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Post Mortem:
 2012 Online
     Holiday
   Shopping
     Season!
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Post Mortem: 2012 Online
  Holiday Shopping Season
Recap of 2012; Key Themes to Emerge for 2013




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Sucharita Mulpuru
!   VP & Principal Analyst serving eBusiness &
    Channel Strategy Professionals, Forrester Inc.


Bob Egner
!   VP, Product Management, EPiServer


Mike Hill
!   EVP, Guidance

                                     #ecommholidays
Holiday 2012 Post-Mortem
Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst
February 13, 2013
Agenda


                ›  Recap of Holiday 2012
                ›  Key themes to emerge for 2013




© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   6
Agenda


                ›  Recap of Holiday 2012
                ›  Key themes to emerge for 2013




© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   7
Online sales are disproportionately
   critical for web retailers
                                                                                             15% year-
                                                                                             over-year
                                                 November-December online sales as a %
                                                     of total online sales for the year
                                                                                             growth in
                                                                                             2012 over
                                                                                               2011
                          32%                      30%                                    30%
                                                            29%        29%        29%




                          2007                    2008      2009       2010       2011    2012
             Source: Forrester Research




© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited                                                  8
Key drivers of growth were mostly in
   November
                                                     November                             December




                                   Veterans Day           Thanksgiving

                                                            Black Friday   Cyber Monday



  Source: Chase Paymentech Solutions
© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited                                              9
Mobile (including tablet) traffic grew
   overall…




    Source: Monetate

© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   10
…but mobile shopping may be maturing
on key dates
      Did you shop online with your mobile device over Thanksgiving Weekend
                 (November 24-27, 2011; November 22-25, 2012)?


                                                                      25%
   Thanksgiving Weekend
                                                                          28%
                                                                               2012
                                                                               2011
                                                                21%
             Cyber Monday                                                23% of web
                                                           18%        shoppers said they
                                                                        shopped with a
                                                                       mobile device on
                              Base: recent online buyers                Cyber Monday


Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
Furthermore, mobile commerce is still
 small       Conversions for Cyber Monday




             Mobile only
          accounts for 2.1%
           of conversions
                                                                                                             Traditional
                                                                                                             Tablet
                                                                                                             Smartphone




                0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7      8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                                                                 Time (hrs)



Source: Monetate

© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited                                                     12
Tablet usage peaks during prime time
hours         Sessions for Cyber Monday


                                                                    Tablet sessions
                                                                       overtake
                                                                     handsets as
                                                                    users get home
                Smartphone
              sessions peak as
              users reach work
                                                                                                                 Tablet
                                                                                                                 Smartphone




                0    1    2    3    4     5    6    7     8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                                                                 Time (hrs)



Source: Monetate

© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited                                                     13
Apple consumers are the bulk of mobile
browsers and buyers
                                            Apple vs. Android Devices on Cyber Monday



                                    Sessions                              Conversions




                    62%                                                    64%
                                                          38%
                                                                                        36%




Source: Monetate

© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Mobile buying tends to peak on key
dates
        For which of the following shopping activities did you use your
         mobile device this Thanksgiving Weekend/Cyber Monday?
                  Make purchases                                                    70%
                                                                                    70%

      Browse or research products                                             60%
                                                                            56%

                      Price checks                                          56%
                                                                      48%

        Read product/store reviews                              37%
                                                         28%          Thanksgiving Weekend

         General store information                       29%          Cyber Monday
                                                   20%

                Locate retail stores                      30%
                                                  17%
        Look up policy information          10%
          (e.g. returns, Customer          9%
       Use a QR or 2-d bar code to        7%
            research an item            4%

   Base: 2,621 Thanksgiving Weekend online shoppers; 1,303 Cyber Monday online shoppers
Source: Forrester-Bizrate Insights Holiday Flash Survey 2012
There don’t appear to be many new
shoppers shopping online at this time
                          Pre-Thanksgiving      Thanksgiving          Cyber Monday
                                                 Weekend


  I shopped in stores
                              66%                              72%                       77%
     less because I
     shopped online
                             65%                           70%                           76%
         instead




   I shopped online
 instead of in stores                78%                       73%                        81%
   for this purchase
 because there were                 76%                    71%
  better deals online                                                                     81%



                                               2011        2012



Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
Shoppers may be showing signs of
promotional fatigue, especially pre-holiday
   Which of the following best characterizes your feelings about online deals, promotions, and
                                 specials around the holidays?
                                                     Thanksgiving
                               Pre-Thanksgiving                             Cyber Monday
                                                      Weekend

 Deals are so frequently
 offered that it is easy to        6%                    6%                       5%
always buy with a sale or                16%              7%                      5%
        promotion

    Taking advantage of
     deals is even more                  15%                    15%                      16%
    important to me now                    19%                 13%                      15%
   than in previous years


  I love deals! The more,                      23%                    23%                    23%
         the merrier                     15%                         22%                     24%


 I will only buy if I have a              17%                        21%                     22%
  deal, sale or promotion               12%                         20%                     21%

                                                      2011          2012

Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
Email still dominates during the holidays
               How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]?
                            Pre-Thanksgiving                    Thanksgiving
                                                                                             Cyber Monday)
                                                                 Weekend

I visited the retail site    I visited the retail site
                                              43%                               44%
                                                                 I visited the retail site              41%
        directly                     directly 44%                              44%
                                                                         directly                       39%
   Via email from the           Via email 37%
                                          from the                         39%
                                                                    Via email from the                       44%
        retailer                          37%
                                     retailer                              39%
                                                                         retailer                            46%
      Through search             Through search
                               11%                              10% Through search            9%
         engines               11% engines                      10%    engines                8%
    Someone told me             Someone told me
                               10%                              11%Someone told me            11%
       about it                9% about it                      10% about it                  9%

           Other email        9%        Other email         7%              Other email      7%
                              8%                            9%                               8%
   Deals or shopping          Deals or shopping
                             6%                             6%      Deals or shopping        6%
        website              6% website                     7%           website             6%
      Retailer's social      4%    Retailer's social       3%          Retailer's social     4%
         presence            4%       presence             3%             presence           5%

                                                         2011         2012
Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
Is Cyber Monday obsolete? Not yet
Promotions were lackluster




               “[Decide.com] looked at more than 500
           doorbusters advertised in Black Friday circulars
           by big-box and department stores …and found
            that nearly one-third of the products had been
                    sold at lower prices this year.”
Staples.com Cyber Monday
        2011               2012
Williams-Sonoma’s Cyber Monday
        2011               2012
Kohs.com Cyber Monday
       2011             2012
Shipping clubs are growing as well
 “Are you a member of a shipping club or program (i.e.
   Amazon Prime, Shoprunner or Williams-Sonoma                      “How does your membership in a shipping club or
                    Reserve)?”                                         program affect your shopping frequency?”


                                                                I shop more (or plan to
                                                                  shop more) with the
                                          14%                       retailer(s) whose                            66%
                         12%                                      shipping club I have
                                                                          joined
          9%
                                                                The shipping club has
                                                                  not changed my
                                                               shopping behavior with
                                                                                                        31%
                                                                     that retailer


                                                                 I shop less with the
        2010             2011            2012                  retailer after joining the      3%
                                                                     shipping club



                                                                             N: 809 shipping club members

Source: Bizrate/Forrester Online Retail Holiday Study, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
Email continues to be a big driver of
   holiday traffic
                         How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]?
                                                Pre-Thanksgiving                       Thanksgiving
                                                                                                                   Cyber Monday
                                                                                        Weekend
          I visited the retail site                I visited the retail site
                                                                    43%                I visited the retail site
                                                                                                      44%                      41%
                  directly                                 directly 44%                              44%
                                                                                               directly                       39%
              Via email from the                          Via email 37% the
                                                                    from                   Via email from the
                                                                                                   39%                            44%
                    retailer                                        37%
                                                               retailer                            39%
                                                                                                 retailer                          46%
                 Through search                          Through search
                                                       11%                            10% Through search           9%
                     engines                          11% engines                     10%         engines          8%
              Someone told me                           Someone told me
                                                      10%                             11% Someone told me            11%
                    about it                          9%    about it                  10%        about it           9%

                         Other email                 8%         Other email           7%          Other email      7%
                                                     8%                                9%                          8%
               Deals or shopping                   6%Deals or shopping            6%        Deals or shopping      6%
                    website                        6%     website                 7%             website           6%
                 Retailer's social                4% Retailer's social           3%           Retailer's social    4%
                    presence                      4%      presence               3%              presence          5%


                                                                               2011          2012

     Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012


© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited                                                                                  25
Agenda


                ›  Recap of Holiday 2012
                ›  Key themes to emerge for 2013




© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   26
Theme 1: Showrooming
                 Population with                                  Shoppers (within last 6                     Price shoppers
                  smartphones                                           months)
                                                                                                               Not sure
                                                                                                                  1%
                                                               Non-buyers
                                                                   15%



Other (including no-              Smartphone                                                     Non-“Showroom          “Showroomers”
device consumers)                   owners                                                            ers”                    52%
           54%                          46%                                                            47%
                                                                             Recent buyers
                                                                                  85%




        Base: 2,025 online consumers                        Base: 942 smartphone owners         Base: 804 recent buyers with smartphones
       Q: Which of the following types                     Q: Have you purchased products         Q: In the last 6 months, have you used
       of mobile devices do you own                         in a physical store in the last 6   your smartphone to find or research prices
                 and use?                                              months?                   online for products you were considering
                                                                                                 buying while shopping in a physical store
                                                                                                  (e.g. shopping mall, grocery store, car
   Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012                                                   dealership)?



 © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited                                                      27                        27
Many consumers say they will use their
     phones more to research prices in the
     future                                                                Intent among men 18-34
                                                                                    Less
                                 Future “showrooming”
                                        intention                                   4%

                                            Less
                                                                         About the same      More
                                             4%
                                                                              49%            47%

                                                          More
                                                          37%
                         About the same
                                 59%                                       Base: 187 male smartphone owners
                                                                             Intent among women 18-34
                                                                                     Less
                                                                                        2%
                                                                                             More
                                                                                             31%
                                                                       About the same
                                 Base: 942 smartphone owners               67%
                     Q: Do you think you will use your smartphone to
                        research prices more or less in the future?


  Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012
                                                                            Base: 209 female smartphone owners
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Those shoppers who don’t research on
     mobile devices often just don’t think
     about it (yet)
            Q: Which of the following best describes why you have not used your smartphone
                                       to research prices in stores?
                  I have no interest in using my smartphone for
                                   this purpose                                                     32%

                                                  I haven't thought about it                        31%
                    I don't usually buy anything that needs to be
                                      researched
                                                                                         16%

                   The web connection in stores is usually poor                     6%

                                                          I don't have time    3%

              I didn't know you could research prices in stores                3%

                                                                      Other         7%

                                  Base: 390 smartphone owners who have not researched prices in stores

  Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
                                                                                               29
Consumers research prices on their
     mobile devices for many categories
                   Q: In which categories were the products you were researching or checking prices
                   on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply.

             Consumer electronics (e.g.                                                 Home improvement (e.g.
                                                                         39%                                                           23%
               digital cameras, TVs)                                                        lumber, tools)
            Grocery (e.g. food, diapers,                                                    Sporting goods (e.g.
                                                                        37%                                                           20%
                    grooming)                                                                   equipment)
                    Apparel, accessories,                                                Music/videos (including
                                                                     33%                                                          19%
                         footwear                                                                digital)
         Housewares/small appliances                                                         Furniture (including
                                                                    31%                                                           18%
           (e.g. vacuum cleaners,                                                               mattresses)

                        Movie/event tickets                         30%                                      Toys                17%

                                Video games                        27%                    Large appliances (e.g.
                                                                                                                                14%
                                                                                              dishwashers)

               Books (including eBooks)                           25%                            Office products                14%
           Cars or auto parts (including                                                Baby care (e.g. strollers,
                                                                  25%                                                      11%
                      tires)                                                               feeding bottles)
         Computers (including tablets)
                                                                 24%                                       Other           9%
              and peripherals
                                                    Base: 415 smartphone owners who recently researched prices in stores

  Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
                                                                                                                     30
Consumers who research prices on
     mobile devices find it easy
            Q: Which of the following statements describe how you feel about researching prices online
                          while shopping in a physical store. Please select all that apply.

                               It is easy to research prices online in a
                                             physical store                                     47%

                          I type the name of the product in a search
                                   engine when researching                                  40%

                            I often research prices online when I am
                                   shopping in a physical store                           38%

                          I find it easiest to scan a barcode or other
                                     image to compare prices                            33%

                   The Internet connectivity in stores is often bad
                   so I cannot research prices as much as I'd like               16%
                                         to
                           It is difficult to research prices online in a
                                             physical store                 6%

                                         Base: 415 smartphone owners that researched prices in stores

  Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
                                                                                                  31
Switching retailers or channels is common
   after researching prices on mobile devices
        Q: In general, which of the following best
                                                                                  I purchased the product/
     describes the prices that you have found online                              brand I was researching
      when researching on your smartphone while                                   in the store where I was                40%
              shopping in a physical store?                                               shopping
                          Higher than in                                          I purchased the product/
                             a store                                                brand online from the
                                                                                    website of the retailer         18%
                                                   8%                               where I was shopping
                                                                                  I purchased the product/
                                                          Same as in the store
                                                                                  brand I was researching           18%
          Lower than in a store                                                     later at another store
                                                                 37%                                                    Switchers
                         55%                                                      I purchased the product/
                                                                                 brand online from another          15%
                                                                                          website


                                                                                     I did not purchase the
                                                                                             product               9%

                                         Base: 415 smartphone owners that researched prices in stores



© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
                                                                                                              32
Search engines and Amazon typically
     are the most common destinations for
     in-store mobile price research
                    Q: Which of the following sources do you use to research prices on your
                   smartphone when shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply.

                                    A general search engine (e.g. Google)                                  69%

                                                                     Amazon.com                          57%
       The site or app of the retailers where I am shopping at
                                                                                                   41%
                               the time
       A price comparison or barcode scanning app (e.g. Red
                                                                                                  35%
                                Laser)
                                                      Another retailer's site or app         27%

                                                                         ebay.com           21%

                                                                             Other     2%
                                         Base: 415 smartphone owners that researched prices in stores

  Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
                                                                                                          33
Price matches and personalized offers
     are opportunities retain shoppers
               Q: Which of the following might have persuaded you to have purchased the product/brand
               you were researching on a smartphone while shopping in a physical store from the store or
                                     from its website. Please select all that apply. .

                                                   A price match for the item                      57%

                  A personalized coupon to purchase at that time
                                   in the store                                             36%

                     Loyalty points for purchasing from the retailer                   30%

                                    Better customer service in the store              29%

                  The opportunity to have the item shipped to my
                                   home directly                                 23%

                                            A more generous return policy       19%


                           Base: 153 smartphone owners who purchased products at other stores or
                                                    did not purchase

  Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Mobile development questions still
   persist             General Consensus

                                                          Most large retailers have them, but most
                 Importance of
                                                          mobile traffic doesn’t come from apps; ROI
                    apps?
                                                          is unclear

               Focus on Apple                             All Apple devices are losing share but
                  devices?                                shoppers do tend to skew heavier toward
                                                          these devices for now

                    Responsive                            These sites don’t necessarily look great, but
                     design?                              they are functional and deliver bang for the
                                                          buck
                  Tablet focus?                           Most mobile traffic and sales are coming
                     How?                                 from tablets, but few companies have tablet
                                                          optimized presence. Some are designed
                                                          for “tablet first” with features that translate
                                                          to desktops

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Trend 2: Synergies with stores
    Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers
                      Responding)                                     Examples/Definitions

                                                           Checkout optimization, alternative payments,
    Site conversion                             31              user experience, testing, analytics
                                                          investments, product detail page enhancement

  Mobile and tablet                        26                Mobile-optimized sites, mobile analytics,
                                                              mobile traffic and conversion growth

       Site redesign                16                     Core site “look and feel” overhaul, responsive
                                                                          design changes

International growth                16                                  Shipments abroad

                                                             Cross-channel analytics, ship from store,
Multichannel efforts               15                                    endless aisle


  Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research
It won’t be in same-day delivery




© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   37
Even though many companies are trying




© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   38
Supporting stores is critical
© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited   40
More retailers now have complex
              distribution algorithms that optimize for
              shipment time, cost and inventory turns
                             Distribution centers                     Stores                         3rd party partners
                                                                                                         Drop shop
                                Most common                     Pick from store
                                                                                                       Marketplaces
Item source
Fulfillment destination




                             Home                    Your stores                Other stores                  DCs

                          Most common               Ship-to-store              John Lewis-Waitrose           Best Buy
                                                    In-store pickup
Trend 3: More and more personalization
                                              FSIs
                                       Media mix models




    Stores                                                       Loyalty program
    Transaction data                                                Customer analysis
    Geographic location
    Promotion redemption




                                                                      Email
      Website                                                        Open rates
                                                                     Click-throughs
    Clickstream data
    Categories browsed
    Promotion redemption




                           Mobile                         Social
                       Geographic location                 Number of fans
                       Checkin information                 Fan activity
                       App downloads                       Fan comments
                                                           Offer redemptions
Different companies will find different
approaches to work best
Thank you

Sucharita Mulpuru
smulpuru@forrester.com
@smulpuru
Combining e-Commerce and Digital Marketing
Bob Egner, VP Product Management
Introducing EPiServer



              Digital
                             E-Commerce
            Marketing




Improving customer experience by combing e-Commerce and
                digital marketing software

                                                   #ecommholidays
Introducing EPiServer



                      Customer
                     Experience




Improving customer experience by combing e-Commerce and
                digital marketing software

                                                   #ecommholidays
Successful B2C and B2B sites



            over   4700       customers


                    30
                   in     countries


                       630
       through a network of           partners




                                                 #ecommholidays
User Journey
                Get
                                                     Get
              trusted           Get
                                                  converted
                              engaged                            Get
                                                                 care
  Get
visible
                                                Get
                                              fulfilled

                                 Get
               Get
                              in touch
             loyalty

    Customer experience across the user journey is a new source of
                      competitive advantage.

                                                              #ecommholidays
User Journey
                 Get
            Digital Marketing                         Get
               trusted             Get
                                                   converted
                                engaged                             Get
              Product Information Management                        care
  Get
visible
                            Merchandising        Get
                                               fulfilled
                                               E-Commerce
                                   Get
               Get
                                in touch
             loyalty                               Order Management

    Customer experience across the user journey is a new source of
                                                       Customer Care
                      competitive advantage.

                                                           #ecommholidays
Consider replatforming to EPiServer when…


•  Customer experience is important
•  Need agility to experiment and adjust experiences
•  Mobile, social, or email are important touch points
•  Sharing / enriching product catalog information is
   important across channels
•  Visitor behavior is a desired driver of experience
•  High performance e-commerce throughput is needed




                                                  #ecommholidays
About Guidance

Our Team & Expertise
!   Founded	
  in	
  1993	
  (20th!)	
  
!   100	
  professionals	
  with	
  offshore	
  teams	
  in	
  Buenos	
  Aires,	
  
    Romania,	
  Singapore	
  &	
  India	
  
!   300+ Web applications
!   20+ year track record
!   $3B+ yearly in online sales transactions
!   Industry leading solutions
!   Technology - agnostic
!   Requirements driven	
  
About Guidance

                                What We Do




Commerce             Web                Creative &                               Hosting
                                                           Mobile & Social
                  Development           UI Design                              & Managed
                                                                                Services




       Strategy           Integration                SEO               Analytics
Sample Clients
Sample Clients

The Seamless User Experience

!   Mobile	
  &	
  Connected	
  Devices	
  
!   Mobile	
  Traffic	
  &	
  M-­‐Commerce	
  Growth	
  
!   Email
!   Holiday Promotions
Trends Review

The Seamless User Experience


   !   Mobile	
  &	
  Connected	
  Devices	
  
   !   Mobile	
  Traffic	
  &	
  M-­‐Commerce	
  Growth	
  
   !   Email
   !   Holiday Promotions
Mobile Commerce

Growth
Build for the Device

Multiple Screens
Build For The Device

Metrics

!   Reten%on	
  
!   Opera%ng	
  System/Pla4orm	
  
!   Visitors Flow
!   In Page Analytcs
Omni-Channel

             Promotions &             Location-based
                 coupons              services



    Mobile
                                                  Self-scanning &
 commerce
                                                  self-checkout




                                                  Mobile shopping
Payments
                                                  lists




            In-store                        Social commerce
           research



                            Loyalty
Omni-Channel
                                          Store location
                       Promotions &
                           coupons


                                                                      Online commerce
              Mobile
           commerce



                                                                             Self-scanning &
                                                                             self-checkout

Offline commerce




                                                                             Mobile shopping lists


        Payments


                                                                       Mail order

           In-store research


                                Loyalty                    Social Commerce
Summary

Communicate Via Your Customers
         Preference
Q&A



      #ecommholidays
THANK YOU
!   Sucharita Mulpuru
    smulpuru@forrester.com
    @smulpuru

!   Bob Egner
    bob.egner@episerver.com
    @episerverus

!   Mike Hill
    mhill@guidance.com
    @guidance
                              #ecommholidays

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2012 Holiday eCommerce Results & Trends Review & 2013 Recommended Investments

  • 1. Post Mortem: 2012 Online Holiday Shopping Season! Call 1-855-299-5224! Access 700-034-600#! @episerverus @guidance #ecommholidays
  • 2. Post Mortem: 2012 Online Holiday Shopping Season Recap of 2012; Key Themes to Emerge for 2013 @episerverus @guidance #ecommholidays
  • 3. HOUSEKEEPING !   Follow us on Twitter: @episerverus @guidance !   Submit questions via chat window #ecommholidays
  • 4. Sucharita Mulpuru !   VP & Principal Analyst serving eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals, Forrester Inc. Bob Egner !   VP, Product Management, EPiServer Mike Hill !   EVP, Guidance #ecommholidays
  • 5. Holiday 2012 Post-Mortem Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst February 13, 2013
  • 6. Agenda ›  Recap of Holiday 2012 ›  Key themes to emerge for 2013 © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 6
  • 7. Agenda ›  Recap of Holiday 2012 ›  Key themes to emerge for 2013 © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 7
  • 8. Online sales are disproportionately critical for web retailers 15% year- over-year November-December online sales as a % of total online sales for the year growth in 2012 over 2011 32% 30% 30% 29% 29% 29% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Forrester Research © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 8
  • 9. Key drivers of growth were mostly in November November December Veterans Day Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday Source: Chase Paymentech Solutions © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 9
  • 10. Mobile (including tablet) traffic grew overall… Source: Monetate © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 10
  • 11. …but mobile shopping may be maturing on key dates Did you shop online with your mobile device over Thanksgiving Weekend (November 24-27, 2011; November 22-25, 2012)? 25% Thanksgiving Weekend 28% 2012 2011 21% Cyber Monday 23% of web 18% shoppers said they shopped with a mobile device on Base: recent online buyers Cyber Monday Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
  • 12. Furthermore, mobile commerce is still small Conversions for Cyber Monday Mobile only accounts for 2.1% of conversions Traditional Tablet Smartphone 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Time (hrs) Source: Monetate © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 12
  • 13. Tablet usage peaks during prime time hours Sessions for Cyber Monday Tablet sessions overtake handsets as users get home Smartphone sessions peak as users reach work Tablet Smartphone 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Time (hrs) Source: Monetate © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 13
  • 14. Apple consumers are the bulk of mobile browsers and buyers Apple vs. Android Devices on Cyber Monday Sessions Conversions 62% 64% 38% 36% Source: Monetate © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 15. Mobile buying tends to peak on key dates For which of the following shopping activities did you use your mobile device this Thanksgiving Weekend/Cyber Monday? Make purchases 70% 70% Browse or research products 60% 56% Price checks 56% 48% Read product/store reviews 37% 28% Thanksgiving Weekend General store information 29% Cyber Monday 20% Locate retail stores 30% 17% Look up policy information 10% (e.g. returns, Customer 9% Use a QR or 2-d bar code to 7% research an item 4% Base: 2,621 Thanksgiving Weekend online shoppers; 1,303 Cyber Monday online shoppers Source: Forrester-Bizrate Insights Holiday Flash Survey 2012
  • 16. There don’t appear to be many new shoppers shopping online at this time Pre-Thanksgiving Thanksgiving Cyber Monday Weekend I shopped in stores 66% 72% 77% less because I shopped online 65% 70% 76% instead I shopped online instead of in stores 78% 73% 81% for this purchase because there were 76% 71% better deals online 81% 2011 2012 Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
  • 17. Shoppers may be showing signs of promotional fatigue, especially pre-holiday Which of the following best characterizes your feelings about online deals, promotions, and specials around the holidays? Thanksgiving Pre-Thanksgiving Cyber Monday Weekend Deals are so frequently offered that it is easy to 6% 6% 5% always buy with a sale or 16% 7% 5% promotion Taking advantage of deals is even more 15% 15% 16% important to me now 19% 13% 15% than in previous years I love deals! The more, 23% 23% 23% the merrier 15% 22% 24% I will only buy if I have a 17% 21% 22% deal, sale or promotion 12% 20% 21% 2011 2012 Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
  • 18. Email still dominates during the holidays How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]? Pre-Thanksgiving Thanksgiving Cyber Monday) Weekend I visited the retail site I visited the retail site 43% 44% I visited the retail site 41% directly directly 44% 44% directly 39% Via email from the Via email 37% from the 39% Via email from the 44% retailer 37% retailer 39% retailer 46% Through search Through search 11% 10% Through search 9% engines 11% engines 10% engines 8% Someone told me Someone told me 10% 11%Someone told me 11% about it 9% about it 10% about it 9% Other email 9% Other email 7% Other email 7% 8% 9% 8% Deals or shopping Deals or shopping 6% 6% Deals or shopping 6% website 6% website 7% website 6% Retailer's social 4% Retailer's social 3% Retailer's social 4% presence 4% presence 3% presence 5% 2011 2012 Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
  • 19. Is Cyber Monday obsolete? Not yet
  • 20. Promotions were lackluster “[Decide.com] looked at more than 500 doorbusters advertised in Black Friday circulars by big-box and department stores …and found that nearly one-third of the products had been sold at lower prices this year.”
  • 24. Shipping clubs are growing as well “Are you a member of a shipping club or program (i.e. Amazon Prime, Shoprunner or Williams-Sonoma “How does your membership in a shipping club or Reserve)?” program affect your shopping frequency?” I shop more (or plan to shop more) with the 14% retailer(s) whose 66% 12% shipping club I have joined 9% The shipping club has not changed my shopping behavior with 31% that retailer I shop less with the 2010 2011 2012 retailer after joining the 3% shipping club N: 809 shipping club members Source: Bizrate/Forrester Online Retail Holiday Study, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
  • 25. Email continues to be a big driver of holiday traffic How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]? Pre-Thanksgiving Thanksgiving Cyber Monday Weekend I visited the retail site I visited the retail site 43% I visited the retail site 44% 41% directly directly 44% 44% directly 39% Via email from the Via email 37% the from Via email from the 39% 44% retailer 37% retailer 39% retailer 46% Through search Through search 11% 10% Through search 9% engines 11% engines 10% engines 8% Someone told me Someone told me 10% 11% Someone told me 11% about it 9% about it 10% about it 9% Other email 8% Other email 7% Other email 7% 8% 9% 8% Deals or shopping 6%Deals or shopping 6% Deals or shopping 6% website 6% website 7% website 6% Retailer's social 4% Retailer's social 3% Retailer's social 4% presence 4% presence 3% presence 5% 2011 2012 Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012 © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 25
  • 26. Agenda ›  Recap of Holiday 2012 ›  Key themes to emerge for 2013 © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26
  • 27. Theme 1: Showrooming Population with Shoppers (within last 6 Price shoppers smartphones months) Not sure 1% Non-buyers 15% Other (including no- Smartphone Non-“Showroom “Showroomers” device consumers) owners ers” 52% 54% 46% 47% Recent buyers 85% Base: 2,025 online consumers Base: 942 smartphone owners Base: 804 recent buyers with smartphones Q: Which of the following types Q: Have you purchased products Q: In the last 6 months, have you used of mobile devices do you own in a physical store in the last 6 your smartphone to find or research prices and use? months? online for products you were considering buying while shopping in a physical store (e.g. shopping mall, grocery store, car Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 dealership)? © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 27 27
  • 28. Many consumers say they will use their phones more to research prices in the future Intent among men 18-34 Less Future “showrooming” intention 4% Less About the same More 4% 49% 47% More 37% About the same 59% Base: 187 male smartphone owners Intent among women 18-34 Less 2% More 31% About the same Base: 942 smartphone owners 67% Q: Do you think you will use your smartphone to research prices more or less in the future? Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 Base: 209 female smartphone owners © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 29. Those shoppers who don’t research on mobile devices often just don’t think about it (yet) Q: Which of the following best describes why you have not used your smartphone to research prices in stores? I have no interest in using my smartphone for this purpose 32% I haven't thought about it 31% I don't usually buy anything that needs to be researched 16% The web connection in stores is usually poor 6% I don't have time 3% I didn't know you could research prices in stores 3% Other 7% Base: 390 smartphone owners who have not researched prices in stores Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 29
  • 30. Consumers research prices on their mobile devices for many categories Q: In which categories were the products you were researching or checking prices on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply. Consumer electronics (e.g. Home improvement (e.g. 39% 23% digital cameras, TVs) lumber, tools) Grocery (e.g. food, diapers, Sporting goods (e.g. 37% 20% grooming) equipment) Apparel, accessories, Music/videos (including 33% 19% footwear digital) Housewares/small appliances Furniture (including 31% 18% (e.g. vacuum cleaners, mattresses) Movie/event tickets 30% Toys 17% Video games 27% Large appliances (e.g. 14% dishwashers) Books (including eBooks) 25% Office products 14% Cars or auto parts (including Baby care (e.g. strollers, 25% 11% tires) feeding bottles) Computers (including tablets) 24% Other 9% and peripherals Base: 415 smartphone owners who recently researched prices in stores Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 30
  • 31. Consumers who research prices on mobile devices find it easy Q: Which of the following statements describe how you feel about researching prices online while shopping in a physical store. Please select all that apply. It is easy to research prices online in a physical store 47% I type the name of the product in a search engine when researching 40% I often research prices online when I am shopping in a physical store 38% I find it easiest to scan a barcode or other image to compare prices 33% The Internet connectivity in stores is often bad so I cannot research prices as much as I'd like 16% to It is difficult to research prices online in a physical store 6% Base: 415 smartphone owners that researched prices in stores Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 31
  • 32. Switching retailers or channels is common after researching prices on mobile devices Q: In general, which of the following best I purchased the product/ describes the prices that you have found online brand I was researching when researching on your smartphone while in the store where I was 40% shopping in a physical store? shopping Higher than in I purchased the product/ a store brand online from the website of the retailer 18% 8% where I was shopping I purchased the product/ Same as in the store brand I was researching 18% Lower than in a store later at another store 37% Switchers 55% I purchased the product/ brand online from another 15% website I did not purchase the product 9% Base: 415 smartphone owners that researched prices in stores © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 32
  • 33. Search engines and Amazon typically are the most common destinations for in-store mobile price research Q: Which of the following sources do you use to research prices on your smartphone when shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply. A general search engine (e.g. Google) 69% Amazon.com 57% The site or app of the retailers where I am shopping at 41% the time A price comparison or barcode scanning app (e.g. Red 35% Laser) Another retailer's site or app 27% ebay.com 21% Other 2% Base: 415 smartphone owners that researched prices in stores Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 33
  • 34. Price matches and personalized offers are opportunities retain shoppers Q: Which of the following might have persuaded you to have purchased the product/brand you were researching on a smartphone while shopping in a physical store from the store or from its website. Please select all that apply. . A price match for the item 57% A personalized coupon to purchase at that time in the store 36% Loyalty points for purchasing from the retailer 30% Better customer service in the store 29% The opportunity to have the item shipped to my home directly 23% A more generous return policy 19% Base: 153 smartphone owners who purchased products at other stores or did not purchase Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 35. Mobile development questions still persist General Consensus Most large retailers have them, but most Importance of mobile traffic doesn’t come from apps; ROI apps? is unclear Focus on Apple All Apple devices are losing share but devices? shoppers do tend to skew heavier toward these devices for now Responsive These sites don’t necessarily look great, but design? they are functional and deliver bang for the buck Tablet focus? Most mobile traffic and sales are coming How? from tablets, but few companies have tablet optimized presence. Some are designed for “tablet first” with features that translate to desktops © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  • 36. Trend 2: Synergies with stores Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding) Examples/Definitions Checkout optimization, alternative payments, Site conversion 31 user experience, testing, analytics investments, product detail page enhancement Mobile and tablet 26 Mobile-optimized sites, mobile analytics, mobile traffic and conversion growth Site redesign 16 Core site “look and feel” overhaul, responsive design changes International growth 16 Shipments abroad Cross-channel analytics, ship from store, Multichannel efforts 15 endless aisle Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research
  • 37. It won’t be in same-day delivery © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 37
  • 38. Even though many companies are trying © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 38
  • 40. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 40
  • 41. More retailers now have complex distribution algorithms that optimize for shipment time, cost and inventory turns Distribution centers Stores 3rd party partners Drop shop Most common Pick from store Marketplaces Item source Fulfillment destination Home Your stores Other stores DCs Most common Ship-to-store John Lewis-Waitrose Best Buy In-store pickup
  • 42. Trend 3: More and more personalization FSIs Media mix models Stores Loyalty program Transaction data Customer analysis Geographic location Promotion redemption Email Website Open rates Click-throughs Clickstream data Categories browsed Promotion redemption Mobile Social Geographic location Number of fans Checkin information Fan activity App downloads Fan comments Offer redemptions
  • 43. Different companies will find different approaches to work best
  • 45. Combining e-Commerce and Digital Marketing Bob Egner, VP Product Management
  • 46. Introducing EPiServer Digital E-Commerce Marketing Improving customer experience by combing e-Commerce and digital marketing software #ecommholidays
  • 47. Introducing EPiServer Customer Experience Improving customer experience by combing e-Commerce and digital marketing software #ecommholidays
  • 48. Successful B2C and B2B sites over 4700 customers 30 in countries 630 through a network of partners #ecommholidays
  • 49. User Journey Get Get trusted Get converted engaged Get care Get visible Get fulfilled Get Get in touch loyalty Customer experience across the user journey is a new source of competitive advantage. #ecommholidays
  • 50. User Journey Get Digital Marketing Get trusted Get converted engaged Get Product Information Management care Get visible Merchandising Get fulfilled E-Commerce Get Get in touch loyalty Order Management Customer experience across the user journey is a new source of Customer Care competitive advantage. #ecommholidays
  • 51. Consider replatforming to EPiServer when… •  Customer experience is important •  Need agility to experiment and adjust experiences •  Mobile, social, or email are important touch points •  Sharing / enriching product catalog information is important across channels •  Visitor behavior is a desired driver of experience •  High performance e-commerce throughput is needed #ecommholidays
  • 52. About Guidance Our Team & Expertise !   Founded  in  1993  (20th!)   !   100  professionals  with  offshore  teams  in  Buenos  Aires,   Romania,  Singapore  &  India   !   300+ Web applications !   20+ year track record !   $3B+ yearly in online sales transactions !   Industry leading solutions !   Technology - agnostic !   Requirements driven  
  • 53. About Guidance What We Do Commerce Web Creative & Hosting Mobile & Social Development UI Design & Managed Services Strategy Integration SEO Analytics
  • 55. Sample Clients The Seamless User Experience !   Mobile  &  Connected  Devices   !   Mobile  Traffic  &  M-­‐Commerce  Growth   !   Email !   Holiday Promotions
  • 56. Trends Review The Seamless User Experience !   Mobile  &  Connected  Devices   !   Mobile  Traffic  &  M-­‐Commerce  Growth   !   Email !   Holiday Promotions
  • 58. Build for the Device Multiple Screens
  • 59. Build For The Device Metrics !   Reten%on   !   Opera%ng  System/Pla4orm   !   Visitors Flow !   In Page Analytcs
  • 60. Omni-Channel Promotions & Location-based coupons services Mobile Self-scanning & commerce self-checkout Mobile shopping Payments lists In-store Social commerce research Loyalty
  • 61. Omni-Channel Store location Promotions & coupons Online commerce Mobile commerce Self-scanning & self-checkout Offline commerce Mobile shopping lists Payments Mail order In-store research Loyalty Social Commerce
  • 62. Summary Communicate Via Your Customers Preference
  • 63. Q&A #ecommholidays
  • 64. THANK YOU ! Sucharita Mulpuru smulpuru@forrester.com @smulpuru !   Bob Egner bob.egner@episerver.com @episerverus !   Mike Hill mhill@guidance.com @guidance #ecommholidays