Since 2013, the European Urban Resilience Forum (https://urbanresilienceforum.eu) has offered a unique platform where city representatives and stakeholders from various local and regional institutions come together to exchange and discuss strategies and actions to adapt to climate change and build urban resilience. The slides have been in the session “Connecting up the dots between science, municipalities, insurance and climate risk assessment” organised byInsurance2020/OasisHub project

1. Dickie Whitaker & Christopher Genillard
30th of April, 2020
H2020 Oasis project and its implications
for the future of EU policy to promote
climate adaptation and understanding
of risk for all

2. 2
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
The following functions are within the ability of catastrophe models:
Insurance uses
• Assistance with risk selection and pricing
• Understanding of climate change impacts
• Portfolio management
• Calculation of solvency capital and regulatory requirements
Others uses
• Governments and cities
• Cost benefit analysis for larger adaptation schemes
Insurance Market Applications for Insurance Models

3. 3
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• From 1980 to 2017, an estimated USD 4.6 trillion of economic losses were recorded
globally as a result of natural disaster events
• About USD 1.2 trillion were indemnified through insurance, approximately USD 3.4 trillion
remained uninsured,
• Reasons for the gap include:
• Policy decision i.e. Flood not covered peril
• Immature market i.e. Forestry, Agriculture
• Lack of risk understanding by buyer, seller or both
• Lack of Insurance infrastructure
• Cultural weakness
The Protection Gap
The protection gap is the difference between insured losses and economic losses, or uninsured losses.
The protection gap is a global problem and affects emerging nations and developed countries alike.
https://files.swissre.com/natcat-
protection-gap-map/index.html

4. 4
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
1. Lack of models that are openly available
1. Market dominated by ”black box“ models
2. Barriers to entry
3. Academia find it hard to access the marketplace and lack the right incentives
2. Lack of available and open access data
Flood defence data, Exposure data , Damage data
3. Lack of standards
4. Very poor ability in making decisions under uncertainty
Understanding Risk and Climate Change - The Challenge

5. 5
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Actions to Improve the Position
SUPPORT OPEN
MODELS FOR KEY
REGIONS AND
PERILS.
ENSURE KEY
DATASETS
AVAILABLE :
FLOOD DEFENCE
AVAILABLE TO
THE RIGHT
STANDARDS
SUPPORT
PROVISION OF
DAMAGE DATA
ENSURE GENERAL
CIRCULATION
MODELS DATA
AND OTHER
ACADEMIC
INFORMATION IS
IN USABLE
FORMAT
SUPPORT OPEN
DATA FROM
UNIVERSITIES AND
SCIENCE
INSTITUTES
SUPPORT GLOBAL
STANDARDS WHERE
APPROPRIATE
ENSURE THAT
REGULATION FOR
INSURANCE IS
APPROPRIATE
(SOLVENCY II)

6. 6
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
For governments and cities catastrophe modelling…
• Provides a translation function from science to society
• Improves understanding, monitoring and management of natural perils risk and
the impact of climate change
• Supports strategies on mitigation or adaptation measures, or transfer into either
capital markets or the Insurance Industry
• Requires a harmonization of standards and systems used by governments and
cities (e.g. Loss Database Architecture for Disaster Risk Management)
Implications for Governments and Cities and Policy Makers

7. 7
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• Insurance Industry under pressure: Ability to modernize?
• Data Management and Analysis: models to develop & price new forms of insurance cover
• Automation and technology as a huge opportunity (use of existing data in new ways)
• Bundle existing competencies in cross-border and transdisciplinary projects (public &
private sectors)
• Collaboration models to overcome national and institutional boundaries
• Improve understanding, monitoring and management of natural perils risk and the impact
of climate change
Climate Change Impact & NatCat Modelling in Insurance Industry
Current developments and challenges

8. 8
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Implications for Governments, Cities & Policymakers
European Semester: Cohesion policy funds support Member States’ reforms
For the next long-term EU budget 2021-2027, the Commission proposes to modernise
Cohesion Policy
Stronger focus on results: clearer and measurable targets for better accountability.
What were the priorities 2014 - 2020?
Cohesion Policy had set 11 thematic objectives supporting growth for the period 2014-2020.
Where do the deliverables from H2020 Insurance contribute?
• Strengthening research, technological development and innovation (to 1)
• Enhancing access to, and use and quality of, information and communication
technologies (to 2)
• Promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention and management (to 5)
Investment from the ERDF will support all 11 objectives, but 1-4 are the main priorities for
investment.
Main priorities for the ESF are 8-11, though the Fund also supports 1-4.
The Cohesion Fund supports objectives 4-7 and 11.

9. 9
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
EU Solidarity Fund
Implications for Governments, Cities & Policymakers
Motivation
• EUSF set up in 2002 to respond to major natural disasters
• express European solidarity to disaster-stricken regions within Europe
• To date used for 80 disasters covering floods, forest fires, earthquakes, storms and
drought.
• 24 different countries supported so far for an amount of over 5 billion €
Actions for Improvement?
Introduce centralized Data-Driven Analytics and Risk Modelling and Mapping on a
European Scale?
• Predictive Catastrophe Analytics – policymakers to share the realistic disaster
scenarios of scientists and insurance industry
• Understand, Monitor & Manage the impact of Climate Change on catastrophes –
deliver an annual review for the whole of Europe, bringing together “best practice”
expert opinion
• “Catastrophe Risk Metrics” as the driver for risk management activities, mitigation and
adaptation
• Integrate JRC´s Monitoring (MARS for drought, EFAS for flood, EFFIS for forest fire)

10. 10
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
How to combat the protection gap
Public Private Partnership for Catastrophe Risk in Europe
Actions for Improvement?
• More „ex ante“….
• We need to complete an accurate assessment of the „to be expected“ protection gap in the
EU27 in the period 2021 – 2027
• Identify all hotspots and flashpoints in a European catastrophe risk map
• Calculate probable maximum loss and possible maximum loss per peril and country,,
allowing for the impact of Climate Change (provide open models)
• Identify the loss cost bearable by the insurance industry
• Identify the loss cost for account of states and governments, the ultimate insurers with
access to taxpayers money
• Budget a European catastrophe loss cost probability and possibility for 2021 - 2027
• Form an expert consortium from science and insurance industry to determine a „best
practice“ risk-sharing mechanism

11. 11
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Some Closing Thoughts
Conclusions for Dealing with Catastrophe Risk in Europe
What has the Corona Pandemic taught us about risk management?
• Policymakers, Scientists, Insurance Industry and Society must take „natural threats“ far more
seriously than hithero!
• Will international cooperation now flourish, or will nations withdraw within their own borders?
• Largely ignored perils for health must be taken far more seriously!
• Up until very recently there was far more concern for a computer virus than for a natural virus
• This global catastrophe puts in question which risks are or should be finding a greater political and
media attention
• Human failure becomes an act of god, carelessness becomes bad luck, and lack of
responsibility is then destiny!
• After Corona we must improve our risk management capabilities & predictive analytics
substantially
• Soft topics are often the hardest (the 2 degrees climate target)
• Shouldn´t the WHO be more important than NATO?
• The threats to our natural environment must be tackled with vehemence …. The climate crisis is well
on its way to a climate catastrophe…. visible to scientists and risk managers, and why not to all?
We as Europeans have done plenty of damage
• The funding of economic recovery in Europe must be linked to a climate-friendly
reconstruction!

12. 12
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Questions ?????