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Source: Emami Reports, Dabur Reports, AC Nielsen, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
titled The Bird of Gold, Booz & Company, Aranca Research
Favourable demographics and rise in
income level to boost FMCG market
Rise in rural consumption to drive the
FMCG market
Total consumption
expenditure set to increase
Overall FMCG market expected to
increase at a CAGR of 14.7 per cent to
USD110.4 billion during 2012–20
The rural FMCG market expected to
increase at a CAGR of 16.3 per cent to
USD100 billion during 2011–25
Total consumption expenditure to reach
nearly USD3600 billion by 2020 from
USD991 billion in 2010
36.8
110.4
2012 2020E
FMCG market size (USD billion)
CAGR: 14.7%
12
100
2011 2025
Rural FMCG market size (USD billion)
CAGR: 16.3%
991
3600
2010 2020
Consumption expenditure (USD billion)
CAGR: 13.8%
Source: Emami Reports, Dabur Reports, AC Nielsen, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled The Bird of Gold, Aranca Research
Note: Germany population is estimated to reach 81.26 million by 2016
India’s working population to be more than
double the total population of the US
(361.6 million) by 2030
India’s middle income class to be thrice
the total population in Germany by 2016
Rural India’s per capita disposable income
set to increase
Working population (aged between 15 and
64 years) estimated to increase from 780
million in 2011 to 900 million by 2030
India’s middle income population
estimated to reach 267 million by 2016
from 160 million in 2011
Rural India’s per capita disposable income
is estimated to rise to USD631 in 2020
from USD411 in 2010
780
900
2011 2030
Working population (In million)
CAGR: 0.8%
160
267
2011 2016
Middle income population (In million)
CAGR: 10.8%
411
631
2010 2020
Annual per capita disposable income in rural region (USD)
CAGR: 4.3%
• The engineering sector is delicensed;
100 per cent FDI is allowed in the
sector
• Due to policy support, there was
cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into
the sector over April 2000 – February
2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total
FDI into the country in that period
Growing demand
Source: Emami, Estimates by AC Nielsen, Live Mint, Jan 13, Aranca
Note: FTMTS - First Time Modern Trade Shoppers
Growing demand
• Rising incomes and growing youth
population have been key growth
drivers of the sector
• Brand consciousness has also
aided demand
• First Time Modern Trade
Shoppers spend is estimated to
triple to USD1 billion by 2015
• Tier II/III cities are witnessing
faster growth in modern trade
Attractive opportunities
• Low penetration levels in rural
market offers room for growth
• Disposable income in rural India
has increased due to the direct
cash transfer scheme
• Growing demand for premium
products
• Exports is another growth
segment
Policy support
• Investment approval of up to 100 per
cent foreign equity in single brand
retail and 51 per cent in multi-brand
retail
• Initiatives like Food Security Bill and
direct cash transfer subsidies reach
about 40 per cent of households in
India
Higher investments
• Industry has witnessed healthy FDI
inflow, as the sector accounted for
2.0 per cent of the country’s total
FDI inflow over April 2000 to March
2013
• Many players are expanding into
new geographies and categories
• Organised retail share is expected
to double to 14-18 per cent of the
overall retail market by 2015
2011
Rural
FMCG
market size:
USD
12billion
2025E
Rural
FMCG
market size:
USD
100billion
Advantage
India
Source: HUL
Notes: OTC is over the counter products; ethicals are a range of pharma products
FMCG
Household care Personal care Food & Beverages
Fabric wash, Household
cleaners
Oral care, hair care, skin
care, cosmetics/deodorants,
perfumes, feminine hygiene
and paper products
Health beverages,
staples/cereals, bakery
products, snacks,
chocolates, ice cream,
tea/coffee/soft drinks,
processed fruits and
vegetables, dairy products,
and branded flour
Health care
OTC products and ethicals
Source: Dabur Annual Report 2011-12, Economic Times Apr 2013, May 2013, Emami Annual
Report 2011-12, Mckinsey Global Institute, Aranca Research
FMCG is the fourth largest sector in the Indian economy
The FMCG sector has grown at an annual average of about 11 per cent over the last decade
Retail market in India is estimated to reach USD450 billion by 2015, with organised retail accounting for a 14–18 per cent
share; this is likely to boost revenues of FMCG companies
Indian FMCG industry (USD
billion)
Gross block of FMCG industry
(USD billion)
Market size of chocolates (USD
million)
Market size of personal care
(USD billion)
HUL’s share in FMCG market
(Per cent)
>50
<3
<100
0.6
9.0
12.5
8.6
1020.4
2.3
36.8
2000
2012-13
(2012)
(2010)
(2013)
(2013)
(2011)
Source: Booz & Company, Dabur, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Trends in FMCG revenues over the years
(USD billion)
The FMCG sector in India generated revenues worth
USD36.8 billion in 2012, a 5.7 per cent rise compared to the
previous year
The strong growth in 2012 should come as no surprise
given the impressive performance of the sector over the
years
Over 2006-12, the sector’s revenues posted a CAGR of
15.2 per cent 15.7
17.8 21.3
24.2
30.2
34.8
36.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CAGR: 15.2%
Source: Dabur, Aranca Research
Market break-up by revenue (2009)‘Food products’ is the leading segment, accounting for 43.0
per cent of the overall market
Personal care (22.0 per cent) and fabric care (12.0 per cent)
are the other leading segments
43%
22%
12%
8%
4%
4%
2%
5% Food products
Personal care
Fabric care
Hair care
Households
OTC products
Baby care
Others
Source: Dabur, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Urban- rural revenue break-up (2011)The urban segment is the largest contributor to the sector,
accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue
Semi-urban and rural segments are growing at a rapid pace;
they currently account for 33.5 per cent of revenues
FMCG products account for 53.0 per cent of total rural
spending
66.5%
33.5%
Urban
Rural
Source: Mckinsey Global Institute April 2010, Aranca Research
The shift of households from the deprived and aspirers
category having income less than USD1,985.9 per annum
to the seekers and strivers category having income between
USD4,413.1 and USD22,065.3 per annum will change the
outlook for the industry over the coming years
The number of middle class households (earning between
USD4,413.1 and USD22,065.3 per annum) will increase
more than fourfold to 148 million by 2030 from 32 million in
2010
It is estimated that the population earning more than
USD22,065.3 per annum would increase from 1 per cent in
2008 to 3 per cent by 2020 and 7 per cent by 2030
The rising number of middle class and the rich has
accelerated the purchase of premium products
All India household by income bracket (2010)
1% 3% 7%2%
6%
17%
12%
25%
29%
35%
40%
32%
50%
26%
15% Deprived
(<1985.9)
Aspirers (1985.9 -
4413.1)
Seekers (4413.1 -
11032.7)
Strivers (11032.7 -
22065.3)
Globals
(>22065.3)2008 2020 2030
Income segmentMillion Household,100%
222 273 322
Source: Mckinsey Global Institute: The Bird of gold AC Nielsen,
Aranca Research
Annual per capita disposable income level
in rural region (USD)
In 2012, rural India accounted for more than 33 per cent of
the total FMCG market
Total rural income, which is currently at around USD572
billion, is projected to reach USD1.8 trillion by FY21
During 2010-20, annual per capita disposable income in the
rural region is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 4.4 per
cent to USD631
As income levels are rising, there is also a clear uptrend in
the share of non-food expenditure in rural India
Share of non-food expenditure in rural India rose from 36.0
per cent in FY08 to 46.4 per cent in FY10
411
516
631
2010 2015 2020
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research, Dabur Reports
Note: * - MAT, MAT - Moving Annual turnover
FMCG industry Rural (USD billion)The Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector in rural
and semi-urban India is estimated to cross USD20 billion by
2018 and USD100 billion by 2025
During September 2011 to September 2012, FMCG Moving
Annual Turnover (MAT) increased 16.4 per cent to USD11.7
billion in rural areas
10.0
11.7
Sep '11* Sep '12*
CAGR: 16.4%
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Notes: UR - Urban Rural
Growth in urban and rural FMCG markets (2011)The urban FMCG market in India has been growing at a
fairly steady and healthy rate over the years; encouragingly,
the growth in rural markets has been more fast-paced
During FY11, more than 80 per cent of FMCG products
posted faster growth in rural markets as compared to urban
ones
Notable high growth sectors include salty snacks, refined
edible oil, healthcare products, iodised salt etc.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Biscuits
Refinedoils
Saltysnacks
Non-refinedoils
Toiletsoaps
Washingpowder
Packagedtea
Iodisedsalt
Hairoils
Shampoo
Urban Rural UR Growth %
Source: Dabur, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Penetration levels of few top selling FMCG (2011)Hair oils, toothpastes and shampoos have significantly high
penetration in both urban and rural markets
Instant noodles, floor cleaners and hair dyes are picking up
in the rural areas due to increased awareness
42%
37%
67%
18%
18%
3%
2%
4%
77%
57%
80%
32%
59%
19%
5%
26%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Toothpaste
Shampoo
Hairoil
Skin cream
Mosquito repellent
Instant noodles
Hair dye
Floor cleaner
Urban Rural
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Sales channel breakdown (2010)A total of 7.8 million retail outlets sell FMCG in India
Grocers are the dominant retail format, accounting for 59.0
per cent
59%
13%
8%
6%
3%
6%
5%
Grocers
General stores
Chemists
Paan plus
Food stores
Modern trade
Others
Source: Economic times 1 May, 22 May 2013
Note: * - Calculated in terms of Indian rupee
Sales (USD million)Consumer products manufacturers ITC, Godrej Consumer
Products Limited (GCPL), Dabur and Marico reported
healthy net sales in FY13
GCPL’s net sales increased from USD1,011.9 million in
FY12 to USD1,176.7 million in FY13
Dabur and Marico’s net sales surged 16.3 per cent* and
15.5 per cent*, respectively
During FY13, ITC’s (Foods) net sales increased to USD847
million from USD774.3 million in the previous year
Aggregate financial performance of the leading 10 FMCG
companies over the past eight quarters displays that the
industry has grown at an average 16-21 per cent in the past
two years
1,011.9
1,102.0
827.7
829.6
774.3
1,176.7
1,131.7
844.1
824.9
847.0
0 500 1000 1500
GCPL
Dabur
Marico
HUL (F&B)
ITC (Foods)
FY13 FY12
Market Leader Others
Hair Oil 42% 15% 8% 5%
Shampoo 46% 24% 10% 6%
Oral care 50% 23% 13%
Skin care 59% 7% 7% 6%
Fruit juice 52% 35%
Source: Industry estimates
Source: Aranca Research
Consolidation • Indian FMCG companies are consolidating their existing business portfolios
Product innovation
• Several companies have started innovating or customising their existing product portfolios
for new consumer segments
Brand consciousness
• Consumers are becoming more brand conscious and prefer lifestyle and premium range
products given their increasing disposable income
Expanding horizons
• A number of companies are exploring the business potential of overseas markets and
several regional markets
Backward integration • Backward integration is becoming the preferred strategy for increasing profit margins
Focus on rural market • Companies are now focusing on the rural market segment which is growing at a rapid
pace and contributes about 33 per cent to the total FMCG market
Expanding distribution
networks
• Companies are now focused on improving their distribution networks to expand their reach
in rural India
Third-party
manufacturing
• This approach has helped FMCG companies focus on front-end marketing
• Reservation of several items for SSI as well as additional tax incentives have made third
party manufacturing a popular route for many big players
Rising importance of
smaller-sized packs
• Companies are increasingly introducing smaller stock keeping units at reduced prices.
This helps them to sustain margins, maintain volumes from price-conscious customers
and expand their consumer base
Increased hiring from
tier II/III cities
• Small towns are emerging as significant hiring zones. FMCG companies are hiring field
staff from areas such as Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh), Mangaliya (Madhya Pradesh), Kota
(Rajasthan), and Shirdi (Maharashtra) to sell diverse products
Focus on enhancing
presence in Africa
• FMCG companies entering Africa as it helps to be close to consumption markets within
Africa
• Such foreign investments are encouraged by local governments, as they offer incentives
to enter the markets
Reducing carbon
footprint and eco-
friendly products
• FMCG players in India are increasingly focussing on reducing their carbon footprint by
creating eco-friendly products. They generate the required energy from renewable sources
and earn CER credits for the same
Increasing private label
penetration
• With the rise of retail players, private label has become popular in the FMCG space.
Private Label goods are considered substitutes of premium branded goods
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Notes: CER - Certified Emission Reductions; SSI - Small Scale Industry
Source: Aranca Research
Notes: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment
Rising incomes
driving purchase
Desire to
experiment with
brands
Evolving consumer
lifestyle
New product
launches
Growth of modern
trade
Availability of online
channel to shop
Increasing
consumer demand
Greater awareness
of products, brands
FMCG growth
drivers
Source: IMF, Aranca Research
Notes: F - Forecasted, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
India’s nominal per capita income (USD)Incomes have risen at a brisk pace in India and will continue
rising given the country’s strong economic growth
prospects. According to the IMF, nominal per capita income
is estimated to have recorded a CAGR of 11.2 per cent over
2000–12
An important consequence of rising incomes is growing
appetite for premium products, primarily in the urban
segment
As the proportion of ‘working age population’ in total
population increases, per capita income and GDP are
expected to surge
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Growth
Source: NREGA, Aranca Research
Notes: MSP is Minimum Support Price,
NREGA is National Rural Employment Guarantee Act
Total funds released by govt. for NREGA
(USD billion)
The Indian government has been supporting the rural
population with higher MSPs, loan waivers, and
disbursements through the NREGA programme
These measures have helped in reducing poverty in rural
India and have thus propped up rural purchasing power
During FY09-14, funds allocations to NREGA expanded at a
CAGR of 15.6 per cent to USD6.1 billion
3.5
8.2
8.8
6.5
7.4
6.1
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Contribution of private label in modern trade (2011)Growing awareness, easier access, and changing lifestyles
has meant growing consumer spending in modern retail
stores
Spending at modern retail stores in India shot up by 31 per
cent in 2011 compared to the previous year
Modern retail spending is expected to shoot up to USD5
billion in 2015 from USD1.8 billion in 2011
37%
27%
23%
23%
22%
17%
17%
15%
13%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Packaged rice
Floor cleanser
Tissue paper
Glass cleansers
Packaged atta
Phenyls
Bread
Toilet cleansers
Packaged ghee
Jams and jelly
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Low Income Value Explorers spending (USD billion)In 2012, 10 million LIVE households, earning an income of
less than USD1,325.7 on annual basis, living in urban India
spent one-fifth of their household expenditures (USD2.4
billion) on FMCG in 2012
This shopper segment is estimated to boost FMCG sales to
USD3.6 billion by 2015
2.4
3.6
2012 2015
CAGR: 14.4%
Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
First Time Modern Trade Shoppers spending
(USD million)
FTMTS spending on FMCG products is estimated to triple to
USD1,000 million by 2015 from USD280 million in 2012
FTMTS spends 35 per cent on FMCG at modern trade and
is growing by 15 per cent each year
This shopper segment will drive growth of the FMCG sector
280
1000
2012 2015
CAGR: 53.0%
Source: DIPP, Aranca Research
Cumulative FDI inflows (USD million)The sector has been witnessing healthy FDI inflows over
the years; during FY01-13, FMCG accounted for 2.0 per
cent of total inflows
Within FMCG, food processing was the largest recipient; its
share was 46.6 per cent
1811.1
865.5
632.4
384.9
101.2
95.4
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0
Food processing
Paper, pulp
Soap, cosmetics
Vegetable oil
Tea,Coffee
Retail trading
Goods and service tax
(GST)
• GST for the purpose of integrating multiple indirect taxes under a unified tax system is
likely to be implemented in 2013
• The rate of GST on services is likely to be 16 per cent and on goods is proposed to be 20
per cent
Excise duty
• The current excise duty is 12 per cent
• However, for consumers, it is expected that there will be more money to spend on FMCG
products as income tax exemptions limits have been hiked to INR200,000
Relaxation of license
rules
• Industrial license is not required for almost all food and agro-processing industries, barring
certain items such as beer, potable alcohol and wines, cane sugar, and hydrogenated
animal fats and oils as well as items reserved for exclusive manufacture in the small-scale
sector
Statutory Minimum
Price
• In October 2009, the government amended the Sugarcane Control Order, 1966, and
replaced the Statutory Minimum Price (SMP) of sugarcane with Fair and Remunerative
Price (FRP) and the State-Advised Price (SAP)
FDI in organised retail
• The government recently approved 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail, which will boost
the nascent organised retail market in the country
• It also allowed 100 per cent FDI in the cash and carry segment and in single-brand retail
Source: Aranca Research
Source: Aranca Research
Goods and Service Tax
(GST)
System changes and transition management
• Changes need to be made to accounting and IT
systems in order to record transactions in line with
GST requirements and appropriate measures need
to be taken to ensure smooth transition to the GST
Supply chain structure
• Introduction of GST as a unified tax regime will lead
to a re-evaluation of procurement and distribution
arrangements
• Removal of excise duty on products would result in
cash flow improvements
Cash flow
• Tax refunds on goods purchased for resale implies
a significant reduction in the inventory cost of
distribution
• Distributors are also expected to experience cash
flow from collection of GST in their sales, before
remitting it to the government at the end of the tax-
filing period
Pricing and profitability
• Elimination of tax cascading is expected to lower
input costs and improve profitability
• Application of tax at all points of supply chain is
likely to require adjustments to profit margins,
especially for distributors and retailers
Source: Company websites, Bloomberg, Aranca Research
Target name (segment) Acquirer name (segment)
Merger/
Acquisition
United Spirits Diageo Plc. Acquisition
Keyline Brands Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Acquisition
Hobi Kozmetik, Turkey Dabur Acquisition
L.D. Waxson, Singapore Wipro Consumer Acquisition
Halite Personal Care India Private Limited (Personal Care ) Marico Ltd (Food and Personal Care) Acquisition
Paras Pharma (Personal Care) Marico Ltd (Food and Personal Care) Acquisition
Namaste group (Personal Care) Dabur (Food) Acquisition
Cosmetica Nacional (Cosmetics) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Acquisition
CC Health Care Products Pvt Ltd (Cosmetics) Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd (Cosmetics and Toiletries) Acquisition
Eastern Condiments Pvt Ltd (Food-Misc/Diversified) McCormick & Co Inc (Food-Misc/Diversified) Acquisition
Vietnam Spice Unit (Food and beverages) Bafna Enterprises (Food and Beverages) Acquisition
Noble Hygiene Pvt Ltd (Household and Personal Products) Bennett Coleman & Co Ltd (Publishing) Acquisition
Hobi Kozmetik, Turkey (Personal Care Products) Dabur India (Personal Care) Acquisition
Target name (segment) Acquirer name (segment)
Merger/
Acquisition
Argencos, Argentina (Hair Care Products) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (Home and Personal Care) Acquisition
Lotte India Corp Ltd (Food) Lotte Confectionery Co Ltd, South Korea (Food) Acquisition
Megasari, Indonesia (Soap and cleaning products ) GCPL (Home and personal care) Acquisition
Issue Group, Argentina (Hair products) GCPL (Home and personal care) Acquisition
Tura, Nigeria (Soap and cleaning products ) GCPL (Home and personal care) Acquisition
Tern Distilleries Pvt Ltd (beverages - wine/spirits) United Spirits Ltd (beverages) Acquisition
Vale Do Ivai SA Acucar E Alcool (sugar and ethanol) Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd (food) Acquisition
Greenol Laboratories Pvt Ltd (tea) Asian Tea & Exports Ltd (food - tea) Acquisition
Olyana Holding LLC (tea)
UK-based Borelli Tea Holdings Ltd, a wholly-owned unit of
Mcleod Russel India Ltd
Acquisition
Garden Namkeens Pvt Ltd (food - misc.) Cavinkare Pvt Ltd (food) Acquisition
Bacardi Martini India Ltd’s 26 per cent shares from Gemini
Distillery Private Ltd (beverages)
Bacardi Martini BV, Netherlands (beverages) Acquisition
Godrej Hygiene Care Pvt Ltd (home care) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (home care) Merger
Britannia New Zealand Foods Pvt Ltd (joint venture partner
Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd) (food)
Britannia Industries Ltd (food) Acquisition
Source: Bloomberg, Aranca Research
Source: Company Reports, Economic Times, May 6
2013, Business Standard, Aranca Research
Note: CAGR is calculated on INR
Sales (In USD million)
146
163
216
274
303 313
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
CAGR*: 16.5%
Salient features
• Niche category player and innovator
• Key brands are strong market leaders in their
respective categories
• Portfolio includes Zandu, one of the strongest
Ayurvedic brands
• Over 80 per cent of business comes from wellness
categories
• Company’s sales increased at a CAGR of 16.5 per
cent between FY08 and FY13
Source: Company Reports, Brand Equity Survey of
Economic Times, 2012, Aranca Research
Strategy to
drive revenue
Celebrity
promotion
New
geographies
Brand
extension
Rural reach
Product
innovation
Leveraging
existing
distribution
network
Differentiated
‘value for
money’
products
Awards and recognitions
• Among Asia's 'Best Under A Billion' 2010 list of
companies compiled by Forbes magazine
• Emami’s Zandu Balm, Navratna and Boroplus were
ranked among the top 20 brands in the country
• Ranked 125th among BT (Business Today) Most
Valuable Companies of India in private Sector
• Ranked 272nd among Fortune 500 India’s largest
corporations on profitability
Source: Company Reports, Business
Standard, May 1 2013, Aranca Research
Sales (In USD million)
586.7 611.0
715.2
894.7
1,102.0
1,131.7
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
CAGR: 14.0%
Salient features
• Among top four FMCG companies in India
• 10 brands with sales worth over USD20 million each
• Wide distribution network covering 2.8 million retailers
across the country
• 17 world-class manufacturing plants catering to needs
of diverse markets
• Over 30 per cent of revenues generated from
international markets
Source: Company Report, Aranca Research
Strategy
Expand
AcquireInnovate
Awards and recognitions
• Dabur ranked second in the Indian green brand by
Green brands global survey
• Ranked among the top five ‘Best companies to work
for’ in the manufacturing sector by business today
• Ranked 53rd among the world’s top 100 beauty
companies in ‘WWD Beauty Inc.’s top 100’ 2012
• Ranked 33 in India’s 100 most valuable brands, 2012
by 4Ps Business and Marketing magazine
• Ranked 184 in Fortune India 500 list
• Ranked 78 in Super-100 (Business India)
• Ranked 45 among Most Trusted Brands in India
(Brand Trust Report, India Study, 2011)
• Dabur Uveda range of Ayurvedic skin care products
listed amongst the '30 New Beauty Finds' by India
Today Woman
• During FY12, Dabur ranked as the second-most
‘Social Brand of India’.
Source: Company Reports, Business
Standard May 17 2013, Aranca Research
Sales (In USD million)
125.3
228.8
376.3
624.0 656.5
768.2
983.5
1,156.7
1,506.2
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
CAGR: 36.5%
Salient features
• ITC is one of the foremost company in private sector in
terms of sustained value creation, operating profits and
cash profits
• It is the only India-based FMCG company to feature in
Forbes 2000 List
• ITC is a market leader in its traditional businesses of
Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards, Packaging and Agri-
Exports
• The company is rapidly gaining market share even in
its nascent businesses of Packaged Foods &
Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Personal Care and
Stationery
• Its Agri-Business is one of India's largest exporters of
agricultural products
• ITC’s sales increased at a CAGR of 36.5 per cent
between FY05 and FY13
Awards and recognitions
• Featured in the Forbes list of Asia's'Fab 50' and the
World's Most Reputable Companies
• ITC has won the inaugural 'World Business Award” by
the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
• It is the first company in India and the second in the
world to win the prestigious Development Gateway
Award
• ITC has won the Golden Peacock Awards for
'Corporate Social Responsibility (Asia)' in 2007
• Harvard Business Review awarded company’s CEO Y
C Deveshwar as the 7th best performing CEO in the
World
ITC: Select launches FY12
• Bingo ! Tangles
• Sunfeast Dream Cream
• Fiama Di Wills Men
• Vivel Face Washes
• Classmate Stripes
• Paperkraft Signature Series
• Fragrance of Temples
Source: Company Reports, Aranca Research
Source: Assorted articles and reports; AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Rural market
• Leading players of consumer products have a strong distribution network in rural India;
they also stand to gain from the contribution of technological advances such as internet
and e-commerce to better logistics
• Rural FMCG market size is expected to touch USD100 billion by 2025
Innovative products
• Indian consumers are highly adaptable to new and innovative products. For instance there
has been an easy acceptance of men’s fairness creams, flavoured yoghurt, and cuppa
mania noodles
Premium products
• With rise disposable incomes mid- and high-income consumers in urban areas have
shifted their purchase trend from essential to premium products
• In response, firms have started enhancing their premium products portfolio
Sourcing base
• Indian and multinational FMCG players can leverage India as a strategic sourcing hub for
cost-competitive product development and manufacturing to cater to international markets
Penetration
• Low penetration levels offer room for growth across consumption categories
• Majors players are focusing on rural markets to increase their penetration in those areas
Source: Emami Investor Presentation June 12, Aranca Research
Penetration of many product categories is still low. Even among those where the penetration is higher, per capita
consumption is comparatively low, thereby offering scope for high growth in future
Penetration of products such as toilet soap and washing powder is high in the country, but that of some major products,
including toothpaste, fairness cream, antiseptic cream and cold cream, is just 17 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 1.3 per cent,
respectively
Category penetration in India (2012)
95.6% 92.3% 88.6%
74.2%
64.3%
55.7% 51.6%
17.1%
1.7% 1.3%
Toiletsoap
WashingPowder
DetergentBar
Hairoil
Toothpaste
Shampoo
TalcumPowder
Fairnesscream
Antisepticcream
Coldcream
Source: Dabur Investor Presentation Feb 13, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
Per capita consumption of toothpaste in 2012
(In USD)
India offers huge opportunity for the FMCG market
compared to its regional counterparts
Per capita consumption of skincare products (USD0.3),
shampoos (USD0.3) and toothpastes (USD0.4) indicates
high potential for FMCG companies to expand their reach
0.4
0.5
1
2
2.9
India
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Per capita consumption of shampoo in 2012
(In USD)
0.3
1 1.1
2.4 2.7
India
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Per capita consumption of skincare in 2012
(In USD)
0.3
0.8
3.2
7.4 7.7
India
Indionesia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Source: TCS Report, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research
FMCG share in modern retailGrowth of India’s FMCG purchased through modern trade
is surpassing growth of FMCG purchased in general trade
In 2012, market size of the organised FMCG sector was 6
per cent of the overall organised retail market and is
expected to reach 30 per cent by 2020. This represents the
influence of modern retail over the FMCG sector
FMCG companies are partnering with major retail players to
increase brand communication and boost their share in
modern retail
6%
94%
2012
30%
70%
2020
Modern Traditional
Indian Dairy Association
Secretary (Establishment)
Indian Dairy Association, Sector-IV, New Delhi –110022
Phone: 91-11-26170781, 26165355, 26179780; Fax: 91 11
26174719
E-mail: ida@nde.vsnl.net.in
Website: www.indairyasso.org
All India Bread Manufacturers’ Association
PHD House, 4/2, Siri Institutional Area, August Kranti Marg,
New Delhi –110016
Phone: 91-11-26515137; Fax: 91-11-26855450
E-mail: aibma@rediffmail.com; mallika@phdcci.in
Website: www.aibma.com
All India Food Preservers’ Association
206, Aurobindo Place Market Complex
Hauz Khas, New Delhi –110016
Phone: 91-11-26510860, 26518848; Fax: 91-11-26510860
Website: www.aifpa.net
Federation of Biscuit Manufacturers of India
PHD House, 4/2, Siri Institutional Area, August Kranti Marg, New
Delhi –110016
Phone: 91-11-26515137; Fax: 91-11-26855450
E-mail: fbmi@rediffmail.com; mallika@phdcci.in
Website: www.biscuitfederation.com
Indian Soap & Toiletries Manufacturers’ Association
Raheja Centre, 6th Floor, Room No 614, Backbay Reclamation,
Mumbai – 400021
Phone: 91-22-2824115; Fax: 91-22-22853649
E-mail: istma@bom3.vsnl.net.in
Indian Soft Drinks Manufacturers' Association
702, Ansal Bhawan, 16 KG Marg, New Delhi – 110001
Phone: 91-11-46470200; Fax: 91-11-23327747
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India
142, Jolly Maker Chambers, No 2, 14th Floor, 225, Nariman Point,
Mumbai – 400021
Tel : 91-22-22021475, 22822979; Fax: 91-22-22021692
E-mail: solvent@mtnl.net.in
Website: www.seaofindia.com
Vanaspati Manufacturers’ Association of India
903, Akashdeep Building, 26-A, Barakhamba Road,
New Delhi –110001
Phone: 91-11-23312640; Fax: 91-11-23315698
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
MSP: Minimum Selling Price
NREGA: National Rural Employment Guarantee Act
FY: Indian financial year (April to March)
So FY09 implies April 2008 to March 2009
SEZ: Special Economic Zone
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
Year INR equivalent of one US$
2004-05 44.95
2005-06 44.28
2006-07 45.28
2007-08 40.24
2008-09 45.91
2009-10 47.41
2010-11 45.57
2011-12 47.94
2012-13 54.31
Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year)
Year INR equivalent of one US$
2005 45.55
2006 44.34
2007 39.45
2008 49.21
2009 46.76
2010 45.32
2011 45.64
2012 54.69
2013 54.45
Exchange Rates (Calendar Year)
Average for the year
India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by
Aranca in consultation with IBEF.
All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The
same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium
by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in
any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF.
This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this
presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the
content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.
Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in
this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of
any reliance placed on this presentation.
Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on
the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.

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India : Fmcg august 2013

  • 1.
  • 3. Source: Emami Reports, Dabur Reports, AC Nielsen, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled The Bird of Gold, Booz & Company, Aranca Research Favourable demographics and rise in income level to boost FMCG market Rise in rural consumption to drive the FMCG market Total consumption expenditure set to increase Overall FMCG market expected to increase at a CAGR of 14.7 per cent to USD110.4 billion during 2012–20 The rural FMCG market expected to increase at a CAGR of 16.3 per cent to USD100 billion during 2011–25 Total consumption expenditure to reach nearly USD3600 billion by 2020 from USD991 billion in 2010 36.8 110.4 2012 2020E FMCG market size (USD billion) CAGR: 14.7% 12 100 2011 2025 Rural FMCG market size (USD billion) CAGR: 16.3% 991 3600 2010 2020 Consumption expenditure (USD billion) CAGR: 13.8%
  • 4. Source: Emami Reports, Dabur Reports, AC Nielsen, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled The Bird of Gold, Aranca Research Note: Germany population is estimated to reach 81.26 million by 2016 India’s working population to be more than double the total population of the US (361.6 million) by 2030 India’s middle income class to be thrice the total population in Germany by 2016 Rural India’s per capita disposable income set to increase Working population (aged between 15 and 64 years) estimated to increase from 780 million in 2011 to 900 million by 2030 India’s middle income population estimated to reach 267 million by 2016 from 160 million in 2011 Rural India’s per capita disposable income is estimated to rise to USD631 in 2020 from USD411 in 2010 780 900 2011 2030 Working population (In million) CAGR: 0.8% 160 267 2011 2016 Middle income population (In million) CAGR: 10.8% 411 631 2010 2020 Annual per capita disposable income in rural region (USD) CAGR: 4.3%
  • 5. • The engineering sector is delicensed; 100 per cent FDI is allowed in the sector • Due to policy support, there was cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into the sector over April 2000 – February 2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total FDI into the country in that period Growing demand Source: Emami, Estimates by AC Nielsen, Live Mint, Jan 13, Aranca Note: FTMTS - First Time Modern Trade Shoppers Growing demand • Rising incomes and growing youth population have been key growth drivers of the sector • Brand consciousness has also aided demand • First Time Modern Trade Shoppers spend is estimated to triple to USD1 billion by 2015 • Tier II/III cities are witnessing faster growth in modern trade Attractive opportunities • Low penetration levels in rural market offers room for growth • Disposable income in rural India has increased due to the direct cash transfer scheme • Growing demand for premium products • Exports is another growth segment Policy support • Investment approval of up to 100 per cent foreign equity in single brand retail and 51 per cent in multi-brand retail • Initiatives like Food Security Bill and direct cash transfer subsidies reach about 40 per cent of households in India Higher investments • Industry has witnessed healthy FDI inflow, as the sector accounted for 2.0 per cent of the country’s total FDI inflow over April 2000 to March 2013 • Many players are expanding into new geographies and categories • Organised retail share is expected to double to 14-18 per cent of the overall retail market by 2015 2011 Rural FMCG market size: USD 12billion 2025E Rural FMCG market size: USD 100billion Advantage India
  • 6. Source: HUL Notes: OTC is over the counter products; ethicals are a range of pharma products FMCG Household care Personal care Food & Beverages Fabric wash, Household cleaners Oral care, hair care, skin care, cosmetics/deodorants, perfumes, feminine hygiene and paper products Health beverages, staples/cereals, bakery products, snacks, chocolates, ice cream, tea/coffee/soft drinks, processed fruits and vegetables, dairy products, and branded flour Health care OTC products and ethicals
  • 7. Source: Dabur Annual Report 2011-12, Economic Times Apr 2013, May 2013, Emami Annual Report 2011-12, Mckinsey Global Institute, Aranca Research FMCG is the fourth largest sector in the Indian economy The FMCG sector has grown at an annual average of about 11 per cent over the last decade Retail market in India is estimated to reach USD450 billion by 2015, with organised retail accounting for a 14–18 per cent share; this is likely to boost revenues of FMCG companies Indian FMCG industry (USD billion) Gross block of FMCG industry (USD billion) Market size of chocolates (USD million) Market size of personal care (USD billion) HUL’s share in FMCG market (Per cent) >50 <3 <100 0.6 9.0 12.5 8.6 1020.4 2.3 36.8 2000 2012-13 (2012) (2010) (2013) (2013) (2011)
  • 8. Source: Booz & Company, Dabur, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Trends in FMCG revenues over the years (USD billion) The FMCG sector in India generated revenues worth USD36.8 billion in 2012, a 5.7 per cent rise compared to the previous year The strong growth in 2012 should come as no surprise given the impressive performance of the sector over the years Over 2006-12, the sector’s revenues posted a CAGR of 15.2 per cent 15.7 17.8 21.3 24.2 30.2 34.8 36.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR: 15.2%
  • 9. Source: Dabur, Aranca Research Market break-up by revenue (2009)‘Food products’ is the leading segment, accounting for 43.0 per cent of the overall market Personal care (22.0 per cent) and fabric care (12.0 per cent) are the other leading segments 43% 22% 12% 8% 4% 4% 2% 5% Food products Personal care Fabric care Hair care Households OTC products Baby care Others
  • 10. Source: Dabur, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Urban- rural revenue break-up (2011)The urban segment is the largest contributor to the sector, accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue Semi-urban and rural segments are growing at a rapid pace; they currently account for 33.5 per cent of revenues FMCG products account for 53.0 per cent of total rural spending 66.5% 33.5% Urban Rural
  • 11. Source: Mckinsey Global Institute April 2010, Aranca Research The shift of households from the deprived and aspirers category having income less than USD1,985.9 per annum to the seekers and strivers category having income between USD4,413.1 and USD22,065.3 per annum will change the outlook for the industry over the coming years The number of middle class households (earning between USD4,413.1 and USD22,065.3 per annum) will increase more than fourfold to 148 million by 2030 from 32 million in 2010 It is estimated that the population earning more than USD22,065.3 per annum would increase from 1 per cent in 2008 to 3 per cent by 2020 and 7 per cent by 2030 The rising number of middle class and the rich has accelerated the purchase of premium products All India household by income bracket (2010) 1% 3% 7%2% 6% 17% 12% 25% 29% 35% 40% 32% 50% 26% 15% Deprived (<1985.9) Aspirers (1985.9 - 4413.1) Seekers (4413.1 - 11032.7) Strivers (11032.7 - 22065.3) Globals (>22065.3)2008 2020 2030 Income segmentMillion Household,100% 222 273 322
  • 12. Source: Mckinsey Global Institute: The Bird of gold AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Annual per capita disposable income level in rural region (USD) In 2012, rural India accounted for more than 33 per cent of the total FMCG market Total rural income, which is currently at around USD572 billion, is projected to reach USD1.8 trillion by FY21 During 2010-20, annual per capita disposable income in the rural region is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 4.4 per cent to USD631 As income levels are rising, there is also a clear uptrend in the share of non-food expenditure in rural India Share of non-food expenditure in rural India rose from 36.0 per cent in FY08 to 46.4 per cent in FY10 411 516 631 2010 2015 2020
  • 13. Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research, Dabur Reports Note: * - MAT, MAT - Moving Annual turnover FMCG industry Rural (USD billion)The Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector in rural and semi-urban India is estimated to cross USD20 billion by 2018 and USD100 billion by 2025 During September 2011 to September 2012, FMCG Moving Annual Turnover (MAT) increased 16.4 per cent to USD11.7 billion in rural areas 10.0 11.7 Sep '11* Sep '12* CAGR: 16.4%
  • 14. Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Notes: UR - Urban Rural Growth in urban and rural FMCG markets (2011)The urban FMCG market in India has been growing at a fairly steady and healthy rate over the years; encouragingly, the growth in rural markets has been more fast-paced During FY11, more than 80 per cent of FMCG products posted faster growth in rural markets as compared to urban ones Notable high growth sectors include salty snacks, refined edible oil, healthcare products, iodised salt etc. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Biscuits Refinedoils Saltysnacks Non-refinedoils Toiletsoaps Washingpowder Packagedtea Iodisedsalt Hairoils Shampoo Urban Rural UR Growth %
  • 15. Source: Dabur, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Penetration levels of few top selling FMCG (2011)Hair oils, toothpastes and shampoos have significantly high penetration in both urban and rural markets Instant noodles, floor cleaners and hair dyes are picking up in the rural areas due to increased awareness 42% 37% 67% 18% 18% 3% 2% 4% 77% 57% 80% 32% 59% 19% 5% 26% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Toothpaste Shampoo Hairoil Skin cream Mosquito repellent Instant noodles Hair dye Floor cleaner Urban Rural
  • 16. Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Sales channel breakdown (2010)A total of 7.8 million retail outlets sell FMCG in India Grocers are the dominant retail format, accounting for 59.0 per cent 59% 13% 8% 6% 3% 6% 5% Grocers General stores Chemists Paan plus Food stores Modern trade Others
  • 17. Source: Economic times 1 May, 22 May 2013 Note: * - Calculated in terms of Indian rupee Sales (USD million)Consumer products manufacturers ITC, Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL), Dabur and Marico reported healthy net sales in FY13 GCPL’s net sales increased from USD1,011.9 million in FY12 to USD1,176.7 million in FY13 Dabur and Marico’s net sales surged 16.3 per cent* and 15.5 per cent*, respectively During FY13, ITC’s (Foods) net sales increased to USD847 million from USD774.3 million in the previous year Aggregate financial performance of the leading 10 FMCG companies over the past eight quarters displays that the industry has grown at an average 16-21 per cent in the past two years 1,011.9 1,102.0 827.7 829.6 774.3 1,176.7 1,131.7 844.1 824.9 847.0 0 500 1000 1500 GCPL Dabur Marico HUL (F&B) ITC (Foods) FY13 FY12
  • 18. Market Leader Others Hair Oil 42% 15% 8% 5% Shampoo 46% 24% 10% 6% Oral care 50% 23% 13% Skin care 59% 7% 7% 6% Fruit juice 52% 35% Source: Industry estimates
  • 19. Source: Aranca Research Consolidation • Indian FMCG companies are consolidating their existing business portfolios Product innovation • Several companies have started innovating or customising their existing product portfolios for new consumer segments Brand consciousness • Consumers are becoming more brand conscious and prefer lifestyle and premium range products given their increasing disposable income Expanding horizons • A number of companies are exploring the business potential of overseas markets and several regional markets Backward integration • Backward integration is becoming the preferred strategy for increasing profit margins Focus on rural market • Companies are now focusing on the rural market segment which is growing at a rapid pace and contributes about 33 per cent to the total FMCG market Expanding distribution networks • Companies are now focused on improving their distribution networks to expand their reach in rural India
  • 20. Third-party manufacturing • This approach has helped FMCG companies focus on front-end marketing • Reservation of several items for SSI as well as additional tax incentives have made third party manufacturing a popular route for many big players Rising importance of smaller-sized packs • Companies are increasingly introducing smaller stock keeping units at reduced prices. This helps them to sustain margins, maintain volumes from price-conscious customers and expand their consumer base Increased hiring from tier II/III cities • Small towns are emerging as significant hiring zones. FMCG companies are hiring field staff from areas such as Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh), Mangaliya (Madhya Pradesh), Kota (Rajasthan), and Shirdi (Maharashtra) to sell diverse products Focus on enhancing presence in Africa • FMCG companies entering Africa as it helps to be close to consumption markets within Africa • Such foreign investments are encouraged by local governments, as they offer incentives to enter the markets Reducing carbon footprint and eco- friendly products • FMCG players in India are increasingly focussing on reducing their carbon footprint by creating eco-friendly products. They generate the required energy from renewable sources and earn CER credits for the same Increasing private label penetration • With the rise of retail players, private label has become popular in the FMCG space. Private Label goods are considered substitutes of premium branded goods Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Notes: CER - Certified Emission Reductions; SSI - Small Scale Industry
  • 21. Source: Aranca Research Notes: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment Rising incomes driving purchase Desire to experiment with brands Evolving consumer lifestyle New product launches Growth of modern trade Availability of online channel to shop Increasing consumer demand Greater awareness of products, brands FMCG growth drivers
  • 22. Source: IMF, Aranca Research Notes: F - Forecasted, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate India’s nominal per capita income (USD)Incomes have risen at a brisk pace in India and will continue rising given the country’s strong economic growth prospects. According to the IMF, nominal per capita income is estimated to have recorded a CAGR of 11.2 per cent over 2000–12 An important consequence of rising incomes is growing appetite for premium products, primarily in the urban segment As the proportion of ‘working age population’ in total population increases, per capita income and GDP are expected to surge -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Gross domestic product per capita, current prices Growth
  • 23. Source: NREGA, Aranca Research Notes: MSP is Minimum Support Price, NREGA is National Rural Employment Guarantee Act Total funds released by govt. for NREGA (USD billion) The Indian government has been supporting the rural population with higher MSPs, loan waivers, and disbursements through the NREGA programme These measures have helped in reducing poverty in rural India and have thus propped up rural purchasing power During FY09-14, funds allocations to NREGA expanded at a CAGR of 15.6 per cent to USD6.1 billion 3.5 8.2 8.8 6.5 7.4 6.1 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
  • 24. Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Contribution of private label in modern trade (2011)Growing awareness, easier access, and changing lifestyles has meant growing consumer spending in modern retail stores Spending at modern retail stores in India shot up by 31 per cent in 2011 compared to the previous year Modern retail spending is expected to shoot up to USD5 billion in 2015 from USD1.8 billion in 2011 37% 27% 23% 23% 22% 17% 17% 15% 13% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Packaged rice Floor cleanser Tissue paper Glass cleansers Packaged atta Phenyls Bread Toilet cleansers Packaged ghee Jams and jelly
  • 25. Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Low Income Value Explorers spending (USD billion)In 2012, 10 million LIVE households, earning an income of less than USD1,325.7 on annual basis, living in urban India spent one-fifth of their household expenditures (USD2.4 billion) on FMCG in 2012 This shopper segment is estimated to boost FMCG sales to USD3.6 billion by 2015 2.4 3.6 2012 2015 CAGR: 14.4%
  • 26. Source: AC Nielsen, Aranca Research First Time Modern Trade Shoppers spending (USD million) FTMTS spending on FMCG products is estimated to triple to USD1,000 million by 2015 from USD280 million in 2012 FTMTS spends 35 per cent on FMCG at modern trade and is growing by 15 per cent each year This shopper segment will drive growth of the FMCG sector 280 1000 2012 2015 CAGR: 53.0%
  • 27. Source: DIPP, Aranca Research Cumulative FDI inflows (USD million)The sector has been witnessing healthy FDI inflows over the years; during FY01-13, FMCG accounted for 2.0 per cent of total inflows Within FMCG, food processing was the largest recipient; its share was 46.6 per cent 1811.1 865.5 632.4 384.9 101.2 95.4 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 Food processing Paper, pulp Soap, cosmetics Vegetable oil Tea,Coffee Retail trading
  • 28. Goods and service tax (GST) • GST for the purpose of integrating multiple indirect taxes under a unified tax system is likely to be implemented in 2013 • The rate of GST on services is likely to be 16 per cent and on goods is proposed to be 20 per cent Excise duty • The current excise duty is 12 per cent • However, for consumers, it is expected that there will be more money to spend on FMCG products as income tax exemptions limits have been hiked to INR200,000 Relaxation of license rules • Industrial license is not required for almost all food and agro-processing industries, barring certain items such as beer, potable alcohol and wines, cane sugar, and hydrogenated animal fats and oils as well as items reserved for exclusive manufacture in the small-scale sector Statutory Minimum Price • In October 2009, the government amended the Sugarcane Control Order, 1966, and replaced the Statutory Minimum Price (SMP) of sugarcane with Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) and the State-Advised Price (SAP) FDI in organised retail • The government recently approved 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail, which will boost the nascent organised retail market in the country • It also allowed 100 per cent FDI in the cash and carry segment and in single-brand retail Source: Aranca Research
  • 29. Source: Aranca Research Goods and Service Tax (GST) System changes and transition management • Changes need to be made to accounting and IT systems in order to record transactions in line with GST requirements and appropriate measures need to be taken to ensure smooth transition to the GST Supply chain structure • Introduction of GST as a unified tax regime will lead to a re-evaluation of procurement and distribution arrangements • Removal of excise duty on products would result in cash flow improvements Cash flow • Tax refunds on goods purchased for resale implies a significant reduction in the inventory cost of distribution • Distributors are also expected to experience cash flow from collection of GST in their sales, before remitting it to the government at the end of the tax- filing period Pricing and profitability • Elimination of tax cascading is expected to lower input costs and improve profitability • Application of tax at all points of supply chain is likely to require adjustments to profit margins, especially for distributors and retailers
  • 30. Source: Company websites, Bloomberg, Aranca Research Target name (segment) Acquirer name (segment) Merger/ Acquisition United Spirits Diageo Plc. Acquisition Keyline Brands Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Acquisition Hobi Kozmetik, Turkey Dabur Acquisition L.D. Waxson, Singapore Wipro Consumer Acquisition Halite Personal Care India Private Limited (Personal Care ) Marico Ltd (Food and Personal Care) Acquisition Paras Pharma (Personal Care) Marico Ltd (Food and Personal Care) Acquisition Namaste group (Personal Care) Dabur (Food) Acquisition Cosmetica Nacional (Cosmetics) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Acquisition CC Health Care Products Pvt Ltd (Cosmetics) Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd (Cosmetics and Toiletries) Acquisition Eastern Condiments Pvt Ltd (Food-Misc/Diversified) McCormick & Co Inc (Food-Misc/Diversified) Acquisition Vietnam Spice Unit (Food and beverages) Bafna Enterprises (Food and Beverages) Acquisition Noble Hygiene Pvt Ltd (Household and Personal Products) Bennett Coleman & Co Ltd (Publishing) Acquisition Hobi Kozmetik, Turkey (Personal Care Products) Dabur India (Personal Care) Acquisition
  • 31. Target name (segment) Acquirer name (segment) Merger/ Acquisition Argencos, Argentina (Hair Care Products) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (Home and Personal Care) Acquisition Lotte India Corp Ltd (Food) Lotte Confectionery Co Ltd, South Korea (Food) Acquisition Megasari, Indonesia (Soap and cleaning products ) GCPL (Home and personal care) Acquisition Issue Group, Argentina (Hair products) GCPL (Home and personal care) Acquisition Tura, Nigeria (Soap and cleaning products ) GCPL (Home and personal care) Acquisition Tern Distilleries Pvt Ltd (beverages - wine/spirits) United Spirits Ltd (beverages) Acquisition Vale Do Ivai SA Acucar E Alcool (sugar and ethanol) Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd (food) Acquisition Greenol Laboratories Pvt Ltd (tea) Asian Tea & Exports Ltd (food - tea) Acquisition Olyana Holding LLC (tea) UK-based Borelli Tea Holdings Ltd, a wholly-owned unit of Mcleod Russel India Ltd Acquisition Garden Namkeens Pvt Ltd (food - misc.) Cavinkare Pvt Ltd (food) Acquisition Bacardi Martini India Ltd’s 26 per cent shares from Gemini Distillery Private Ltd (beverages) Bacardi Martini BV, Netherlands (beverages) Acquisition Godrej Hygiene Care Pvt Ltd (home care) Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (home care) Merger Britannia New Zealand Foods Pvt Ltd (joint venture partner Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd) (food) Britannia Industries Ltd (food) Acquisition Source: Bloomberg, Aranca Research
  • 32. Source: Company Reports, Economic Times, May 6 2013, Business Standard, Aranca Research Note: CAGR is calculated on INR Sales (In USD million) 146 163 216 274 303 313 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 CAGR*: 16.5% Salient features • Niche category player and innovator • Key brands are strong market leaders in their respective categories • Portfolio includes Zandu, one of the strongest Ayurvedic brands • Over 80 per cent of business comes from wellness categories • Company’s sales increased at a CAGR of 16.5 per cent between FY08 and FY13
  • 33. Source: Company Reports, Brand Equity Survey of Economic Times, 2012, Aranca Research Strategy to drive revenue Celebrity promotion New geographies Brand extension Rural reach Product innovation Leveraging existing distribution network Differentiated ‘value for money’ products Awards and recognitions • Among Asia's 'Best Under A Billion' 2010 list of companies compiled by Forbes magazine • Emami’s Zandu Balm, Navratna and Boroplus were ranked among the top 20 brands in the country • Ranked 125th among BT (Business Today) Most Valuable Companies of India in private Sector • Ranked 272nd among Fortune 500 India’s largest corporations on profitability
  • 34. Source: Company Reports, Business Standard, May 1 2013, Aranca Research Sales (In USD million) 586.7 611.0 715.2 894.7 1,102.0 1,131.7 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 CAGR: 14.0% Salient features • Among top four FMCG companies in India • 10 brands with sales worth over USD20 million each • Wide distribution network covering 2.8 million retailers across the country • 17 world-class manufacturing plants catering to needs of diverse markets • Over 30 per cent of revenues generated from international markets
  • 35. Source: Company Report, Aranca Research Strategy Expand AcquireInnovate Awards and recognitions • Dabur ranked second in the Indian green brand by Green brands global survey • Ranked among the top five ‘Best companies to work for’ in the manufacturing sector by business today • Ranked 53rd among the world’s top 100 beauty companies in ‘WWD Beauty Inc.’s top 100’ 2012 • Ranked 33 in India’s 100 most valuable brands, 2012 by 4Ps Business and Marketing magazine • Ranked 184 in Fortune India 500 list • Ranked 78 in Super-100 (Business India) • Ranked 45 among Most Trusted Brands in India (Brand Trust Report, India Study, 2011) • Dabur Uveda range of Ayurvedic skin care products listed amongst the '30 New Beauty Finds' by India Today Woman • During FY12, Dabur ranked as the second-most ‘Social Brand of India’.
  • 36. Source: Company Reports, Business Standard May 17 2013, Aranca Research Sales (In USD million) 125.3 228.8 376.3 624.0 656.5 768.2 983.5 1,156.7 1,506.2 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 CAGR: 36.5% Salient features • ITC is one of the foremost company in private sector in terms of sustained value creation, operating profits and cash profits • It is the only India-based FMCG company to feature in Forbes 2000 List • ITC is a market leader in its traditional businesses of Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards, Packaging and Agri- Exports • The company is rapidly gaining market share even in its nascent businesses of Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Personal Care and Stationery • Its Agri-Business is one of India's largest exporters of agricultural products • ITC’s sales increased at a CAGR of 36.5 per cent between FY05 and FY13
  • 37. Awards and recognitions • Featured in the Forbes list of Asia's'Fab 50' and the World's Most Reputable Companies • ITC has won the inaugural 'World Business Award” by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) • It is the first company in India and the second in the world to win the prestigious Development Gateway Award • ITC has won the Golden Peacock Awards for 'Corporate Social Responsibility (Asia)' in 2007 • Harvard Business Review awarded company’s CEO Y C Deveshwar as the 7th best performing CEO in the World ITC: Select launches FY12 • Bingo ! Tangles • Sunfeast Dream Cream • Fiama Di Wills Men • Vivel Face Washes • Classmate Stripes • Paperkraft Signature Series • Fragrance of Temples Source: Company Reports, Aranca Research
  • 38. Source: Assorted articles and reports; AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Rural market • Leading players of consumer products have a strong distribution network in rural India; they also stand to gain from the contribution of technological advances such as internet and e-commerce to better logistics • Rural FMCG market size is expected to touch USD100 billion by 2025 Innovative products • Indian consumers are highly adaptable to new and innovative products. For instance there has been an easy acceptance of men’s fairness creams, flavoured yoghurt, and cuppa mania noodles Premium products • With rise disposable incomes mid- and high-income consumers in urban areas have shifted their purchase trend from essential to premium products • In response, firms have started enhancing their premium products portfolio Sourcing base • Indian and multinational FMCG players can leverage India as a strategic sourcing hub for cost-competitive product development and manufacturing to cater to international markets Penetration • Low penetration levels offer room for growth across consumption categories • Majors players are focusing on rural markets to increase their penetration in those areas
  • 39. Source: Emami Investor Presentation June 12, Aranca Research Penetration of many product categories is still low. Even among those where the penetration is higher, per capita consumption is comparatively low, thereby offering scope for high growth in future Penetration of products such as toilet soap and washing powder is high in the country, but that of some major products, including toothpaste, fairness cream, antiseptic cream and cold cream, is just 17 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively Category penetration in India (2012) 95.6% 92.3% 88.6% 74.2% 64.3% 55.7% 51.6% 17.1% 1.7% 1.3% Toiletsoap WashingPowder DetergentBar Hairoil Toothpaste Shampoo TalcumPowder Fairnesscream Antisepticcream Coldcream
  • 40. Source: Dabur Investor Presentation Feb 13, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research Per capita consumption of toothpaste in 2012 (In USD) India offers huge opportunity for the FMCG market compared to its regional counterparts Per capita consumption of skincare products (USD0.3), shampoos (USD0.3) and toothpastes (USD0.4) indicates high potential for FMCG companies to expand their reach 0.4 0.5 1 2 2.9 India China Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Per capita consumption of shampoo in 2012 (In USD) 0.3 1 1.1 2.4 2.7 India China Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Per capita consumption of skincare in 2012 (In USD) 0.3 0.8 3.2 7.4 7.7 India Indionesia China Malaysia Thailand
  • 41. Source: TCS Report, AC Nielsen, Aranca Research FMCG share in modern retailGrowth of India’s FMCG purchased through modern trade is surpassing growth of FMCG purchased in general trade In 2012, market size of the organised FMCG sector was 6 per cent of the overall organised retail market and is expected to reach 30 per cent by 2020. This represents the influence of modern retail over the FMCG sector FMCG companies are partnering with major retail players to increase brand communication and boost their share in modern retail 6% 94% 2012 30% 70% 2020 Modern Traditional
  • 42. Indian Dairy Association Secretary (Establishment) Indian Dairy Association, Sector-IV, New Delhi –110022 Phone: 91-11-26170781, 26165355, 26179780; Fax: 91 11 26174719 E-mail: ida@nde.vsnl.net.in Website: www.indairyasso.org All India Bread Manufacturers’ Association PHD House, 4/2, Siri Institutional Area, August Kranti Marg, New Delhi –110016 Phone: 91-11-26515137; Fax: 91-11-26855450 E-mail: aibma@rediffmail.com; mallika@phdcci.in Website: www.aibma.com All India Food Preservers’ Association 206, Aurobindo Place Market Complex Hauz Khas, New Delhi –110016 Phone: 91-11-26510860, 26518848; Fax: 91-11-26510860 Website: www.aifpa.net
  • 43. Federation of Biscuit Manufacturers of India PHD House, 4/2, Siri Institutional Area, August Kranti Marg, New Delhi –110016 Phone: 91-11-26515137; Fax: 91-11-26855450 E-mail: fbmi@rediffmail.com; mallika@phdcci.in Website: www.biscuitfederation.com Indian Soap & Toiletries Manufacturers’ Association Raheja Centre, 6th Floor, Room No 614, Backbay Reclamation, Mumbai – 400021 Phone: 91-22-2824115; Fax: 91-22-22853649 E-mail: istma@bom3.vsnl.net.in Indian Soft Drinks Manufacturers' Association 702, Ansal Bhawan, 16 KG Marg, New Delhi – 110001 Phone: 91-11-46470200; Fax: 91-11-23327747
  • 44. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India 142, Jolly Maker Chambers, No 2, 14th Floor, 225, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400021 Tel : 91-22-22021475, 22822979; Fax: 91-22-22021692 E-mail: solvent@mtnl.net.in Website: www.seaofindia.com Vanaspati Manufacturers’ Association of India 903, Akashdeep Building, 26-A, Barakhamba Road, New Delhi –110001 Phone: 91-11-23312640; Fax: 91-11-23315698
  • 45. FDI: Foreign Direct Investment MSP: Minimum Selling Price NREGA: National Rural Employment Guarantee Act FY: Indian financial year (April to March) So FY09 implies April 2008 to March 2009 SEZ: Special Economic Zone MoU: Memorandum of Understanding Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
  • 46. Year INR equivalent of one US$ 2004-05 44.95 2005-06 44.28 2006-07 45.28 2007-08 40.24 2008-09 45.91 2009-10 47.41 2010-11 45.57 2011-12 47.94 2012-13 54.31 Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year) Year INR equivalent of one US$ 2005 45.55 2006 44.34 2007 39.45 2008 49.21 2009 46.76 2010 45.32 2011 45.64 2012 54.69 2013 54.45 Exchange Rates (Calendar Year) Average for the year
  • 47. India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by Aranca in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.