Thanks to globalization and the emergence and wide spread of new technologies, the world has become a very interconnected place during the past decades. This change has happened and is happening at an ever increasing speed.As a consequence, management and leadership have become increasingly challenging to deal with the resulting complexity. To succeed, traditional approaches to management and leadership are not enough. We need to continuously grow and adapt our leadership capabilities.In this Session you will learn how to cope with this challenge. I will share stories, insights and tools that will help you to increase your leadership bandwidth, making you better prepared for leading in a complex world.One key element is a decent understanding of Systems Thinking, Human System Dynamics and Complex Adaptive Systems theory. All these are very inspiring, yet as a leader I had difficulties to translate these into something actionable and useful in my daily life. And talking to many others (not only leaders) I found that many people share that challenge. So, in this talk you will learn about tools that enable you to deal with complexity from a leadership perspective. I will share stories about how these tools have helped me and my team. You will also learn how to embrace the mindset shift related to Agile and you will learn how to take better decisions using modern leadership approaches. This talk is based on my own experiences as a leader in an agile transformation (2000+ people) and the great inspirations I got from working and discussing with my group colleagues from the Supporting Agile Adoption program (one of the programs sponsored by the Agile Alliance).

1. Hendrik Esser
@HendrikEsser
VP
Operations & Programs
Program Director
Supporting Agile Adoption
Leading
In a Complex World
Agile 2015, Washington

2. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 2
Leadership? Management?
We have tried so many things…
Why do we not get the desired
results?
A better approach
- Some theory & models
- A tool
- Examples
Q&A

3. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 3
› Leadership is about connecting and aligning people with
vision and purpose.
› Management is about planning and taking action to get to
the shared vision and achieve a purpose.
› All of us do both.
Leadership & Management

4. so many things…

5. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 5
› 1980s/90s: Scaling by specifying processes, roles, detailed
work instructions, …
› 90s/00s: improvement programs to fix issues (Q, TTM)
– World Class Provisioning
– 2x better quality
– 10x better quality
– 1/2 TTM
– Re-organization
› Looking over and over and over and over and over and
over again into our processes and organizational structure
We tried . . .
. . . to be competitive

6. not get the desired
results?

7. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 7
Are we able to learn?
Real
world
Decision Results
Decision
guidelines
Idea how the
world works

8. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 8
The world is changing …
… but it has always been changing!
So: what is different today?

9. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 9
2010 2015
Mobile Data Traffic

10. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 10
Smartphones
2014 2017 2020
Asia Pacific
ME & Africa

11. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 11
Amount of available information
New challenge
Speed of information flow
???
Technological advancements

12. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 12
SocietyTechnology
With a growing impact of technology on society, the responsibility of
people creating the new fantastic technology for the planet grows!
 Corporate responsibility & sustainability
 How will society and companies cope with these challenges?
Mobile communication
Mobile data
Social networks
Bandwidth
Big data
3D Printers
Internet of Things
Info flood
Trustworthiness
Data security
Privacy
Safety
Vulnerability

13. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 13

14. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 14
Strategy & vision
X

15. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 15
>

16. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 16
Rapidly changing complex eco-system
This can’t be controlled by a few people
 Decentralized approach
Raplex
Picture from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nasa_blue_marble.jpg

17. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 17
Do you mean
we need to
decentralize
leadership and
management?
Hmm…
How do we then
integrate these
decentralized
efforts?
Yes?
But
Hendrik!
Well, I think it
already is!!
And how do we
align towards a
company’s vision
& purpose?

18. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 18
The people in a company form a
complex
adaptive
human system

19. Work on the system

20. theory & models

21. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 21
Ludwig Wittgenstein

22. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 22
Cynefin
Dave Snowden, HBR Article, Nov 2007
OBVIOUS
COMPLICATEDCOMPLEX
CHAOTIC
sense-categorize-respond
sense-analyze-respondprobe-sense-respond
act-sense-respond
DISORDER
best practice
good practiceemergent practice
novel practice

23. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 23
emerge

24. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 24
Basic, self-similar building blocks of systems:
Containers
Differences
Exchanges
Human Systems
Dynamics

25. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 25
CDE example

26. How can we
practically
make use of this?

27. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 27
Become system-aware
Excel in learning fast
Adapt your system to
changing conditions

28. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 28
Learning cycle
Look at the system
Analyze:
- Is your vision still valid?
- What supports your vision
- What doesn’t
Take change actions
Define a
change experiment
See what emerges

29. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 29
How can you act on your system?

30. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 30
All societies have shared rules/constraints.
They are either set or they emerge.
 In a company we usually set and manage constraints
Leading via Constraints

31. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 31
Constraints?
People
Processes
Structures
Behavior
Capabilities
Interdependencies
asystemofconstraints

32. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 32
Human System Action Tool
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
desired
state
or
problem
statement

33. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 33
Human System Action Tool
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
desired
state
or
problem
statement
Behavior
Mindset/attitude
Values
Needs
Competence
Skills
# people
Hidden talent
Processes
Practices
Tools
Habits
Organization
Governance
Compensation
Roles
(Informal) networks

34. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 34
Learning cycle
Look at the system
Analyze:
- Is your vision still valid?
- What supports your vision
- What doesn’t
Take change actions
Define a
change experiment
See what emerges

35. Deal professionally with
uncertainty

36. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 36
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
Communicate
Make uncertainty
visible
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Speak up when you see something
unexpected
React constructively
on surprises
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Frequent meetings to
digest updates/new insights
Distributed planning on
different levels
Iterative development
 feedback loop
Communication
structure
Manage expectations
 anticipate expec-
tations & address
them
Translate uncertainty into realistic
expectations (customers, internal
stakeholders)

37. Iteration
1

38. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 38
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
Communicate
Make uncertainty
visible
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Speak up when you see something
unexpected
React constructively
on surprises
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Frequent meetings to
digest updates/new insights
Distributed planning on
different levels
Iterative development
 feedback loop
Communication
structure
Manage expectations
 anticipate expec-
tations & address
them
Translate uncertainty into realistic
expectations (customers, internal
stakeholders)

39. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 39
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Decision model
Portfolio Mgrs

40. Iteration
2

41. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 41
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Heavy debates
in governance
meetings
Teams don’t
support the
ranges
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings

42. Iteration
3

43. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 43
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Some
teams hate
the tool
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
Less debate
in governance
meetings
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”

44. Iteration
4

45. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 45
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Debate:
why can’t we
commit earlier?
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
In
governance
meetings: range is
used to discuss what
we can tell to the customer
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better

46. Iteration
5

47. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 47
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
PdM and
Development
starting to “join forces”
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better
Closely pair PO with
PdMgr

48. Iteration
6

49. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 49
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
We
don’t need
commitment
decisions
any more
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better
Closely pair PO with
PdMgr Make commitment
decisions optional

50. Iteration
7

51. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 51
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
How
could we
manage expectations
more professionally together
with the cutomers?
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better
Closely pair PO with
PdMgr Expectation
management?

52. To be
continued
…

53. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 53
You can’t stop emergence and self-organization
You need to embrace and support it!
Often we are torn apart between
speed (tendency towards command & control) and
emergence (waiting for our company to find our response)
It is a balancing act we need to master.
This is not an easy journey.
Leadership challenge

55. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 55
› Change has always been there and society has always been struggling
with it.
› Due to technological advancements, the speed of information flow and
the amount of information has surpassed human ability to consume,
filter and make sense.
› This calls for “parallel processing”: Centralized management and
leadership can’t work in such an environment.
› The people working in a company form a complex adaptive human
system.
› A company’s results emerge from that human system.
› Leaders need to become system aware and learn how to influence the
system.
› The HSA-Tool is helping to start going that path.

56. Leading in a complex world | Hendrik Esser | © Ericsson AB 2015 | 2015-07-22 | Page 56
Q
A