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Global insights audio-slides-11-09-11
1. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 9th, 2011
ITALIAN BOMBS
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The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
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2. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 9th, 2011
EUROPE BLOWING UP
FRENCH-GERMAN SPREAD ITALIAN-GERMAN SPREAD
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
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3. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 9th, 2011
ITALIAN BOND COLLAPSE
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4. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 9th, 2011
ITS WORSE THAN YOU THINK
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5. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 9th, 2011
FLEEING GREECE
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The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
6. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 9th, 2011
ITALIAN BOMBS
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Editor's Notes
GREECEGeorge Papandreou, Greece's prime minister, cleared the way for his resignation by scheduling a meeting with opposition leader Antonis Samaras and the president to overcome sticking points over the leadership and the duration of a unity government. A seven point plan for the new government was thrashed out at a cabinet meeting, including a deadline for parliament to ratify the eurozone bail-out before the end of December. Greece's finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, will lead the Greek delegation to Brussels, where he is expected to outline the national consensus platform on implementing the bail-out deal. Olli Rehn, the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, told Reuters that they needed a "convincing" report from Mr Venizelos. Calling on Greece to establish a national unity government, he added that Athens' European partners "faced last week a breach of confidence by Greece which meant that Greece took itself on a course that would lead it outside the euro zone. "We do not want that but we must be prepared for every scenario, including that one, for the sake of safeguarding financial stability and saving the euro," he said.
LCH Clearnet Boosts Deposit Required for Trading Italian Government BondsThe so-called deposit factor charged for Italian bonds due in seven-to-10 years will be raised to 11.65 percent, LCH Clearnet SA said in a document on its website dated yesterday. That compares with a charge of 6.65 percent announced in an Oct. 7 document. The additional charges will be applied from close- of-day positions today, LCH said.Major investment banks calculate the “margin call” to be around 4-5 billion EUR as of tomorrow.
GREEK BANK RUNAccording to just released data by the Bank of Greece, the September collapse in gross deposits from €188.7 billion to €183.2 billion was the largest ever, and took the total to an amount last seen in June 2007. Indicatively Greek deposits peaked at €237.8 billion in September 2009. Said otherwise, in addition to being massively undercapitalized, banks cash in the form of deposit liabilities has plunged 23% from its all time highs. Look for this number to continue dropping month after month as more and more Greeks move their cash offshore. Additionally, the ECB announced that financing to Greek banks in September was €77.8 billion while Greek reliance on the "temporary" Emergency Liquidity Assistance program hit €26.6 billion according to Bloomberg. With every additional deposit outflow, expect ever more money to be needed to keep the Greek sham of a banking system afloat, and more and more Germans getting very, very angry.A SHAM – PUBLIC MONEY PUMPING Greece is about to get another installment of 8b Euro which has been coming more or less on a quarterly installment basis. Greece is running a primary deficit of approximately 6b Euro. So that is 1.5 billion per quarter. So about 19 cents of every Euro of bailout money makes it way to fund Greece's current overspending.Greek banks hold about 75 billion of debt and other Greek entities hold about 25 billion, bringing the total to 100 billion. Assuming about 350 billion in total debt that means about 23 cents go to Greek entities as debt service. That number is a bit misleading, as much of this has been pledged to the ECB for funding, so although it supports the Greek banks, it also goes to the ECB. The ECB holds 55 billion of Greek bonds directly. So 18 cents of every Euro of the bailout goes to the ECB. The "market" and "bilateral loans" total about 175 billion from what we could find. This is a bit lower than the 205 billion the IIF is talking about, but seems in the right ballpark. So about 40 cents of every Euro of the bailout is used to service debt held by non Greek banks and financial institutions.We didn't look at the specific maturities, and just used averages. To the extent Greek pension funds for example, hold longer dated maturities, less of the money is really going to them, but for now lets assume that each group holds a similarly balanced portfolio. We also haven't figured out about the 90 billion of derivative exposures Greece has and whether any bailout money is being used to pay on those. In the end less than 19 cents of the bailout are going to allow Greece to continue its overspending. About 23 cents goes to Greek institutions, though at this point, all of that is held by the ECB, so it is not fully benefiting Greece.18 cents are going to the ECB directly and 40 cents are going to banks and insurance companies outside of Greece. So at least 58 cents of every bailout Euro is going outside of Greece, and depending on how you treat the repo agreements, that number could easily be 70 cents.THE PATIENT IS DEAD!!!!! IT IS THE HOST THE PARAPSITES ARE LIVING OFF!!!
