THE ROLE OF SEA IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT : Lessons from the Mekong River of SE Asia This presentation was given at the VIII International Conference RIVERS OF SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST innIrkutsk, 6-7 June 2013 by Tarek KETELSEN, International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) www.icem.com.au The presentation provides an introduction to the Mekong, an overview of Mekong mainstream hydropower and the role /scope of SEA in influencing decisions. SEA Process, the impacts of mainstream hydropower, power security, economic development & poverty alleviation, ecosystem integrity, fisheries & food security, social systems & communities, and alternatives to mainstream hydropower are also considered. The Mekong is one of the most bio-diverse river basins globally. Some statistics on Mekong biodiversity: - 781 known fish species - 200 new fish species found 2011-2012 - 1,000 new terrestrial & aquatic species 1997 -2007 - Centre of origin for coconut, sugar cane, clove, nutmeg, black pepper, onion, cucumber, egg plant - >13,000 traditional rice varieties in Lao PDR - >3,000 traditional egg plant varieties in Lao PDR - Highly productive system - >70% of Mekong population are dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods

1. VIII INTERNATIONAL
CONFERENCE
RIVERS OF SIBERIA AND THE FAR
EAST
IRKUTSK | 6-7 JUNE 2013
TAREK KETELSEN
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
1
THE ROLE OF SEA IN
PROMOTING
SUSTAINABLE
HYDROPOWER
DEVELOPMENT :
Lessons from the
Mekong River of SE
Asia

2. 2
1. Introduction to the Mekong
2. Overview of Mekong mainstream
hydropower
3. Role /scope of SEA in influencing decisions
4. SEA Process
5. Impacts of mainstream hydropower
 Power security
 Economic development & poverty alleviation
 Ecosystem integrity
 Fisheries & food security
 Social systems & communities
6. Alternatives to mainstream hydropower
7. Conclusions
OVERVIE
W

3. 3
THE
MEKONG
BIODIVER
SITY One of the most bio-diverse river
basins globally
 781 known fish species
 200 new fish species found 2011-2012
 1,000 new terrestrial & aquatic species
1997 -2007
 Centre of origin for coconut, sugar
cane, clove, nutmeg, black pepper,
onion, cucumber, egg plant
 >13,000 traditional rice varieties in Lao
PDR
 >3,000 traditional egg plant varieties in
Lao PDR
 Highly productive system
 >70% of Mekong population are
dependent on natural resources for
their livelihoods

4. 4
 Monsoon climate and snow/glacial melt in the
Lancang River leads to a “flood pulse” hydrograph
 Flood pulse is highly variable between seasons, but
highly consistent in the timing of seasonal
transitions
 Vast areas of flood plain, river banks and in-channel
islands vary between aquatic and terrestrial phases
every year
 Creating seasonal habitats and efficient recycling
of biomass and nutrients
HAS HIGH
LEVELS OF
VARIABILIT
Y
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
PAKSE
VIENTIANE
CHIANG SAEN
KRATIE
TAN CHAU
CHAU DOC

5. 5
HAS HIGH
LEVELS OF
VARIABILIT
Y

6. 6
HAS HIGH
LEVELS OF
CONNECTIV
ITY Mountains – floodplains – delta –
marine
 Transport of average 457km3/yr
 Production & transport of ~160Mt of
sediment each year
 >26,000 t/yr of Total P
 Floodplains – riverine habitats
 Migration of fish – at least 800,000 t/yr
 Floodplain refuge for 1.3 Mt/yr of non-
migratory fish

7. 7
MAINSTRE
AM
HYDROPO
WERNo MAINSTREAM
PROJECT
DEVELOPER
1 Pak Beng China: Datang International Power Generation
2 Luang
Prabang
Vietnam: PETROVIETNAM Power Corporation
3 Xayaburi Thailand: SEAN & Ch. Karnchang Public
4 Pak Lay China: CEIEC & Sino-Hydro
5 Xanakham China: Datang International Power Generation
6 Pak Chom Thailand/Laos:
7 Lat Sua Thailand: Italian Thai Asia Corp. Holdings
8 Ban Koum Thailand: Charoen Energy & Waters Asia
9 Don Sahong Malaysia: Mega First
10 Thakho France: Compagnie Nationale du Rhone and EDL
11 Stung Treng Vietnam
12 Sambor China: Southern Power Grid

8. 8
MAINSTRE
AM
HYDROPO
WER
VIET NAM
 Reservoir lengths: 10 – 180km
 Reservoir Areas: 13-620km2
 55% of the Mekong River (Chiang
Saen to Kratie) converted from river
to reservoir
 Total installed capacity: 14,697 MW

9. 9
WHY
MAINSTRE
AM
HYDRO? Regulation of Mekong flow
due to Chinese hydropower
on the Lancang River (Upper
Mekong Basin)
 Rapid entrance of the private
sector into hydropower
development and their
preference for large
investment projects

10. 10
SEAs OF
MEKONG
HYDROPO
WER
MRC SEA OF MEKONG
MAINSTREAM HYDROPOWER
 Involved consultations with more than 60
government agencies & 40 NGOs
 18 months (2009-2010)
 24 specialists
 Focused on 12 mainstream hydropower
schemes
 These are sovereign decisions of Cambodia (2
proposals) and Lao PDR (10 proposals)
 There is a commitment to notify, consult and
seek to reach agreement with neighbors
ADB SEA OF GMS POWER
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
 Focused consultations on the GMS Regional
Power Trade Committee & Govt, consultation
 18 months (2012-2013)
 13 specialists
 Focused on the GMS power development
plan
 Consists of:
 The national Power Development Plans
 Additional GMS regional transmission
line options
 Identifies the economic least-cost
generation and transmission expansion

11. 11
ROLE OF
SEA
SEA
MRC SEA: what are
the cross-
sectoral
impacts of
large
hydropower
development
on the
GMS SEA: what are
the alternatives
to large
hydropower
which will
continue to
support growth
without the
high cost to
natural systems
and other
sectors?
WATERSHED MANAGEMENT
 Conservation plans
 Agriculture, fisheries,
aquaculture etc master
plans
 Rural development plans
 Protected Area buffer
zone management plans
 Water allocation plan
POWER & INDUSTRY
 Power development
plans
 Transmission line
master plans
 Special Economic
Zones
 Distribution systems

12. 12
 An SEA is effective if it
contributes and influences the
decision making process
 Influence can be:
 To distill the critical trade-offs –
the “big” issues
 Providing alternatives to the plan
that better meet sustainability
objectives
 Consolidate sustainability
objectives where they are absent
 Provide space for discussion and
debate amongst decision makers
 Improve transparency of
decision making
 And sometimes even to fill
information gaps by undertaking
new research
INFLUENCE
DECISION
PROCESSE
S

13. 13
Inception and scoping
Report
Baseline
Assessment
Report
Opportunities &
Risk Report
Final
Report
National Government consultations
Regional Government Consultations
Civil society Organizations (CSO) Consultations
Developer consultations
May – June 2009 June-Sep 2009 Feb-May 2010 May-July 2010
Scoping phase Baseline
phase
Opportunities
&
Risk phase
Avoidance
enhancement &
Mitigation phase
AME
Report
Oct 2010
 Staged approach – analysis, consultation & documentation at
each stage
STEPS IN
SEA
PROCESS

14. 14
SEA
PROCESS
National Scoping & Capacity
Building Workshop & Civil Societ
Meetings
•4 National Scoping Workshops
•3 Civil Society meeting
•ThaiCivil Society meeting to follow in
November
8 THEMES (~30 - 40 KEY ISSUES)
Government Line Agency
Meetings
•meetings with 40 agencies in the LMB
2 Field Missions & Opinion from
17 experts
•Luang Prabang, Xayabouly, Pak Lay,
Sanakhan, Pak Chom
100s of development Issues
past present future
Without mainstream
hydropower
Issue 2
Issue 1
With mainstream
hydropower
2. BASELINE ASSESSMENT
With mitigation
1.SCOPING
3. OPPORTUNITIES & RISKS ASSESSMENT
4.MITIGATION
 SCOPING: What are the key
issues for development and
conservation ?
 BASELINE: What are the trends
in these keys issues without the
proposed development?
 IMPACT: What are the impacts
of mainstream hydropower on
each of these trends?
 AVOIDANCE, ENHANCEMENT,
MITIGATION: How will the most
important
 risks be avoided, or
mitigated
 benefits be enhanced

15. 15
 Large projects producing significant quantum of power: 14,697
MW, or 23 - 28% of the national hydropower potential of the 4 LMB
countries
 Not critical in terms of regional power sector:
 6-8% of the projected LMB power demand for 2025, equivalent to the
expected LMB energy demand growth rate experienced in one year
between 2015 and 2025
 Minor impact on electricity prices at regional(<1.5%) , and national
levels
 Lao PDR gains most from the overall mainstream power benefits,
but has many alternatives for export & domestic supply
 The mainstream proposals are most critical to power sector
development in Cambodia
 heavily dependent on expensive imported oil and most limited
range of alternative options
IMPACTS:
POWER
SECURITY

16. 16
ECONOMI
C
DEVELOP
MENT Export revenues are
estimated to be worth
~USD3-4billion/yr for
all 12 projects
 Lao projects: USD 2.6-
2.8billion/yr
 Cambodian projects:
USD 1.2-1.4 billion/yr
 During the BOT*
concession period (0-
25yrs):
 26-31% of project
benefits would accrue
to national
governments
 Remainder to
 FDI ~USD25billion for all 12
projects – significant economic
stimulus to the host countries and
the region
 ~50% of FDI would be spent
outside host countries
 Fisheries and agriculture: losses
are an order of magnitude greater
than the realistic benefits to those
sectors
 Fisheries losses ~USD 476
million/yr
 Reservoir fishery gains ~USD
14million/yr
 Agricultural losses ~USD
33.1million/yr

17. 17
ECONOMI
C
DEVELOP
MENT LMB mainstream projects
would likely contribute to
a growing inequality and a
short to medium term
worsening of poverty in
LMB countries
 Insufficient national and
regional capacity to
ensure that benefits
accruing at the national
level are transferred to
the local level
 short to medium term:
international financing

18. 18
 The mainstream projects would cut the longitudinal connectivity of the
Mekong ecosystem, compartmentalizing it into smaller and far less productive
units resulting in an irreversible compromise to natural system integrity:
 ~55% of the river Chiang Saen – Kratie will become reservoir
 ~5% of the river would experience permanent water levels great than 1/1,000yr event
 ~40% of the Mekong River’s wetlands would be affected
 ~ 17% of which would be permanently inundated by the LMB mainstream projects
 Loss or reduction in important Mekong transition seasons
 Not a significant regional impact on the Mekong flood regime from individual projects due to
small retention times
 Sediment load drop by ~50% for 2030 without LMB mainstream
 Sediment load will drop by 75% with LMB mainstream with major consequences for delta
stability, floodplain fertilization and coastal fishery
 Peaking operation: 3-6m spikes in water levels in towns 40-50km downstream
of a project
 Little time for notification (1-2hours)
 Potentially even larger during emergency or unplanned releases
IMPACTS:
ECOSYST
EMS

19. 19
 permanent and irreplaceable global loss of biodiversity, including the
extinction of a number of globally endangered species, which cannot be
compensated
 The loss of habitats would encourage the proliferation of generalist
species
 river fragmentation would isolate aquatic populations into pockets
leading to a loss of species
 Adverse impacts to Mekong aquatic systems & geomorphology would
be unavoidable
 Terrestrial ecosystems:
 generally more locally based impacts
 can be mitigated or compensated by measures for rehabilitation and re-creation
(e.g. conservation offset programmes)
IMPACTS:
ECOSYST
EMS

20. 20
Mainstream projects:
 Would fundamentally
undermine the
abundance,
productivity and
diversity of the
Mekong fish
resources, affecting
the millions of rural
people who rely on it
for nutrition and
livelihood
 total loss in fish
resources ~660,000
t/yr from all
hydropower
IMPACTS:
FOOD
SECURITY

21. 21
 Rural and urban
communities living within
15 km of the Mekong River
would experience greater
food insecurity due to:
 the reduction in capture
fisheries
 net loss of subsistence
agriculture and river bank
gardens.
 Substantial losses in the
fresh and marine capture
fisheries and in Delta
aquaculture would have
IMPACTS:
FOOD
SECURITY

22. 22
 significant effects on riparian
communities by disrupting
their ways of life, cultures and
sense of community
 2.1 million people, ~10% of
people living & working within
5 km of the river, are expected
to be most at risk to the direct
and indirect impacts of the
LMB mainstream dams
 Direct impacts:106,942 people
 Indirect impacts: 2 million people
IMPACTS:
COMMUNI
TIES

23. 23
NATIONA
L TRADE-
OFFSTHEME ISSUE LAO PDR CAMBODIA THAILAND VIET NAM
Hydrology and
sediment
Changes in patterns of maximum water levels, rates of rise and predictability
Changes in sediment transport and deposition
Changes in nutrient transport
Terrestrial
ecosystems
and
agriculture
Habitat loss and degradation
Changes in Land use
Changes in irrigated agriculture
Changes in River bank gardens
Aquatic
ecosystems
Change in productivity of aquatic habitats
Changes in populations of rare and endangered species
Changes in water quality
Fisheries Changes in long distance migration
Changes in fish species biodiversity
Changes in fish production
Social systems Changes in poverty and natural resource based livelihoods
Changes in health and nutrition
Social effects of resettlement, land acquisition and loss of access
Changes in cultural values and patterns
Economics Contributions to national economy - Export earning
Contributions to national economy - Foreign Direct Investment
Contributions to local economies (district and community level
Energy and
Power
Achieving energy security
Meeting national energy demands
Meeting local energy needs
Climate
change
Relative emissions of green-house Gas
Direct impacts of climate change on hydropower projects - extreme events & dam security
Combined effect of climate change and mainstream dams on food security

24. 24
NATIONA
L TRADE-
OFFSAll groups recognized:
 Benefits were
focused on power &
economic themes
 risks would focus on
natural & social
systems, particularly
fisheries and
hydrology &
sediment
 Potential for
increased poverty
from mainstream
development despite
recognition of high
returns from power
sales

25. 25
ENERGY
ALTERNAT
IVES
 5 scenarios
1. BAU
2. Global renewables
3. Local renewables
4. Global energy efficiency
5. Local energy efficiency
 Renewable Energy scenario
(“RE scenario”) increases
the renewable energy in
the GMS energy generation
mix by exploiting additional
unplanned RE potential in
place of planned
conventional capacity.
 Energy Efficiency scenario
(“EE scenario”) reduces the

26. Building the
scenarios
Current PDPs
Scenario
Renewable
Energy Scenario
Energy Efficiency
Scenario
PLANNEDGENERATIONOUTPUT
Demand reduction with
energy efficiency
Renewable Energy
Conventional energy
sources
Renewable and Efficiency
scenarios displace
planned conventional
energy capacity
Alternative
scenarios displace
conventional
capacity with
different
quantities of
renewable energy
and energy
efficiency
QUANTIFYI
NG
ALTERNAT
IVES

27. 27
PRINCIPLE
S FOR
ALTERNAT
IVES
Global
Concerns
• Climate Change
Related
Energy
Sources
• Which conventional energy
sources most affect these
concerns?
• Lignite
• Coal
• Gas
Displacem
ent
Principles
• Remove lignite, coal and gas
plants in order of the
quantity of emissions they
produce
Regional
Concerns
• Biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
• Livelihoods and food security
• Health
• Regional transboundary impacts
Related Energy
Sources
• Which conventional energy sources most affect
these concerns?
• Hydropower
• Nuclear
• Lignite and coal
Displacement
principles
• Remove mainstream hydropower plants to
eliminate their significant disturbance of
ecosystems and settlements and contribution to
transboundary impacts
• Remove other hydropower plants, relative to their
power density, number of people resettled, and
their distance to the Mekong mainstream
• Remove nuclear power plants to eliminate the risk
associated with radioactive waste and nuclear
accidents
• Remove lignite and coal plants in order of the
relative quantity of SOx, NOx and particulate
emissions produced by fuel type

28. 28
MODELLIN
G
ALTERNAT
IVESOptGen modelling
objective:
 Minimise the Net Present
Value of the cost of:
 Capital + Fixed O&M
+ Variable O&M +
Fuel + Deficit +
Constraint violation
penalties
 Subject to:
 Maintaining the
demand-supply
balance at each
system node
 Power plant and
interconnection
capacity constraints
 Water balance at

29. Large potential for
solar at 76 GW
Less than
2% of technical
potential realised
in 2010
RENEWAB
LES
POTENTIA
L 2050
Note:
1. Only includes currently
proven technologies
2. Excludes off-grid potential

30. EE potential to 2025 Additional EE
potential is 17%
of planned
consumption
Cambodia and Lao
PDR assumed to have
a 10% saving
Vietnam more than
half of energy
consumption
EFFICIENC
Y
POTENTIA
L 2050

31. 31
ENERGY
ALTERNAT
IVES
 Technically and
economically feasible
options for power
trade and
development exist in
the GMS which
 Meet high regional
power demand rates
 Not require
mainstream Mekong

32. 32
1. Globally important river: The Mekong is one of the few remaining
international rivers undammed over most of its length;
2. Irreversible change: One dam across the Lower Mekong
mainstream commits the river to irrevocable change;
3. International tensions: The proposed developments when under
construction and operating have the potential to create tensions
within the LMB;
4. Impacts are unavoidable: Many of the risks associated with the
proposed mainstream developments cannot be mitigated at this
time – they would represent a permanent and irreversible loss of
environmental, social and economic assets;
5. Weak institutional capacity: There are many and substantial gaps
in institutional and procedural arrangements for ensuring the
effective management of construction and operation of the
projects;
CONCLUS
IONS

33. 33
6. Weak regulation: Critical national capacities in terms of personnel
and skills are not yet in place to oversee, control, monitor and
enforce safeguards and operational rules;
7. Weak safeguards: The framework of regional standards and
safeguards relating to trans-boundary and downstream effects and
institutional arrangements for their enforcement are not fully
developed and are not adequate;
8. Big uncertainties: There are so many remaining uncertainties and
serious risks associated with the developments that more studies
are needed to better inform responsible decisions making;
9. Knowledge gaps: The state of knowledge about the Mekong is not
considered adequate for making an informed decision about
mainstream dams at this time;
10. There are technically and economically feasible options which can
satisfy regional power demand without the need for Mekong
mainstream hydropower.
CONCLUS
IONS

34. 34
THANK
YOU!
 For SEA
documents
please visit:
 www.icem.com.a
u
 www.mrcmekong
.org/ish/SEA