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Abdessalam OuldAhmed,Abdessalam OuldAhmed,
FAO Assistant Director General andFAO Assistant Director General and
Regional RepresentativeRegional Representative
Near East and North Africa RegionalNear East and North Africa Regional
Office, Cairo, EgyptOffice, Cairo, Egypt
June 25, 2013June 25, 2013
Food Security in the Near East and North Africa:Food Security in the Near East and North Africa:
Situation, Challenges and Strategic OptionsSituation, Challenges and Strategic Options
Outline
I. Situation of food insecurity at the global level and Recent Developments:
changing trends in global food prices and supplies
II. Situation of food insecurity in the Near East and North Africa (NENA)
 Major challenges facing food security in the Near East and North Africa (NENA)
I. How the World is responding?
I. What needs to be done?
Outline
Situation of food insecurity at the global level
High levels of undernourishment in the World
 With almost 870 million people chronically undernourished in 2010–12,
the number of hungry people in the world is unacceptably high.
 The vast majority, more than 850 million, live in developing countries
MDG-1 hunger target
 More progress in reducing hunger in developing world than previously thought.
 MDG target within reach, only if adequate and appropriate actions to reverse
slowdown after 2006.
… poverty at the root of the problem
Adequacy of global supply
not the problem
Outline
Recent Developments: changing trends in global food
prices and supplies
Global food price trend 1990-2011
Food Security in Near East and North Africa
Food requirement and sources: What is
expected by 2050
 Food demand to increase by 70 %
 cereal demand up by 1 billion tonnes
 meat demand up by 200 million tonnes
 these projections exclude biofuels
 Where will it come from?
 small increase in cultivated area
 90 % from increased yields and cropping
intensity
 improved seeds
 increased use of inputs (esp. water and fertilizer)
Uneven progress: Africa, NearEast & North
Africa
Outline
Climate Change, Water and Food Security Nexus
Climate change, water and food security
 IPCC predicts: increase in temp., sea level,
extreme weather and a decrease in precipitation
 Increased drought will
 Increase rural to urban migration
 Increase gap between rich and poor
 Fuel social tensions and strain public finances
 As a result, food security risks will increase,
particularly in dry land countries
Food Security
Potential
Carbon Mitigation
Potential
Food Security Potential : High
Carbon Mitigation Potential: Low
•Expand crop onto marginal lands
•Expand high energy -intensive irrigation
Food Security Potential : Low
Carbon Mitigation Potential: Low
• Bare fallow
• Continuous cropping without use if nutrients
• Over-grazing
Food Security Potential : High
Carbon Mitigation Potential: High
•Restore degraded land
•Expand low energy-intensive irrigation
•Soil & water conservation structures/techniques
•Agro-forestry options that increase food or
incomes
Food Security Potential : Low
Carbon Mitigation Potential: High
•Reforestation/afforestation
•Restore organic soils
•Agro-forestry options with limited food or
income benefits
Synergies/tradeoffs between food security and
CC mitigation
Source: Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies, FAO 2009
Outline
Levels of food insecurity in the Near East and North
Africa (NENA)
Countries in the Near East differ widely in terms of
their natural and human resources and economic
development, but they face common challenges in
agriculture and food security:
Dry land environment with Limited and fragile natural resource base,
particularly water: per capita renewable water per annum is estimated at 700
cubic meters compared with a World average of 6,400 cubic meters
High Population growth and in the region: average population growth rate
in the region is estimated at 2.2 percent per annum, which is among the
highest in the World
Frequent incidence of natural disasters (drought, desertification, desert
locust, floods) and their aggravation by climate change
Major Structural Challenges Facing the
Near East and North Africa
Some of the key drivers of food insecurity in the region
 Poverty is at the core of the food security problem in the region. The
poor spend anywhere from 35 to 65 percent of their income on food.
Food security is predominantly an access issue rather than availability
in the market
 Inequality: The poorest quintile of the region’s population claim less
than 8% of national income
 Conflicts and civil unrest – continue to pose challenges to farming and
related activities in Yemen, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Sudan; civilian
displacement and loss of productive assets increases vulnerability to
food insecurity
 Unemployment rates are high; especially among youth, and many
people depend on informal jobs
As a result, dependence of the region on food
imports is high and is projected to increase over time
Imports
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2000 2010 2020 2030
'000MTofcereal(includingfeed)
Demand
Domestic supply
Source: Adapted from IFPRI, 2008
Dependence on cereal imports will increase
Near East and North Africa countries are highly
dependent on food imports
Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010
-76
NENA
Region
-60+ 20+ 20
-6
-20
+18
+101+101
+23+23
Cereal Productivity in NENA Lags Behind
World Averages
Outline
What needs to be done?
1111
2222 enhancing domestic food sources
3333 enhancing markets and managing their volatility
Countries need to consider how they can combine
these three pillars to create a comprehensive and
integrated strategy
Addressing Food Security in NENA
strengthening safety nets, providing people with
access to resources, markets and family
planning services, and promoting education
A food security strategy forthe region rests
on three pillars:
The three pillar to address food security
3.ManagingMarket
Volatility
1111
Addressing
Demand
2222
Enhancing
Supply
3333
Managing
Market
Volatility
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2000 2010 2020 2030
'000MTofcereal(incl.feed)
1. Address Demand
2. Enhance domestic supply
Source: Adapted from WB/FAO/IFAD, 2009
The first pillar strengthens safety nets and promotes greater
access to family planning services and education
The First PillarThe First PillarThe First PillarThe First Pillar
Improve the targeting of safety nets
Make safety nets scalable
Employ cash transfers rather than in-kind
subsidies
Strengthen program coordination and
enhance payment mechanisms
Ensure sufficient resources are allocated to
education and to family planning services
Educate families about the benefits of a well-
balanced diet to sustain long-term health
benefits
Fortify staple foods with essential vitamins
and minerals
1111
Stronger safety nets are critical to
protect those in need
Greater access to education has
health benefits and reduces cereal
demand
The second pillar enhances domestic food supplies by
investing in research and development and rural livelihoods
The Second PillarThe Second PillarThe Second PillarThe Second Pillar
2222
Supply ConsiderationsSupply Considerations
Productivity gains reduce price risk and are the critical
counterweight to increasing food demand
Investment needs to be targeted to ensure water is put to its
highest value use
Research and development can lead to new technologies that
will drive up productivity
Investments in rural livelihoods will help rural communities
make the most of their resources
The third pillar reduces exposure to market volatility by
improving supply chains and using financial instruments
The Third PillarThe Third PillarThe Third PillarThe Third Pillar
3333
Invest in infrastructure
- Fixed infrastructure such as silos and
roads
- Mobile infrastructure such as boats and
trucks
- Intellectual infrastructure such as patents
and IT
Reduce food losses
Create bonded warehouses
Partner with key suppliers
Futures: Especially attractive to oil-rich
countries with access to credit
Options: Provide greater flexibility than
futures
Swaps and loans: World Bank offers
clients commodity swaps and structures
commodity-linked loans
Improving supply chains can reduce
marketing and transportation costs
as well as quantity risks
Effective use of diverse financial
instruments can reduce exposure to
price risk
Outline
How the World is responding?
Food Security: Global Goals
Eradicating hunger, malnutrition and food insecurity is top on
global agenda: MDG1; FAO Food Security Summits; G8
Summit at L’Aquila; G-20 Summit in Seoul 2010; meeting of
Agriculture Ministers in Paris, June 2011; Rio +20; discussions
on post 2015 development agenda, etc.
Outline
How FAO is responding to the recent development in
foo security challenges?
FAO New Strategic Framework
 Upgrading goal: eradicating hunger
 Approach: an integrated approach to nutrition, food
security and sustainable natural resource management,
taking full account of the impact of climate change
 Objectives: five cross-cutting strategic objectives
 Objective 2 (SO2) calls for “increasing and improving
provision of goods and services from agriculture,
forestry and fisheries in a sustainable manner”
• Addressing malnutrition requires a multi-sectoral approach that includes
complementary interventions in food systems, public health and education
• Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and malnutrition
and that economic and agricultural growth should be “nutrition-sensitive”
• Investing in agriculture is one of the most effective strategies for reducing
poverty and hunger and promoting sustainability
• Social protection is crucial for accelerating hunger reduction
• Closing the gender gap in agriculture would generate significant gains for the
agriculture sector and for society
• Addressing the structural imbalance between food production and consumption
• To accelerate hunger reduction, decisive public action is needed:
• Political commitment,
• Institutions, Institutions, Institutions …
Global Food Security: Some Key Lessons
Learned from the Past

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Food Security in Near East and North Africa

  • 1. Abdessalam OuldAhmed,Abdessalam OuldAhmed, FAO Assistant Director General andFAO Assistant Director General and Regional RepresentativeRegional Representative Near East and North Africa RegionalNear East and North Africa Regional Office, Cairo, EgyptOffice, Cairo, Egypt June 25, 2013June 25, 2013 Food Security in the Near East and North Africa:Food Security in the Near East and North Africa: Situation, Challenges and Strategic OptionsSituation, Challenges and Strategic Options
  • 2. Outline I. Situation of food insecurity at the global level and Recent Developments: changing trends in global food prices and supplies II. Situation of food insecurity in the Near East and North Africa (NENA)  Major challenges facing food security in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) I. How the World is responding? I. What needs to be done?
  • 3. Outline Situation of food insecurity at the global level
  • 4. High levels of undernourishment in the World  With almost 870 million people chronically undernourished in 2010–12, the number of hungry people in the world is unacceptably high.  The vast majority, more than 850 million, live in developing countries
  • 5. MDG-1 hunger target  More progress in reducing hunger in developing world than previously thought.  MDG target within reach, only if adequate and appropriate actions to reverse slowdown after 2006.
  • 6. … poverty at the root of the problem Adequacy of global supply not the problem
  • 7. Outline Recent Developments: changing trends in global food prices and supplies
  • 8. Global food price trend 1990-2011
  • 10. Food requirement and sources: What is expected by 2050  Food demand to increase by 70 %  cereal demand up by 1 billion tonnes  meat demand up by 200 million tonnes  these projections exclude biofuels  Where will it come from?  small increase in cultivated area  90 % from increased yields and cropping intensity  improved seeds  increased use of inputs (esp. water and fertilizer)
  • 11. Uneven progress: Africa, NearEast & North Africa
  • 12. Outline Climate Change, Water and Food Security Nexus
  • 13. Climate change, water and food security  IPCC predicts: increase in temp., sea level, extreme weather and a decrease in precipitation  Increased drought will  Increase rural to urban migration  Increase gap between rich and poor  Fuel social tensions and strain public finances  As a result, food security risks will increase, particularly in dry land countries
  • 14. Food Security Potential Carbon Mitigation Potential Food Security Potential : High Carbon Mitigation Potential: Low •Expand crop onto marginal lands •Expand high energy -intensive irrigation Food Security Potential : Low Carbon Mitigation Potential: Low • Bare fallow • Continuous cropping without use if nutrients • Over-grazing Food Security Potential : High Carbon Mitigation Potential: High •Restore degraded land •Expand low energy-intensive irrigation •Soil & water conservation structures/techniques •Agro-forestry options that increase food or incomes Food Security Potential : Low Carbon Mitigation Potential: High •Reforestation/afforestation •Restore organic soils •Agro-forestry options with limited food or income benefits Synergies/tradeoffs between food security and CC mitigation Source: Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies, FAO 2009
  • 15. Outline Levels of food insecurity in the Near East and North Africa (NENA)
  • 16. Countries in the Near East differ widely in terms of their natural and human resources and economic development, but they face common challenges in agriculture and food security: Dry land environment with Limited and fragile natural resource base, particularly water: per capita renewable water per annum is estimated at 700 cubic meters compared with a World average of 6,400 cubic meters High Population growth and in the region: average population growth rate in the region is estimated at 2.2 percent per annum, which is among the highest in the World Frequent incidence of natural disasters (drought, desertification, desert locust, floods) and their aggravation by climate change Major Structural Challenges Facing the Near East and North Africa
  • 17. Some of the key drivers of food insecurity in the region  Poverty is at the core of the food security problem in the region. The poor spend anywhere from 35 to 65 percent of their income on food. Food security is predominantly an access issue rather than availability in the market  Inequality: The poorest quintile of the region’s population claim less than 8% of national income  Conflicts and civil unrest – continue to pose challenges to farming and related activities in Yemen, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Sudan; civilian displacement and loss of productive assets increases vulnerability to food insecurity  Unemployment rates are high; especially among youth, and many people depend on informal jobs
  • 18. As a result, dependence of the region on food imports is high and is projected to increase over time Imports 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 '000MTofcereal(includingfeed) Demand Domestic supply Source: Adapted from IFPRI, 2008 Dependence on cereal imports will increase
  • 19. Near East and North Africa countries are highly dependent on food imports Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010Cereal Net Imports/Exports (Million Metric Tons), by Region, 2010 -76 NENA Region -60+ 20+ 20 -6 -20 +18 +101+101 +23+23
  • 20. Cereal Productivity in NENA Lags Behind World Averages
  • 22. 1111 2222 enhancing domestic food sources 3333 enhancing markets and managing their volatility Countries need to consider how they can combine these three pillars to create a comprehensive and integrated strategy Addressing Food Security in NENA strengthening safety nets, providing people with access to resources, markets and family planning services, and promoting education A food security strategy forthe region rests on three pillars:
  • 23. The three pillar to address food security 3.ManagingMarket Volatility 1111 Addressing Demand 2222 Enhancing Supply 3333 Managing Market Volatility 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 '000MTofcereal(incl.feed) 1. Address Demand 2. Enhance domestic supply Source: Adapted from WB/FAO/IFAD, 2009
  • 24. The first pillar strengthens safety nets and promotes greater access to family planning services and education The First PillarThe First PillarThe First PillarThe First Pillar Improve the targeting of safety nets Make safety nets scalable Employ cash transfers rather than in-kind subsidies Strengthen program coordination and enhance payment mechanisms Ensure sufficient resources are allocated to education and to family planning services Educate families about the benefits of a well- balanced diet to sustain long-term health benefits Fortify staple foods with essential vitamins and minerals 1111 Stronger safety nets are critical to protect those in need Greater access to education has health benefits and reduces cereal demand
  • 25. The second pillar enhances domestic food supplies by investing in research and development and rural livelihoods The Second PillarThe Second PillarThe Second PillarThe Second Pillar 2222 Supply ConsiderationsSupply Considerations Productivity gains reduce price risk and are the critical counterweight to increasing food demand Investment needs to be targeted to ensure water is put to its highest value use Research and development can lead to new technologies that will drive up productivity Investments in rural livelihoods will help rural communities make the most of their resources
  • 26. The third pillar reduces exposure to market volatility by improving supply chains and using financial instruments The Third PillarThe Third PillarThe Third PillarThe Third Pillar 3333 Invest in infrastructure - Fixed infrastructure such as silos and roads - Mobile infrastructure such as boats and trucks - Intellectual infrastructure such as patents and IT Reduce food losses Create bonded warehouses Partner with key suppliers Futures: Especially attractive to oil-rich countries with access to credit Options: Provide greater flexibility than futures Swaps and loans: World Bank offers clients commodity swaps and structures commodity-linked loans Improving supply chains can reduce marketing and transportation costs as well as quantity risks Effective use of diverse financial instruments can reduce exposure to price risk
  • 27. Outline How the World is responding?
  • 28. Food Security: Global Goals Eradicating hunger, malnutrition and food insecurity is top on global agenda: MDG1; FAO Food Security Summits; G8 Summit at L’Aquila; G-20 Summit in Seoul 2010; meeting of Agriculture Ministers in Paris, June 2011; Rio +20; discussions on post 2015 development agenda, etc.
  • 29. Outline How FAO is responding to the recent development in foo security challenges?
  • 30. FAO New Strategic Framework  Upgrading goal: eradicating hunger  Approach: an integrated approach to nutrition, food security and sustainable natural resource management, taking full account of the impact of climate change  Objectives: five cross-cutting strategic objectives  Objective 2 (SO2) calls for “increasing and improving provision of goods and services from agriculture, forestry and fisheries in a sustainable manner”
  • 31. • Addressing malnutrition requires a multi-sectoral approach that includes complementary interventions in food systems, public health and education • Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and malnutrition and that economic and agricultural growth should be “nutrition-sensitive” • Investing in agriculture is one of the most effective strategies for reducing poverty and hunger and promoting sustainability • Social protection is crucial for accelerating hunger reduction • Closing the gender gap in agriculture would generate significant gains for the agriculture sector and for society • Addressing the structural imbalance between food production and consumption • To accelerate hunger reduction, decisive public action is needed: • Political commitment, • Institutions, Institutions, Institutions … Global Food Security: Some Key Lessons Learned from the Past

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Messages : Poverty is at the root of the hunger problem. High prevalence of hunger is associated with desperately low per capita incomes. As incomes improve prevalence of hunger drops fast. The propensity to consume more with increasing incomes is very strong Even in richer countries there is hunger. In all cases it is not the lack of supplies at the global level responsible for hunger. There has always been enough food globally but poor people cannot gain economic access to it. They lack income. Poverty is at the root of problem!
  2. Messages : A recent FAO study presented at Copenhagen looked into across a range of ag. practices and their impacts on food security and adaptation to climate change (through increasing ag. productivity and resilience) climate change mitigation (through impacts on carbon sequestration in soils, plants and trees as well as emission reductions). The study found that there are many opportunities for realizing synergies between adaptation, mitigation and food security but we need a policy and investment framework that can recognize and value cross-sectoral benefits to realize them. Expansion of marginal lands illustrates that there are some actions that can be considered to generate short run benefits to food security, but tradeoffs with mitigation (and actually a whole range of environmental impacts) in both the short and long run.  Even expansion of high-energy intensive agriculture is not sustainable in the long run either which means that policies for ag. in the 21st century need to be looking beyond short run gains - to the long run sustainability -and a key issue is providing farmers with incentives/support to assume short run costs (in the form of opportunity and/or investment costs) in order to adopt systems that have long term sustainability.