Acknowledging Support and Providing Gratitude for Guidance Received During a Study

Acknowledgments
It gives me great pleasure to acknowledge the guidance and support I have received during the
study. At the beginning, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks and profound sense of
gratitude to Dr. Nigussie Hargeweyn for his constructive comments, guidance and suggestions
from the beginning to the end of the study, without whom this work was difficult to come to an
end.
I would also like to thank my parents and family for the support they provided me throughout my
entire life especially for my mother W/o Azalech Endalew, My father Ato Fekadu Akalu and my
brother Desalgn Fekadu.
A Very special thank goes out to Tilay Bitew, Belayneh Bogale, Dagnew Fekadu, Girma Eshite,
Alebachew Biadigie, Abebe Birhanu and Adeiam Bazezew for their moral and material support
during study.
I would like to extend my thanks to workers of Bahir Dar City service who assisted me in
providing valuable information during data collection.
Finally, it is great interest of me to thank my friends whom they helped me during the study.

Acronyms
ANRS

Amhara National Regional State

BCS

Bahir Dar City Service

BCSO

Bahir Dar City Service Office

BDIDP

Bahir Dar Integrated Development Plan

BoFED

Bureau of Finance and Economic Development

BMA

Bureau of Metropolitan Administration

BSZ

Bahir Dar Special Zone

BWUD Bureau of Works and Urban Development
CSA

Central Statistical Authority

DA

Development Agent

E.C

Ethiopian Calendar

EMA

Ethiopian Mapping Authority

ERDAS Earth Resources Data Analysis System
ESA

Ecological Society of America

FAO

Food and Agricultural Organization

FGD

Focused Group Discussion

FUPI

Federal Urban Planning Institute

GCPs

Ground Control Points

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GIS

Geographic Information System

GNP

Gross National Product

GPS

Global Positioning System

ha

hectare

ILO

International Labor Organization

N

North

NGO

Non Government Organization

UN

United Nations

UTM

Universal Transfer Mercator

y

Year

Table of contents

Page Number

Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ i
Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................... iii
List of tables.................................................................................................................................. ix
List of figures ................................................................................................................................. x
Chapter One .................................................................................................................................. 1
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 BACKGROUND AND STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
1.2 HYPOTHESIS
1.3 OBJECTIVES
1.3.1 General objective
1.3.2 Specific objectives
Chapter Two .................................................................................................................................. 5
2. Literature review ...................................................................................................................... 5
2.1 THE CONCEPT OF LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE
2.1.1 Land use land cover
2.1.2 Land use land cover change
2.2 PROXIMATE VERSUS UNDERLYING CAUSES OF LAND USE /LAND COVER CHANGE
2.3 CONSEQUENCES OF LAND USE/ LAND COVER CHANGE
2.3.1. Impact of land use land /cover change in forests dynamics
2.3.2 Impact of land use/ land cover change on biodiversity
2.3.3 Impact of land use/ land cover change in cultivated land
2.4. LAND USE/ LAND COVER CHANGES IN ETHIOPIA
2.5. URBANIZATION
2.5.1 History of urbanization

2.5.1.1 Urbanization in Ethiopia
2.5.2. Demographic trends of urbanization
2.5.3. Views of urbanization
2.5.4 Causes and consequences of urban expansion
2.5.4.1 Causes of urban expansion
2.5.4.2 Consequences of urban expansion
2.5.4.2.1. The effects of urban expansion on farmlands
2.5.4.2.2 The effects of urban expansion on environment
2.5.5. Urban expansion policies
3. Materials and methods ........................................................................................................... 26
3.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA
3.1.1 Physical
3.1 .1.1 Location
3.1.1.2 Topography
3.1.1.3 Climate
3.1.1.3.1 Temperature
3.1.1.3.2 Rainfall
3.1.1.4 Soil
3.1.2 Demographic characteristics
3.1.2.1 Population size and trends in Bahir Dar town
3.1.2.2 Ethnic composition
3.1.3 Socio-economic characteristics
3.1.3.1 Economic activities in Bahir Dar town
3.1.3.2 Physical and social infrastructures
3.1.4 Historical development of Bahir Dar town
3.2 MATERIALS
3.3 DATA ACQUISITION AND METHODS OF ANALYSIS
3.3.1 Land use/ land cover change study
3.3.1.1 Data acquisition and classification

3.3.1.2 Method of data analysis
3.3.2 Socio-economic and environmental study
3.3.2.1 Data acquisition
3.3.2.1.1 Interviewing key –informants in the town
3.3.2.1.2 Focus group discussions
3.3.2.1.3 Questionnaire
3.3.2.1.3.1 Data gathering procedures from dispossessed farmer households
3.3.2.1.3.2 Variables used for questionnaire
3.3.2.2 Methods of data analysis
Chapter Four ............................................................................................................................... 46
4. Results and discussion ............................................................................................................ 46
4.1 THE AERIAL EXTENT AND DIRECTION OF URBAN EXPANSION
4.2 LAND USE/ LAND COVER CHANGE ANALYSIS
4.2.1 Land use /land cover change as result of horizontal expansion
4.2.1.1 Land use /land cover change from 1957 -1984
4.2.2 Land use/ land cover change as a result of intensification
4.2.2.1 Land use/ land cover intensification from 1957 to 1994
4.3 CAUSES OF URBAN EXPANSION
4.3.1 Population growth
4.3.2 Increment for housing demand
4.3.3 Urban development policy
4.4 LAND CONSUMPTION RATE AND ABSORPTION COEFFICIENT OF BAHIR DAR TOWN
4.5 FUTURE EXPANSION TRENDS OF THE TOWN AND PREDICTED LAND LOSS
4.6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ANALYSES
4.6.1 Response of urban dwellers on urban expansion
4.6.1.1 Impacts of urban expansion on access to social services

4.6.1.2. Impact of urban expansion on environment
4.6.2 Response of farmer households affected by urban expansion
4.6.2.1 Compensation payment, utilization and farmers attitude
4.6.2.1.1 Procedures for compensation payment
4.6.2.1.2 Utilization of compensation
4.6.2.1.3. Farmer households’ attitude on compensation paid by income
4.6.2.2 Farmer households’ response on adaptation to urban way of life
4.6.2.3 Consequences of urban expansion on surrounding rural communities
4.6.2.3.1 Impacts of urban expansion on land holding size and permanent trees
4.6.2.3.2 Impact of urban expansion on livestock
4.6.2.3.3 Impacts of urban expansion on access to social services
4.6.2.3.4 Impact of urban expansion on occupation
4.6.2.3.5 Impact of urban expansion on environment
4.6.2.3.6 Impact of urban expansion on social affairs
4.6.3 Attitude of non-affected rural communities on urban expansion
4.6.4 Impact of urban expansion on affected and non-affected farmer households
Chapter Five ................................................................................................................................ 87
5. Conclusion and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 87
5.1 CONCLUSION
5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
References .................................................................................................................................... 90
Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 98

List of tables
Table 1: Population size and growth rate of Bahir Dar town ....................................................... 31
Table 2: Major ethnic groups of Bahir Dar town .......................................................................... 32
Table 3: Tourists visited Bahir Dar and amount of money collected in birr ................................ 33
Table 4: Manufacturing industries in Bahir Dar town .................................................................. 34
Table 5: Distribution of sample farmer households ..................................................................... 43
Table 6: Area and average annual expansion rate of Bahir Dar town from 1957 to 2009 ........... 47
Table 7: Land use cover distribution and annual rate of change from 1957 to 1994 ................... 54
Table 8: Intensification of land use land cover change [1957-1994 and 1984-1994] .................. 60
Table 9: Land Consumption Rate (LCR) and Land Absorption Coefficient (LAC) .................... 64
Table 10: Population growth estimates and projected urban expansion from 2007 to 2024 ........ 67
Table 11: Benefits promised and given for farmers who dislocated from their land ................... 72
Table 12: Farmers’ utilization of money compensation ............................................................... 75
Table 13: Farmers’ response on compensation paid by income ................................................... 76
Table 14: Types of properties before and after land expropriation .............................................. 78
Table 15: Livestock population before and after land expropriation ........................................... 79
Table 16: Household heads benefited social services by kebele .................................................. 81
Table 17 : Farmer household’s occupation after land expropriation ............................................ 82
Table 18: Farmers response on impact of urban expansion.......................................................... 86

List of figures
Figure 1: Map of the study area .................................................................................................... 27
Figure 2: Temperature data for 48 years (1961-2008) .................................................................. 29
Figure 3: Rainfall data for 48 years (1961-2008) ......................................................................... 30
Figure 4: Flow chart that shows procedures followed during data collection and analysis ......... 41
Figure 5: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town (1957-2009) .......................................... 48
Figure 6: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town/Superimposed/ [1957-2009] ................. 49
Figure 7: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1957 ................................................................................ 52
Figure 10: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1957, [1984 and 1994] clipped by 1957 boundary ... 57
Figure 11: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1984 and 1994, clipped by 1984 boundary ............... 59
Figure 12: Members of focused group discussion with researcher............................................... 73
Figure 13: Solid wastes disposed at Gordima land fill site in Bahir Dar town ............................ 84

Chapter One
1. Introduction
1.1 Background and statement of problem
Land cover describes vegetation and man-made features, whereas land use is characterized by
the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce,
change or maintain it (FAO 2005 as cited in FAO, 2008). Information on land use land cover is
essential for the selection, planning and implementation of land use schemes to meet the
increasing demands for basic human needs and welfare. Moreover, land use and land cover
change has become a central component in current strategies for managing natural resources and
monitoring environmental changes (Zubair, 2006). There are some factors that influence land use
land cover change, these factors are driving forces. Driving forces are generally subdivided into
two broad categories: proximate causes and underlying causes (Bedru, 2006). Proximate causes
are the activities and actions which directly affect land use. Underlying causes are factors that
trigger the proximate causes, including demographic pressure, economic policy, technological
development, institutional and cultural factors (Geist and Lambin, 2002). Nowadays urbanization
has also been contributing for land use land cover change.
Urbanization is the outcome of social, economic and political developments that lead to urban
concentration and growth of large cities, changes in land use, and transformation from rural to
metropolitan patterns of organization and governance (Satterthwaite, 2005). At the beginning of
the twentieth century, just 16 cities in the world, the vast majority in advanced industrial
countries contained a million people or more. Today, almost 400 cities contain a million people

or more, and about seventy percent of them are found in the developing world. By 2007, for the
first time in human history, more people in the world will be living in cities and towns than will
be living in rural areas and by 2017 the developing world is likely to have become more urban in
character than rural (Cohen, 2005). Another study also indicates that, population size that lives in
towns and cities is expected to rise to almost five billion by 2030 (Sherbinin and Martine, 2007).
There is variation of urbanization in developing and developed countries by percentage of
population live in cities and town, and in the way in which urbanization is occurring. For
instance, African urbanization starts with the introduction of foreign religions [Christianity and
Islam], slave trade, colonialism, and neo-colonialism (Achankeng, 2003). Even these factors
have brought sub-regional and national variations within Africa. North African sub-region is
most urbanized and has an average urban population of 54 percent. The other sub-regions are as
follows: West Africa (40 %), Southern Africa (39 %), Central Africa (36 %), Western Indian
Ocean Islands (36 %), and East Africa, the least (23 %).
Urbanization in Ethiopia is a recent phenomenon that came into being around the end of 19th and
the beginning of 20th century although there were some braked indications before this time
backwards (FUPI,2006). According to three successive census years, the urban population of
Ethiopia was 12.21% (1984), 13.69 % (1994) and 16.17 % (2007) of the total population of the
country. Between the first two successive population and housing census results demonstrate that
national urban population size increased by 1.48% [more than two million people]. However,
comparison of the 1994 census results with 2007 shows that the urban population of the country
increased by 2.48% [more than four million persons] over the last 13 years (CSA, 1984, 1994
and 2007). Currently, many cities in Ethiopia manifest rapid urban expansion. Bahir Dar is one

of the rapidly growing cities in the country. Early before foundation of the surrounding area was
occupied by dense forests and inhabited by various wild animal species although at far side
peripheries there were wooden walled grass roofed huts. The land occupied by settlers estimated
not

more

than

three

hectares

and

the

population

was

3,000

–

5,000

(http://campus.iss.nl/~group6/501607984? was Read=1). Beginning from that time as a rural
village onwards, it has developed into one of the current largest cities of the country. This rapid
expansion of the town has its own benefits and problems. Among problems, the major once are
occupation of fertile agricultural lands, social instability and environmental pollution. Study
shows that rapid urbanization in the poorest countries is straining the capacity of cities to provide
basic amenities, degrading the quality of life, and impoverishing the environment (Sherbinin and
Martine, 2007).
To detect the land consumption rate, land use and land cover change and; to predict some
possible changes that may occur in the future urban planners and policy makers must have basic
tools, Geographic Information System and Remotely Sensed Data, for planning. In addition to,
data collection at the field by manual delineation is too much time consuming and not accurate
unlike that of remotely sensed data. The collection of remotely sensed data facilitates the
synoptic analysis of Earth system, function, patterning, and change at local, regional and global
scales over time (Wilkie and Finn, 1996). This makes planning very simple and the most reliable.
Many researchers have conducted research on land use land cover changes by using Geographic
Information Systems and Remote Sensing Data in Ethiopia. Among studies conducted on land
use/ land cover changes, Belay (2002) conducted study on land cover land use changes in
Derekolli catchment of the South Wollo. Tesfay (2007) also tried to analyze land use-land cover

change and its impact on carrying capacity and food security in Southern Wollo. Moreover,
Belayneh (2007) evaluated effects of land use land cover on selected soil physico chemical
properties in southern Gondor. However, emphasis was not yet given on land use and land cover
change due to urbanization in the country at large and in the study area in particular. Hence,
conducting on land use land cover change study helps to know the magnitude and extent of
change as well as associated problems of a growing and expanding city at the expense of very
productive arable land.

1.2 Hypothesis
Physical expansion of Bihar Dar town has brought significant socio-economic and environmental
consequences on the livelihood of the surrounding local people.

1.3 Objectives
1.3.1 General objective
To evaluate the extent of urbanization and its impact on the surrounding rural communities of
Bahir Bar town

1.3.2 Specific objectives
o To determine the extent and direction of the expansion
o To identify factors responsible for urban expansion
o To generate data on land consumption rate and adsorption coefficient for the town
o To predict the future expansion trends of the town
o To evaluate socio-economic and environmental consequences of urbanization on the
surrounding rural dwellers

Chapter Two
2. Literature review
2.1 The concept of land use land cover change
2.1.1 Land use land cover
A global agreement on the definition and classification of both land use and land cover does not
exist (FAO, 1997). It is also stated that, there is no one ideal classification of land use and land
cover, and it is unlikely that one could ever be developed (Anderson et al., 1976). As a result
many classification systems and innumerable map legends exist, and maps and statistics from
different countries, and in many cases even from the same country, are incompatible with each
other. However, the land cover is defined by the attributes of the earth’s land surface and
immediate subsurface, including [biota, soil, topography, surface and groundwater, and human
structures] whereas land use is more explained by the purposes for which humans exploit the
land cover (Lambin et al., 2003).

2.1.2 Land use land cover change
Today, virtually no land surface remains untouched in some way by humankind and about 50
percent of the ice free surface of Earth is considered significantly modified by human action
(Turner, 2001). Land-use and land-cover change is one cornerstone of the science of global
environmental change, sustainability, and increasingly, environment and development (Turner,
2002). Shi (2008) also explained that land-use and land-cover changes are local and place
specific, and they currently become one of the most important facets of global environmental

change. Similarly, Fan et al., (2007) explained that land use and land cover change is a major
issue in global environment change, and is especially significant in rapidly developing regions in
the world.
The focus has long been on the global aspect of land cover change because data were needed as
input for carbon cycle analysis and global change modeling; today the local and regional aspects
of land-use and land-cover change are also of concern (Lambin and Geist, 2003). Moreover, it is
now well recognized, that at local, regional, and global scales, land use changes are significantly
altering land cover, perhaps at an accelerating pace (Walsh et al., 2004 ).
Knowledge about land use and land cover has become increasingly important for any country’s
plans to overcome the problems of haphazard, uncontrolled development, deteriorating
environmental quality, loss of prime agricultural lands, destruction of important wetlands, and
loss of fish and wildlife habitat (James et al., 1976). However, understanding of the causes of
land-use change has moved from simplistic representations of two or three driving forces to a
much more profound understanding that involves situation-specific interactions among a large
number of factors at different spatial and temporal scales (Lambin et al., 2003). In addition,
land-use and land-cover changes are highly varied in kind, and follow from multiple and
complex processes (Walsh et al., 2004.)

2.2 Proximate versus underlying causes of land use /land cover change
Land use change is always caused by multiple interacting factors originating from different
levels of organization of the coupled human environment systems (Lambin et al., 2003). Land
use constantly changes in response to the dynamic interaction between underlying drivers and

proximate causes (Lambin and Geist, 2003). The conceptual understanding of proximate causes
and underlying forces help to identify the causes of land-use and land-cover changes (Turner and
Meyer, 1994 as cited in Solomon, 2005).
Proximate causes of land use change constitute human activities or immediate actions that
originate from intended land use and directly affect land cover while; underlying causes are
fundamental forces that underpin the more proximate causes of land cover change (Lambin et al.,
2003). Underlying driving forces are fundamental socio-economic and political processes that
push proximate causes into immediate action on land use and land cover (Geist and Lambin,
2002). The underlying driving forces include demographic pressure, economic status,
technological and institutional factors that influence land use land cover in combination, rather
than as single causations (Turner et al., 1994).
Proximate causes generally operate at the local level (individual farms, households, or
communities) however; underlying causes may originate from the regional (districts, provinces,
or country) or even global levels, with complex interplays between levels of organization
(Lambin et al., 2003). Localized changes around the world added up to massive impacts (Fan et
al., 2007). Land-use and land-cover change induced by both human activities and natural
feedbacks have converted large proportion of the planet’s land surface (Shi, 2008). These landuse changes have important implications for future changes in the Earth’s climate and,
consequently, great implications for subsequent land use change (Agarwal et al., 2001).
It has been also reported that, historically the driving force for most land use change is a
population growth (Ramankutty et al., 2002). As number of population increases from time to
time, the exploitation of land resources also increases. This leads to change of land use and land

cover. The variations of tropical forests, temperate forests, boreal forests and tropical savanna,
and their feedbacks under current climate change are results of human induced land use land
cover changes (Shi, 2008). Consequently, this land use cover change has been recognized as an
important driver of environmental change on all spatial and temporal scales (Turner et al., 1994).
However, all impacts are not negative though, as many forms of land use and land cover changes
are associated with continuing increases in food and fiber production, in resource use efficiency,
and in wealth and well-being (Lambin et al., 2003).
Now a day’s urbanization became one of the major causes for land use land cover change. Over
the last 20 years, many urban areas have experienced dramatic growth, because of rapid
population growth, and as the world’s economy have been transformed by a combination of
rapid technological and political change (Cohen, 2005). The effect of urbanization on land use
land cover change varies mainly on development of a country. Study indicates that urban
consumption of agricultural land is partly due to the growing urban population and it is partly
due to higher land consumption by each new urban dwelling (Hofmann ,2001). Land use and
land cover in Shanghai have been greatly altered over the past three decades, as a result of the
rapid expansion of urban areas, the area of urban land increased from 159.1 km2 in 1975 to
1179.3 km2 in 2005 (Zhao et al.,2006). Similarly, the conversion of other types of land to urban
land use due to urbanization is a main type of land use and land cover change in human history
(Weng, 2001).

2.3 Consequences of land use/ land cover change
2.3.1. Impact of land use land /cover change in forests dynamics
The world’s forests cover 42 million km2 areas in tropical, temperate, and boreal lands, 30% of
the land surface (Shi, 2008). However, these world’s forests have been converted by human
activities significantly. In-migration into forested, low-population density areas is the main
demographic driver behind extensification processes, leading to initial or frontier conversion of
forest cover (Lambin and Geist, 2003). Forest area decreased from 5000–6200 million ha in 1700
to 4300–5300 million ha in 1990 (Lambin et al., 2003). Moreover, recent figures indicate that
approximately 9, 400, 000 ha forest per annum were lost during 1990–2000 (FAO, 2001).
According to EFAP (1993), only 2.7 percent of Ethiopia’s land mass is currently estimated to be
under forest cover, with a loss of 150,000 to 200,000 hectare of natural forest per annum.

2.3.2 Impact of land use/ land cover change on biodiversity
Land-use changes that alter natural-disturbance regimes or initiate new disturbances are likely to
cause changes in species, abundance and distribution, community composition, and ecosystem
function (ESA, 2000). According to Ellis (2007), when land is transformed from a primary forest
to a farm, the loss of forest species within deforested areas is immediate and complete. Similarly,
land-cover change has led to, or is leading to, significant losses in species numbers and varieties
worldwide (Turner et al., 1995).
As study conducted in America (Parmenter et al., 2003), indicates the conversion of wild lands
to rural residential and urban land uses may be detrimental to legally protected wildlife or to
economically valuable game species. Land-use and land-cover changes directly impact

biological diversity (Sala and others 2000), contribute to local and regional climate change as
well as to global climate warming (Chase and others 1999, Houghton and others 1999), and may
cause land degradation by altering ecosystem services and livelihood support systems, thereby
disrupting the socio cultural practices and institutions associated with managing those
biophysical systems (Vitousek and others 1997) as cited in (Jianchu et al., 2005). In Ethiopia, 85
percent of domestic energy consumption is derived from forest products (EFAP, 1994) and this
clearing land without selection to expand agricultural lands is the main cause of loss of
biodiversity (Girma. et al., 2002).

2.3.3 Impact of land use/ land cover change in cultivated land
The relationship between land use and soils is two dimensional i.e. land use affects soils and in
reverse soils affect land use (Kahsay, 2004). Historically, humans have increased agricultural
output mainly by bringing more land into production (Lambin et al., 2003). As a result of this,
the area of cropland has increased globally from an estimated 300–400 million ha in 1700 to
1500–1800 million ha in 1990, about 4.5 to fivefold increase in three centuries and a 50% net
increase just in the twentieth century (Lambin et al., 2003). Today, cropland conversion and,
perhaps, intensification are most rapid in the less industrialized portions of the world, while the
area of cropland has decreased in Europe (Richards, 1990). According to Turner et al. (1995), by
the end of this century, most of the world's land area will be intensively and formally managed,
and "open” lands will no longer exist. On the other hand, intensified production relies on
significant chemical and fossil fuel inputs as well as irrigation, in some cases stressing catchment
hydrology and leading to significant releases of N2O to the atmosphere (Turner, 2001).

Study conducted in Burkina Faso (Fisher et al., 2008) also shows that, increased population
growth and climate variability were perceived to have pushed a formerly sustainable practice
into a driver of land degradation. Similarly, vegetation removal for agriculture leaves soils
vulnerable to massive increases in soil erosion by wind and water, especially on steep terrain,
and when accompanied by fire (Ellis, 2007).

2.4. Land use/ land cover changes in Ethiopia
The need to conduct research on historical Land Use and Land Cover change is that by
understanding the past, it could be possible to make projections for the future (Kahsay, 2004).
Similarly, land-cover analysis provides the baseline data required for proper understanding of
how land was used in the past and what types of changes are to be expected in the future (Belay,
2002). The same study shows that, studies of land-cover changes also yield valuable information
for analysis of the environmental impacts of human activities, climate change, and other forces.
As many studies indicate that, among the land use changes occurring, the most significant
historical change in land cover has been the expansion of agricultural lands. From 1700 to the
mid 1980s, the largest land-cover change involved cropland, which increased globally by 392%
to 466%, depending on the means of estimation, or from an area roughly the size of Argentina to
that of the South American continent (Richards, 1990). Another study also indicates that, humans
have been altering land cover since pre-history through the clearance of patches of land for
agriculture and livestock (Shi, 2008).
Different studies conducted using remotely sensed data of different years, for some parts of
Ethiopia; also indicate that croplands have expanded at the expense of natural vegetation,

including forests and shrub lands (Selamyihun, 2004; Girmay, 2003; Belay, 2002; Gete and
Hurni 2001; and Solomon, 1994 as cited in Kahsay, 2004). While the study conducted by Tadele
and Förch (2007), shows that farmlands and settlements class has expanded which is mostly
associated with the decrease in forest class for the years from 1975-2004. According to Solomon
(2005), an increasing demand for cultivable land, rural settlement and farmland and grassland
was the cause for change of forest land. This study shows that, almost 42% of the forest land
was converted into cultivated land and 17.3% into farm land and settlement. Only 29.3% of the
original forest remained unchanged. Girmay (2003) in his study, in Southern Wello, reported the
decline of natural forests and grazing lands due to conversion to croplands. Similarly, Feoli et
al., (2002) also reported the expansion of bush land and evergreen vegetation with population
increases.

2.5. Urbanization
The development of economy and society needs more and more land and promotes the change
from rural region to urban region (Xiaoqing and Jianlan, 2007). Urbanization is a development
phenomenon that comes about with the development of a country's economy in general and
industrialization in particular (Tesfaye, 2007). Urbanization can be also viewed as a
characteristic of the population, as a characteristic of particular kinds of land uses and land
covers, as well as a characteristic of social and economic processes and interactions affecting
both population and land (McIntyre et al., 2000). However, social scientists, demographers
generally, but also urban policy analysts, geographers, and others generally define urbanization
in terms of population densities (Long et al., 2001). In the same study physical scientists, mainly
ecologists approach definitions of urbanization from the standpoint of the built environment.

Moreover, urban communities can be defined in any number of ways including by population
size, population density, administrative or political boundaries, or economic function (Choen,
2005). On other hand, urban communities may be defined by physical borders, population size,
geographic limits associated with administrative responsibilities or governance (Keiser et al.,
2004). According to the same study, in Botswana, urban areas are defined as agglomerations of
5,000 or more inhabitants, with the majority depending on non-agricultural activities. In
Ethiopia, however, localities of 2,000 or more people are classified as urban, and in Malawi all
townships, town planning areas, and all district centers are defined as urban. Another study
(Cohen, 2005) also shows that, in Angola, Argentina, and Ethiopia localities with 2000
inhabitants or more are considered urban, while in Benin only localities with 10,000 inhabitants
or more are classified as urban.
This indicates that, there is no global standard for the classification of urban environments. Due
to, national differences in the definition of urbanization and the dependence of those definitions
on administrative designations of political subunits have always made cross national
comparisons difficult (Long et al., 2001). However, the United Nations defines urban
populations as “localities with 20,000 or more inhabitants,” A country is said to become more
urbanized as its cities grow in number, its urban populations increase in size, and the proportion
of its population living in urban areas rises. Emily and Kedir (2009), spatially allocate urban
versus non-urban areas by creating specific thresholds following two criteria whereby locations
are categorized as urban if populations have: a population density greater than 150 people per
km2; and are located within one hour travel time from a city of at least 50,000 people.

2.5.1 History of urbanization
The natural history of urbanization has not yet been written, for only a small part of the
preliminary work has been done (Mumford, 1956). However as some studies indicate, the urban
revolution appears to have happened first from about 5500 to 3500 BC., in Mesopotamia, which
is now Iraq, southwestern Iran, and Eastern Syria (Redman, 2009). The people were called
Sumerians, who built the world’s first cities in Mesopotamia. Similar study shows that, in the
following millennia, similar changes occurred in the Indus Valley of South Asia, the Yellow
River Valley of China, and eventually in the Valley of Mexico. Moreover, in the first period
from 753–509 BC, the city of Rome developed from a village to a city (Mellor, 2009). Three
spaces [Mesopotamia, Egypt (the Nile Valley), and the Indus Valley] those are sparsely
populated, yet well watered and fertile, in a time before written history (Keita, 2009). Towns and
cities have always been the driving force behind economic growth and the birthplace of
innovations which generate major impetus for the development of technology, industry, society
and culture (Meinert and Feix, 2005). Urban development in the ancient period reached its peak
in the Roman Empire, particularly during the first through the 3rd centuries A.D (Hawley, 1964).
Egypt and Indus are river valleys, where as Mesopotamia lies between two rivers [Euphrates and
Tigris] forming a rich plain. Humans settle in these regions and domesticate plants and animals.
The domestication made possible by these riverine territories and the success of domestication,
farming and grazing, attract increasingly greater human and animal migration to these spaces. As
these populations increase, so do their needs. These needs give rise to the social and political
economic formations that characterize the ancient urban spaces and states of Mesopotamia and
the Indus and Nile valleys (Keita, 2009). According to Mumford (1956), the emergence of the

city from the village was made possible by the improvements in plant cultivation and stockbreeding that came with Neolithic culture; in particular, the cultivation of the hard grains that
could be produced in abundance and kept over from year to year without spoiling.
Starting about 6,000 years ago in various parts of the world, large towns, and eventually cities,
grew out of what were formerly agrarian village societies (Redman, 2009). In Africa, many cities
were developed as colonial administrative or trading centers rather than industrial and
commercial zones equipped to support large populations (Keiser et al., 2004). The area of the
biggest cities, before the nineteenth century, could be measured in hundreds of acres; the areas of
our new conurbations must now be measured in thousands of square miles (Mumford, 1956).
Over the last 20 years many urban areas have experienced dramatic growth, as a result of rapid
population growth and as the world’s economy have been transformed by a combination of rapid
technological and political change (Choen, 2005).

2.5.1.1 Urbanization in Ethiopia
Urbanization rates differ according to methodologies and data base utilized: the United Nations
classifies Ethiopia as 14.9% urban, while the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia reports a
16% urbanization rate (Emily and Kedir 2009). In addition, the trend of urbanization in Ethiopia
manifested different forms in different regimes. Urbanization has steadily been increasing in
Ethiopia, with two periods of significantly rapid growth. First, in 1936-1941 during the Italian
occupation of Mussolini’s fascist regime, and from 1967-1975 when the populations of urban
centers tripled. The second period of growth was from 1967-1975 when rural populations
migrated to urban centers seeking work and better living conditions (Ofcansky and Berry, 1991).
Moreover, rural-to-urban migration had been largely responsible for the rapid expansion during

the 1967-75 periods, whereas natural population growth may have been mostly responsible for
urban expansion during the 1975-84 periods (Http://countrystudies.us/ethiopia/44.htm Ethiopia).
In the same study, in 1970 there were 171 towns with populations of 2,000 to 20,000; this total
had grown to 229 by 1980.In the late 1980s, only about 11 percent of the population lived in
urban areas of Italian occupation period at least 2,000 residents(http/www:countrystudies.com/ethiopia/urbanization.html).
Solomon (1999), also explicitly stated that Ethiopia has been experiencing a rapid urban
population growth over the last three decades, with significant differentials among individual
urban areas and relatively uneven distribution among the regions. Moreover, Solomon and Rein
fried (2003), estimated the rate of Ethiopian urbanization for the year 1960, 1975, 1987 and 1997
was 4%, 7%, 10%, and 12%, respectively. This implies that a trend of urbanization was
increasing. Similarly, the three successive census results show that, the urban population of
Ethiopia was 12.21% (1984), 13.69 % (1994) and 16.17 % (2007) of the total population of the
country (CSA, 1984, 1994 and 2007).

2.5.2. Demographic trends of urbanization
Urbanization has been the dominant demographic trend in the entire world, during the last half
century (Ichimura, 2003). At mid-century, only two cities had populations over 10 million;
namely London and New York. Today there are 14 cities with populations over 10 million, 10 of
which are in developing countries (ILO, 1996). In 1950 there were only around 733 million
people living in urban areas around the world and eighty-three cities in the world that could boast
a million or more residents (Cohen, 2005). In the aggregate, cities in the developing world are
growing by an estimated 160,000 persons per day (Gizewski and Dixon, 1995). Similarly, in

Africa, which used to be known as the continent of villages, the urban population is expanding at
an average rate of almost 5% a year (Meinert and Feix, 2005).
According to UN (2008), 74 per cent of the inhabitants of more developed regions lived in urban
areas in 2007, whereas just 44 per cent of those in the less developed regions. Between 2005 and
2030, the world’s urban population is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.78 per
cent, almost twice the growth rate of the world’s total population (UN Habitat, 2006). At the
present time, some 3.2 billion people already live in towns and cities; this is expected to rise to
almost five billion by 2030 (Sherbinin and Martine, 2007). The same study shows that on the
contrary, the world’s rural population is expected to decrease by some 28 million between 2005
and 2030. Moreover, current trends predict the number of urban dwellers will keep rising,
reaching almost five billion by 2030 (UN Habitat, 2006). Another study states that, the number
of cities with a million or more inhabitants will rise to about 500 by 2030, with more than half of
these huge conurbations in Asia (Meinert and Feix, 2005). This study indicates that, two of every
three children born today in developing countries will grow up in an urban environment.
Moreover, urbanization is expected to continue rising in both the more developed and the less
developed regions so that, by 2050, urban dwellers will likely account for 86 per cent of the
population in the more developed regions and for 67 per cent of that in the less developed
regions (UN, 2008).

2.5.3. Views of urbanization
The urbanization of the developing world’s population has been viewed in different ways by
different observers. To some, it has been seen as a positive force in economic development, as
economic activity shifts out of agriculture to more remunerative activities. By this view, new

economic opportunities in urban areas attract rural workers, who gain directly and there, may
also be positive feedback effects in rural areas. It has been also stated that, urbanization has
historically been associated with declining birth rates, which reduces population pressure on land
and natural resources (Ichimura, 2003).Moreover; many cities in developing countries generate a
large share of national income. For example, Mexico City, with 14% of Mexico’s population,
accounts for 34% of its GNP. Sao Paulo, with just over 10% of Brazil’s population produces
40% of its GDP. Shanghai, with just 1.2% of China’s population, generates over 12% of China’s
GNP. Bangkok has only 10% of Thailand’s total population but contributes nearly 40% of its
GDP (Tibaijuka, 2008).
To others, urbanization has been viewed in a somewhat less positive light, a largely unwelcome
forbearer of new poverty problems. Advocates of this view often point to negative externalities
of geographically concentrated poverty and irreversibility due to various costs of migration,
which can mean that migrants to urban areas cannot easily return to their old standard of living in
rural areas (Ravallion et al., 2007). The growth of large cities, particularly in developing
countries, has been accompanied by an increase in urban poverty which tends to be concentrated
in certain social groups and in particular locations (Ichimura, 2003). According to report of UN
Habitat (2006), with one out of three city dwellers, nearly one billion people, currently living in
slums which questions the whole notion of urban sustainability. Similarly, environmental
sensitive sites such as steep hillsides, flood plains, dryland or the most polluted sites near solid
waste dumps and next to open drains and sewers are often the only places where low-income
groups can live without the fear of eviction (Ichimura, 2003). On the other hand, in the
developing world, there has been a trend toward “informalization” of the urban economy, with
increasing shares of incomes earned in unregulated employment (UN Habitat, 2006).

As some studies indicate that, paradoxically in a few developed countries the urban population
will decrease. Despite the projected increases in the level of urbanization in developed nations,
overall population decline in several countries will lead to a reduction in the number of urban
dwellers (UN, 2008). However, in terms of contribution to economic output, cities drive national
economies in the industrialized countries (Tibaijuka, 2008). In addition, in developed countries,
cities generate over 80 per cent of national economic output (UN Habitat, 2006).

2.5.4 Causes and consequences of urban expansion
2.5.4.1 Causes of urban expansion
The expansion of urban areas is determined by the interaction of three broad phenomena: the
physical constraints of geography and environment; the demand for land by the households and
firms who inhabit the city; and the policy constraints that govern land use and spatial interactions
in the city (Xiaoqing and Jianlan, 2007). Before the introduction of automobiles, employment in
urban areas was concentrated in the central core and houses were located on small lots often
within walking distance to shopping, work and other amenities. By the mid 1900s, this trend
began to change, largely due to the use of automobiles and the development of related
infrastructure (Hofmann, 2001). Since then, urban dwellers started to live away from the central
core and relied on their automobiles for many daily activities. This new urban form is dominated
by single detached dwellings, which consume more land than other dwelling types such as
apartments and townhouses (Hofmann, 2001). On another hand, people are likely to be earning
an income and, in creating some wealth, contribute to rural economies by sending vital
remittances to family members (Ellis and Harris, 2004). Even though in many African countries

the urban areas offer few jobs for the youth, they are often attracted there by the amenities of
urban life (Tarver, 1996), consequently cause urban expansion.

Another study shows that, urban expansion is caused by a number of different factors including
rural–urban migration, natural population increase, and annexation (Cohen, 2005). Rural-urban
migration is still a determining factor, and a potentially menacing one, in large areas of the
developing world (ILO, 1996). According to Ward (1998), during the early decades of the
Mexico City’s growth, when the demand from industry was high, migration flows accounted for
around 60 per cent of the population expansion, with the remainder the result of natural increase.
Another study that supports migration as a cause for urban expansion states that, there are strong
rural-urban economically driven migrations with people seeking education and job opportunities
outside subsistence farming (Keiser et al., 2004). In addition, the major reasons for increasing
urban population are rural to urban migration, including international migration to a lesser
extent, and the re-classification or expansion of existing city boundaries to include populations
that were hitherto classified as being resident outside the city limits (Ichimura, 2003). High rates
of overall population growth, together with significant rural–urban migration, have contributed
to the rapid and unplanned expansion of low-income settlements on the outskirts of many large
cities, which has occurred without a concomitant expansion of public services and facilities
(Cohen, 2005).

Natural population increase and migration are significant factors in the growth of cities in the
developing countries (Tarver, 1996). In many countries, natural increase accounts for 60 per cent
or more of urban population growth (UN, 2008). Similarly study also indicates that, about 60%

of urban population growth worldwide is caused by natural increase, with migration accounting
for only 25% of growth in Africa and 34% in Latin America (Simms, 2008).

2.5.4.2 Consequences of urban expansion
2.5.4.2.1. The effects of urban expansion on farmlands
The quantity of dependable agricultural land that is available for agriculture has been declining
in recent decades, due to the consumption of agricultural land for urban uses and other nonagricultural uses (Hofmann, 2001). This rapid loss of agricultural lands is prevalent throughout
the world (Mason, 2010) as a result of urban expansion. For instance, Canada’s cities and towns
expanded steadily between 1971 and 1996, consuming more than12 thousand square kilometers
in this 25-year period (Hofmann, 2001). This urban consumption of agricultural land is partly
due to the growing urban population and it is partly due to higher land consumption by each new
urban dwelling. According to study conducted in Puerto Rico, agricultural censuses show that
rapid losses of agricultural lands have occurred since 1950, with the highest rate of change
occurring between 1964 and 1974 (López, 2001) due to urban expansion. This loss of potential
agricultural lands to irreversible nonagricultural uses reduces its capacity for the future. The
surface area of built up districts in the cities more than doubled between 1990 and 2002,and
about 6.36 million ha of farming had reverted to other forms of land use since the first land
resource

survey,

leading

to

a

net

cultivated

land

loss

of

4.11

million

ha

(http://www.mtt.fi/met/pdf/articles/met68_p313-327.pdf). It is also true in Ethiopia, the cities of
Debre Zeit and Nazareth also illustrate the desolation created by urban expansion: on each side
of the main highway, rows of ugly and disorganized buildings are rising up to replace hectare
after hectare of fertile agricultural land (Sahlu, 2004).

As study conducted in North America the residential expansion allowed in the unconstrained
development scenario increases the built-up area by 29%, agriculture decreases from 18.1% of
the study area to 3.9 % (Guzy et al., 2008). As a consequence of the loss of large areas of
cropland due to their conversion to urban uses, several countries have gone from being largely
self-sufficient to net grain importers. In a period of 44 years 1950–1994 Japan lost more than
half of its cropland which contributed to greater dependence on grain imports 70% in 1985, 25%
in 1950 ( López, 2001). Even for the future many countries will face shortage of arable land to
feed their people. For example, by comparing the 2030 urban envelope to the 1995 cultivated
land, it was estimated that more than 37,000 acres of the existing cultivated land in the Tricounty
area is at risk from potential urban conversion (Allen and Lu, 2000). According to study made in
Egypt by Stover et al. (1986) ,actions that can be taken to offset the crop loss due to urban
expansion include : replacing lost production through imports and increasing yields; with annual
losses of 30,000 to 40,000 feddans/year (1 feddan = .42 hectares).

2.5.4.2.2 The effects of urban expansion on environment
Expansion of human settlements and accompanying activities, especially the rapid urbanization
occurring in the developing countries, play an important role in global land use and cover
change, causing changes to ecological processes on a local and global scale (Zhang, 2008).
Similarly another study also states that, urbanization does not have only local environmental
impacts but also large so-called ‘ecological footprints’ beyond their immediate vicinity
(Ichimura, 2003). Urban expansion continues to accelerate and herewith changes profoundly the
Earth surface and results in many environmental consequences, such as affecting ecological
sustainability in the rapid urbanized area of China (Tao et al., 2004). In addition, conversion of
agricultural land and forest, as well as reclaiming of wetlands, for urban uses and infrastructure,

is associated with widespread removal of vegetation to support urban ecosystem and put
additional pressure on nearby areas that may be even more ecologically sensitive
(Ichimura,2003).
By covering with buildings, roads and other impervious surfaces (Weng, 2001), urban areas
generally have higher solar radiation absorption, and a greater thermal capacity and conductivity,
so that heat is stored during the day and released by night. Therefore, urban areas tend to
experience a relatively higher temperature compared with the surrounding rural areas. Poor periurban areas are also characterized by lack of sanitation and the consequent pollution of rivers and
streams (Torres, 2007). Solid waste disposal systems are also generally lacking in low income
country cities, which contribute to the spread of infectious diseases (Sherbinin and Martine,
2007). Moreover, high and rapid levels of urbanization have led to major problems such as
traffic congestion resulting from poor infrastructure, contributing to environmental pollution and
urban decay (Simms, 2008).

2.5.5. Urban expansion policies
There is no consensus among scholars, policy makers or urban residents themselves about
whether further development should be restricted or encouraged. According to Angel et al.
(2005), there are three groups of policy areas that have a bearing on shaping urban expansion:
1. Policies that affect rural-urban (international) migration, both directly and indirectly;
2. Policies that affect or seek to affect the distribution of urban populations among cities; and
3. Policies that affect or seek to affect the process of urban development in individual cities
and metropolitan areas

Reducing or even reversing the flow of rural-urban migrants has been the most common policy
pursued by Governments wishing to change the spatial distribution of the population. Strategies
used to retain the population in rural areas include: establishing internal migration controls,
undertaking land redistribution, creating regional development zones and, more recently,
promoting the economic diversification and competitiveness in rural areas through the
mobilization of investment and the improvement of rural livelihoods (United Nations Population
Division, 2008). In the same study, the second most common policy aims at reducing migrant
flows to large cities. Among developed countries, the proportion of those with policies to reduce
flows to large cities declined from 55 per cent in 1975 to 26 per cent in 1996 and has since
rebounded to reach 39 percent in 2007. According to Ichimura (2003), a variety of options in
terms of policy responses and tools to cope effectively with the urbanization transition has been
proposed and discussed for several decades; these options may be categorized in the following
four strategic steps.
a. National planning to control urbanization to manageable levels
b. Regional / Urban planning to guide urbanization to manageable situation
c. Intra-urban management to cope with urbanization problems
d. Participation, Partnership and Governance
Although there are encouraging initiatives being taken by key players in various cities and
countries, we do not yet have a consolidated approach to an inclusive urban policy and
governance (Iwamoto, 2006). With regard to Ethiopia there are no published documents that
dictate about urban expansion policies. However, as stated in unpublished document of BDIDP ,

currently urban development policy of Ethiopia is attempting to implement two extremely
different strategies, the first is the “growth pole approach” and the second is the “agro-politian
approach” (FUPI 2006). The former one encourages the growth and development of the largest
cities while the latter one encourages the development of small market centers.

Chapter Three
3. Materials and methods
3.1 Description of the study area
3.1.1 Physical
3.1 .1.1 Location
Bahir Dar, the capital of Amhara National Regional State, is located in the North Western part of
Ethiopia (Figure, 1). Besides, it also serves as the administrative center for both West Gojam
Zone and Bahir Dar Special Zone. It is located at 11038' N latitude and 37010' E longitude with
an average elevation of 1801 m above mean sea level (BSZ Information Office, 2009; BCS;
2009). It is 565 kilometers away from Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia. It is accessible
from Addis Ababa via both Motta and Bure high ways. The route through Motta is 80 kms less
from the total distance covering 565 kms through Bure from Addis Ababa. The two high ways
share more than 237 kms in common before the road to Motta departs west direction, after seven
kms from Dejen (FUPI, 2006).

Bahir Dar town and surrounding kebelles

Figure 1: Map of the study area
Source: BoFED Amhara Region, 2009

3.1.1.2 Topography
Topographically, the town lies on a flat level of unnoticeable slope change except small raise in
eastern and western peripheries. FUPI (2006) clearly stated that the altitude of Bahir Dar town
ranges from 1,786 meter above sea level near Lake Tana shore to 1,886 meter above sea level at
Bezawit hill with 100m altitude difference. The existing built up areas of the town almost lies
within an elevation not more than 1820 meter above sea level (Gebre, 2009). Flat land
topography ranging from 0 to 2 % slope gradient better describes the landscape of the town
though some spots and/or pockets of land have a gradient that reach up to 20% slope (FUPI,
2006). There is also scattered, depressed terrain, which forms swamps here and there inside the
built-up area of the town. With regard to drainage system of the Bahir Dar, Lake Tana and Abay
River are found in its vicinity that determines the flow of water system in and around the city.
The town has been affected by flood problems because of its extreme flatness and soil condition.
During the rainy season shallow depressions usually changed into big ponds which create
difficulties in traffic movement.

3.1.1.3 Climate
Lying in Lake Tana Depression with an average elevation of about 1801 meter above sea level,
Bahir Dar falls in ‘Woina Dega’ or Sub-Tropical Agro-Ecological Zone taking altitude as a
criteria ranging from 1500-2300 meter above sea level. The climatic data mainly rainfall and
temperature for the study area were collected based on data from Bahir Dar meteorological
station which is located ,west of Bahir Dar Rural Road Authority, along the street of Ginbot 20
International Air Port.

3.1.1.3.1 Temperature
Temperature variation spatially and seasonally depends on latitude, altitude, humidity and wind
regime (Solomon, 2005). In Ethiopia the mean maximum and minimum temperature vary
significantly by season and area; the annual variation ranges from 2 to 6ºC (Sanchez, 1976 as
cited in Solomon, 2005). Comparison of temperature data within the time frame considered in
this study, i.e. between 1961 and 2008, shows that the average minimum and maximum
temperatures to be 7.8ºC (in 1978) and 28.3ºC (in 2003), respectively. The highest mean monthly
temperature was recorded for the month April (29.1ºC), while the lowest mean monthly
temperature was recorded on month December (7 ºC) (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Temperature data for 48 years (1961-2008)

3.1.1.3.2 Rainfall
The average annual rainfall of the area is 1445.5 mm. Four months (January, February, March
and December) receive the least amount of rainfall. About 84% of the total rainfall occurs
between June and September (Kiremt season), when cropping normally takes place. Fifteen
percent of the total amount of rainfall occurs in the months of April, May, October and
November; and less than 2% occurs in January, February, March and December. The highest and
lowest rainfall occurred in the years 1973 and 1982 with annual rainfall of 2036.9 mm and 894.6
mm, respectively (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Rainfall data for 48 years (1961-2008)

3.1.1.4 Soil
The soils occurring in Bahir Dar area mainly represent residual fine soils (i.e. clays and silty
clays) developed on basaltic bedrocks (FUPI, 2006). There are no coarser soils found either in
out crops or in the deep-water well logs. Two main types of soils can be specifically identified in

the town and its vicinity. The first type represents red clay soils the color of which is the result of
reduction of mafic minerals. Almost all the coast of the lake, starting from the (Blue Nile) bridge
and on the way to Gondar is covered by red soil. The town itself is mostly covered on red soils.
The soils northwest of the town, around airport and beyond, are basically reddish.

3.1.2 Demographic characteristics
3.1.2.1 Population size and trends in Bahir Dar town
According to the Central Statistical Authority the total population of Bahir Dar was 54766,
96140 and 180094 in the three consecutive population and housing census results of 1984, 1994
and 2007, respectively. Moreover, results of population projection reveals that the total
population for the year 1957 and 2009 are 2777 and 197449, respectively. As information
obtained from Bureau of Finance and Economic Development, Amhara Region; Central
Statistical Authority recommends exponential growth rate formula to project population growth
in Ethiopia within inter censual periods. Hence, 1956 population with 10.5 annual growth rate
used for 1957 population projection; 2007 population with 4.6 annual growth rate also used for
population projection of 2009.
Table 1: Population size and growth rate of Bahir Dar town

1957

Total
population
2,777

-

1984

54,766

-

1994

96,140

5.8

2007

180,094

4.6 .

2009

197,449

-

Year

Annual growth rate (%)

Source: CSA, 1984, 1994 and 2007; Projection for 1957 and 2009

3.1.2.2 Ethnic composition
Table 2: Major ethnic groups of Bahir Dar town
Major ethnic group

1984

1994

Agew/Awingi

0.8

0.69

Amhara

90.0

93.2

Gurage

0.1

0.37

Oromo

0.9

0.71

Tigrawi

5.9

3.98

Others

2.1

1.05

Not stated

0.2

-

Total (%)

100

100

Source: CSA, 1984 and 1994
The population of Bahir dar is composed of more than five ethnic and linguistic groups.
According to the 1984 population and housing census, as shown in Table 3.4, Amhara
constituted the largest ethnic group 90% of the total ethnic group followed by Tigrawi, 5.9%.
The other ethnic groups altogether account for the remaining 4.1%. In the case of 1994
population and housing census also Amhara constituted the bulk of ethnic composition 93.2%
followed by Tigrawi 3.98%. The other ethnic groups form 2.82 %.

3.1.3 Socio-economic characteristics
3.1.3.1 Economic activities in Bahir Dar town
The major economic activities practiced in the town include trade, tourism and recreation,
informal sector involvement, urban agriculture, etc. Due to the proximity of the town to Lake
Tana with its historic churches and monasteries and scenic beauties, the tourism sector has

shown fast development by attracting foreign and national visitors. For example, in 2008/09,
from 41155 visitors (both domestic and foreign) 57,167,918.00 birr was collected by the office
(BSZ, Culture and Tourism Office, 2009). Such an increase in tourism has a forward linkage to
stimulate local business activities which has a positive effect to the growth of the town.
Table 3: Tourists visited Bahir Dar and amount of money collected in birr
Year
1995/6
1996/7
1997/8
1998/9
1999/0
2000/1
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
Total

Domestic tourists
visited Bahir Dar
3858
12874
15712
11587
12854
16813
17608
17613
15555
14700
18960
23561
26765
28542
237002

Amount of money
collected in birr
13,208.00
42,780.00
58,115.00
41,766.00
54,798.00
69,264.00
74,289.00
73,348.00
60,421.00
51,036.00
55,296.00
82,609.00
24,828,541.00
26,867,515.00
52,372,986.00

Foreign tourists
visited Bahir Dar
2970
8014
8938
4167
5167
5308
7474
8864
7955
8675
8824
10083
11774
12613
110826

Amount of money
collected in birr
51,990.00
140,710.00
158,013.00
68,455.00
94,345.00
93,680.00
136,844.00
152,865.00
137,470.00
142,705.00
149,178.00
168,025.00
26,216,971.00
30,300,403.00
58,011,654.00

Source: BSZ, Culture and Tourism Office (2009)
According to Bahir Dar Special Zone Trade, Industry and Investment Promotion Office, the
town has shown development in the area of commerce using the opportunities created by the free
market economic system. Accordingly, a total of 1679 people in service, 1702 people in retailer,
and 79 people in wholesale and the rest 850 people are engaged in different business sectors
(BSZ, 2009). With regard to manufacturing industries, currently there are five factories by type
namely Textile, agro processing, food oil, plastic shoe and leather; and seven in number.

Table 4: Manufacturing industries in Bahir Dar town

Ownership of
industry
Government
Private
Total

Types of industry
Textile
1
1
2

Agro proc.
1
1

Oil
1
1

Plastic shoe

Leather

1
1

2
2

Total
2
5
7

Source: BSZ Trade, Industry, Investment and Promotion Office (2009)

3.1.3.2 Physical and social infrastructures
Bahir Dar is a town where road, water and air transport services are available. Till to the Italian
occupation, it was almost inaccessible by all modes of modern transport. Today the town is
linked with various corners of the country. The total length of roads was 269.43 kms of which
about 39.2 km (14.55%) asphalt, 9.41 km (3.49%) Cobblestone, 78.39 (29.1%) km mud and the
remaining 142.43 km (52.86%) was gravel (BSZ Information Office, 2009; BCS Project
Coordination and Monitoring Team, 2009). This indicates that the bulk of the coverage is
weathered road and it needs further construction of asphalt road for maintaining beauty of the
town and to attract tourists.
With regard to health facilities Bahir Dar has a hospital, health centers, regional laboratory,
clinics, pharmacies, health posts, drug stores and vendors which are owned by the government
and the private sector. The Felege-Hiowt hospital, which was established in 1955 in
collaboration with Germany, currently gives services to the population of the town and the
surrounding regions as a whole. The hospital has 413 staffs of which 223 are health professionals
but 190 are administrative workers. The hospital is equipped with 174 beds, 22 doctors, 13
specialists ,104 nurses, 3 pharmacists, 6 radiologists, 18 laboratory technicians, 15 druggists, and

6 health officers. The ratio of doctor to patient for the hospital is about 1:30. Currently it is
serving for about 300-500 patients per day (Felege Hiowt Hospital, 2009).
The town has all level of educational institutions, that is, kindergarten (31), elementary (50),
general secondary (11), preparatory (5), collage (10), TVET (1) and one higher institution, Bahir
Dar university, which offers first and second degree in different faculties and departments for
students coming from the region and the country as a whole (BSZ, Education Office, 2009).
The town receives hydroelectric power generated from the Tis-Isat power station at Blue Nile
falls, located some 30 kilometers south east of Bahir Dar and as a result the town is getting 24
hours of electric power supply service. The sources of water supply for the town are Infranze
stream which is situated behind the Bahir Dar Airport, and ground water taped. Currently there
are five water tankers in different parts of the town. According to Planning and Programming
Office of Bahir Dar City Service (2009), about 89.67 % of total population of the town has
access of tap water. The major problem of water in the town is not the shortage of drinking water
but people use drinking water for construction and investment purpose.
Currently Bahir dar town has endowed with several numbers of hotels and shops, eleven banks
[five governments and six private], six insurances [one government and five private], one credit
and saving union, fourteen printing presses [one government and thirteen private].

3.1.4 Historical development of Bahir Dar town
The historical foundation of Bahir Dar City is associated with the establishment of Kidane
Miheret church in the present site of St. Giorgis church in the 14th century (FUPI, BWUD and
BMA, 2006). The naming of the city, Bahir Dar, has a connection with its proximity to the two

water bodies of the surrounding (Lake Tana and River Abay). It means periphery of a water
body, which may be a periphery to one of them or both of them that is a lake or a river. The
availability of these two water bodies and the foundation of Kidane Miheret Church in the area
are the major possible reasons for foundation of the town.
Beginning from that time as a rural village on wards it has developed in to one of the current
largest city of the country. Its fast development and transformation in to a modern township was
made during the Italian occupation period of 1928-1933 since it was used as a major military
base for their expeditions in the region (http://campus.iss.nl/~group6/501607984? was Read=1).
They turned it into military center and established a secular administration system. They had also
changed the land holding system forcefully and different land use systems were implemented to
introduce residential and commercial places. Moreover, they introduced modern means of
transport, such as plane, motor boat and motor car with other towns and settlements in Gojam
and Begemidir. As indicated in Planning and Programming Office of Bahir Dar City Service
document right after Italians evacuation subsequently feudal nobles were very much eager and
had posed their intention at Bahir Dar. Consequently, it had been selected as a wereda capital by
a man who was named as Zewdu Zemedagegnhu in 1935 E.C. Likewise, in 1948 E.C the then
governor of Gojam Region, Aemiroselassie Abebe, had selected Bahir Dar as Awuraja capital
(Bahir Dar City Service Planning and Programming Office,2009).
The beginning of Blue Nile Basin study in the 1950’s by the government of Ethiopia in
collaboration with the United States of America contributed paramount role to the development
of Bahir Dar. The aim of the study was to identify the irrigation and hydroelectric potential of the
Blue Nile and Lake Tana water resources for the north western part of Ethiopia. Besides, the

construction of Abay River Bridge and the opening of all weather roads that connected Bahir Dar
with important towns like Addis Ababa, Gonder and Asmera accompanied by other public
transport systems like plane and motor boat facilitated the easy flow of goods, information and
people to and from Bahir Dar. According to (FUPI, BWUD and BMA, 2006) ,other government
initiatives that could be considered as framework for the rapid growth of the town were the
installation of water pipe line in 1951 and the establishment of Felege Hiwot Hospital in 1955 by
the help of Germany, the opening up of Polytechnic Institute with the assistance of Soviet Union
1955 , the construction of hydro electric power in Tis Abay in 1956 by Yugoslavian Government
and the establishment of Bahir Dar textile factory in 1954, the construction of the Commercial
Bank of Ethiopia in 1958 were the major reasons for the development of Bahir Dar town .

3.2 Materials
The following materials have been used for the research:
Quick Bird image of 2004 Bahir Dar town;
Aerial Photo with scale 1:50,000 for 1957 and 1984 and 1:10,000 for 1994 from EMA;
GPS for ground truth delineation of 2009 data and mapping;
ERDAS Imagine 9.1 for land use classification and interpretation;
Arc view 3.2a for displaying and subsequent processing and enhancement of image;
Arc GIS 9.2 to display and processing of data; and SAS (JMP5) to calculate statistical data.

3.3 Data acquisition and methods of analysis
The study has employed a wide range of data sources. Consequently, data for the study included
are primary and secondary sources in nature. Primary data have been collected through

questionnaire, observation, and interviews. Secondary data have been collected from census
results, documents, published and unpublished books, and internet web sites which are related to
the problem under study. Besides to these sources remotely sensed data, aerial photographs, with
GIS techniques have been employed.

3.3.1 Land use/ land cover change study
3.3.1.1 Data acquisition and classification
Four pieces of black and white aerial photographs for each year [1957 and 1984] with scale of
1:50,000 and; for the year 1994 twenty one pieces of black and white aerial photographs with
scale of 1:10,000 were obtained from the Ethiopian Mapping Authority (EMA) to generate the
land cover and land use change for the study area. GPS reading was also taken to delineate the
current, 2009 existing built up area of the town. Aerial photographs which have different scales
were adjusted to similar scales by adjusting resolution or pixel size by resampling method during
pre-processing of aerial photographs. Moreover, scales for maps obtained from aerial
photographs and GPS delineation had been corrected to similar scales.
To analyze the aerial photographs, each piece was first scanned independently (Figure, 4). The
digital aerial photographs of the 1957, 1984 and 1994 were also projected [UTM projection,
Clarke 1880 spheroid, Adindan (datum) in Zone 37 N]. The rectification and registration process
were done by using ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1 software. The type of rectification was image-toaerial photo registration. For registration GCPs were selected from geometrically corrected
Quick Bird image of 2004 Bahir Dar Town and image to be rectified (aerial photo). Ground
control points used were churches, canal that stretches from Debanky hill to Bahir Dar university
main campus, Islands in Abay River and some other physical features like large trees. Moreover,

the accuracy of rectification was cheeked by using ground truth; and considering residual errors
at the time of rectification using GCPs. After rectification, geo-referencing in to a map
coordinate system was done using the ERDAS Imagine 9.1. Moreover after, mosaicking the
aerial photographs together; subsets for each study year were clipped out. Land use and land
cover categories from the series of aerial photos were obtained from systematic interpretations
by manual digitization and visual interpretation depending on characteristics of aerial photos
(tone, texture, shape, pattern, aspect and etc). Finally, the result of interpretation of aerial
photographs was checked by ground truth like physical features and GPS reading points.

3.3.1.2 Method of data analysis
From visual and digital interpretations of the aerial photos, different land use and land cover
categories were distinguished. Since emphasis was mainly given for urban expansion and its
impact on surrounding rural communities of Bahir Dar town the land use and land cover classes
analyzed for changes were: built-up, forestland, water bodies and others.
Built-up: all types of man-made surfaces including residential, commercial, industrial,
transportation, etc
Forestland: includes dense vegetation cover and tree planting in the town
Water bodies: physical features including lake ,river, pond and marshland
Others: greening area, vacant areas, wetlands, grazing land, cultivated land and etc.
Moreover, areas for land uses were calculated in hectares and subsequently the results were
compared for each year 1957, 1984 and 1994. However, for the year 2009 to know the area, the
researcher used GPS technique. The population size for the year 1984 and 1994 was obtained

from population and housing census results, and for the year 1957 and 2009 population size was
generated by projection. Based on area and population data, land consumption rate and
adsorption coefficient were calculated for the town and the results were analyzed accordingly.
The Land Consumption Rate and Absorption Coefficient formula are given below as follows:
Land consumption rate is a measure of compactness, which indicates a progressive spatial
expansion of a city.
L.C.R = A/p

……………………………………….................................. Equation 3.1

Where;
A = aerial extent of the city in hectares
P = population
Land absorption coefficient is a measure of change in consumption of new urban land by each
unit increase in urban population.
L.A.C = (A2 – A1/ P2 – P1)

…………………………………………………. Equation 3.2

Where; A1 and A2 are the aerial extents (in hectares) for the early and later years, and P1 and P2
are population figure for the early and later years, respectively (Yeates and Garner, 1976)
Superimposition of maps using GIS techniques were employed to show physical expansion
trends of the town for the year 1957, 1984, 1994 and 2009. The simple linear regression model
was also used to predict the future agricultural land loss due to urban expansion by considering
population growth as a major factor. Moreover, descriptive statistics is used to analyze land use
land cover change data. Tables, maps, percentiles and ratios were used to analyze the data.

Sources of Data

Aerial photographs in
1957, 1984 and1994

Delineation
of the town
for the year
2009

Scanning aerial
photos

Population
size for years:
•
•
•
•

1957
1984
1994
2009

•
•
•
•

Projection and
georeferencing

Focused group
discussion
Interview from urban
dwellers,
Farmers affected and
non affected by urban
expansion,
Officials from Bahir
Dar City Service

Creating subset and
digitizing

Land use and land
cover map of 1957,
1984 and 1994

•

Land use land cover change analysis

•

Socio economic and environmental data analysis

Figure 4: Flow chart that shows procedures followed during data collection and analysis

3.3.2 Socio-economic and environmental study
3.3.2.1 Data acquisition
3.3.2.1.1 Interviewing key –informants in the town
Urban dwellers for the year 1957, 1984 and 1994 were interviewed after delineating aerial
photographs using GIS techniques. These people were interviewed about historical development
of the town, socio-economic and environmental issues as well as factors contributed for urban
expansion. Urban dwellers were also interviewed about the year 2009, from different occupation
[government employee, people who are engaged in business, unemployed urban dwellers]. Four
officials were also interviewed in Bahir Dar City Service [land provision and administration
head, two officials that work in compensation study department and one expert].

3.3.2.1.2 Focus group discussions
Moreover, to investigate the impact of urban expansion on surrounding rural communities as
well as to confirm the data gathered with questionnaire in four rural areas where major urban
expansion is going on, the study involved one FGDs session with a total of six farmer household
heads [three men and three women]. So as, to select members for FGDs, the following criteria
have been employed during focused group discussions:
farmers who are elders of the community;
farmers who are willing to provide information;
farmers who lived there for at least the last 20-30 years continuously; and
farmers who are considered as knowledgeable enough about urban expansion and its
impact on the surrounding rural community

3.3.2.1.3 Questionnaire
To estimate the total population of farmer households who have been affected by urban
expansion, the researcher has consulted officials from Bahir Dar City Service Office. The list and
site of households who have been affected by urban expansion were found from compensation
list in Bahir Dar City Service of Land Provision and Administration office. To know the number
of population size, it was challenging. The major problems were disorganized documentation of
compensation list of farmers, difficulty of identifying farmers who have been paid compensation
or not, repeation of farmers name in the list and absence of willingness to give the file. Finally,
2878 household heads were listed for the purpose of land compensation whose agricultural lands,
totally or partially had been affected due to urban expansion until October 2009.
Table 5: Distribution of sample farmer households
Rural Kebele

Total number of Site
Households a

Addisalem
Woramit

1441
1994

Woreb
Zenzelema
Total

2353
2598
8,386

Motta outlet
Merawi outlet
Air port
Abaymado

Total Dispossessed Sample
farmers b
dispossessed
farmers (10%)
212
21
1193
119
72
1401
2,878

8
140
288.0

Source: a- Bahir Dar city service office documentation planning and program office
b- Compensation list from Bahir Dar city service land provision office

After identifying the population, the procedures were selecting four rural kebeles where major
urban expansion is going on. From each Kebele, representative sample (10%) households were
chosen based on its population size proportionally. Accordingly, 288 farmer household heads
were chosen for questionnaire administration and to collect relevant information regarding up on

urban expansion and its impact on surrounding rural communities. The final analysis, however,
is done on the basis of 271 sample farmer household heads because seventeen sample
respondents [six from Addisalem and 11 from Woramit] were not available although repeated
visits were made during data collection. Respondents background indicates that, by sex 217
(80.1%) and 54 (19.95%) are male and female, respectively. Educational status shows that 61.6%
are illiterate, while 27.3% can read and write, the remaining 11.1% are primary and above.
Regarding the age, majority of respondents 53.9% fall in 15-45 years. Moreover, 38.7% of
households’ age is within 46-65 years, but 7.4% of samples’ age fall 65 years and above.
In addition, 30 farmer households in both sexes who are not affected by urban expansion were
interviewed randomly in surrounding rural communities [Zenzelema, Woramit, Addisalem and
Woreb]. This was done mainly to check whether urban expansion has impact on these
communities or not and; to assess their attitude on urban expansion.

3.3.2.1.3.1 Data gathering procedures from dispossessed farmer households
Prior to the actual data gathering preliminary survey in the study sites was conducted in the
respective kebeles. Moreover, since the first draft of the questionnaire was prepared in English, it
was translated in to Amharic version to avoid misunderstanding of the questionnaire by the
enumerators. After the questionnaire has been translated in to the local language of the
respondents, eight affected farmer household heads have been randomly selected from
Zenzelema and Woramit rural Kebeles and a pre-test of the questionnaire was administered prior
to formal data collection. The aim of pre-test was to check whether there is misunderstanding or
gap between enumerators and farmer households to be interviewed. For data collection, four
enumerators who have been working as DA ‘executive’ in their respective kebeles were

assigned. Enumerators were chosen from the area of the sample farmer households and thus,
assigned to their respective sites as the sample households knew and trusted them to give
information than a strange face.
Above all, before the actual field work, enumerators have been given a day training on
questionnaire, how to approach and ask respondents, and handle the challenges that may come
across during the field work. Each question was explained and clarified in detail to them with
adequate explanation and they were given chances for suggestions and remark that might think
helpful to look up the questionnaire. Having done all these preconditions, official supporting
letters for enumerators were prepared from Bahir Dar mayor office to make sure that they are
legal enumerators on the time of emergence request during enumeration. Besides, the
enumerators had the lists of the names of sample farmer households for which the data is to be
collected. Finally, the data was collected between 2nd of December to 23rd of December, 2009.

3.3.2.1.3.2 Variables used for questionnaire
Socio-economic data from surrounding rural communities were collected based on the following
variables: back ground of respondents, compensation, factors that determine compensation,
household property, services obtained by farmers during urban expansion and others.

3.3.2.2 Methods of data analysis
The socio-economic and environmental data obtained from the survey were analyzed using
Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS version 16, 2007). To analyze the data, the
researcher employed descriptive statistics. Tables, percentiles and frequency distribution were
also used to organize, present and analyze the data. Moreover, Pearson correlation was used to
analyze data pertaining to relationship between households’ income and properties.

Chapter Four
4. Results and discussion
4.1 The aerial extent and direction of urban expansion
According to interview made with 70 years old person ( Ato Dege) regarding expansion trends of
Bahir Dar town, he replied that in 1945 Bahir Dar town became capital of Woreda and, different
offices were built and the town has got attention, this caused gradual expansion. Moreover, in
1946 for the first time municipality was established for Bahir Dar town. A year later in 1947,
construction of roads, residential, commercial houses and some institutions began. Similarly in
1947 land provision was also commenced. The cost for 25 m x 25 m [625m2/.063ha] land was
2.50 Ethiopian Birr. In 1956, the town developed into Awraja including woredas like [Yilma Na
Densa, Mecha and Achefere] and at this time the street from Bahir Dar to Tis Abay was opened
for tourists and local people. In 1961 master plan was prepared by eight Ethiopian and eight
foreign engineers by governor of the town, Fetawrari Habtemariam. According to Ato Dege, at
this time the town was planned to be extended on Gonder outlet to Abune Hara, to West
Woramit Gebrieal, and to South Gordema Gebrieal.
The total area of Bahir Dar town in 1957 was 279.02 ha, but in the year 1984 its area reached to
1159.64 ha (Table, 6). This shows that between 1957 and 1984 there was net 880.62 ha of
additional urban land. And, the average annual rate of expansion per year was 11.69 ha. The
major expansion sites were East [Gondor outlet], West [Airport and Hospital Street] and South
[Merawi and Mota outlet], but not in North direction due to Lake Tana. In this period the bulk of
expansion was took place in Gonder outlet (Figure, 6), the reason might be due to presence of

Abay River for easy accessibility of water. Moreover, in the three directions urban expansion
was mainly taken place, in fertile land which is suitable for various crops.
Between the year 1984 and 1994 the change of urban land was 1617.56 ha. Accordingly, average
annual rate of expansion for the town was 13.95 ha per year. In this time the major rate of urban
expansion was taken place than other time series. The main reason is that in 1992 Bahir Dar
town became the capital of Amhara Regional State. Since then, many development activities
like, offices, residential houses, infrastructure, institutions were constructed. Besides, different
NGOs were also commenced their office in the town. This was also confirmed by interview
made with elderly people of Bahir Dar town and during FGD with people who are living in the
surrounding rural communities of Bahir Dar town.
: Area and average annual expansion rate of Bahir Dar town from 1957 to 2009
Year
Area (ha)

Absolute change of
urban expansion (ha)

Average annual rate of urban
expansion (ha/year)

1957

279.02

-

-

1984

1159.64

880.62

11.69

1994

2777.2

1617.56

13.95

2009

4829.87

2052.67

4.93

Source: Extracted from aerial photo of Bahir [1957, 1984, 1994], GPS reading, 2009

Figure 5: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town (1957-2009)
Urban expansion change between the year 1994 and 2009 was 2052.67 ha. Moreover, the
average annual rate of change was 4.93 ha per year. Between, these periods urban expansion was
lower than others, the possible reason might be intensification of urban land use rather than
horizontal expansion. The major expansion sites were similar like other previous time series.
Moreover, in this period major modification was also taken place towards to Lake Tana.
According to elderly people in the town and personal observation during the study, near Lake

Tana different lodges, restaurants, hotels and coffee houses were established and being
constructing due to investment opportunities. This can be also explicitly seen on Figure 6.

Figure 6: Physical expansion trends of Bahir Dar town/Superimposed/ [1957-2009]

4.2 Land use/ land cover change analysis
Land use land cover change had been taken place in Bahir Dar town. The two forms of urban
expansion that occurred were: horizontal urban expansion and intensification of urban land use.
Horizontal expansion shows that the town expanded from time to time horizontally and engulfed
agricultural lands from surrounding rural communities of Bahir Dar town. However,
intensification shows internal land use conversion, mainly conversion of built up areas from
other land use categories.

4.2.1 Land use /land cover change as result of horizontal expansion
The following four land use land cover categories: built-up, forestland, water bodies and others
were identified for the year 1957, 1984 and 1994 (Table, 7). The land cover analysis for 1957
from aerial photos (Figure, 7) showed that majority of the study area was under other categories
which include [greening area, vacant areas waiting for construction, wetlands, grazing land,
cultivated land and etc..] accounting for 171.53 ha (61.47%), while built-up, water bodies and
forestland accounted for 79.5 ha (28.49%), 21.99 ha (7.88%) and 6.02 ha (2.16%), respectively.
For the year 1984 land cover analysis from aerial photo (Figure, 8) depicts that the bulk of land
cover was under built up i.e. 625.87 ha (53.97%), whereas other categories, water bodies and
forestland covered 405.77 ha (34.99%), 113.13 ha (9.76 %) and 14.87 ha (1.28%), respectively.
Moreover, in the year 1994 as indicated on aerial photo analysis (Figure, 9) other land cover
categories contained 1519.42 ha (54.71), while built-up, water bodies and forestland accounted
for 847.9 ha (30.53%), 311.39 ha (11.21%), and 98.49 ha (3.55%), respectively.

Land covers between 1957 and 1984 on Table 7, shows that there was a major change of built up
i.e. 546.37 ha (62.05%). This indicates that, in this period different infrastructures were
constructed in Bahir Dar town. This is also confirmed by the interview of elderly who lived in
Bahir Dar for the last 50 years. At the same time the amount of forest land has also increased by
8.85 ha (1%) the reason is that, annexation of forest lands mainly around Abay River due to
expansion of the town. Moreover, the magnitude of water bodies also increased by 91.14 ha
(10.35%) due to expansion of the town towards to Abay River. The average annual rate of
expansion depicts that, built up area increased by 25.45 ha per year for 27 years. On the other

hand, forest land and water bodies also increased by 5.44 and 15.35 ha per year, respectively.
This is mainly due to expansion of the town towards to Abay River and inclusion of water bodies
and forestland. On the other hand, the rate of others’ land cover category also increased by 5.06
ha per year.

The land cover changes for Bahir Dar town between 1984 and 1994 shows that (Table, 7), the
bulk of change comprises other land use categories 1113.65 ha (68.85%) followed by built up
222.03 ha (13.73%). Water bodies and forestland were also increased by 198.26 ha (12.26%) and
83.62 ha (5.17%), respectively. The average annual rate of land cover change has also increased.
Accordingly, the annual rate of change of built up increased by 3.55 ha per year while forestland
and water bodies increased by 56.23 % and 17.52 ha per annum, respectively. Forestland
increment is mainly due to expansion of the town towards to Abay River and inclusion of
Bezawit hill which is forestland. Moreover, afforestation programs were also undertaken. The
rate of change for others land cover category also increased by 27.45 ha per for the town.

Within 37 years [1957-1994] there was a great change of land cover for the town (Table, 7). The
built up area of the town increased by 768.4 ha (30.76%), while water bodies increased by 289.4
ha (11.58%). Moreover, forestland for the town also increased by 92.47 ha (3.7%). However,
more than half of the change accounted for other land use categories. Average annual rate of
change depicts that built up areas increased by 26.12 ha per year, forestland by 41.51 ha per year,

and water bodies by 35.57 ha per year. The possible factor that contributed for urban expansion
may be population growth and related factors like establishment of institutions, service sectors,
residential and recreational areas, and others.

Figure 7: Land use of Bahir Dar town, 1957

%

1984

6.02

21.99

171.53

279.04

Forest land

Water bodies

Others

Total area(ha)

100

61.47

7.88

2.16

28.49

1159.64

405.77

113.13

14.87

625.87

ha

79.50

ha

1957

Built up

Categories

Land use

Land cover

100

34.99

9.76

1.28

53.97

%

2777.20

1519.42

311.39

98.49

847.90

ha

1994

100

54.71

11.21

3.55

30.53

%

880.6

234.24

91.14

8.85

546.37

ha

100

26.6

10.35

1

62.05

%

1957-1984

Land cover change

1617.56

1113.65

198.26

83.62

222.03

ha

1984-1994

: Land use cover distribution and annual rate of change from 1957 to 1994

100

68.85

12.26

5.17

13.73

%

2498.16

1347.89

289.4

92.47

768.4

ha

1957-1994

100

53.96

11.58

3.7

30.76

%

1984-1994

5.44

17.52

56.23

25.45

27.45

15.35

3.55

1957-1984

5.06

21.24

35.57

41.51

26.12

1957-1994

Average annual expansion rate (ha/year)

4.2.2 Land use/ land cover change as a result of intensification
Land use land cover intensification had been taken place in Bahir Dar town since 1957 to 1994.
Based on 1957 boundary, clipping was done for 1984 and 1994 land use to compare
intensification of land use/ land cover. However, it was found to be difficult to calculate
conversion matrices for land use land cover of Bahir dar town since overlay analysis had not
been employed for aerial photographs. According to aerial photo interpretation of 1957 the area
of built up was 79.5 ha (28.49%). The rest land uses; forestland, water bodies and other land use
categories were 6.02 ha (2.16%), 21.99 ha (7.88%) and 171.53 ha (61.47%), respectively (Table
8). For the same area of the town like 1957, in the year 1984 built up area was 229.67 ha
(82.31%), which is the bulk of land cover (Figure, 10). In addition, forestland, water bodies and
others’ land use category covered 3.7 ha (1.33%), 20.03 ha (7.18%), and 25.64 ha (9.19%),
respectively. Land cover for the year 1994 depicts that, built up area contained 234.56 ha
(84.06%). Forestland, water bodies and other land use categories also covered 4.79 ha (1.72%),
19.05 ha (6.83%) and 20.64 ha (7.4%), respectively (Table 8).
1. Land use/ land cover change due to intensification from 1957 -1984
Land cover for Bahir Dar town between 1957 and 1984 (Table, 8) shows that there was
significant conversion of land cover from one type to another; for example, built up area
increased by 150.17 ha. The average annual rate of increment illustrates that, built up area
increased by seven ha per year. This increment was due to conversion of land cover particularly
from other land use categories to built-up areas. On the contrary, other land use categories
decreased by 145.89 ha, this shows that the average annual rate of decrement for this land use

was 3.15 ha per year. Moreover, forestland decreased by 2.32 ha (38.54%). Water bodies also
decreased by 1.96 ha (8.91%), the reason might be shrinking of water bodies and use of land for
built up areas.
2. Land use/ land cover change due to intensification from 1984-1994
The land cover change reveals that, built up area increased but its change was not a significant.
Built up area increased by 4.89 ha (2.13%) in 10 years. This does not mean that at this time
urban expansion was insignificant rather there was also horizontal urban expansion (Table, 7).
Likewise, forestland increased by 1.09 ha (29.46%). This might be due to practices of different
tree planting activities in the town by communities as well as households. On the other hand,
water bodies decreased by 0.98 ha (4.89%) for the town. Moreover, the land cover of other land
use category decreased by seven ha (19.5%) mainly as result of increment of built up areas.
3. Land use/ land cover change due to intensification from 1957-1994
Based on 1957 boundary clipping for 1994 boundary was done (Figure, 10). The results were
compared to evaluate whether intensification of land use was taken place or not. Consequently,
the land cover change depicts that built up area increased by 155.06 ha (195%) in 37 years. This
change of increment of land cover for the town was almost twice higher than the 1957 land
cover. The average annual rate of increment was 5.27 ha per year. On the other hand, other land
cover category decreased by 150.89 ha. This shows that about seven times its land cover
decreased from 1957 to 1994 for the town, this was mainly as result of expansion of built up
areas in the town. Moreover, land cover of forestland and water bodies decreased by 20.43% and
13.37%, respectively in 37 years.

Figure 10: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1957, [1984 and 1994] clipped by 1957 boundary

Land cover of 1984 shows that built up area was 625.87 ha (53.97%). Others land use category
covered 405.77 ha (34.99%). Moreover, water bodies and forestland contained 113.13 ha
(9.76%) and 14.87 ha (1.28%), respectively. Based on 1994 land cover of the town, it illustrates
that built up area covered 647.42 ha (55.83%) while others land cover contained 375.85 ha
(32.41%). The land covers of water bodies and forestland were 107.43 ha (9.26%) and 28.94 ha
(2.5%). Land cover change analysis of Bahir Dar town for 10 years describes that built up area
increased by 21.55 ha (3.44%).
The intensification of land cover of built up area was small between 1984 and 1994 (Table, 8). It
does not mean that the expansion of the town was low but at this time there was also high
horizontal expansion of the town. Moreover, land cover of forestland increased by 14.07 ha
(94.62%). This signifies that there might be tree planting programs in the town either
individually or by community in the town. However, water bodies land cover decreased by 5.7
ha (5.04%). This is due to shrinking of Lake Tana and replacement of the land use by built up
and urban agriculture such as fruits and vegetables. Moreover, other land cover categories
decreased by 29.92 ha (7.37%). This was principally due to conversion of land cover in to build
up areas in the town (Figure, 11).

Figure 11: Land use of Bahir Dar town in 1984 and 1994, clipped by 1984 boundary

Acknowledging Support and Providing Gratitude for Guidance Received During a Study

Acknowledging Support and Providing Gratitude for Guidance Received During a Study

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (17)

Ähnlich wie Acknowledging Support and Providing Gratitude for Guidance Received During a Study

Ähnlich wie Acknowledging Support and Providing Gratitude for Guidance Received During a Study (20)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Acknowledging Support and Providing Gratitude for Guidance Received During a Study