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2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report
1. Joe Reagor, (949) 720-7106
jreagor@roth.com
Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
COMPANY NOTE | EQUITY RESEARCH | February 24, 2020
Resources
New Pacific Metals Corp. | NUAG.V - C$6.00 - TSXV | Buy
Company Update
Stock Data
52-Week Low - High C$1.66 - C$6.98
Shares Out. (mil) 147.44
Mkt. Cap.(mil) C$884.66
3-Mo. Avg. Vol. 144,413
12-Mo.Price Target C$6.25
Cash (mil) C$42.3
Tot. Debt (mil) C$0.0
Cash (mil): Cash is as of last published quarter and excludes any
additional capital raises. Cash also includes short-term investments.
EPS C$
Yr Jun —2018— —2019— —2020E—
Curr Curr Prev
1Q (0.01)A (0.01)A 0.01A 0.01A
2Q (0.01)A 0.00A (0.01)A 0.00 E
3Q 0.00A 0.00A 0.00E 0.00E
4Q (0.01)A (0.02)A 0.00E 0.00E
YEAR (0.03)A (0.02)A (0.01)E 0.00 E
Revenue (C$ millions)
Yr Jun —2018— —2019— —2020E—
Curr Curr
1Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0A
2Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0A
3Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0E
4Q 0.0A 0.0A 0.0E
YEAR 0.0A 0.0A 0.0E
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
PriceVol (m)
NUAG.V One-Year Price and Volume History
NUAG.V: Final 2019 Drill Holes Show Higher
Grade
On February 19, 2020, NUAG released its final round of drill results from its
2019 drill campaign. The final 37 holes showed higher average grades as
compared to the average grade of all prior results at the project. We view this
as positive and believe the next major catalyst for the company should be an
initial resource estimate. As such, we are maintaining our Buy rating and CAD
$6.25 price target.
Final 2019 assays show higher average grades. On February 19, 2020,
NUAG released its final assay results from its 2019 drill program. The results
were from 37 additional drill holes and included holes from both Silver Sand
Main and Snake Hole. Of the 37 holes, 35 showed significant intervals of
mineralization with an average thickness of 49.9 meters and an average grade
of 128.8 g/t silver per hole. We note the interval average was slightly below
the historical average while the grades were approximately 30% higher.
Initial resource estimate should be next major catalyst. With all of the
2019 drill assays received, we believe NUAG will work to complete an initial
resource estimate in late Q1 or early Q2 2020. We continue to estimate an
initial resource estimate of 250 million ounces of silver with an average grade
of 90+ g/t, but believe this could prove conservative depending on pit shape
and cutoff grade assumptions. Thus, we believe the initial resource estimate
could provide a significant positive catalyst for the company.
Maintaining rating and target. In this report we also updated for NUAG's
recent financial results for fiscal Q2 2020, which we view as insignificant.
Additionally, we have not made any changes to our expectations around
NUAG's initial resource estimate. Thus, we are maintaining our Buy rating and
CAD$6.25 price target.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 5 to 6 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
2. VALUATION
We note NUAG is at an earlier stage than the majority of the other mining companies we cover, but believe
the company’s Silver Sand asset is too unique to ignore until further information becomes available. We base
our valuation of NUAG off of the expectation of an initial resource of 250 million ounces of silver or more.
We believe a resource of this magnitude and at the grades NUAG has seen to date would likely trade at a
premium to other early-stage silver assets. Thus, we are assigning a value of USD$2.00 per ounce to our
minimum expected resource of 250 million ounces of silver to arrive at a project value of CAD$650 million. To
this we add CAD$48.5 million in cash and equivalents as of the end of fiscal Q2 2020 and CAD$250 million for
potential upside to our resource estimate and further exploration potential across the company's land package.
Thus, we arrive at a total value of CAD$948.5 million or CAD$6.17 per share fully diluted. We round this up to
reach our CAD$6.25 price target and we are maintaining our Buy rating. While we note that our valuation of
NUAG falls outside ROTH's definition of a Buy rating, we have elected to maintain our Buy rating as we believe
the company's coming catalysts are likely to be viewed positively by the market. We intend to reevaluate our
price target once the company provides an initial resource estimate, which we expect to be released in the
next 90 days.
Factors that could cause NUAG's valuation to differ from our price target include, but are not limited to:
unexpected dilutive transactions, variance from our resource expectations, regulatory decisions, drill results
that differ from expectations, unexpected delays, unexpected technical issues, and other unforeseeable
events.
RISKS
Political risk. Natural resource companies are subject to significant political risk. Although most mining
jurisdictions have known laws, potential exists for these laws to change. As a Bolivia focused company, NUAG
has slightly higher political risk than other similar stage mining companies.
Commodity price risk. All natural resource companies have some form of commodity price risk. This risk
is not only related to final products, but can also be in regards to input costs and substitute goods. NUAG’s
biggest commodity price risk is to that of silver, but the company also has exposure to input costs such as
energy.
Operational and technical risk. Natural resources companies have significant operational and technical
risks. Despite completing NI 43-101 compliant (or similar) resource estimates, deposits can still vary
significantly compared to expectations. Additionally, numerous unforeseeable issues can occur with operations
and exploration activities. Given the early-stage nature of the Silver sand project, SVM has significantly greater
technical risk to other later-stage exploration companies.
Pre-revenue risk. New Pacific is a pre-revenue company and is likely to need significant additional capital in
order to reach positive cash flow. There is also no guarantee the company will ever become cash flow positive.
Market risk. Although most natural resource companies are more closely tied to individual commodity price
performance, large business cycle forces or economic crises can impact a company’s valuation significantly.
NUAG has similar market risk to other precious metals companies.
Cautionary Note to US Investors: Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources
“Measured Mineral Resources” and “Indicated Mineral Resources.” US investors are advised that although
these terms are required by Canadian regulations, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does
not recognize them, and describes the equivalent as “Mineralized Material.” US investors are cautioned not
to assume that these terms are any form of guarantee.
“Inferred Mineral Resources.” US Investors are advised that while this term is required by Canadian
regulations, the SEC does not recognize it. “Inferred Mineral Resources” are not delineated with a great deal
of certainty and should not be considered likely to be brought into production in whole or in part.
Page 2 of 6
NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
3. COMPANY DESCRIPTION
New Pacific Metals Corp. is a Canada-based mineral exploration and development company. It is a mining
issuer company engaged in exploring and developing mineral properties in Bolivia, Canada and China.
The Company’s projects are Silver Sand Property, Tagish Lake Gold Property and RZY Silver-Lead-Zinc
Project. The Silver Sand Property is located in the Potos Department, Bolivia. The property consists of 17
contiguous concessions totalling 3.15 square kilometers. The Tagish Lake Gold Property is located in Yukon
Territory, Canada, and consists of 1,510 mining claims with three identified gold and gold-silver mineral
deposits: Skukum Creek, Goddell Gully and Mount Skukum. The RZY Silver-Lead-Zinc Project is an early
stage silver-lead-zinc exploration project located in Qinghai, China. The RZY Project is located approximately
296 kilometers from the capital city of Yushu. New Pacific Investment Corp is the Company’s wholly-owned
subsidiary.Source: Refinitiv as of 2/23/2020
Page 3 of 6
NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
5. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies
the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views
about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or
will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Disclosures:
Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from New Pacific Metals
Corp..
Shares of New Pacific Metals Corp. and Silvercorp Metals Inc. may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission's
Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities.
Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for New Pacific Metals Corp..
ROTH makes a market in shares of Silvercorp Metals Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis.
Rating and Price Target History for: New Pacific Metals Corp. (NUAG.V) as of 02-21-2020
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1
02/15/18
I:B:$3
06/07/19
B:$3.5
08/29/19
B:$4.25
12/02/19
B:$5.5
01/13/20
B:$6.25
Created by: BlueMatrix
Rating and Price Target History for: Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM) as of 02-21-2020
6
5
4
3
2
1
2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1
08/28/17
I:B:$3.5
11/09/17
B:$3.8
05/29/18
B:$4.25
08/12/19
B:$4.5
09/04/19
B:$5.25
11/11/19
B:$5.5
02/10/20
B:$6
Created by: BlueMatrix
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a
rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years.
Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate
received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month.
Distribution of IB Services Firmwide
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Page 5 of 6
NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020
6. as of 02/24/20
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
Buy [B] 260 75.36 149 57.31
Neutral [N] 42 12.17 19 45.24
Sell [S] 5 1.45 2 40.00
Under Review [UR] 35 10.14 17 48.57
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any
given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12-
month price target.
Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following:
Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least
10% over the next 12 months.
Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between
negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate
by more than 10% over the next 12 months.
Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the
prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied
upon for UR-rated securities.
Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security.
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business
relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and
facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from
sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used
as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon
request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are
subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high
degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the
express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2020. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 6 of 6
NEW PACIFIC METALS CORP. Company Note - February 24, 2020