. Results. Conclusions Potential Demand for H2– Transportation & Industrial sectors.Questions? 2
  3. 3. Hydrogen – Situation in Belgium Only 3 hydrogen refueling stations and 23 H2 vehicles so far. Industrial feedstock demand mainly in refineries & ammonia plants Captive plants, merchant plants and as byproducts Predominantly produced by steam methane reforming Source: (The Brussels Times, 2019) 3
  4. 4. Introduction to the study Evaluate the potential of power to hydrogen (H2 from low carbon grid electricity) in Belgium. More focus on supply side – production of H2 using electrolysis. Centralised or Onsite Production? How much capacity required? How much investment? Water electrolysis – Alkaline or PEM electrolysis? Electrolysis or steam methane reforming for industries? 4
  5. 5. 5 METHODOLOGY
  6. 6. Reference Energy System with Hydrogen 6
  7. 7. Scenarios – electricity demand & carbon prices 7 Scenarios 2030 2040 2050 REF 35 78 100 GHGEERES30 11 55 152 Carbon prices in Euro/ton of CO2
  8. 8. DISCUSSION ON MODELLING 8
  9. 9. Hydrogen Demand (Exogenous Input) • Transportation: The number of FCEV cars in 2050 is approx. 20 % of the total number of vehicles. • Industries: demand estimated based on existing demand (0.4 Milliontonne) considered based on various studies. Period FCEV CARS % of total cars Trucks % of total trucks 2025 7500 0.13 500 0.1 2030 30000 0.5 3000 0.4 2050 1375000 21 30000 3 Source: van der Laak 2015 9
  10. 10. Hydrogen Fuel Chain Modelled in TIMES 10
  11. 11. Hydrogen for Mobility- Onsite 11 Source: own developed; logontoyota.com;oranacarandtruck.com
  12. 12. Hydrogen for Mobility- Centralised with tubetrailer delivery 12 Source: own developed; logontoyota.com;oranacarandtruck.com
  13. 13. Industrial Feedstock Production- Onsite 13 Source: own developed
  14. 14. RESULTS 14
  15. 15. Results – Transportation Sector • Decentralised production with alkaline electrolyser dominates the hydrogen production. • However, share of centralised mode increases as the electricity mix gets decarbonized and hydrogen demand increases in long term. 15
  16. 16. Investment Required for Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure - Transportation Sector 16 Around 2.5 GW electrolyser capacity required by 2050 This will incur around 5.5 billion euro investments required
  17. 17. Cost Breakdown - centralised mode H2 production in 2050 for transportation 17 Total = 12.55 Euro/kg Source: Own calculated from TIMES results Electricity cost dominates the total cost
  18. 18. Total avoided emissions in transportation 18Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results
  19. 19. Results related to industrial sector • In industry sector – Alkaline electrolysers started to be competitive with steam methane reforming from 2040. • Onsite production was found to be the least cost option. • Centralised mode may not have been preferred because the industrial H2 demand profile was kept constant. • Approximately, cumulative emission reduction of 15 million ton of CO2 in both the scenarios. 19
  20. 20. Share of hydrogen produced by SMR and Alkaline electrolysers in industrial sector 20 Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results
  21. 21. Price Duration Curve with electrolyers and without electrolysers 21 The lower duration of lower power prices would improve revenue of renewables Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results
  22. 22. A note on comparison b/w Alkaline & PEM electrolysers • Partial load characteristics were modelled using TIMES extension for dispatching & unit commitment. • PEM electrolysers were never found to be competitive with alkaline electrolysers. • Cannot draw conclusion based on this result as the model always made the electrolysers work without any partial load efficiency drop. • A MILP approach would be required to compare the alkaline & PEM electrolysers. 22
  23. 23. Conclusion Although grid connected electrolysers increases the emissions in early years, this has a potential to reduce emissions in the long term when the electricity mix is highly decarbonized Centralised mode of production becomes relevant when there is large H2 demand and when there is large share of renewables. Power to hydrogen can help more renewables penetration. However, Belgium should accelerate decarbonizing its electricity mix. Import of green H2 , alternative H2 production like green H2 production from off-grid electrolysers, blue production from SMR (with CCUS) and pyrolysis should also be explored 23
  24. 24. THANK YOU 24
  25. 25. References • Hydrogenics (no date) Electrolysis | Hydrogenics. Available at: https://www.hydrogenics.com/technology- resources/hydrogen-technology/electrolysis/ (Accessed: 21 July 2019). • Van der Laak, W., Martens, I. F. en A. and Stefan, N. (2015) National Implementation Plan: Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure Belgium. • Maisonnier, G. et al. (2007) European hydrogen infrastructure atlas and industrial excess hydrogen analysis. PART III : Industrial distribution infrastructure, Roads2HyCom. Available at: https://www.ika.rwth- aachen.de/r2h/images/c/c8/Roads2HyCom_R2H2007PU_-_(Part_III)_-_Industrial_H2_Distribution.pdf. • Martens, I. F. en A. and Vanhoudt, T. W. en W. (2018) Het potentieel voor groene waterstof in Vlaanderen Een routekaart. • Münch, K. et al. (2016) Grid Integrated Multi Megawatt High Pressure Alkaline Electrolysers for Energy Applications. • The Brussels Times (2019) ‘More hydrogen filling stations to be installed in Flanders’, The Brussels Times. Available at: https://www.brusselstimes.com/brussels-2/61144/mr-worried-about-the-future-of-french-speaking- culture-in-brussels/ (Accessed: 20 July 2019). • Thomas, D. et al. (2016) Power to gas road map for Flanders. Available at: http://www.power-to- gas.be/sites/default/files/P2G Roadmap for Flanders - Final report.pdf. 25

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