My presentation in the opening session of the Nordic Electric Vehicle Summit 2019 https://nordicevs.no/. I discuss what is driving the increase in global emissions in the last decades, and what we have to do to get to 1.5C and 2C, consistent with the Paris Agreement.

1. Can we keep “well below 2°C”?
Can electric transport save the planet?
Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway)
Nordic EV Summit (16/03/2019)

2. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
Where have we been, where are we going?

3. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
Where have we been?

4. CO2 emission have a 50% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2050, around 15GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100
Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
What does 1.5°C look like?

5. CO2 emission have a 25% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2075, around 10GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100
Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
What does 2°C look like?

6. Emission trends to 2018
Where have we been?

7. Global fossil CO2 emissions are 63% higher than in 1990, despite efforts on climate policy
Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

8. Oil and gas are growing strongly, and it is the ups and downs of coal leading to changes in global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement

9. Renewable energy is growing exponentially, but has so far been too slow to offset the growth in fossil energy use
This figure shows “primary energy” using the BP substitution method (non-fossil sources are scaled up by an assumed fossil efficiency of 0.38)
Source: BP 2018; Figueres et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Energy use by source (excluding bioenergy)

10. How do we get to 1.5°C?

11. In additional to rapid short-term reductions, it is likely large-scale carbon dioxide removal (negative emissions) needed!
1Gt CO2 equals 1 billion tonnes CO2
Typical pathways to 1.5°C

12. Driving it home…

13. Many scenarios show the transport sector is still significant at the end of the century
Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)
CO2 Emissions in a 1.5°C world

14. Peters_Glen
cicero.oslo.no
cicerosenterforklimaforskning
glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no
Glen Peters