Presidential elections-2015 will direct all political processes in Ukraine for next 2 years. As Ukraine moves toward presidential elections in 2015, the media is still a long way from providing good quality objective, balanced and varied information to help voters make an informed choice.

1. Current Political Situation
in Ukraine, 2013
Mykhailo Minakov
Foundation for Good Politics
Washington, DC, April 4, 2013

2. Macropolitical Tendencies, 2008-2013
further enforcement of central government and decline of local
self-administration
growth of popular support for a ‘strong hand’ President in 2009 –
2010
consolidation of power after victory of Victor Yanukovych in 2010
dominance of the Party of Regions and associated business
groups
return to pre-2006 Constitution with presidential rule
creation of the ‘vertical of power’ (parliament, courts, and
local governments are under control of one party)
authoritarian tendencies with relatively strong political pluralism
Events Analysis, Foundation for Good Politics, 2010-2013

3. Recent Political Processes, 2012–2013
parliamentary elections 2012
creation of new government in December 2012 –
January 2013
contradictory economic development
growth of socio-economic protest movement

4. Parliamentary Elections 2012
half of the seats in the 450-seat parliament are
determined by proportional representation by a
country-wide party list, with a minimum of 5% of the
vote needed to receive seats; the other half is decided
by races in individual districts
campaign : summer – fall 2012
vote day : October 28, 2012

5. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Campaign - Access of parties to TV channels, October-12
56% : Party of Regions
19% : all opposition parties
Доступ до медіа: вибори 2012 / За ред. Н.В.Костенко та В.Ф.Іванова. – К.: АУП, ЦВП, 2012. – 72 с.

6. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Campaign - Political Advertisement, October-12
Доступ до медіа: вибори 2012 / За ред. Н.В.Костенко та В.Ф.Іванова. –
К.: АУП, ЦВП, 2012. – 72 с.

7. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Campaign - Anti-Advertisement, October-12
Доступ до медіа: вибори 2012 / За ред. Н.В.Костенко та В.Ф.Іванова. –
К.: АУП, ЦВП, 2012. – 72 с.

8. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Results
the Party of Regions won 30% of the vote for the
party list seats
the Batkivshchyna party, which was founded by the
jailed Yulia Tymoshenko, won 25.5%
the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform
(UDAR), led by Vitalii Klichko, won 14%
the Communist Party of Ukraine won 13.2%
the extreme nationalist party Freedom won 10.4%

9. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Results in Multi Mandate District

10. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Results in in Single Mandate District

11. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
Results - Seats in the Verkhovna Rada
unstable majority:
the Party of Regions : 208 members (short of the 226
needed for a majority)
the Communist Party : 32 members
independent deputies (claimed to be associated with the
Party of Regions) : 27 members
the opposition:
the Batkivshchyna party : 99 seats (4 dropped out)
UDAR : 42 seats
Freedom Union : 24 seats

12. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :
International Assessment of Election
A statement by an Election Observation Team (OSCE, the OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly, the Council of Europe, the NATO
Parliamentary Assembly, and the European Parliament) stated:
the election was characterized by “the lack of a level playing
field, caused primarily by the abuse of administrative
resources, lack of transparency of campaign and party
financing, and lack of balanced media coverage”
the election campaign “constituted a step backwards
compared with recent national elections”
the observers assessed the voting on election day and the
initial counting of ballots “mostly positively”
however, the report added that tabulation of vote totals was
assessed negatively due to a lack of transparency
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVATION, Ukraine — Parliamentary Elections, 28
October 2012 (http://www.osce.org/odihr/96675)

13. Economic Development
Ukraine entered into a recession in the second half of 2012, bringing growth in real
GDP for the whole year to just 0.2 percent
Weak economic performance resulted in a significant budget shortfall in the second half
of 2012:
actual revenue of the central budget was UAH 33 billion (2.5 percent GDP) lower
than initial budget plan because both real GDP growth and inflation were lower
than the forecast on which the budget was based
Trend in early 2013: industrial production and consumer prices continue to decline
By end 2012,
current account deficit widened to 8.4 percent GDP and foreign reserves position
of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) weakened
gross reserves fell to USD 24.5 billion (2.7 months of imports)
gross external debt increased by 7 percent during 2012 and reached USD 135
billion while banking sector share continued to decline due to deleveraging of
European banks
New financial support with IMF and EU under question
Ukraine Economic Update, World Bank, April 2, 2013

14. New Government after elections
more ministerial seats for representatives of the pro-President group
(colloquially known as “the Family”)
Prime Minister Mykola Azarov remained at his post
Prime Minister Azarov’s role has been significantly diminished by the
appointment of Serhiy Arbuzov, a representative of the Family, as first
deputy prime minister
The Family has strengthened its control over the cash flows and force
ministries and agencies, which are of key importance before the
presidential elections in 2015
the Akhmetov’s group has maintained control over certain economic
sectors
The so-called RUE group (led by Dmytro Firtash) lost its former
influence, but retained its influence in the energy sector
most of business groups from the Party of Regions are getting marginalized;
area of possible future conflicts within ruling party

15. У 2012 році ми зафіксували 3636 протестних подій, що є рекордною кількістю
протестів за останні три роки. Порівняно з 2011 роком (2277 подій) відбулося зрос-
тання на 60%. У чому причини такого зростання? Які вимоги активніше виводили
Growth of Socio-Economic Protest Movement
людей на вулиці? Які організації, партії та групи стояли за сплеском протестів? Про-
ти кого і за що він був спрямований?
Dynamics of the public protests, 2010 – 2012
Графік 1.1. Динаміка кількості протестних подій
mostly nonviolent
main issues connected
with the national socio-
economic issues (28%)
and local issues (21%)
main protests in Kiev,
Lviv, Odessa, Mykolaiv,
Crimea and Donetsk
Protest event analysis: Протести,
перемоги і репресії в Україні:
результати моніторингу 2012 р. /
За ред. В. Іщенка. – К.: Центр
дослідження суспільства, 2013.
Рекорд кількості протестних подій було побито 5 місяців поспіль: у березні,
травні, червні, липні, жовтні. Перший пік ще в березні (317 протестних подій) пе-
ревищив попередні рекорди під час Податкового майдану (292) та кампанії «чор-

16. Growth of Socio-Economic Protest Movement
Parties-led street protests, 2010 – 2012
Protest event analysis: Протести, перемоги і репресії в Україні: результати
моніторингу 2012 р. / За ред. В. Іщенка. – К.: Центр дослідження суспільства,
2013.

17. Future Political Development
EU - Ukraine Association Agreement
Preparations to Presidential elections in 2015

18. EU-Ukraine Association Agreement
does not contain a perspective of future membership
includes a free trade accord and will allow for deeper cooperation
between the EU and Ukraine in a wide variety of fields
Meeting of Ukraine’s President and EU Commissionaires on Feb
25, 2013:
EU officials have postponed the signing of the agreement due
to the Ukrainian leadership’s failure to show sufficient
commitment to European values in democracy and rule of law
May 2013 as a critical moment for sign off
close monitoring of political developments has already
identified problems:
"The High Representative Catherine Ashton and Commissioner Štefan Füle are … deeply concerned by recent legal proceedings leading to possible
annulment of parliamentary mandates of two members of the Parliament on contested legal grounds. They also pay particular attention to the situation
related to the case of MP Serhiy Vlasenko in the light of a recent petition to the High Administrative Court to possibly revoke his parliamentary mandate…
In light of these developments, they reiterate the need to take early steps to improve the electoral legislation of Ukraine as recommended by the
OSCE/ODIHR final report of 3 January 2013, by giving consideration to an Election Code.” (http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-
2014/fule/headlines/news/2013/03/20130305_1_en.htm)

19. Preparations to Presidential Elections
presidential elections will direct all political processes in
Ukraine for next 2 years
keeping opposition disunited, with several leaders
imprisoned
possible Constitutional Reform
possible referendum re bi-cameral parliament and change in
President’s election method
special attention of political players to media holdings and
their owners

20. Preparations to Presidential Elections
Case of the Inter TV Channel
• change among owners, Firtash and Liovochkin group
• dismissal of the Civic Advisory Group that oversaw the
balance in the news coverage
• change in the news coverage
• Case of the UNIAN agency
• biased coverage of opposition activity

21. Preparations to Presidential Elections
Unprecedented competition for digital frequencies licensing: the majority of
regional companies lost an opportunity to broadcast in digital after 2015,
when analog television will be withdrawn :
TVi was denied, and 5 kanal received only one of the two frequencies it requested
the opposition’s Crimean TRC Chernomorskaya lost its license ; Rivne-1, TRC
Chernivtsi, and TV-4 in Ternopil face the same problem
out of the 68 private regional broadcasters across Ukraine, only one received a
digital license
out of the three mighty regional broadcasters in Lviv in operation for years, none
received a digital license
State and municipal companies received licenses with obvious preference and
free of any obstacles, violating the principle of equality.
National Council on Licensing introduced new players that have never
broadcasted in the market, and granted them licenses for years ahead. Loyalty
to the ruling party was the necessary pre-condition—a notion articulated rather
openly.
Media Sustainability Index, IREX, 2012

22. Future Political Development
EU - Ukraine Association Agreement : May 2013 is a
decisive moment
Preparations to Presidential elections in 2015 : summer
and fall 2013 will show priorities of Constitutional and
Political Reform