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Joseph Gilliam

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Joseph Gilliam

  1. 1. A View of the Public Ophthalmology Market & Exit Trends
  2. 2. a A View of the Public Markets & Exit Trends Joe Gilliam, Managing Director Healthcare Investment Banking J.P. Morgan
  3. 3. This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any J.P. Morgan entity to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities or to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by J.P. Morgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of J.P. Morgan. Companies and individuals named are for illustrative purposes only. This information should be treated confidentially. IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters included herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone not affiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties.
  4. 4. 4 Equity market overview Fund flows including ETF ($bn) S&P sector performance 2015YTD Market volatility 2015YTD Q3’15 corporate earnings 12.8% 8.1% 4.7% 1.0% (0.2%) (2.0%) (3.7%) (6.8%) (10.8%) (12.3%) (14.3%) 2.0% Consumer Disc. Info. Technology Healthcare Consumer Staples Financials Industrials Telecom Materials Utilities Energy Transportation S&P 500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 VIX Volatility Index Max 40.7 Aug 24 Min 12.0 Jul 17 YTD avg. 16.7 Last 14.7 Nov 6 Source: FactSet, Lipper, Bloomberg as of 11/06/15 $9 $58 $3 ($56) ($51) ($3) Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Historical fund flows ($bn) 2008-2012 ($140) 2013 $133 2014 $129 2015YTD ($107) Avg. of last 4 weeks ($1) 37% 16% 47% 71% 7% 22% Above Meet Below Revenue EPS S&P 500 companies reported: 440/500
  5. 5. 12.8% 8.1% 4.7% 1.0% (0.2%) (2.0%) (3.7%) (6.8%) (10.8%) (12.3%) (14.3%) 2.0% Consumer Disc. Info. Technology Healthcare Consumer Staples Financials Industrials Telecom Materials Utilities Energy Transportation S&P 500 S&P sector performance 2015YTD Source: FactSet as of 11/06/15 5
  6. 6. Market volatility 2015YTD 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 VIX Volatility Index Max 40.7 Aug 24 Min 12.0 Jul 17 YTD avg. 16.7 Last 14.7 Nov 6 Source: FactSet, Bloomberg as of 11/06/15 6
  7. 7. $9 $58 $3 ($56) ($51) ($3) Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Fund flows including ETF ($bn) Source: Lipper as of 11/06/15 Historical fund flows ($bn) 2008-2012 ($140) 2013 $133 2014 $129 2015YTD ($107) Avg. of last 4 weeks ($1) 7
  8. 8. 37% 16% 47% 71% 7% 22% Above Meet Below S&P 500 companies reported: 440/500 Revenue EPS Q3’15 corporate earnings Source: Bloomberg as of 11/06/15 8
  9. 9. 7 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 1995 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012 2015 (4.4%) 5.0% 8.3% 12.7% 4.5% 9.6% Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 FY 2015FY 2016 Equity market outlook Bulls S&P 500 1-year forward P/E 16x  Positive outlook for U.S. labor & growth  Inflation remains modest  Fed stance remains accommodative  Corporate earnings growth persists  Volatility in the broader markets subsides  Potential Fed tightening first time in 10 years  Uncertainty in China market persists  Commodity market volatility  Global growth concerns  Geopolitical risks Bears J.P. Morgan forecasts a 2,150 S&P 500 year-end price target, 4% above current levels Source: FactSet and Morgan Markets Note: EPS for S&P 500 calculated as the index weighted consensus estimate of EPS based on individual securities’ standard market convention for EPS (US GAAP or Adjusted) S&P 500 consensus EPS estimates YoY% chg
  10. 10. 8 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5-year stock price performance 113% 205% Biotech and medtech trading performance Source: FactSet as of 10/27/15 1 AMEX Biotechnology Index 2 Medtech index consists of medical technology companies traded on North American exchanges with market capitalizations over $500mm 75% Returns summary 5 yr 2 yr YTD Medtech2 31% Biotech1 63% S&P 500 17% 3% 4% 0%
  11. 11. 9 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 225% 10/27/2013 3/22/2014 8/15/2014 1/8/2015 6/3/2015 10/27/2015 2 year performance of ophthalmic sector participants Relative stock price performance +88% +17% +63% +13% +40% Ophth1 53% S&P 500 17% Diversified / Ophth2 30% Source: FactSet as of 10/27/15 1 Ophth index includes Aerie, Alimera, Avalanche, Cooper, Eleven, Glaukos, Inotek, Ocular, Ophthotech, QLT, Santen, Spark, STAAR and ThromboGenics 2 Diversified / Ophth includes Abbott, Allergan, Bayer, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Shire and Valeant 3 Return since June 2015 IPO 3
  12. 12. 10 Medtech M&A activity has remained strong while biopharma M&A activity has picked up M&A transactions Source: Dealogic, EvaluatePharma, press releases, public filings Note: Based on US targets only and excludes deals <$50mm 9 34 27 27 23 25 28 17 21 18 36 42 49 51 32 36 53 52 45 46 50 46 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Biopharma Medtech 2014 - 2015 ophthalmology M&A July ‘15 $125mm + undisclosed contingent August ‘15 $300mm September ‘15 $300mm + undisclosed contingent November ‘14 $66bn
  13. 13. 11 Biopharma lead the IPO market resurgence … IPO activity, 2005 – 2015 YTD Source: Dealogic Note: Includes IPOs > $50mm 7 11 14 0 3 8 4 11 28 64 33 5 5 8 1 1 1 2 1 2 9 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Biopharma Medtech $657 $389 $771 $2,699 $7,086 $4,106 $79 $285 $115 $224 $1,375 $788 Total proceeds raised, 2005 – 2015 YTD($mm) $1,217 $199 $0 $51 $1,137 $1,259 $1,749 $665 $585 $429
  14. 14. 12 … however recent healthcare IPOs have seen mixed pricing outcomes Source: Dealogic, FactSet, Companing Filings for U.S. IPOs > $50mm Pricing vs. filing range 50% 40% 20% 27% 60% 100% 67% 20% 80% 36% 33% 50% 33% 50% 40% 36% 67% 50% 40% Above Within Below 44 % 30 % 40 % 35 % 16 % 35 % 2014 2015
  15. 15. 13 Ophthalmology IPO activity 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015 (withdrawn) (withdrawn) 09/24/13 $192 / $687 10/25/13 $67 / $228 04/21/10 $72 / $342 07/06/06 €35 / €103 2011 77 74 93 9 31 65 50 39 83 157 118 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD Healthcare IPOs priced / year (2005 to present)1 Source: Dealogic, FactSet, Company filings 1 Includes global healthcare IPOs >$15mm Date priced / Size / Market value at IPO (in $ millions): 07/24/14 $75 / $267 07/30/14 $117 / $363 02/05/14 $57 / $154 06/24/15 $124 / $563 01/29/15 $185 / $540 02/17/15 $40 / $95
  16. 16. 14 Key success factors observed in recent lifesciences IPOs Valuable lead product, sufficiently de-risked with significant market opportunity and ownership retained Products which also address cost to the system vs. efficacy Strong management teams led by CEOs with prior public market success Crossover investors to provide validation as well as support on IPO and in aftermarket Near-term data / strategic catalysts to answer the “why buy now” question Extensive interaction with public investors 6 months to 1 year before IPO org meeting Critical to price appropriately for existing market to ensure strong deal and aftermarket performance (prudent / attractive cover valuation range) Potential for competitive M&A takeout        

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