Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability"

Asian Institute of Technology in coordination Keio University, Miyagi
University of Education, Andalas University, and Universities Gadjah
Mada under ProSPER.Net consortium conducted a certificate course on
"Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience,
and Sustainability" for members of Higher Education Institute on
Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development – HEI Network. The
main objective of the training was to enhance the capacity and
understanding of the young and early career researcher about the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and Sendai Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR).

Annexes
Course Schedule
16 - 26 August 2021
Each Lecture Session will be 40 min talk followed by 15 min discussion (40+15 = 55 min)
Date
Time
(Indo-China time)
Session Topics
Day 1
Monday 16
Aug, 2021
13:00– 14:00 PM Lecture 0
Topic Name: Opening Session / Introduction to the
course outline and plan
Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal
Facilitator : Ganesh Dhungana
14:00 – 15:00 PM Lecture 1
Topic Name: Vulnerability, Resilience and Governance
in Asia-Pacific
Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal, Asian Institute of
Technology
Day 2
Wednesday
18 Aug,
2021
11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 2
Topic Name: Pandemic Risk Reduction & Management
Instructor: Dr. Defriman Djafri, Andalas University
12:00 – 13:00 PM Lecture 3
Topic Name: Civil engineering and Disaster Risk
Reduction
Instructor: Prof. Abdul Hakam, Andalas University
Day 3
Friday 20
Aug, 2021
11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 4
Topic Name: Science, Technology and Disaster Risk
Reduction
Instructor: Prof. Rajib Shaw, Keio University
12:00 – 13:00 PM Lecture 5
Topic Name: Urban rural linkages and resilience
building
Instructor: Vibhas Sukhwani, Keio University
Day 4
11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 6
Topic Name: Large-scale disaster and the role of school
Instructor: Prof. Tomonori Ichinose
12:00– 13:00 PM Lecture 7

Tuesday
24 Aug,
2021
Topic Name: Training Educators in Disaster Risk
Reduction
Instructor: Dr. Takashi Oda
Day 5
Wednesday
25 Aug,
2021
11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 8
Topic Name: Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-
climatic Extremes: Evidences from Modeling Studies
Instructor: Prof. Sangam Shrestha, Asian Institute of
Technology
12:00– 13:00 PM Lecture 9
Topic Name: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for
Sustainability - Geospatial Approach
Instructor: Dr. Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Asian Institute
of Technology
Day 6
Thursday
26 Aug,
2021
11:00– 12:00 PM Lecture 10
Topic Name: Vulnerability and Resilience Outlook for
Indonesia
Instructor: Dr. Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, Universitas
Gadjah Mada
12:00– 13:00 PM Lecture 11
Topic Name: Disaster Risk Management and
Development
Instructor: Dr. Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei, Universitas
Gadjah Mada (TBC)
13:00– 14:00 PM Lecture 12
Topic Name: End of the training Discussion Forum and
Feedback
Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal
Facilitator : Ganesh Dhungana

Participant Details
Name of Student County of
residence
Name of
University/Institution
Affiliation
Lucky Zamzamu,
PhD
Indonesia Universitas Andalas Research Scholar/
Academic Staff
Fajri Muharja Indonesia Universititas Andalas Research Scholar/
Academic Staff
Darshini S Shekhar India Presidency university Research Scholar/
Academic Staff
Vonny Indah
Mutiara
Indonesia Andalas University Research Scholar/
Academic Staff
Rika Hariance Indonesia Andalas University Doctoral Student
Elvi Oktarina Indonesia Universitas Andalas Faculty
Nanami Yamazawa Japan Keio University Post Graduate
Student
Shwetha K G India Nitte Meenakshi Institute
of Technology
Faculty
Mahesh Kumar C L India Nitte Meenakshi Institute
of Technology
Doctoral Student
Mohammad Naufal
Fathoni
Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Post Graduate
Student
Alia Fajarwati Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Doctoral Student
Rofiatun Nur
Lathifah
Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Post Graduate
Student
Iredo Bettie Puspita Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Doctoral Student
Adinda Deviana,
S.Geo
Indonesia Gadjah Mada University Post Graduate
Student
A.K.A. Agustinus Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Doctoral Student
Hilary Reinhart Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Faculty
Yuli Widiyatmoko Indonesia Universitas Gadjah Mada Post Graduate
Student
Adil Nadeem
Hussain
India Presidency University Research Scholar/
Academic Staff
Thess Khaz S. Raza Philippines University of the
Philippines
Post Graduate
Student
Anil Kumar India Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student
Kullanan
Sukwanchai
Thailand Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student

Furqan Ali Shaikh Thailand Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student
Erick Oinde Philippines Philippine School of
Business Administration
Post Graduate
Student
Bui Phan Quoc
Nghia
Technology
Doctoral Student
Arunswasdi
Bhuridadtpong
Technology
Doctoral Student
Trang nguyen Thailand Asian Institute of
Technology
Working
professional
Afshana Parven Thailand Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student
Md. Shahidul
Hasan
Bangladesh Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student
Neelay Srivastava India Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student
Mazhar Ali Thailand Asian Institute of
Technology
Doctoral Student
Hamza Islam Pakistan University of Sindh
Jamshoro
Working
professional
Sujan Kumal Nepal Action Nepal Working
professional
Md. Ashik-Ur-
Rahman
Bangladesh Khulna University Faculty

Program Brochure
Training on Disaster Risk Reduction necessitates
interdisciplinary research. Enhancing the capacity of
the young and early career researcher is the key to
mainstream DRR practices in development planning.
The “Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary
Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience
and Sustainability” is co-designed by the Asian
Institute of Technology, Keio University, Miyagi
University of Education, Andalas University, and
Universities Gadjah Mada under ProSPER.Net
consortium.
The certificate course is offered to the members of
Higher Education Institute on Disaster Resilience and
Sustainable Development. (HEI - DRSD) to enhance
their understanding about the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDG) and Sendai Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The course will help
to develop basic understanding about Disaster Risk
Reduction (DRR) and sustainable development and
contribute to producing a qualified human resource.
Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk
Management, Resilience and Sustainability
A U G U S T 2 0 2 1
Introduction
Duration: 12 Hours
(Spread across two weeks)
Mode: Virtual
Date : 16 - 26, August, 2021
CERTIFICATE
COURSE

Have a fundamental
understanding of Disaster Risk
Reduction.
Understand the implementation
context of the various
perspective of SFDRR.
Understand targets and priorities
of Sendai Framework and its
interrelation with SDGs.
Understand various case studies
on SDGs and SFDRR in practice
and policy.
16 Aug, 2021
Opening Session
13:00– 14:00 PM
Chair : Dr. Indrajit Pal
Facilitator: Ganesh Dhungana
Lecture 1
14:00 – 15:00 PM
Vulnerability, Resilience and Governance in Asia-Pacific
Instructor: Dr. Indrajit Pal, Asian Institute of Technology
18 Aug, 2021
Lecture 2
11:00– 12:00 PM
Pandemic Risk Reduction & Management
Instructor: Dr. Defriman Djafri, Andalas University
Lecture 3
12:00 – 13:00 PM
Civil engineering and disaster risk reduction
Instructor: Prof. Abdul Hakam, Andalas University
20 Aug, 2021
Lecture 4
11:00– 12:00 PM
Science, Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction
Instructor: Prof. Rajib Shaw, Keio University
Lecture 5
12:00 – 13:00 PM
Urban Rural Linkages and Resilience Building
Instructor: Vibhas Sukhwani, Keio University
24 Aug, 2021
Lecture 6
11:00– 12:00 PM
Large-scale Disaster and the Role of School
Instructor:Prof. Tomonori Ichinose, Miyagi University of
Education
Lecture 7
12:00– 13:00 PM
Training Educators in Disaster Risk Reduction
Instructor: Dr. Takashi Oda, Miyagi University of Education
26 Aug, 2021
Lecture 10
11:00– 12:00 PM
Vulnerability and Resilience Outlook for Indonesia
Instructor:Dr.Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, Universitas Gadjah
Mada
Lecture 11
12:00– 13:00 PM
Disaster Risk Management and Development
Instructor: Dr. Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei, Universitas Gadjah
Mada
Discussion forum, Feedback and Closing Session
13:00– 14:00 PM
25 Aug, 2021
Lecture 8
11:00– 12:00 PM
Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-climatic Extremes:
Evidences from Modeling Studies
Instructor: Prof. Sangam Shrestha,
Asian Institute of Technology
Lecture 9
12:00– 13:00 PM
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Sustainability -
Geospatial Approach
Instructor: Dr. Anirban Mukhopadhyay,
Outcomes of the
Course
Upon successful completion of the
course, participants will be able to:
12 hours of lecture
Required minimum 5 Hours of self-studies
Assignment
Discussion Forum
Developed for ProSPER.Net project “Disaster Education for integrating SFDRR and SDG in Asia"

Lecture Notes
Dr. Indrajit Pal,
Academic Program Chair,
Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management,
Asian Institute of Technology, THAILAND
Email: indrajit-pal@ait.ac.th
“Vulnerability, Resilience and Governance in Asia-Pacific”
Aug 16, 2021 Certificate Course on
“Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster
Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability”
WORLDWIDE ISSUES RELATED TO DISASTERS

Hazards and disasters
Disasters in 2019
World Disaster Report 2020
▪ In the categories of disaster occurrence, the number of people affected and the amount of economic damage
accounting for 38.2 percent, 74.4 percent and 60.6 percent respectively.
Source: NDB 2019
ASIA RANKS THE FIRST AMONG ALL REGIONS

DRR IN ASIA PACIFIC…
Source: GAR 2019
Asia Pacific Disaster Resilience Network
Vulnerability index and exposure index of countries
in Asia and the Pacific
WHY ARE DISASTER
IMPACTS INCREASING?
1. Increased in population
2. Climate change
3. Increased vulnerability due to:
▪ Demographic changes
▪ Increased concentration of assets
▪ Environmental degradation
▪ Poverty
▪ Rapid urbanization and unplanned development

DISASTER
RISK
MANAGEMENT
Illustration of the core concepts of IPCC WGII AR5
Fifth Assessment Report
of the IPCC (AR5)
chapter on ‘Climate
Change 2014: Impacts,
Adaptation, and
Vulnerability

A Paradigm Shift from
Crisis Management
to
Risk Management
DIMENSIONS &
TRENDS
D
e
t
e
r
m
i
n
a
n
t
s
o
f
R
Hazard:
Exposure:
Vulnerability:
“changes in exposure and in some case vulnerability are the main drivers
behind observed trends in disaster losses”
Environmental
dimension
Vulnerable natural systems
Impacts on systems
Mechanisms causing impacts
Responses
Socialdimension Population groups
Education
Health and well-being
Culture
Economic
dimension
Economic system
Work and livelihoods
Q: How we can reduce the Determinants of RISK?

INTENSIVE RISK
(HIGH SEVERITY, LOW FREQUENCY)
AND
EXTENSIVE RISK
(LOW SEVERITY, HIGH FREQUENCY)
INTENSIVE RISK
▪ Risk associated with high-severity, mid to low-frequency events.
▪ Exposure of large concentrations of people and economic activities.
▪ Can lead to potential catastrophe.
▪ Disaster impacts involve high mortality and asset loss.
(UNISDR, 2009; UNISDR, 2015)

EXTENSIVE RISK
▪ Risk associated with low severity and high-frequency
events.
▪ Extensive risk is normally associated with weather-
related hazards.
▪ Disasters occur in both urban and rural settings,
▪ Primarily affecting Low and Middle-income countries.
▪ Across these countries, extensive disasters are
responsible for only 14 per cent of total disaster mortality
NATIONAL DISASTER LOSS DATA FOR 85 COUNTRIES
AND STATES
• 99.1 per cent of the local-level loss reports from these 85
countries and states are manifestations of extensive risk,
with 96.4 per cent resulting from weather-related events.
• The economic losses from extensive disasters account for
more than 45 per cent of total accumulated loss.

GLOBAL MORTALITY LOSSES ARE CONCENTRATED IN
INTENSIVE DISASTERS
Mortality losses are concentrated in a few intensive disasters, and recent
disasters give the false impressions that global mortalities are on the rise.
PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE AND LOSS FROM
EXTENSIVE AND INTENSIVE DISASTER EVENTS
(65 COUNTRIES, 2 STATES)

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS FOR SMART RESILIENCE
Use of big data sources
for disaster management,
2012–2018
Source: Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019, Manzhu Yu and others, 2018
Big data: four types of
analytics for smart resilience
Resilience is the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to
and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner.
What is resilience
?
Japanese say, Resilience like bamboo, which bends under the weight of winter snow but
stands tall again come springtime. Snow-covered bamboo represents the ability to spring
back after experiencing adversity.
Roly-poly toy

Definitions
21
Definition IPCC UNDRR
Risk
“The potential for consequences where something of
value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain,
recognizing the diversity of values.”
“The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged
assets which could occur to a system, society or a community
in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a
function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity.”
Resilience
“The capacity of social, economic and environmental
systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or
disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that
maintain their essential function, identity and structure,
while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation,
learning and transformation.”
“The ability of a system, community or society exposed to
hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform
and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and
efficient manner, including through the preservation and
restoration of its essential basic structures and functions
through risk management.”
• Resilience is at the central to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–
2030, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• Resilience is “The ability of a system, community, or society to pursue its social,
ecological, and economic development and growth objectives, while managing its
disaster risk over time in a mutually reinforcing way” (McQuistan, 2016).
• Resilience requires a systems approach to explore development and disasters across
sectors and at multiple scales
22
Resilience is at the central of development

Adapted from Bruneau, 2003 and McDaniels, 2008
Functionalit
y
Tim
e
Time to Full
Recovery
Residual
Functionalit
y
Modifications before disruptive events that
improve system performance
Repairs after disruptive
event to restore system
functionality
Lost
Functionalit
y
Aging
System
Event
RESILIENCE CONCEPT
Maintain acceptable levels of functionality during and after disruptive
events Recover full functionality within a specified period of time
Key factors influencing
resilience and
decreasing disaster risk
Source: Turnbull et al., 2013

SENDAI FRAMEWORK- 2015 to 2030
✔ Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk.
✔ Priority 2: Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage
disaster risk.
✔ Priority 3: Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience.
✔ Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response
and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and
reconstruction.
EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL POLICY AGENDA FOR DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 at the third United Nations World
Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR).
Source: GAR 2019

LOCAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES AND PLANS IN
URBAN AREAS
Number of urban areas with populations over 750,000 affected by disasters (1985–2015)
Source: GAR 2019,
Gencer and UNDDR 2017
State of local DRR plans as reported by the 169 cities of the MCR Campaign
SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM SHOWING A HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR INTEGRATING DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION (DRR) WITH CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION (CCA) OVER THE SOUTH ASIAN REGION
Source: Rajesh K. Mall et.al

Complex Development Challenge: how to avoid the collapse of South and SE Asian
deltas as functioning, highly productive social-ecological systems in the face of human
development and projected adverse consequences of climate change
UKRI GCRF
“Living Deltas” HUB
project
4 delta social-ecological systems (SESs)

Living Deltas Hub: Project Deltas
Delta Shapefiles obtained from Tessler et al. (Science, 2015)
Types of multi-hazard risk assessment and its methodologies
Sahani et al. (2019)
32

Indicator-based approach for resilience assessment
Lwin and Pal, et al. (2020)
CYCLONE AMPHAN (MAY 2020)

▪ First case detected in March 2020
▪ Cases increase – Categorized as Red Zone
▪ Highest number of Containment zones in the city
▪ Negative effect on people and economy, social stigma
▪ Positive effect on the environment- improvement of air quality
3861
15655
18513 16255
24876
193 363 480 420 496
0
10000
20000
30000
June July August September October
COVID-19 Status in Kolkata
Cases Deaths
• A cyclone hit West Bengal on May with a windspeed-130
km/hr
• Affected India( Kolkata and 6 other districts and Bangladesh
• Impact on different sectors-communication, electricity, WASH
and many other
• Fear of COVID-19 complicated the disaster management
process
• COVID-19 cases upsurge in the city post-cyclone.
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak
Fig 2. COVID-19 Status in Kolkata (Source: Yengkhom, S, 2020)
Destruction caused by wind during cyclone Amphan (Source:
Goptu, S 2020)
Super Cyclone Amphan (May 2020)
Cyclone Amphan
Track of Cyclone Amphan (Source: IMD)
Amphan was considered the first of its kind after
Odisha Super cyclone 1999 in severity and scale.
13 May 2020
Originated from a low-
pressure area persisting
around 300 km east of
Colombo, Sri Lanka
18 May 2020
Amphan reached its peak
intensity with sustained
wind speeds of 240 km/h
20 May 2020
Amphan made landfall
South of Kolkata, India, and
Hathiya islands in
Bangladesh (IMD, 2020).

Amphan Impact
•West Bengal:
• 13 million people affected with 98 dead and
around 0.7 million displaced, most deaths
due to electrocution and collapse of
buildings
• Damage of worth USD 13.5 billion.
• 2.1 million animals, damaged 8007 fishing
boats, and caused damage to 17,000 sq. km
of agricultural land
• Effect on Critical infrastructures- shelter
(one million houses damaged) electricity
(electric poles toppled down),
communication (mobile network towers
toppled down), water most effected along
with livelihoods and industries.
•Kolkata:
• 15 million people affected, and 19 deaths.
Pumping stations broke down affecting the
water drainage.

→ High death rate of children <5 age
→ Inadequacy of water and sanitation facilities
→ Poor health care infrastructure
→ Overwhelmed health services
→ Children - Stunting 52% and Chronic malnutrition 44.6%
→ Injury and disability - impacts of natural hazards
→ Mental disorder - affected by poverty
→ Post-traumatic - animal attack-related disorders
→ common chronic ailments
→ Lack of availability - maternal health care
PRE-EXISTING VULNERABILITY ON HUMAN HEALTH
Policy response to mitigate the impact of Cyclone Amphan during pandemic

- Evacuation plans
- Construction of shelters
- Early warning systems
- Evacuation drills
- Health systems capacity
- Emergency response
- Continuing basic services
- Aid and relied distribution
- Medical assistance, health systems
access and capacity
- Short-term (up to 3 years) repair,
reconstruction of homes, infrastructure,
services
- Temporary housing
- Construction of embankments
- Regulation on property development in
hazards prone areas
- Regulation on farming development
Managing dual risk of hydro-met and biological hazards
Preparedness
& Early
Warning
Response
Rehabilitation/
Reconstruction
Mitigation &
Prevention
Disaster Risk
Management
Hazard
strikes
Preparedness and response
severely hampered/slowed down
due to Covid-19 restrictions
41
▪ Need for going beyond managing single hazard to multi-hazard risk management
▪ Integrated management of dual risk from hydro-met as well as biological hazards
▪ Preparedness and response strategies should consider the social distancing
(For example during the pandemic, how evacuation process will be affected or how
capacity of the shelter will decrease due to social distancing need to be considered)
▪ Coordination of multiple actors/stakeholders/improved governance
Building back better for managing multi-hazards including pandemic
42

Sustainable development pathways and resilience
DRR
PUBLICATIONS
(Selected Books only)

Pandemic Risk Reduction and Management
Defriman Djafri1,2,3,4
1Dept of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Andalas
2Chairman of Indonesian Epidemiological Association, West Sumatra Chapter
3Chairman of Indonesian Public Health Professional Union, Sumatra Region
4Member of International Epidemiological Association
defrimandjafri@ph.unand.ac.id, defriman.djafri@mail.harvard.edu
Universitas Andalas
©defrimandjafri
Outline
• Evolution of the disaster risk concept
• Pandemic Risk Reduction (PRR) and Management
• The implication of PRR in interdisciplinary higher education
• Conclusion

©defrimandjafri
Evolution of the disaster risk concept
Risk =
Hazard
•1960s - 1970s
Risk =
Hazard +
Vulnerability
•1970s - 1990s
Risk =
Hazard x
Vulnerability
•1990s - 2000s
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Capacity
•>2000s
What Next..?
Source : Wamsler, C. (2009). Urban risk reduction and adaptation: how to promote resilient communitites and adapt to increasing disasters
and changing climate conditions. Saarbrucken: VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
©defrimandjafri
“Your successors will have to deal with these more difficult
issues, but they will benefit from the steps you take now. If you
help correct the problems of the present, generations to come
will welcome the future”
Source: https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-0-8213-8050-5

©defrimandjafri
Term and Definition
• AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people
within a community, population, or region.
• A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or
continents.
• ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country.
• AN OUTBREAK is a greater-than-anticipated increase in the number
of endemic cases. It can also be a single case in a new area. If it’s not
quickly controlled, an outbreak can become an epidemic
©defrimandjafri
The continuum of pandemic phases
Source: Pandemic Influenza Risk Management Guidance, WHO, 2017

©defrimandjafri
The basics types of epidemic curve
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
common continuous source
point source
common intermittent source propagated source (person-to-person)
©defrimandjafri
Pandemic influenza during the last 100 years and its
characteristics
Source: Influenza Vaccines: Unmet Needs and Recent Developments, Infect Chemother 2013;45(4):375-386

©defrimandjafri
Global Situation of the Covid-19 Pandemic
©defrimandjafri

©defrimandjafri
Pandemic Risk Reduction & Management
• Comprehensive risk management
• All-hazards approach
• Multisectoral approach
• Multidisciplinary approach
• Community resilience
• Sustainable development
• Ethical basis
Source: Pandemic Influenza Risk Management Guidance, WHO, 2017 & Pandemic Risk Management in Operations and Finance: Modeling the Impact of COVID-19, Springer, 2020
©defrimandjafri
Backcasting
Infected
Swab
samples
were taken
Samples
received at
the Lab
Sample
checked &
analyzed
Results
reported
2-4
days
1-3
days
1-2
days
1-2
days
Estimated onset distance - reporting estimated at 7-10 days, mean 8 days for West Sumatra Province

©defrimandjafri
Backcasting Trend of Confirmation Cases, Deaths, Testing Covid-19
in West Sumatra Province
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
10-Mar-2020
16-Mar-2020
22-Mar-2020
28-Mar-2020
3-Apr-2020
9-Apr-2020
15-Apr-2020
21-Apr-2020
27-Apr-2020
3-May-2020
9-May-2020
15-May-2020
21-May-2020
27-May-2020
2-Jun-2020
8-Jun-2020
14-Jun-2020
20-Jun-2020
26-Jun-2020
2-Jul-2020
8-Jul-2020
14-Jul
-2020
20-Jul
-2020
26-Jul
-2020
1-Aug-2020
7-Aug-2020
13-Aug-2020
19-Aug-2020
25-Aug-2020
31-Aug-2020
6-Sep-2020
12-Sep-2020
18-Sep-2020
24-Sep-2020
30-Sep-2020
6-Oct-2020
12-Oct-2020
18-Oct-2020
24-Oct-2020
30-Oct-2020
5-Nov-2020
11-Nov-2020
17-Nov-2020
23-Nov-2020
29-Nov-2020
5-Dec-2020
11-Dec-2020
17-Dec-2020
23-Dec-2020
29-Dec-2020
4-Jan-2021
10-Jan-2021
16-Jan-2021
22-Jan-2021
28-Jan-2021
3-Feb-2021
9-Feb-2021
15-Feb-2021
21-Feb-2021
27-Feb-2021
5-Mar-2021
11-Mar-2021
17-Mar-2021
23-Mar-2021
29-Mar-2021
4-Apr-2021
10-Apr-2021
16-Apr-2021
22-Apr-2021
28-Apr-2021
4-May-2021
10-May-2021
16-May-2021
22-May-2021
28-May-2021
3-Jun-2021
9-Jun-2021
15-Jun-2021
21-Jun-2021
27-Jun-2021
3-Jul-2021
9-Jul-2021
15-Jul
-2021
21-Jul
-2021
27-Jul
-2021
2-Aug-2021
8-Aug-2021
Number
of
persons
tested
per
1000
(per
week)
Number
of
Confirmed
Cases
&
Death-Cumulative
Jumlah Orang di Testing Konfirmasi Positif ( Mundur 8 Hari) Jumlah Kematian Kumulatif
PSBB
PPKM
PPKM
Mikro
PPKM
Darurat
PPKM
Level
1-4
©defrimandjafri
Number of Death-Cumulative Covid-19
in West Sumatra
(24 March 2020- 7 June 2021)
Data Sources: Provincial Health Office, West Sumatra , 2021

©defrimandjafri
Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) Covid-19
in West Sumatra Province
(24 March 2020- 7 June 2021)
Data Sources: Provincial Health Office, West Sumatra , 2021
©defrimandjafri
Situational assessment using transmission level and response
capacity
Source: Considerations for implementing and adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19, WHO 2021

©defrimandjafri
Managing COVID-19 Pandemic disruptions, both upstream and
downstream
Institution/Social Capital/Social Network Personal
Deteksi ( detect , test and treat ) Jaga Jarak Fisik & Sosial (Social/Physical Distancing)
Pelacakan kontak ( contact tracing ) Alat Pelindung Diri ( PPE)
Isolasi (isolate) Hygiene Perorangan (Personal Hygiene)
Promosi & Literasi Kesehatan ( health promotion &
literacy)
Pembatasan Perjalanan ( Travel Restriction )
Kesiapan Sistem Kesehatan (SDM, Infrastruktur, dll.)
(Health System Resilience )
Tingkatkan kesadaran & pengetahuan ( Awareness)
©defrimandjafri
Health in the river of live
Sumber: From health education to healthy learning: Implementing salutogenesis
in educational science, Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 2011; 39(Suppl 6): 85–92
Social/Physical
Distancing
Personal Hygiene, PPE
Healthy lifestyle movement

©defrimandjafri
The Target of Health Promotion, Education & Literacy
High Awareness
Low Awareness
High
Knowledge
Low
Knowledge
§ Stay at home
§ Stay clean
§ Stay healthy
§ Stay cool
§ Believe Hoax Information
§ Exclude
§ Rejection
§ Fanatic
§ Don't understand flattening the
curve
§ Wear a mask only for the sick.
§ Believe in herd immunity
§ Economic compulsion
§ Unlimited credit
§ Being able to eat today
Stigma :
– Belief
– Lack of knowledge
©defrimandjafri
Playing "Hide And Seek" with Covid-19

©defrimandjafri
Equilibrium state
Environment
Agent
Biological, chemical, physical
Mechanical, Nutrient
Age, race, sex, habit,
genetic, personality,
defense mechanism
Biological, chemical, physical
Mechanical, nutrient, soci0-antrophology, psychologic & economic
Host(person)
©defrimandjafri
Interdisciplinary & Multidisciplinary approach
Agent Host
Environment
Engineering
Law &
Administration
Intervention
Genetically
modified
virus
Genetic ,
Immunity,
Nutrition &
Behavior,
Vaccine
Medicine & Public Health Science
Natural & Environmental Sciences
Engineering Sciences
Law, Economic, Social-anthrophology Sciences
New Habit
and
Adaptation
Behavioral Sciences

©defrimandjafri
Video Conference with Heads of Health Offices throughout West
Sumatra Province
©defrimandjafri

©defrimandjafri
Draft of PSBB Document
©defrimandjafri
We should do..
• Understand the process.
• Find a way to be involve in the process.
• Communicate information more effectively.
• Utilize analytic tools.
• Educate a range of “players” (staffers, advocates, task forces, etc..).
• To provide the innovation training and education program.
27

Civil Engineering and
Disaster Risk Reduction
Abdul Hakam
Andalas University
Padang, Indonesia 2021
Who is Civil Engineer
the one is the man behind the scene
the one is taking the responsibility for the existence of constructions
Beautiful building: Architect will be asked
In ‘normal‘ (safe) situation: Public in general wanna know the one who design
the building or constructions.
but
In Case of disaster: Public will judge ask who the builder is ...

Role of Civil Engineer
Keep the beautiful exist,
Make it safe,
No collapse,
no damage,
no ‘worries’ at any circumstance
Fail in Civil Engineer’s Role
Generally the damage construction due to disaster is caused by:
• improper planning,
• failure of structural design,
• poor infrastructural facilities,
• ignorance of building norms (code),
• low quality materials
• lack of site investigations.

Different Civil Engineers
Some speciality in civil engineering
structural engineer,
geotechnical engineer,
marine engineer,
construction management,
city planner,
All of then have to play the active role in disaster mitigation.
Work together to make a ‘good teamwork’
Beautiful Constructions:

A disaster is defined as
a ‘sudden’ event, that causes damage or loss of things
‘any unfortunate event’ which the consequences are serious destruction
Things Lost or Destroyed:
• life
• property or material
• psychology
• environment
• possibility of losing (things: .... )
• a cindition involving exposure to danger
• the chance that any event will actually cause disaster
Risky things: expose to danger, harm, or loss

R = H V C-1
R = Risk
H = Hazard
C = Capacity
V = Vulnerability
Hazards
Hazards are the potential for a disaster, may include
• earthquakes,
• tsunamis,
• floods,
• winds,
• Landslide,
• ...

Event
Event is the change situasi atau condition caused by hazard(s)
The Change can be:
just a moment
permanent
temporary
Civil Engineers create potential disaster
• If construction is build in hazardous area, then it will create disaster
risk
• The risk must be assessed

Examples
Deadly Florida Condo Collpase
(2021), took 90s person
Earthquake and Tsunami
taiwannews.com.tw eastbaytimes.com
Palu, Indonesia (2018)

Liquefaction
hindustantimes.com bangkokpost.com
Palu, Indonesia (2018)
itn-slate.eu
the Risk
R = H x V / C
Reduce the Risk by:
Reducing the H (hazard)
Reducing the V (vulnerability)
Increasing the C (capacity)

Reducing Hazard
Collect any hazard information (documents: map, journal etc.)
Conduct investigation (testing, boring, measurment)
Identify the Potential hazard
Calculate the magnitude of the hazard (hazard assessment)
Make the hazard reduction plan or avoid the hazard
Increasing the Capasity
Capacity is the ability to hold something (the hazard)
Capacity usually refer to the ability of person to face the potential hazard
Then, the Increasing the capacity can be done by:
Teach the knowledge more effectively.
Offer short special training for specific case.
Develop new construction technologies and teach them
Provide a consistent onboarding process for new civil engineers
etc.

reducing the vulnerability
Vulnerability in Civil Engineering usually refer to the product
(construction), then it can be done by:
• increase the factor of safety (in calculation)
• consider multiple loads (in analysis)
• applied sophisticated method
• increase the strength (dimentions or change materials)
• applied better technologies
• use better construction materials
Thanks
•ขอบคุณ
•Terimakasih

Science
Technology and
Innovation in
Rajib Shaw
Professor, Keio University, Japan
Co-Chair, United Nations Asia-Pacific Science Technology Advisory Group (AP-STAAG)
Coordinating Lead Author (CLA), Asia Chapter, IPCC 6th Assessment Report
Co-Founder, Resilience Innovation Knowledge Academy (RIKA)
Distinguished Professor, Sichuan University
www.rajibshaw.org AND www.rikaindia.com
1990-2020
Context: Pre-Sendai: Science Technology
• 1984: World Conference on Earthquake Engineering: "I believe there is great need, and
much support can be found, to establish an International Decade of Hazard
Reduction. This special initiative would see all nations joining forces to reduce the
consequences of natural hazards," Frank Press, President of US National Science
Academy, SF, 8th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
• 1990-1999: IDNDR: Science Technology Committee [STC]
• 2000-onward: ISDR: Science Technology Advisory Group [STAG] at global level
• Regional Level in Asia
• Stakeholder Group of Science Technology Academia
• 2005: ASTAAG: Asia Science Technology Academia Advisory Group

Implementation Oriented Technology (IOT): Mangrove as coastal buffer
Research
(By ICHARM,
Japan
By DINAR CATUR
ISTIYANTO)
Training
(Coastal Dynamic
Research Center
Indonesia)
Action
(Cities and
municipalities in
West Sumatra
Province: Padang)
Engineering tool for planning coastal
protection by using mangrove-forest
Source: DRH-10
Process Technology: Neighborhood Watching
Research
(Kyoto University,
Japan)
Training
(City officials and
School teachers in
Saijo city, Japan)
Action
(in all schools
in Saijo for
last 11 years)
Students
PTA
Local
Govt
Local
residents
Teachers

Transferable Indigenous Knowledge: River erosion Control
Research
(Kyoto University,
Japan)
Training
(Central and local
govt. official)
Action
(Customization
of materials in
local context)
Source: DRH
Conext: Post Sendai
• Sepcific focus on new hazards
• Natech (Natural hazard induced technological disaster)
• Biological hazards
• Specific focus on science and technology
• Health related issues
• ST policy
• Focus on innovation
• Specific focus on non-traditional stakehodlders
• Science technology academic group
• Private sectors

Policy gaps
Policy gaps
8
1st Asia Science Technology
Conference
On Disaster Risk Reduction
(ASTCDRR)

Breaking
this
barrier is
crucial
Contents
Digital divide and
inclusiveness

Digital divide and need for inclusiveness
• Countries and socio-economic clusters
• Infrastructure based divide
• Policy based divide
• Urban rural divide
• Age based divide
• Gender based divide
• Physical and mental challenge based divide
Kochi prefecture
Nishida et al. (2014)
Digital media penetration
Aged population
Seismic and tsunami risk
Flood risk
GAPS: People and Policy Dimensions
• Gaps in S/T and its use in decision making as well as service to people
• Gaps in research on human losses versus infrastructure losses
• Gaps in applying new technologies serving the most needy people

Science Technology Milestone: Global and Regional
March 2015: SFDRR
May 2017: Global Platform
On DRR, Cancun, Mexico
November 2017: Global
Sc-Tech Conference
Tokyo
August 2016: Asia Sc.-Tech
Conference on Disaster
Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR)
Bangkok, Thailand
April 2018: ASTCDRR
Beijing, China
July 2018: AMCDRR
Mongolia
May 2015: ASTAAG November 2016: Asia
Ministerial Meeting on
DRR (AMCDRR)
January 2016: Global Sc-Tech
Conference and Global Road Map
May 2019 Global Platform
On DRR, Geneva
March 2020: ASTCDRR
KL, Malaysia
June 2020: APMCDRR
Brisbane, Australia
15th of October
2020
Around end of 2022
?

Co-designing Disaster Risk
Reduction Solutions:
Towards participatory action and communication in
science, technology and academia
2017
UNISDR Asia Science Technology and Academia
Advisory Group (ASTAAG)
Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR)
Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and
CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian
Response (CCOUC)
Co-designing Disaster Risk
Reduction Solutions:
Towards participatory action and communication in
science, technology and academia
2017
UNISDR Asia Science Technology and Academia
Advisory Group (ASTAAG)
Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR)
Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and
CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian
Response (CCOUC)
1st
Asia Science Technology Conference
On Disaster Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR) 2016
Bangkok, Thailand
Global Platform in Cancun 2017
11 countries
28 examples of application of science
14 countries
40 examples of co-designing solutions
Science & Technology into
Action
Disaster Risk Reduction Perspectives
from Asia
2018
2nd
Asia Science Technology Conference
On Disaster Risk Reduction (ASTCDRR) 2018
Beijing, China
12 countries
25 examples of S-T actions
14 countries
24 examples of co-designing solutions
3rd
APSTCDRR,
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
https://www.undrr.org/publication/status-science-and-technology-disaster-risk-reduction-asia-pacific-2020
Priority for action 1
Understanding disaster risk
Priority for action 2
Strengthening Disaster Risk
Governance to Manage Disaster Risk
Priority for action 3 Investing in
Disaster Risk Reduction for Resilience
Priority for action 4 Enhancing Disaster
Preparedness for Effective
Response, and to “Build Back
Better” in Recovery, Rehabilitation and
Reconstruction

National Institutional Arrangement (Malaysia)
The Director General of NADMA Malaysia & the Science Advisor to the Prime Minister are co-
chairs of the Scientific Expert Panel on DRR, which provides scientific support on DRR and
reports to the National Science Council, chaired by the Hon. Prime Minister of Malaysia
National Conference on Science,
Technology and Innovation on
DRR, 2017
Convened by NADMA, ASM &
SEADPRI-UKM
National Plan on Science, Technology and
Innovation for DRR
Source: Joy Pereira
Engineering Resilience through
Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships:
The Philippine National Resilience Council
Antonia Yulo Loyzaga 1, Emma Porio2, Jessica Dator-Bercilla1, Noralene Uy2
1-Manila Observatory,2-Ateneo de Manila University
Antonia Yulo Loyzaga, Emma Porio, Jessica Bercilla, Noarlene Uy
Manila Observatory and Ateneo de Manila University
aloyzaga@observatory.ph, eporio@ateneo.edu
www.observatory.ph www.ateneo.edu
Co-Chair
Private Sector
NATIONAL RESILIENCE COUNCIL
Co-Chair
Government
President
Secretariat Executive Director
Vice-Chair
Private Sector
Vice-Chair
Government
Vice-Chair
Scientific
Community/
Academe
Vice-Chair
CSOs/NGOs
NATIONAL RESILINECE COUNCIL
LEADERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR RESILIENT PH2022
RESILIENCE MODEL
I M M E D I AT E O U T C O M E S
PILLARS OF LGU SYSTEM
HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT
SUSTAINABLE LOCAL
ECONOMY
INFRASTRUCTURE ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABLITIY
Resilient
systems of
health,
education and
social
protection
Resilient livelihoods,
enterprises and
businesses
Resilient housing,
building and lifelines
Healthy ecosystems
Socio-ecological
protection systems
Pollution
management and
resource use
efficiency
LEADERSHIP AND
GOVERNENANCE
IN RESILIENCY
• Leadership
Commitment and
Competencies
• Empowered
Stakeholders
• Integrates Dev’t
Planning,
implementation
and Evaluation
IMPACT
Resilient LGUs
Provinces
Cities
Municipalities
Reduced deaths
Reduced damage to
properties, infra
and agri
Development
continuity
The Philippines is situated in the Pacific Ring of
Fire and experiences an average of 20 tropical
cyclones a year. Despite advances in early
warning systems, a fast growing economy and
recent legislation stipulating mandates for disaster
risk reduction, climate change adaptation and
sustainable development, it has remained within
the top three countries most at risk to five major
hazards from 2011-2016 (UNU-EHS) and was
ranked fourth among the countries with the
highest human cost to weather-related
disasters between 1995-2015 (CRED-UNISDR).
Shih noted in 2016 that the Philippines may be
among the most at risk in terms of GDP loss,
mortality and peoples affected by climate change
and other natural hazards between 2020-2030.
.
society established the National Resilience
Council (NRC) as a science and technology-
based public-private partnership. NRC will
implement a Resiliency Leadership Program
that uses demand-driven partnerships models,
policy development support and localized
assessment tools to respond to resilience
challenges. The NRC will serve as a platform for
the advancement of the objectives of UNISDR
STAG/ASTAAG and ARISE in partnership with the
Department of Interior and Local Government
(DILG) and the National Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management Council (NDRRMC). Initial
commitments to the Resiliency Program include
four cities and one major province.
Impacts of Ketsana and Haiyan, and the potential for
a catastrophic earthquake compel re-examination of
the role of science and technology in understanding
dynamic relationships between evolving hazards,
growing economic exposure and socio-ecological
vulnerability. Coastal urbanization patterns and
regional climate projections further underscore the
urgent need for trans-disciplinary research that
involves non-traditional partners, such as informal
communities and the private sector, in crafting and
implementing whole-of society efforts towards
disaster resilience. Recognizing the importance of
local governments and communities in advancing
intersections between the SFDRR, SDGs and the
Paris Climate Agreement, the Philippine
government, private sector, academia and civil
Science Technology
National Resilience Council (Philippines)
Source:
Antonia Loyzaga

30 innovations for DRR
• Jointly published in May 2019 and launched at the
Global Platform for DRR by the APRU Multi-hazards
program, Tohoku University, UNU, Keio University,
University of Tokyo and CWS Japan
• Collects 30 innovations (14 products
/ 16 approaches) to identify the most important,
suitable, and innovative tools
• Includes a survey result on the innovations
considered most effective and useful
30 INNOVATIONS for DRR
PRODUCTS APPROACHES
1 GIS and remote
sensing
9 Seismic micro
zonation
1 Community-based
disaster risk
reduction/management
9 Terminologies of
resilience and
vulnerability (R&V)
2 Drones 10 Earthquake early
warning for high
speed train
2 Hyogo Framework for
Action
10 Post disaster needs
assessment
3 Social Networking
services (SNS)
11 Doppler radar 3 Hazard mapping 11 Transnational
initiative on resilient
cities
4 Concrete and steel:
building material
and infrastructure
12 Disaster resilient
material
4 National Platforms fo r
12 Mobile payment: a
tool for accessing
distribution/funds
after a disaster
5 Disaster risk
insurance
13 Rainwater
harvesting
5 Safe schools and
hospitals
13 A dollar for DRR
saves seven dollars in
disaster
response/recovery
6 Disaster prevention
radio (Bosai
musen) and
telemetry system
14 Electricity
resistant survey
6 Assessments and index
approach: vulnerability
assessment, resilient
index, sustainability
14 Traditional practices
and evacuation
behaviors
7 School cum
cyclone shelter
7 Crowdsourcing 15 Indigenous DRR
technology
8 Seismic code 8 Sphere standard 16 River engineering

Top 10 innovations
Further analysis and survey result are in: Disaster risk reduction andinnovations
(Progress in Disaster Science)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259006171930033X
Innovations
1 Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) (A)
2 Hazard mapping (A)
3 Remote sensing and GIS (P)
4 Assessments and index approach: vulnerability assessment, resilient index,
sustainability (A)
5 Disaster risk insurance (P)
6 National platforms for Disaster Risk Reduction (A)
7 Social Networking Service (SNS) (P)
8 Drones (P)
8 Disaster resilient material (P)
10 Indigenous DRR technology (A)
10 Crowdsourcing (A)
30 innovations linking DRR with SDGs
• Jointly published by the APRU Multi-hazards
program, Tohoku University, UNU, Keio University,
University of Tokyo and CWS Japan
• DRR innovations by 10 sectors: Emergency
response, Health, Gender, Water, Children,
Education, Agriculture, Early warning, Disability,
Livelihood
• Highlighted the link between DRR and SDGs
https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/70713

Top 10 innovations
Top 10 Innovations Sector
1 Ecosystem-based DRR Livelihood
2 Integrated water resources management Waer
3 Earthquake guard: EQ early warning system Early warning
4 A nexus approach toward climate change,
food security, and livelihoods
Livelihood
5 Nationalized cluster coordination
mechanism
Emergency response
6 Green infrastructure Water
7 Mobile clinics Health
8 My timeline: optimizing emergency
evacuation per household
Emergency response
9 Technical vocational education and training Education
10 Disability-inclusive DRR Disability
Strengthening science technology academia community:
Making research more meaningful
• Recognize both natural and social science
• Link technology more affordable and usable
• From disciplinary to multi / trans disciplinary approaches
• From interest based to demand based
• From product based to process based
• Research Training Action Linkage

Citizen science
Technological intervention for Inundation flooding:
Water Level Measurement
Challenges:
- Short duration heavy rainfall
- Non uniform inundation flooding
Copyright 2018 FUJITSU LIMITED
(
( (
) (
: water level
Simple smartphone technology
E 8A 2 102 1
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1E
3A 0 8
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21
Urban water management: Citizen science and involvement
(SMART WATER SOLUTION: https://smartwatersolution.org )

Urban water management:
Awareness and innovation
• Innovation in water management through
appliances and online monitoring
• Tap aerator (increase the appearance of
water flow)
• Eco-tap / eco-brake
• Online monitoring though mobile
phone
• Entrepreneur mindset and ecosystem :
incubation hub (government – academic –
enterprise linkage)
Sciencepreunership: Science based entrepreunership
How to bring Youth and Young Professionals
to solve local problems and
achieve the targets of SDGs?
Resilience Innovation Knowledge Academy (RIKA)
www.rikaindia.com

Government role is to develop the entrepreneurship ecosystem
Academia role is to establish incubator in universities with partnership with
government, private, civil societies
Sciencepreuner (Scientist + Entrepreneur) bring research into the core of disaster
management activities of the private sector and policy making
Research
Innovation
Knowledge
Private Sector Policy
Science and
Technology
Private Sector
Private Sector currently
engages in Response, PPP &
BCP
Innovations in Private Sector
is limited to products
Participation of private
sector is limited to large and
medium enterprises
The S&T
mostly limited
to university
networks.
Resilience Innovation Knowledge Academy
Incubator Approach
• Working closely with the universities
• The repository of students and faculty research can be accessed,
customized, scaled, repackaged and presented for possible funding
and also for global visibility.
• The incubator will support “Start to Scale” support for socio-
economic and technology entrepreneurship and facilitates the
conversion of research activity into entrepreneurial ventures.

DRR sector needs a major shift in Asia
• DRR as public goods
• EWS is a good public good
• Resilient infra as a good public
good
• Disaster relief as a bad public
good
• Open science policy
• [open, accessible, efficient, democratic,
and transparent]
Source: UNESCO 2019
Open Science Components
Open source
Open data
Open innovation
Citizen science
Crowd funding
Society 5.0
Dynamic evolution and inter-connectedness (Infrastructure and Intra-
structures)

Sendai Framework
Sciencepreunership
Incubation
Implementaiton technology
Process technology
Tranferable Indigenous Knowledge
Open science
Open Data
Young professionals
Society 5.0
Citizen science Innovation
Product versus process
Science advice to government
Science link to people
Inclusiveness
Digital divide
Investment in science
Demand based science
Multi-disciplinary science
Meaningful research

Urban-Rural linkages
& resilience building
Vibhas Sukhwani
PhD Candidate
Graduate School of Media & Governance,
Keio University
, Japan
Aug 20, 2021
Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability
Global trends in urbanisation
In 1950, one-third of the world’s population lived in cities; today the number has
already reached more than one-half, and in 2050 city dwellers are expected to account
for more than two-thirds of the world’s population.
Urban and Rural population growth
(1950-2050)
Asia, Africa will have a
greater share of urban
population over the
next 30 years

Global Urban Population
Cities take up 2% of the space but are responsible for:
1976: 37.9 %
1996: 45.1 %
2016: 54.5 %
70 % of global economy
60 % of energy consumption
70 % of carbon emissions
70 % of waste
Source: Habitat III United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development

People
Natural
Resources
Goods
Finances
Information
Culture
Waste &
Pollution
Urban Areas Rural Areas
Interdependencies
Underlining Urban-Rural linkages
What are Urban-Rural linkages?
• A basic definition of urban-rural linkages is that they consist of flows (of goods,
people, information, finance, waste, information, social relations) across space,
linking rural and urban areas.
• Urban and rural areas have different and often complementary assets which
are integrated through a broad set of linkages.
VERY RURAL
RURAL
SMALL TOWN
PERI-URBAN
VERY-URBAN
(METROPOLITAN AREAS)
URBAN
Spatial
linkages
Sectoral
linkages
The Urban-Rural Continuum

World Population Growth Trends
1830 A.D. - 1 Billion : 3 Billion years
1930 A.D. - 2 Billion : After 100 years
1960 A.D. - 3 Billion : After 30 Years
2012 A.D. - 7 Billion
Power of
Doubling?
Every second, the total
population of world cities
grows by 2 people
Source: Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2015);
Mariani, Luisana. "Urban Resilience Hub". urbanresiliencehub.org. Retrieved 2018-04-04.
The first 30 years of this
century will see more habitat
and farmland converted for
urban use than throughout
the whole history
828 Million people live in
slums. Every year, 6 million
more join them.
Cities Produce three-
quarters of the world’s
greenhouse gas emissions
More than 3 million people
in cities die each year due to
air pollution
Every day another 1,400
cars join the streets of
Indian capital Indian capital
New Delhi, ranked the most
polluted in the world for PM
2.5 fine particles by the
WHO
By 2030, China’s coastline
from Hangzhou to near
Shenyang will be one
continuous urban sprawl
stretching 1100 miles
Thirteen of the most
populated cities in the world
are coastal trading hubs that
are vital in global supply
chains.
Internal climate migrants are
rapidly becoming the
human face of climate
change.
Without major new defences
or cuts in carbon emissions,
the global cost of flooding in
cities could rise from $6bn a
year in 2005 to $1 trillion in
2050
US cities average eight
more summer days
above 32 ⁰C than the
countryside around them.
18 out of the 20 biggest cities
in the world and 88% of the
global population are in the
northern hemisphere
where temperatures are
rising fastest
According to UN-Habitat,
approximately one third of
the urban population in the
developing world resides in
slum communities.
By 2030, global demand for
energy and water is expected
to grow by 40 and 50
percent respectively.
It is estimated that 200
million people worldwide
live along the coastlines
less than 5 metres
above sea level.
Up to 77 million urban
residents could fall back
into poverty by 2030 in a
likely scenario of high climate
impacts and inequitable
economic growth.
KEY FACTS

➢ Urban and rural areas often meet their
water demands from shared stock of finite
water resources, which are mostly outside
the city boundaries.
➢ Water reallocation from rural to urban
regions has become a common strategy to
meet the growing demands in urban areas
(Garrick et al. 2019).
➢ One-third of world’s surface-water
dependent cities are already vulnerable
due to competition with agricultural users
(Padowski and Gorelick 2014).
Urban-Rural Water Linkages
Urban-Rural Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Information Source: IRENA
2015; Stephan et al. 2018
WEF nexus refers to the intricate relationships and trade-offs between these tightly linked systems
70% of global
freshwater used by
agriculture sector
30% of world energy
consumed by food sector
15% of global
freshwater withdrawals
for energy production
Climate
Change
Population
Growth
Current
Resource
Shortfalls
+55% by 2050
+80% by 2050 +60% by 2050
844 million people
lack access to safe drinking
water (WHO, 2017)
1.1 billion people
lack access to energy
(IEA, 2017)
815 million people
do not have secure access
to food (FAO, 2017)
9.8 billion by 2050
Water-Energy-Food-Nexus Perspective
Urban-rural linkages have gained greater prominence over the past decade in
international development discourse and has emerged as one of the core
principles of sustainable development in the global development framework.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
In September 2015, world leaders adopted the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. While the SDGs are not legally binding, governments are
expected to take ownership and establish national frameworks for their achievement.
In 2015, building on previous work, UN-Habitat
and development partners defined 10 entry
points to Urban-Rural Linkages.
i. Spatial flows of products, services and
information/expertise between urban and
rural areas;
ii. Mobility and migration between urban and
rural areas;
iii. Food security systems and a “sustainability
chain” for all;
iv. Rural urbanization: the development of
small and intermediate towns;
v. The urban–rural continuum in the face of
conflicts and disasters;
vi. Reducing environmental impacts in urban-
rural convergences;
vii. Regional and territorial planning for
integrated urban and rural development;
viii. Enhancing legislation, governance and
capacity;
ix. Partnerships between urban and rural
areas; and
x. Inclusive investment and finance in both
urban and rural areas.
The New Urban Agenda
UN-Habitat 2017

Urban-Rural settings
Reciprocal and repetitive flows of people, goods, services, money and environmental services takes
place between specific rural and urban locations.
URBAN
AREA
RURAL
RURAL
RURAL
RURAL
FOOD
WATER
TECHNOLOGY
FINISHED
GOODS
LABOUR
RAW MATERIAL EMPLOYMENT
FINANCES
Infrastructure linkages Economic linkages Social linkages Institutional linkages
Environmental linkages
CITY
Food
Energy
Goods
Inputs Outputs
Recycled
Recycled
Organic
Waste
Inorganic
Waste
Organic
Wastes
(Landfill, Sea
dumping)
Emissions
(CO2, SO2))
Inorganic
Wastes
(Landfill)
A model to facilitate the description and analysis of the flows
of the materials and energy within cities
Urban Metabolism

Cities use resources from a much wider area, for building materials,
energy, food, disposal of waste, pollution. This larger area can be
considered the urban ecological footprint.
An urban ‘ecological
footprint’ is simply the total
amount of the earth's
surface needed to support a
given city's level of
consumption and absorb its
waste products
Urban Ecological Footprint
Reciprocal and repetitive flows of people, goods, services, money and environmental services takes
place between specific rural and urban locations.
URBAN
AREA
RURAL
RURAL
RURAL
RURAL
FOOD
WATER
TECHNOLOGY
FINISHED
GOODS
LABOUR
RAW MATERIAL EMPLOYMENT
FINANCES
Infrastructure linkages Economic linkages Social linkages Institutional linkages
Environmental linkages
Regional perspective
approach
Urban-Rural settings

8 geographical
regions in Japan
‘Region’
• Any portion of earth’s surface where
physical conditions are homogeneous
can be considered as a Region in
geographic sense, ranging from a single
feature to multiple, depending on the
criteria used for delineation.
• For example: agriculture region, resource
region, city region, planning region,
industrial region, backward region etc.
• In simple words, it can be referred to as a
territorial area of similar
characteristics, which is bigger than local
area and smaller than the country/nation.

A territorial area characterized by high frequency of intra-regional
economic interaction, such as intra-regional trade in goods and services,
labour commuting, and household shopping.
Functional Region
Regional Planning builds on the orderly and systematic
anticipation of the future of a region.
It is the science of efficient placement of
land use activities, infrastructure, and settlement growth across a
larger area of land than an individual city or town.
What is Regional Planning?

i) A Model of Agricultural Land Use (1826)
ii) Central place theory (1933)
iii) Perroux’s Growth Pole Theory/Model (1955)
Regional Planning Theories
Land use: a function of transport costs to markets and the farmer’s land rent.
A Model of Agricultural Land Use (1826)
The Von Thunen model of agricultural land use was created by farmer and
amateur economist J.H. Von Thunen (1783-1850) in 1826. It shows how
market processes determined land use in different geographical locations.
1
2
3
4
Central City
Intensive Farming and Dairying
Forestry
Increasing extensive field crops
Ranching, Animal Products

Central Place Theory (CPT) is an attempt to
explain the spatial arrangement, size, and
number of settlements. The theory was
originally published in 1933 by a German
geographer Walter Christaller. The theory
consists of two basic concepts:
• Threshold-- the minimum population that is
required to bring about the provision of certain
good or services
• Range-- the average maximum distance
people will travel to purchase goods and
services
Central Place Theory (1933)
Threshold
Range
Perroux Growth Pole Theory (1955)
• ‘Growth Pole’ – concept introduced by Francis
Perroux (a French Regional Economist)
Growth Pole: A central location of economic activity
• A point where economic growth starts and spreads to
surrounding areas
• An urban location where economic activity ignites (cause)
growth and better quality of life in the urban periphery

Perroux Growth
Pole Theory
▪ The core idea of the growth poles
theory is that economic development,
or growth, is not uniform over an
entire region, but instead takes place
around a specific pole
▪ This pole is often characterized by a
key industry around which linked
industries develop, mainly through
direct and indirect effects
▪ The expansion of this key industry
implies the expansion of output,
employment, related investments, as
well as new technologies and new
industrial sectors
The Fifth Basic Environment Plan of the Government of Japan (2018)
highlighted the concept of Regional Circular and Ecological Sphere (Regional-
CES) as key to promote the developmentof sustainablesocieties
Goal: Decentralized and self reliant society
◆ Explore simultaneous solutions for economic, regional and international challenges
◆ Maximize sustainable use of regional resources
◆ Enriching and strengthening partnerships

❖ Towards New Paradigms In Urban-Rural Linkages (2018-20)
Fostering Innovations For Collective Resilience Through Multi-sector Engagements
Co-funded by Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Indian Council of
Social Science Research (ICSSR)
❖ Building Urban-Rural Partnership for Resilience Future
Promoting Regional Circular and Ecological Sphere Concept for Sustainable
Resource Management and Collective Resilience of Urban and Rural Regions in
Nagpur Metropolitan Area
Funded by Institute for Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan
Recent Research Projects in India
Coordinated by Prof. Rajib Shaw’s
Global Resilience and Innovation Laboratory (GRIL)
• Nagpur, often called the heart of India, is at the geographical center of the country.
• It is recognized as a major commercial and political centre of the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra.
Nagpur City, Maharashtra State, India
Projectedto bethe fifth fastest growingcity in the worldfrom2019-2035 withan
averagegrowthof 8.41% (Oxford Economics,2018)
City Population-2.498 million
Metropolitan Area-1.037 million
(Census 2011)
Prominent power sector
Nagpur District
Nagpur
City
Nagpur
Metropolitan
Area
Nagpur Metropolitan Area includes 721 villages
spreading across an area of 3,567 km2.
Selected under Smart Cities Mission
Witnessing tremendous growth
13th largest urban agglomeration in India

Nagpur has recently experienced high climate variability
Image: Urban flooding in Nagpur on 6th
July, 2018
Image: : Heat Waves in Maharashtra
Lack of awareness about rainwater
harvesting and water conservation
practices is worsening the dry summers
High spatial and temporal variations in water availability
Water stress situation is evident in rural areas as
ground water levels are going down
The highest recorded temperature in the city was 48 °C on 19th May 2015
Pench dam
Totaladoh dam
Pench
River
Water Utilization From Pench Project (1990-2019)

• Nagpur region has experienced acute water shortage in the recent years.
Thermal
Power
Plants
Pench
Reservoir
Command Area
The decline in water availability in Pench reservoir
has raised cross-sectoral concerns in Nagpur
region, mainly for food and energy sector
Google Earth Imagery of Nagpur Metropolitan Area
Media Reports
Field surveys
in villages near
the water
sources areas
Household
surveys in
rural areas to
understand
the urban
linkages
Origin-
Destination
Surveys to
assess the
flow of people
Understandingtheflowof peoplein NMA

Visualizingthe Urban-Rural Linkages
Administrative Map of India
Nagpur
State boundaries
Maharashtra State
COVID-19 situation in Nagpur, India
Nagpur is one of the COVID-
19 hotspots in Central India
Confirmed cases: 1753 (as of 7th July 2020)
COVID-19 Monitoring Dashboard by Public Health
Department , Government of Maharashtra
Maharashtra is India’s worst-
affected state from COVID-19
Latest Confirmed cases: 493,097 (as of 19 Aug 2021)
24 April 2021

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Number
of
confirmed
COVID-19
cases
1st
Outbreak
2nd
Outbreak
3rd
Outbreak
• T
est, Track & Monitoring strengthened
• Epidemic Disease Act, 1897 invoked
• Major public places closed down
• Advisories issued at largescale
• Special helpline numbers announced
• Control rooms & Isolation wards set- up
• City governments partners with local
chemists and merchants for continued
supply of essentials
• Drones deployed for surveillance
Panic buying and fake news circulation Wholesale market areas closed down Food supply chains critical
• Wholesale market areas temporary
closed for sanitization. Later
reopened with restriction.
• 24 open grounds designated to
decentralize the food markets.
• Shelter camps, Community
kitchens to support the migrants.
• Enhanced home delivery of food
products.
• Citizen friendly helplines and
Mobile apps launched
• T
esting increased
• 50 more suspects detected
• Wholesale markets sealed
• Most of designated open
grounds closed down
• Rise in panic
Nation-wide lockdown announced
City & district lockdown
Nationwide lockdown was enforced in India
since 24th March 2020
Initial Timeline of COVID-19
outbreak in Nagpur
First confirmed case was
detected on 12th March
Strict transport limitations
Intermediaries
Wholesale
Market
Retail Market Urban residents
Rural farmers
Wholesale
Markets
Wholesale
Markets
During normal times During COVID-19 pandemic
Nagpur
city area
Nagpur
Metropolitan
Area
Traditional Food Supply Chain
Rural
Areas
Designated
Open Grounds
Legend
Need for resilience building

Summary: Key Points
1. Defining urban and rural problematic
2. Increasingly complex inter-relations
3. Limited knowledge of urban-rural dynamics
4. Discrete administration
5. Persisting sectoral approaches
-Need to change the ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ lens
-Acknowledging the growing interdependencies
-Encouraging evidence-based research at grassroots-level
-Enhancing policy coordination
-Multi-stakeholder Engagement and Partnerships
Stakeholders
Private
Sector
Public Sector
Communities Civil Society
Organizations
Media
Academia
Multi-Sectoral
Approaches
…the mutual
interactions fordifferent
sectors need to be
investigated
Multi-Level
Governance
…the national and local
objectives need to be
implemented at all
levels of governance
Multi-
Stakeholder
…actors should
collaborate accordingto
a common development
agenda

Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster
Risk Management, Resilience and
Sustainability
CERTIFICATE COURSE
Large-scale disaster and
the role of school
Tomonori Ichinose,
National University Corporation Miyagi University of Education, Professor
Former Director of Center for Disaster Education & Future Design
ichinose@staff.miyakyo-u.ac.jp

• We have just followed the
teachers’ instruction！But…
Tragedy of Okawa
Elementary school
News
Flash
2019.10
The Sendai High Court ordered local
authorities to pay around 1.4 billion ($13
million) in damages to the childrenʼs families,
raising the amount of compensation by about
10 million from a lower court ruling.
A high court ruled Thursday that the deaths of
over 74 Okawa Elementary School students in
tsunami following the March 2011 earthquake
in Tohoku could have been prevented if
Miyagi Prefecture and the city of Ishinomaki
had updated its disaster contingency plan.

News
Flash
2019.10
The authorities “failed to fulfill their obligation to
revamp a risk management manual in line with
the realities of Okawa Elementary School,” Judge
Hiroshi Ogawa said, adding that “If the manual
had designated a 20-meter-high location for
evacuation” the deaths could have been
prevented.
A total of 74 pupils and 10 teachers and officials
died in the tsunami that followed the magnitude
9 earthquake on March 11, 2011. The tsunami
engulfed the students and teachers as they
began evacuating to an area near a 7-meter-high
riverbank.
Okawa E.S
4KM

A Magnitude 9 Huge Earthquake and
Big Tsunami Wave
magnitude 9
The maximum seismic intensity was 7. The maximum height of
Tsunami was reached 40M.

What do you think?
• Do you think the city board of education, teachers are
they guilty or not guilty?
• Nobody can face and accept parents, their deep
sadness, sorrow.
• We need to updated disaster preparedness plan for
creating disaster resilient school.

Condition of the children evacuate from
the disaster-stricken area
• The scale of the earthquake was extremely large as the number of fatalities
is 15,892 and the number of missing people is 2,539 (by Japanese Police
office March 2019).
• Loss of life : Total 522 students and teachers(plus number of people whose
safety is unknown: 236 students), the number of damaged school buildings
is 754.
• Children evacuated from the disaster-stricken area (25,516), Fukushima
radiation contamination area (almost 12,000).
• Orphan and children left after their parents' death (total 1,698),
• The Children of ethnic minorities/Children of special needs (almost 300)
Accident occurred at Fukushima
Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Collapse of regional communities and schools
Collapse of regional communities
Collapse of schools (education)
• Collapse of school buildings (they cannot be used due to the
earthquake or tsunami). They are being used as shelters.
• Decrease in children and students (fled to other areas
outside the school areas, changed schools, deaths)
• Suffering of teachers (deaths, parents or families became
victims, damage to housing)
Collapse of the roles of schools
Schools are places for students and teachers to gather as
the center of the regional communities
Schools located in the
safety area near the
affected area.
Schools located between
the affected area and
safe area that
accommodated many
evacuees.
Schools directly affected
and isolated by the
disaster.
• They acted as a relay point
for relief goods.
• They became lodgings and
bases of operation.
•It is difficult for school staff
members to operate shelters.
• Mutually supportive
relationships are key to the
smooth operation of the
shelter.
• Local residents were
evacuated to the school.
Stocked relief supplies were
insufficient.
• People were rescued by
professionals after several
hours.

Category 1:
Schools directly damaged by the disaster
• Although evacuation from the tsunami was announced over the
community wireless system after the earthquake, people were not able
to hear what was being said.
• Mobile telephone lines were tied up immediately after the quake and
no wireless station was available. There was no communication
method to seek assistance from police, fire stations, or the school board,
so the people became isolated.
• When the floods came, citizens witnessed tragedy firsthand. Their
houses or family members were swept away by the tide, and teachers
made painstaking efforts to keep such dreadful scenes away from
children’s eyes.
• Local residents were evacuated to the school. Relief supplies, including
blankets, emergency food, drinking water, and flashlights, were
insufficient, and therefore, they were not supplied to all evacuees.
Category 1:
Schools directly damaged by the disaster
• It snowed, but no heating was available. Evacuees used
newspaper and curtains to ward off the cold.
• They had to fight against not only submerging in the water
and isolation, but also against secondary disasters, including
burning, floating debris and forest fires.
• While they were waiting for rescue, evacuees panicked in
the psychology of crowds (in fear of explosions of gas holder
and electric leakage).
• The toilets could not be flushed, so establishing temporary
toilets (e.g., using water from swimming pools) became
essential.

Category 2:
Schools that became shelters
• A contingency planning manual states that a shelter shall be
established by persons dispatched from a city office when a disaster
strikes. However, no transportation was available, no one was
dispatched to support the shelter, and the school had to accommodate
a number of evacuees on its own.
• It was difficult for school staff members to operate shelters. Whether
evacuees, (i.e., the members of local residents’ organizations, including
residents' association and fire-fighting teams) could voluntarily
operate them determined the quality of the operation.
• The amount of stocked relief supplies, including blankets, emergency
food, and drinking water, was not nearly enough compared with the
number of evacuees. Whether stores and residents in the vicinity of the
school worked together to provide food, blankets, etc., also determined
the environment of the shelter.
Category 2:
Schools that became shelters
• Because it was too cold in shelters with no heating equipment, some
shelters asked evacuees to stay in cars parked in schoolyards to ward
off the cold.
• Measures to prevent the spread of infection were required when a
number of residents stayed together in school buildings.
• Mutually supportive relationships were key to the smooth operation of
shelters. Examples include the help of local residents to reestablish
school systems and the support of residents by the pupils of the junior
and senior high schools that were used as shelters.
• Accommodating all local residents included accommodating people
with mental diseases and the homeless. In addition, precautions
against crime were required.
• Some schools in the heart of a city or along railroad lines had to
accommodate as many as 2,500 evacuees.

Category 3:
Schools that did not act as shelters
• Some schools outside the disaster-stricken area had no
damage and did not need to provide shelter. They assumed
the function of a relay point for relief goods at first. Later,
after the Self-Defense Forces had arrived, they became
lodging areas and bases of operation.
• Corpses were transported to the schools that served no other
function and were vacant, and many of them had to be used
as mortuaries.

Schools located in the
safety area near the
affected area.
Schools located
between the affected
area and safety area.
Schools directly
affected and isolated
by the disaster.
• After the disaster, they played a
core role in consolidation of
disaster affected school.
• School buildings and school
grounds were used as temporary
housing for a long period of time
after the disaster.
• School districts were obsolete, and
schools were abolished some time
after the disaster.
Children moved to the safety zone
School combination

https://www.nippon.com/ja/japan-
data/h00954/
Schools how to work together with local
community
• During the earthquake, the relationship between
communities and schools played an important role in
establishing and operating evacuation centers. From the
experience, local residents have gained an awareness of the
school as an imperative part of a local community.
• Continuation of DRR practices resulted in a deepened,
mutual understanding and communication among children
and students, parents, community residents, and social
education facilities, such as community centers.

• Hashikami Junior High School was famous for the DRR before the East
Japan Earthquake. Previously, drills were carried out following the themes
of "Self-Help," "Mutual-Help," and "Public-Help” in three-year cycles.
• With the cooperation of local neighborhood associations “Hashikami Junior
High School District Disaster Preparedness Promotion Committee” was
newly established and the school carried out evacuation drills jointly with
neighborhoods.
• Oya Primary School (215 students), in which the first floor was flooded by
the tsunami, performed a joint disaster drill with a kindergarten and junior
high school. 30 local residents living in temporary housing in the schoolyard
also participated in this drill, walking to the hinterland 15 minutes away
from the school with Oya students.
• After the earthquake and tsunami in 2011, in collaboration with the local
society, maintenance on the evacuation route to the hill behind the school
was begun. The forest behind Kitakami Elementary School was maintained
through cooperation with the Miyagi Forest Instructor Association. The hill
became a place of disaster reduction and disaster prevention.
HASHIKAMI JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL
Disaster
Stricken
Area
Experient
ial
Learning
Program
Experient
ial
Exposure
to the
Realities
Start
Inquiry
Based
Learning

Proposal
to the
Local
Communi
ty
Dialogue
to the
Local
Communi
ty
Hand
down the
Lessons
to
Elementa
ry School
Kids
Promote
to Learn
with
ASPnet
Schools
HASHIKAMI JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL
TRANSFORMATIVE ACTION
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction 2015 - 2030
• 36. (a) Civil society, volunteers, organized voluntary work
organizations and community-based organizations to participate, in
collaboration with public institutions, to, inter alia, provide specific
knowledge and pragmatic guidance in the context of the development
and implementation of normative frameworks, standards and plans
for disaster risk reduction;
• engage in the implementation of local, national, regional and global
plans and strategies;
• contribute to and support public awareness, a culture of prevention
and education on disaster risk; and advocate for resilient
communities and an inclusive and all-of-society disaster risk
management that strengthen synergies across groups, as appropriate.

Consortium System to create Sustainable District
By the promotion of ministry of Education
• In the financial year of 2014, MUE was admitted to obtain a
UNESCO activities assistance grant by the Ministry of Education
in JAPAN (MEXT) to formalize a consortium in the Tohoku region.
• MUE will obtain this fund until the financial year 2016. This
consortium project will be formalized following human resources;
①Miyagi University of Education
②UNESCO Associated schools (ESD schools) in the Tohoku
③Local board of education
④Local federation association of UNESCO
⑤Sendai ESD-RCE promotion committee consisting of the City
Environment Bureau, NPOs and companies.
DRR Model School
in Vietnam
Greater Sendai RCE
Sendai/Kesennuma/
Ohsaki/Shiroishi City
Miyagi prefecture etc,
UNESCO Association
・Sendai UNESCO
・Kesennuma UNESCO
・Shiroishi UNESCO
Board of Education
・Kesennuma City BOE
・Tadami Town BOE
・Daisen City BOE etc.
UNESCO School in Tohoku（87schools）
・Miyagi 76（Kesennuma・Ohsaki etc.）
・Akita 3/Iwate 1/Yamagata 4/Fukushima 3
Miyagi University of Education
・EIU Research Center
・EE Research Center
・Education Recovery Center
Enterprise
・AXA Insurance co.
・UNY Group Holdings
・Tohoku Chamber of
Environment
Advisory Member
・UN University
・NFUAJ
・ACCU
ESD Coodinator
Region
University
Administration
School
Non-formal
Education
Yagiyama
Zoo
Non-UNESCO
School
Aomori,
Akita,
Iwate
Korean
UNESCO School
China ESD
Committee
UNESCO School in Japan
Other ESD Consortium
advocacy
Exchange
ESD/UNESCO School Tohoku Consortium
Collaboration
Structure of ESD Tohoku Consortium
Exchange Exchange
Exchange

United Nations Universityʼs Regional
Center of Expertise (RCEs)
• One effective collaborative network to promote
ESD regionally is United Nations University’s
Regional Center of Expertise (RCEs).
• Greater Sendai RCEs supports teachers who are
engaged in DRR education within the framework
of ESD. Local universities, board of education
and other private sector organizations provide a
variety of resources to the practicing educators.
• Greater Sendai regions contribute to filling the
gap between the traditional disaster education
and education for SDGs in the local school system.
• Sendai Global
Seminar Executive
Committees
• United Nations
University
• Miyagi University of
Education
• Kahoku Shinpo
Newspaper
• Japan International
Cooperation
Agency Tohoku
branch
• Ministry of
Environment
• Miyagi Prefectural
Government
• Sendai City
Government
Local
Governm
ent
Business
Media
NPO
Citizens
Universiti
es
Schools
Greater Sendai
ESD/RCE Steering
Committee
MUE
ESD/RCE Promotion
Committee
Sendai Area ESD(City
of Trees (Mori-no-
Miyako) Citizens
Environmental
Education Learning
Promoting Forum)
Osaki & Tajiri Area
RCE (Tajiri Town
General Branch
Office Japanese
Association for Wild
Geese Protection
Board of Education)
Kesennuma Area
RCE (Kesennuma
City, Kesennuma
Board of Education,
Omose Elementary
School）
Shiroishi &
Hichigashuku
RCE
Greater Sendai RCE is the initial 7 of RCE
funded 2005

Conclusion • Continuation of these practices resulted in a
deepened, mutual understanding and
communication among children and students,
parents, community residents, and social
education facilities, such as community centers.
• Train teachers who have a disaster prevention
mind.
• Establish the disaster prevention program as
part of the curriculum for training teachers.
• The concept of the sustainable development of
society proposed by the UNESCO provides
important suggestions for relationship-building
between local communities and schools. It is
necessary, across the region, to strengthen the
ability to fight against disasters, and contribute
to the restoration of local communities through
the activities of Education for Sustainable
Development (ESD).
• https://www.sankei.com/photo/story
/news/171120/sty1711200002-n1.html

• 緑の防潮堤」の
イメージ（資料:国
⼟交通省東北地⽅
整備局）
Along
with
seacoast
400KM
https://www.nacsj.or.jp/archive/2013/07
/1221/

Address; Tomonori
ICHINOSE
〒980-0845
149,AramakaiazaAob
a,Aobaku,Sendai
TEL ：+81-22-214-
3382 FAX ：+81-
22-214-3382
MAIL：
ichinose@staff.miyak
yo-u.ac.jp
• Member of International Network of JTES & DCSE at UNESCO Chair of Daugavpils
University
• Planning/Implementing academic research
• UNESCO Chair at Daugavpils University Apr 20, 2021 - Present
• Member of UNESCO Associated Schools Network, Collaborative Action Research on the
Role of Schools in Achieving SDGs in Asia-Pacific
• Planning/Implementing academic research
• UNESCO Bangkok Asia-Pacific Regional Bureau for Education Jan, 2021 - Present
• Member of ASPnet TEI Change Initiative
• Planning, management, etc.
• UNESCO, Unit for the UNESCO Associated Schools Network, Division for Peace and
Sustainable Development Nov, 2020 - Present
• Editorial Board member, Asia Pacific Journal of Educators and Education
• Peer review
• University Sains Malaysia Jan 1, 2019 - Present
• External Examiner of Master of Arts in Education for Sustainability
• Review, evaluation
• The Education University of Hong Kong Dec, 2018 - Present
• Board member of ProSPER.Net
• United Nation University Jul, 2018 - Present
• Editorial Board member, Journal of Teacher Education for Sustainability (JTES), Latvia
• Peer review
• UNESCO Chair at Daugavpils University Jan, 2018 - Present
• Deputy Director of Asian Pacific Institution of Education for Sustainable Development,
China
• China National Working Committee of Education for Sustainable Development Jun 1,
2014 - Present
East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
Evacuation, Communication, Education and Volunteerism
By
Rajib Shaw ,
Yukiko Takeuchi
Education for Sustainable
Development and Disaster
Risk Reduction
Editors: Shaw, Rajib,
Oikawa, Yukihiko (Eds.)

Climate Change Impacts on
Hydroclimatic Extremes:
Evidences from Modeling Studies
Dr. Sangam Shrestha
CERTIFICATE COURSE
Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability 1
Lecture
Outline
Hydroclimatic extremes: facing
the facts
Section
A
Hydroclimatic extremes under
climate change: case studies
Section
B
Q & A
Section
C
2

Deadly Floods in Germany
(Start data: 12 July 2021)
4

Subway Floods in Zhengzhou, China
July 20, 2021
Heat Waves in Europe
(August 13, 2021)
7

Thailand tackles worst drought
in 40 years (Feb, 2020)
• Thailand has been hit with what
may be its worst drought in 40
years, pummelling sugar
production in one of the world's
biggest exporters of the
sweetener.
• Sugar output may tumble about
30% to 9 million-10 million
tonnes, while cane output is
forecast to fall below 90 million
tonnes from about 130 million in
the previous season because of
the dry weather, according to an
industry body.
(Bangkok Post)
Cracks in a rice field show the effects of severe drought in Ayutthaya's
Nakhon Luang district. The drought is the worst in decades.
8
Disasters triggered by natural hazards (1960 ꟷ 2019)
Source: World Disasters Report, 2020 (IFRC) 9

Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 0.93 of a degree C
above the 20th-century average of 15.8 degrees C, making it the hottest July since records
began 142 years ago. It was 0.01 of a degree C higher than the previous record set in July
2016, which was then tied in 2019 and 2020.
10
10 disasters
that affected
the most
people in
2019
Source: World Disasters
Report, 2020 (IFRC)
11

Total deaths by disasters type (2000-2019)
12
Financial impacts of
disaster losses
(1980sꟷ2010s)
• Source: World Disasters Report, 2020 (IFRC)
13
1US$ = 0.91CHF

Extreme events and climate
change
• Heat: It is virtually certain that “there has been increases in the intensity
and duration of heatwaves and in the number of heatwave days at the
global scale”.
• Heavy rainfall: The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events “have
likely increased at the global scale over a majority of land regions”.
• Flooding: Models project “a larger fraction of land areas to be affected
by an increase in river floods than by a decrease in river floods”.
• Drought: “More regions are affected by increases in agricultural and
ecological droughts with increasing global warming”.
• Tropical cyclones: “It is likely that the proportion of major TC intensities
and the frequency of rapid intensification events have both increased
globally over the past 40 years.”
• Compound events: “Compound hot and dry conditions become more
probable in nearly all land regions as global mean temperature
increases.”
15

Extreme events and
climate change
(Projection)
• Source: IPCC (2021)
16
Extreme events and
climate change
(Projection)
• Source: IPCC (2021)
17

Challenges
• How to detect and attribute hydrometeorological extremes to climate
change?
• How to predict the hydrometeorological extremes under climate
change?
• What are the socio-economic impacts from hydrometeorological
extremes (space and time)?
• How to increase the resilience of infrastructure and society in
response to hydrometeorological extremes caused by climate
change?
18
Hydroclimatic
extremes
under climate
change: case
studies
• Budhi Gandaki River Basin (Nepal)
• Songkhram River Basin (Thailand)
• Upper Citarum River Basin (Indonesia)
19

Study Basins
• Budhi Gandaki River Basin (Nepal)
[Budhi Gandaki Hydropower Project
(Storage, 1200MW)]
• Songkhram River Basin (Thailand)
[Ramsar site, rich in biodiversity]
• Upper Citarum River Basin (Indonesia)
[Agriculture, water supply, fishery, industry,
and electricity (3HPPs)]
20
21
Songkhram River (Thailand)
Upper Citarum River (Indonesia)
Budhi Gandaki River (Thailand)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge
(m3/s)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge
(m3/s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge
(m3/s)
Basin Wet season Dry season
Songkhram River
(Thailand)
May to
October
Nov. to April
Budhi Gandaki
River (Thailand)
June to
August
Sep to May
Upper Citarum
River (Indonesia)
Nov. to
March
April to October

Study Basins
Country Basin
Basin Centroid Elevation (m) Area
(km2
)
Rainfall
(mm/yr)
Tavg
(°C)
Lat Lon Min. Max.
Nepal
Budhi
Gandaki
28.6 84.8 419 7,979 3,848 948 16
Thailand Songkhram 17.6 103.7 52 676 12,885 1,732 27
Indonesia
Upper
Citarum
-7 107.7 634 2,598 1,816 2,230 23
22
Methodology
23
Schematic of hydrologic
processes simulated in
SWAT

24
Budhi Gandaki (NPL)
Songkhram (TH)
Upper Citarum (ID)
Hydrological
extremes
• Q5: The flow in cubic
metres per second which
was equalled or exceeded
for 5% of the specified term
(high flow).
• Q95: The flow in cubic
metres per second which
was equalled or exceeded
for 95% of the flow record
(low flow)
Daily
flow
(m
3
/s)
Q95
Q5
25
The flow-duration curve is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the percent of
time specified discharges were equaled or exceeded during a given period.

Data Used
• ASTER GDEM: Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission
and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation
Model
• ESA: European Space Agency
• LDD: Land Development Department, Thailand
• SOTER: Soil and Terrain
• BCC: Beijing Climate Center, CCCma: Canadian Centre
for Climate Modelling and Analysis
• CMCC: Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti
Climatici
• CNRM-CERFACS: Centre National de Recherches
Météorologiques — Centre Européen de Recherche et
de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique
• NCC: Norwegian Climate Centre
• RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway.
SN Data
Time Period/
Frequency
Source/Developer
1 Topography
ASTER (30m x 30m) 2000–2013 https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/
2 Land cover map
ESA (300 × 300) 1992–2012 https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/
LDD (Vector data) 2002–2007 LDD
3 Soil map
SOTER (1:1,000,000) 1980–1990 https://www.isric.org/explore/soter
FAO (1:5,000,000) 1971–1981
http://www.fao.org/soils-
portal/data-hub/en/
4 Hydro-meteorological data
Precipitation 1975–2015/Daily Relevant national authorities
Temperature 1975–2015/Daily
Discharge 1992–2014/Daily
5 GCMs data RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
• BCC-bcc-csm1-1-m 1974–2100/Daily BCC, China
• (BCC-CSM1.1(m))
• CCCma-CanESM2 1974–2100/Daily CCCma, Canada
• (CanESM2)
• CMCC-CMCC-CMS 1974–2100/Daily CMCC, Italy
• (CMCC-CMS)
• CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5
(CNRM-CM5)
1974–2100/Daily CNRM-CERFACS, France
• NCC-NorESM1-M 1974–2100/Daily NCC, Norway
• (NorESM1-M)
26
Future projected annual average temperature
(Tavg)
17.2
17.5
18.5
19.9
19.3
22.3
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Avg.
Temperature
(ºC)
16.0
27.4
27.7
28.3
29.5
28.9
31.1
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Avg.
Temperature
(ºC)
26.6
24.2
24.6
24.7
26.2
24.9
27.6
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Avg.
Temperature
(ºC)
23.1
B BL N RCP4.5 F RCP8.5
Songkhram (TH)
Upper Citarum (ID)
Budhi Gandaki (NPL)
27
• All the river basins are expected to be
warmer in future with maximum of 6.3
ºC increment in annual average
temperature in Budhi Gandaki River
Basin (Nepal).

Future projected annual minimum &
maximum temperature (Tmin & Tmax)
Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Songkhram (TH)
Upper Citarum (ID)
23.2
23.6
24.5
26.1
25.4
28.5
20
22
24
26
28
30
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Max.
Temperature
(ºC)
21.9
29.4
29.6
30.3
31.1
30.7
32.5
25
27
29
31
33
35
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Max.
Temperature
(ºC)
28.3
32.4
32.8
33.3
34.5
33.9
36.0
30
32
34
36
38
40
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Max.
Temperature
(ºC)
31.7
19.4
19.6
20.5
21.3
21.0
22.7
15
17
19
21
23
25
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Min.
Temperature
(ºC)
17.9
11.3
11.5
12.5
13.6
13.1
16.1
5
10
15
20
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Min.
Temperature
(ºC)
10.2
22.3
22.6
23.3
24.4
24.0
26.1
20
22
24
26
28
30
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Min.
Temperature
(ºC)
21.4
B BL N RCP4.5 F RCP8.5
28
• All the river basins are expected to be warmer in
future with maximum 6.6 ºC increment in annual
maximum and 5.9 ºC increment in annual
minimum temperature, both at Budhi Gandaki
River Basin (Nepal).
Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin
Tmax Tmin
Projected future annual average rainfall
29
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Annual MAM JJA SON DJF
Rainfall
(mm)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Rainfall
(mm)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Rainfall
(mm)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Budhi Gandaki (NPL)
Upper Citarum (ID)
Songkhram (TH)
B BL N NF M MF F FF
• Future annual rainfall is projected to have an increasing trend (up to
15 % increment) under climate change.
• Wet season is expected to be wetter (max. 30% in Songkhram) in all
the selected river basins under climate change.
• Dry season is expected to be drier (max. -15% in Upper Citarum)
except Songkhram river basin (max. 60% of increment) under climate
change.
RCP 4.5
Dry season Dry season
RCP 8.5
Wet season
Wet season
Wet season Wet season
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

Hydrological Modeling
30
Basin Period NSE R2
RSR PBIAS (%)
Budhi Gandaki
C: 1999-2005 0.74 0.83 0.51 22.23
V: 2006-2008 0.77 0.8 0.48 16.18
Songkhram C: 1992-2005 0.79 0.83 0.45 10.04
V: 2008-2010 0.65 0.74 0.59 27.69
Upper Citarum C: 2002-2006 0.63 0.63 0.61 9.05
V: 2007-2008 0.61 0.62 0.63 -1.1
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Discharge
(m3/s)
Observed discharge Simulated discharge
Budhi Gandaki (NPL) Calibration Validation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Discharge
(m3/s) Observed discharge Simulated discharge
Calibration Validation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Discharge
(m3/s)
Observed discharge Simulated discharge
Calibration Validation
Songkhram (TH)
Upper Citarum (ID)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge
(m
3
/s)
Future projected average monthly discharge
31
Budhi Gandaki (NPL)
Upper Citarum (ID)
Songkhram (TH)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
50
100
150
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge
(m3/s)
0
40
80
120
160
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Discharge
(m3/s)
B BL N NF M MF F FF
• Wet season discharge is projected to increase in all the
selected river basins (max. 100% in Songkhram river basin).
• Dry season discharge is expected to increase in Budhi
Gandaki River (NPL) (3 to 64%) and Songkhram River (TH) (10
to 81%) whereas reduction is expected in Upper Citarum
River (ID) (-0.1 to -13%).
Wet season
RCP 4.5
Dry season Dry season
RCP 8.5
Wet season
Wet season Wet season
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

Future projected hydrological extremes
(Q5 & Q95)
32
400
410
420
430
440
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Change
in
Q5
(m
3
/s)
25
27
29
31
33
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Change
in
Q95
(m
3
/s)
500
1000
1500
2000
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Change
in
Q5
(m
3
/s)
0
2
4
6
8
10
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Change
in
Q95
(m
3
/s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Change
in
Q95
(m
3
/s)
150
160
170
180
190
200
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Change
in
Q5
(m
3
/s)
Budhi Gandaki (NPL)
Upper Citarum (ID)
Songkhram (TH)
• Both high (Q5) and low flows (Q95) are projected to increase in Budhi
Gandaki River (max. Q5 = 43% and Q95 = 159%) and Songkhram River
(max. Q5 = 4.6% and Q95 = 16%) under climate change.
• In the Upper Citarum River, high flows (Q5) are expected to increase
(max. 13.5%) whereas low flows (Q95) are expected to decrease (max.
23%)
B BL N NF M MF F FF
Q5 Q95 Q5 Q95
Q5 Q95
Implications
33
More water available
(varies with location and time)
Likely to cause more floods
Likely to impact on infrastructure, society and
environment

Anirban Mukhopadhyay
anirbanatju@gmail.com
AIT,DPMM
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for
Sustainability - Geospatial Approach
Remote Sensing
REMOTE SENSING is the process of sensing and
measuring objects from
a distance without
physical
contact with them

Sensing
1.Scanning
2.Characterizing
3.Classification
4.Identification/ Quantification
5.Analysis
SIX STAGES IN REMOTE SENSING
Stage-1. Source of energy
Stage-2. Transmission of EMR towards the Object
Stage-3. Interaction of EMR with the Object
Stage-4. Transmission of Interacted EMR towards the
Sensor
Stage-5. Recording of the Image by the Detector
Stage-6. Analysis of the Imagery
3
1
2
4
5 (Film)
6
3
3
4

Types of RS system
Active RS
system
Passive RS
system
Artificial Energy
source
Natural Energy
source
e.g. radar systems
SAR
e.g.sensors on
satellites
Landsat,SPOT

IMAGING SENSORS
Sensors which provide output to create an image
Eg : LISS I,LISS II, LISS III etc.
output with
NON IMAGING SENSORS
Sensors which provide numerical
respect to the quantum of radiation
Eg: Radiometer
,Scatterometer etc.

Applications of Remote Sensing
forest
Coastal water mapping, soil/vegetation discrimination,
classification, man-made feature identification
Vegetation discrimination and health monitoring, man-made
feature identification
body
Plant species identification, man-made feature identification
Soil moisture monitoring, vegetation monitoring, water
discrimination
Vegetation moisture content monitoring
Surface temperature, vegetation stress monitoring, soil moisture
monitoring, cloud differentiation, volcanic monitoring
Mineral and rock discrimination, vegetation moisture content
~40% of sunlight is reflected by clouds
~20% of sunlight is absorbed by the atmosphere
~40% of sunlight is absorbed by Earth’s surface

Positional registration
In recent satellites
more precise
estimation of the
position is obtained
using the signals of
GPS (Global
Positioning System)
satellites.
3. Positional registration
DORIS system determines the position of TOPEX/Poseidon satellite orbit to
within a few centimetres.
The technique used (known as orbit determination),
consists of locating a satellite in relation to about fifty
ground control points on the Earth's surface.

4. Oceanographic sampling for "sea truth"
The strategy of collecting of samples is very important. The samples must span as
wide range of data values as possible. Typically, transects across the gradients
are used.
4. Oceanographic sampling for "sea truth"
IoE 184 - The Basics of Satellite Oceanography. 3. Remote Sensing of the Sea
Spatial resolution of the
sensor is important as
compared with spatial
variability of the
measured parameter,
because the value
measured within a point
may not be
representative of the
average parameter
within the whole pixel
measured by the
satellite.
MODIS nLw(551) (W/m2/µm/sr)
04/13/2001
33.7
33.8
33.9
34.0
34.1
34.2
34.3
34.4
34.5
-119.8 -119.6 -119.4 -119.2 -119.0 -118.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability"

Completion Report of the Certified Course "Introductory Course on Multidisciplinary Approach for Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Sustainability"

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