This presentation outlines the ARCC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation Study. The objectives of the study were to take an ecosystems approach in: 1) Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poor and their environment - water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife); 2) Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientific evidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites; 3) Defining adaptation strategies to inform community and ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and 4) Communicating the results of the vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning.

1. Protected areas, biodiversity
and climate change
Jeremy Carew-Reid
ICEM – International Centre for
Environmental Management
jecr@icem.com.au
www.icem.com.au
Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and
Adaptation Study for Natural and
Agricultural Systems

2. Take an ecosystems approach in:
1. Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poor
and their environment - water resources, food security,
livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife);
2. Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientific
evidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites;
3. Defining adaptation strategies to inform community and
ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and
4. Communicating the results of the vulnerability
assessment and adaptation planning.
ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management
2
ARCC Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment & Adaptation Study
Objectives
mpacts and Adaptation Study
orkshop
vember 2012
Climate and
hydrological
change:
methods and
results
Climate Cha
Interim Resu
31 October –
ICEM – International Centre for
Environmental Management
Tarek Ketelsen
Jorma Koponen
Jeremy Carew-Reid
Simon Tilleard
Mai Ky Vinh
To Quang Toan

3. Climate change and LMB farming ecosystems
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ICEM, 2012
Climate changes
Hydrological changes
LMB ecozones
(farming ecosystems)
Farming ecosystem species
Industrialand
commercialcrops
Aquaculture
species
Livestock
Subsistencecrops
Traditional
landraces
NTFPs
Cropwildspecies
Wildfish
Wildlife
ThreatImpactVulnerability
Adaptation options and priorities
Adaptation

4. Climate change vulnerability continuum
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ICEM, 2012

5. 5
Key concepts

6. Climate change shifts
Regular climate shifts
1. Geographic shifts (space):
 latitude and longitude
 elevation
2. Seasonal shifts (time)
 onset and end,
 variability
Extreme events shifts
3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location
 Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands
 Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone
landfall
6ICEM 2012
Shifts

7. Geographic
shift in climate
Paddy rice
and
commercial
crops
Shift in zone of suitability
for habitat and crops
Original extent of
natural habitat
Remaining
natural habitat
pockets
Subsistence crops and NTF
collection
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ICEM 2012
Shifts

8. Ecological shifts due to climate change
• Geographic shift in species ranges
• Substantial range losses
• Seasonal shifts in life cycle events
(eg. advances in flowering and
fruiting, fish and bird migration)
• Body size changes - warming
associated with decreased body
size
• Community composition changes:
Warm-adapted species in
communities increase – others die
out
• Genetic changes (eg tolerance
shifts; stress proteins)
ICEM 2012 8
Shifts

9. 9
Purpose of zoning is to identify areas with common:
 climate change characteristics
 bio-physical characteristics
Two types of zones:
1. Ecological zones – natural habitat, species and genetic
resources
2. Climate change zones – temperature, rainfall, extreme
events, water availability and hydrology
Overlay the climate change zones on the ecozones at various
levels of focus
Zones provide a common analytical framework for the study
Zones

10. ICEM 2012 10
Ecozones
Ecozones have detailed:
 biophysical descriptors
(elevation, temperature,
rainfall and landform)
 natural system descriptors
(vegetation, soils)
 agricultural, livestock and
fisheries profiles
Zones

11. Climate change
zones
Areas experiencing similar
climate change
1. Annual + seasonal rainfall
averages & extremes
2. Annual + seasonal
temperature averages &
extremes
3. Specific tolerance &
threshold maps (eg
droughts and extreme
events)
11
Zones

12. Hotspots
Dry season
rainfall

13. Hotspots
Dry season
temperature

15. 15
ICEM 2012

16. 16
ICEM 2012

17. Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature
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ICEM 2012
Species comfort zones

18. Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
Species comfort zones
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ICEM 2012

19. LMB protected areas
by country
No. of PAs
Area of PAs
(km2)
PA as % of
basin area
Ave size of
PAs (km2)
No.
important
wetlands
Cambodia 21 3,761 6.1 179 24
Lao PDR 27 3,847 6.2 143 13
Thailand 45 1,824 2.9 41 39
Vietnam 21 383 0.6 18 18
Total 114 9,816 15.8 87

20. LMB protected areas
Proposed
additions
As at 2003 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam
Pas as a % of land area 21% 21% 19% 8%
% of national PA system
managed at local levels
1% 100% 2% 94%
Forests in existing and
proposed PAs as a % of
total forest area
40% 39% 65% 26%
Cambodia 2010 hectares
Communityforests 430 1380,978
Communityprotectedareas 84 93,000
Fisheriescommunityconservation
areas
469 683,734

21. Country
No. important
wetlands
Cambodia 24
Laos 13
Thailand 39
Vietnam 18
Total 94
Important LMB
wetlands

22. Ranking by % average temperature
Change in wet season
PA name Country
1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam
2. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam
3. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam
4. Lomphat WS Cambodia
5. Chu Prong Vietnam
6. Dong Ampham Laos
7. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia
8. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia
9. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia
10. Ta Dung Vietnam
11. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia
12. SNUOL WS Cambodia
13. Mom Ray Vietnam
14. Nam Nung Vietnam
15. Phu Luang Laos
16. Phou Kateup Laos
17. Xe Sap Laos
18. Phou Kathong Laos
19. Xe Khampho Laos
20. Yok Don Vietnam
Ranking by % average temperature
Change in dry season
PA name Country
1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam
2. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia
3. SNUOL WS Cambodia
4. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam
5. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia
6. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam
7. Nam Nung Vietnam
8. Ta Dung Vietnam
9. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia
10. Lomphat WS Cambodia
11. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia
12. Phu Luang Laos
13. Muong Phang Vietnam
14. Nam Ca Vietnam
15. Phou Kateup Laos
16. Dong Ampham Laos
17. Yok Don Vietnam
18. Xe Khampho Laos
19. Phou Kathong Laos
20. Tinh Doi Vietnam
Hot spot ranking: 20 top PAs by % average temperature change

23. Mondulkiri PA cluster

29. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Daysofoccurenceperyear
Dailymaximum temperature (Deg C)
Baseline Climatechange
Temperatures
below 20 °C will
not occur
Temperatures
between 20 – 29 °C
will occur less often
Temperatures between 29 –
44°C will occur more often
Temperatures above 44
° C will start occurring
Mean of maximum
temperatures will increase
from 27 – 30 °C
10
20
30
40
50
60
Daysofoccurenceperyear
Baseline Climatechange
Mondulkiri - average daily maximum temperature shift

30. IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY
ASSESSMENT IN MONDULKIRI
PROTECTED AREA CLUSTER

31. 31
Multiplier Impacts
Production
Poverty
Food security
Sector growth
Ecosystem
services/products

32. THREAT IMPACT
Adaptive
capacity
Vulnerability
Change and
shift in
regular
climate
Written description of the threat
1
Exposure
Sensitivity
Impact
Written explanation of what the impact is and reasons for score
Temperature (i) Annual average max temp increases by
3 to 4 degrees (the new min increases to
the old average) (1)
(ii) From April to May (end dry season) max
temp increases by 17% (2)
(iii) Early in wet season (June to Sept max
temp increases by 16-18.5% (2)
(iv) 40% more days exceeding 30degrees
(shift from 20% to 60%) (3)
(v) 27% more days exceeding 32 degrees
(shift from 10 to 37%) (3)
(vi) Areas experiencing increase in extreme
temps from 42 to 45degrees (3)
(vii) During wet season max temp “comfort
zone” is exceeding by up to 3 degrees
every month (outside “comfort zone”
100%) (4)
(viii) During dry season max temp comfort
zone is exceeded by 60% (5)
(ix) From April for 9 months in succession
the area is 100% outside the “comfort
zone” (5)
(x) Annual average min temp will increase
by 2degrees (7)
(xi) Dry season variation increases from
12.5deg to 15deg but with min and max
H2
,
3
VH
4
VH Provisioning services
 Higher temps, especially during the dry season will increase ET and reduce
water availability for agriculture and domestic uses
 Some important species such as the resin trees and Cardamom are sensitive to
the projected high temp increases and populations would be reduced
especially in already degraded habitats
 Bamboo is the main construction material – it is resilient to extreme temps –
so unlikely to be affected – creating conditions for a successional change in
ecosystems in disturbed areas and causing loss in biodiversity. Potential for
shift to climax bamboo grasslands in some areas.
Regulating services
 Higher temps during the dry season would cause drier soil surface layers
leading to potential increases in erosion and soil loss especially in degraded
areas
 Temp induced drier conditions on the forest floor could reduce natural water
filtering and regulation functions
 If surface litter is drier there is potential for losses in soil nutrient runoff and
enrichment in surrounding areas
 We can expect some species and habitats to be lost from the system reducing
biodiversity and population sizes
 If temp increases induces biodiversity loss and forest ecosystem shifts or
degradation, regulatory services will be reduced
 The impact on regulating services will be felt especially in the multiple use
VL5
VH
Mondulkiri protected area cluster - climate change impact and
vulnerability assessment matrix
1. Provisioning services
2. Regulating services
3. Habitat services
4. Cultural services

33. Ecosystem comfort zone: The
range of precipitation or
temperature that was
experienced during 50% of
the baseline around the
mean.
ICEM 2012 33
Ecosystem comfort zones
Mondulkiri mid
elevation dry
broadleaf forest
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
BaselineWet Season
(Jun-Nov)
CCWet Season
(Jun-Nov)
BaselineDry Season
(Dec- May)
CCDry Season
(Dec - May)
Dailymaximumtemperature(DegC)
Figure5
C. Z.
C. Z.

34. Threat Impact
Adaptive
capacity
Vulnerability
Change and shift in regular climate
Exposure Sensitivity Impact
1. Temperature H VH VH VL VH
2. Precipitation VH H VH M VH
3. Water
availability
H VH VH VL VH
Change and shift in events
4. Drought H VH VH VL VH
5. Flooding H H H VL VH
6. Flash floods VH VH H VL VH
7. Storms H H H L H
Mondulkiri PA cluster impact and vulnerability
assessment

35. Ecological shifts in the Mondulkiri PA cluster:
• Extreme temperatures coupled with drying leading
to an accelerated loss of populations & species
• Key habitats reduced or lost – eg drying of
Trapaengs (wetlands) during the dry season
• New ‘problem’ species entering communities
• Reorganisation of plant and animal communities
• Geographic range shifts eastward and some
upwards (?) and range losses
A transformation of Mondulkiri PA cluster ecosystems
is projected
ICEM 2012 35

36. Mondulkiri protected area cluster - Trapaengs

37. 37
Drying out of trapaengs and other wetlands during the dry
season

38. Wild mushroom : Russula virescens
Habitats : lower part
of trees near ground
of deciduous, dry
dipterocarp forests,
marshes, swamps
Fruiting : June-Oct.
peak at the end of
rainy season
Temperature range :
30-38˚C
80-90% air humidity
Rainfall : 1,350
mm/yr
Climate key threats
• Future average temperature range 27
– 37 °C is still within the optimal
range during fruiting period
• Future maximum temperature 44 °C
is beyond the comfort zone, but may
enhance the decay of leaf litter which
become nutrients facilitating growth
• Reduced dry season rainfall and soil
moisture may affect sub-soil parts
• Increase of total rainfall in wet season
enhances availability & abundance
• Increased forest fires and loss of
associated tree species and habitats
Baseline vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate) Climate change vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate)
Prediction: Climate change is unlikely to increase the overall vulnerability

39. Rattans : Calamus caesius
• Perennial, long life, multi-stems, clustering, in lowlands on alluvial flats,
riverbanks, moist evergreen, dry evergreen, peatswamp forests, also at drier
sites
• Alluvial soils up to 800 m asl
• New shoots germinate all year round; Fruiting : November-March
• Temperature range : optimal 23-30°C; absolute 16 – 34°C
• Rainfall range : optimal 2,500-3,200 mm/yr; absolute 1,700-4,200 mm/yr
• Used for handicrafts, shoots used for food
• Cultivation possible
Climate key threats
• Increase in total rainfall enhances growth
• Future maximum temperature 44 °C is beyond the comfort zone
• Decrease of dry season rainfall may affect growth and fruiting
• Possible increase in forest fires which destroy seedlings
• High adaptive capacity due to drought tolerance of extensive root system
Baseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Moderate) CC vulnerability = 2.0 (Moderate)
Prediction: Climate change unlikely to increase vulnerability

40. Resin Tree : Dipterocarpus alatus
• Habitats : along riverbanks, bottom of ridges, swampy areas in dry
dipterocarp, dry evergreen, lower moist evergreen, semi-evergreen,
evergreen forests
• Flowering : March-May, Fruiting : April-June
• Resin collection : only in summer (April-May)
• Elevation range : 100-800 m asl
• Temperature range : optimal 22-32˚C, absolute 10-36˚C, can grow in areas
with max temperature up to 45 ˚C
• Rainfall range : optimal rainfall 3,500-4,500 mm/yr, absolute 3,000-5,200
mm/yr, found in areas 1,000-2,000 mm/yr
Baseline vulnerability = 2.2 (Moderate) CC vulnerability = 2.5 (High Vulnerable)
Prediction: Climate change will significantly increase the vulnerability
Climate key threats
• increase in temperature enhances forest fire; forest fires kill seedlings and lower
volume and quality of resin/oil
• extreme events (storms and high winds) kill seedlings and affect the trees which are
improperly tapped and hole maintained
• extreme droughts enhance insect attacks (longhorn beetles) and also lower seed
germination rate

41. NTFP collection - loss of
resin trees

42. Jeremy Carew-Reid
Director
ICEM – International Centre for Environmental
Management
jecr@icem.com.au
www.icem.com.au; www.mekong-protected-
areas.org