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ABCs defense of capital tax charity 22aug2013
1. โ
Page 1 of 4 August 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charityโ22 August 2013
Risk Price analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the
equities in any market. These we call โlikeablesโ because investors have consistently shown they
prefer them and price them up. Investors like them and there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 of
these โlikeablesโ equities tend to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why and have
shown our case in open public display, because we can. No one else can, so they do not.
As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABCโs portfolio comprised
of just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE we call โlikeablesโ we partition. They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital.
Those ABCs made the case even as these two markets diverged. There were 16 equities in the TSX
sample for an aggregate $33,580 invested and 13 in the NYSE sample portfolio for an aggregate
$36,370 invested at outset. Through the year 5 were dropped due to negative change in their Risk
Price metrics, as it turns out in both, finishing the year with the TSX sample up 122.64% and the
NYSE sample up 138.97%. These were substantively different markets.
The TSX had declined early in the year and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE had
started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35% gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was made
in both portfolios over their markets. The hedge fund industry recorded only 6.16% on the NYSE
prior to their taking fees.
Those two ABCs sample portfolios have continued through this year, gaining further to end of July
on the TSX 11.95% (as the index gained 0.43%) to total 135.15% carrying its cash-outs of $9,533
(after those 5 having contributed modest gains of 14.74% before hand). Only recent volatility hit
the StopLoss of 3 in the TSX leaving now $19,472 cashed-out and $33,146 still invested.
The sample NYSE portfolio has gained 18.73% (as its indices gained 13.84%) to total 142.41%.
carrying its 5 cashouts of $44,340 (after those 5 having contributed modest gains of 7.97% before
hand). There was 1 recent StopLoss in the NYSE sample with now $48,940 cashed-out and $46,665
still invested. Idle cash value is eroded by inflation. Carrying idle cashout diminishes gains earned.
We insist cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it
loses value. That is simple fact. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash.
We like Capital Safety and Liquidity because we have consistently shown and proven that works.
The TaxCharity portfolios we posted this past January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small
investor to reinvest their cash under the constraining limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. You
will have done well. Using the โlikeablesโ Newbies of 01January 2013 idled ABCs cashouts
reinvested would have gained further. Per below the TSX would have improved by 12.52% to
29.45% gained on 19.0 months with still $205.00 cash in hand. On the NYSE reinvestment would
have achieved further 26.17% gain to 65.70% on 19 months with still $40.00 cash in hand.
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
2. โ
Page 2 of 4 August 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charityโ22 August 2013
ABCs for TSX Firms Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
ARC Resources 25.97 ARX.TO $25 $25
Brookfield Asset Management 37.01 BAM-A.TO $30 $36
Cogeco Cable 48.64 CCA.TO $39 $45
CCL Industries 70.00 CCL-A.TO $32 $63
Canfor Corp 20.97 CFP.TO $10 $19
Dollarama Inc 75.44 DOL.TO $45 $70
Emera Inc 31.41 EMA.TO $32 $31
Enbridge Inc 43.35 ENB.TO $41 $43
Buy-ins 01Jan13
CGI Group 35.72 GIB.A $23 $29
Gildan Activewear Inc. 45.89 GIL $35 $43
Linamar Corporation 34.25 LNR $19 $29
MTY Food Group Inc 30.5 MTY $21 $28
Sun Life Financial Inc. 31.73 SLF $26 $30
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. 32.90 CFW $30 $31
Portfolio Value 15August 2013 (including dividends) 58563.00 / 45239.00 Gain 19
months
29.45%
Current Cash 205.00
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
CML HealthCare Inc. 10.64 CLC $9 $9
Celestica Inc. 11.05 CLS $10 $10
Engage in โlikeablesโ save your own bacon.
The essential feature of โlikeablesโ is that 2 of 3 tend to gain. What is essential in your portfolios is
that you buy a full complement of at least eight or preferably more equities at any time (preferably
in equal blocks of 100 shares for 'collaring options' as exit strategy to maximize gains, most often
continuing to hold through volatility, earning more gains). StopLoss weeds the laggards as needed.
Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as most encourage or seek. Those
motley brayers are legend with survivor bias, even when 2 of their 3 crash they will talk only with
whimsy of the one. Their mothersโ โSpeak when you have something positive to sayโ is ignored.
Let others chase the gamblersโ risk/reward model. Good reason knows that rarely works. But you
can be charitable and buy a lottery ticket that donates support to community sports and arts, like
buying a raffle ticket at the Strawberry Social.
3. โ
Page 3 of 4 August 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charityโ22 August 2013
ABCs for NYSE Firms Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
Alaska Air Group 120.5 ALK*48 $32 $47
American Express Co 73.86 AXP*48 $67 $69
Brookfield Asset Management 35.14 BAM*26 $27 $35
Colgate-Palmolive 116.9 CL*80 $46 $58
CSX Corp 25.18 CSX*20 $21 $24
Walt Disney Co 61.64 DIS*37 $52 $60
GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13) 46 GMT*33 $35 $46
General Electric Company 23.78 GE*17 $23 $23
Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12) 58.50 ALEX
Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) 96.00 CAT
ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) 71.63 COP
Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) 108.27 CMI
Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) 109.00 CVX
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gamestop Corp CL A 51.91 GME:US $26 $41
Hasbro Inc 45.26 HAS $38 $43
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS 54.1 HBC:US $47 $53
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 17.25 HST:US $14 $17
Huntington Bancshares Inc 8.62 HBAN:US $6 $8
Intercontinental Exchange Inc 185.51 ICE:US $131 $169
Interpublic Group of Cos 16 IPG:US $9 $14
KLA-Tencor Corporation 56.43 KLAC:US $45 $56
MBIA Inc 12.26 MBI:US $8 $11
Principal Financial Group Inc 42.45 PFG:US $27 $40
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 31.4 TSN:US $18 $25
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
OfficeMax Incorporated 10.81 OMX:US $10 $9
Pandora Media Incorporated
Donnelley RR & Sons Company 17.49 RRD:US $15 $16
UBS AG 20.46 UBS:US $18 $17
Portfolio Value 22August 2013 (including dividends) 111687.00 / 64702.00 Gain 18.5
months
65.70%
Current Cash (from 31Jul buy) 13.00
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Ciena Corp 21.22 CIEN:US $19 $20
First Horizon National Corp 11.93 FHN:US $9 $11
Genworth Financial Inc 12.38 GNW:US $12 $11
Engage in โlikeablesโ save your own bacon.
4. โ
Page 4 of 4 August 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charityโ22 August 2013
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in, 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss, not adding
value. A tautology is just repetition until it appears to be logical. Lies told often enough are
expedient and can even become politically correct.
In our Modal Geometry "theory of the firm" we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, โwhat it ownsโ (in order to stay in business โwhat is
owed to itโ with โwhat it owesโ and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real
world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and
some powerful mathematics, not just conventional assumptions with little or no science.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. โlikeablesโ are
equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated
a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates
2 of 3 โlikeablesโ gaining for the long term, as we continue to show.
Proof is positive, as our TaxCharity shows. We do that for the small investor, because we can. No
one else can.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270