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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic
conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the
development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed
herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at:
www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts
based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources
including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the
permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
The Outlook
for Energy:
A View to 2040
Bill Colton
December 9, 2014
2
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
trade
flows
Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
15 demand
sectors
20 fuel
types
technology & policy
3
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
13,000 AA batteries
4,000 smart phone batteries
Energy Measures and Units
24,500 BTU1 log =
5 logs1 gallon gasoline =
1 gallon gasoline 36 kWh=
4
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand
7
6
Household Use
Personal Transportation
6
Commercial Transportation
4
Industrial
11
Commercial Buildings
34
Total
7
5
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
2010 World Daily Energy Demand
34
U.S. Per Capita
7
Times 7 billion people =
~12 billion gallons per day
260 MBDOE
525 QUADS
9
World Per Capita
1.7
6
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
Billion
GDP
Trillion 2010$
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD*
Key Growth
China
India
Rest of World
Energy
Savings
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
7
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
PPP 2005$k
Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD
2040 GDP per Capita
2010
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
8
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
The Middle Class Continues to Grow
Billion People
China
India
Key Growth
Rest of World
OECD*
Middle Class per The Brookings Institution
Brazil
Mexico
South
Africa
Nigeria
Saudi
Arabia
Indonesia
Thailand
Egypt
China
India
Turkey
Iran
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
9
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Primary Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10
‘25
‘40
Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity
Generation
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
10
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Primary Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Non OECD
OECD
‘10
‘25
‘40
Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity
Generation
11
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
12
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Sector Demand
MBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
13
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
2040 LDV Fleet
Base Fleet
Population Growth
Improved Standard of Living
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand
World LDV Demand
MBDOE
Improved Standard
of Living
Population Growth
Million
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Energy
Savings
14
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicles
Fleet by Type
Million
15
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
OECD*
Key Growth
China
India
Rest of World
Heavy Duty Demand by Region
Heavy Duty Transportation
MBDOE
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Heavy Duty Demand by Fuel
MBDOE
Gasoline
Diesel
Other
Gas
16
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
17
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Industrial Demand
Industrial Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Other
Energy Industry
Heavy Industry
Chemical
Plastics
Fertilizer
Paint
Steel
Textiles
Liquid
Fuels
Coal
Natural Gas
Agriculture
Lubricants
Asphalt
Automobiles
18
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
19
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Improved
Standard of Living
Population Growth
Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand by Region
Thousand TWh
Electricity Demand
Thousand TWh
United States
India
Europe
China
Key Growth
2014
Industrial Growth
Base Demand
20
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Fuel Choices for Power Generation
Source: EPRI, Generation Technology Assessment
Relative
benefit/impact
Coal
Coal w/
CCS
Natural
Gas
Nuclear Wind
Solar
Photovoltaic
More Favorable Less Favorable
Construction Cost
Land Use
Water Requirements
Non-CO2 Emissions
Waste Products
Flexibility
Electricity Cost
CO2 Emissions
Availability
21
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Fuel by Region
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10 ‘25
‘40
Key Growth
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Solar
Wind
Other
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
22
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.0%
2010
0.8%
1.6%
2.3%0.5%
5.8% 1.8%
0.1%
23
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
CO2 Emissions
24
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
World Emissions
Billion metric tonnes
CO2 Emissions by Region
OECD*
Rest of World
India
China
Key Growth
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Emissions per Capita
Tonnes / Person
‘10
‘40
25
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Supply
26
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Liquids Supply
MBDOE
World Supply by Type
Trillion Barrels
Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates
Biofuels
Other
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Natural Gas Liquids
Deepwater
Developed Conventional
Crude & Condensate
New Conventional
C&C Development
Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates
27
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region
North
America
MBDOE
Other
Natural Gas Liquids
Biofuels
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional C&C Development
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Demand
‘10 ‘30‘20 ‘40‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
28
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region
North
America
Latin
America
Europe Russia/
Caspian
Africa Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
MBDOE
Biofuels
Natural Gas Liquids
Other
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional C&C Development
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Demand
‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20
29
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region
North
America
Latin
America
Europe Russia/
Caspian
Africa Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
BCFD
‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20
Demand
Unconventional Production
Conventional Production
30
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Indicative trade flows
Energy Trade
31
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Local Production
Pipeline
LNG
Local Production
Energy Trade
BCFD
Gas DemandLiquids Demand
MBDOE
Imports/Exports
32
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Developing Economies Dominate Growth
OECD*
Rest of World
India
China
Key Growth
Quadrillion BTUs
Demand by Region
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
33
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Quadrillion BTUs
Demand by Fuel
34
The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040

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2015 Outlook For Energy presentation

  • 1. This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Bill Colton December 9, 2014
  • 2. 2 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy trade flows Energy Outlook Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy
  • 3. 3 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 13,000 AA batteries 4,000 smart phone batteries Energy Measures and Units 24,500 BTU1 log = 5 logs1 gallon gasoline = 1 gallon gasoline 36 kWh=
  • 4. 4 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand 7 6 Household Use Personal Transportation 6 Commercial Transportation 4 Industrial 11 Commercial Buildings 34 Total 7
  • 5. 5 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2010 World Daily Energy Demand 34 U.S. Per Capita 7 Times 7 billion people = ~12 billion gallons per day 260 MBDOE 525 QUADS 9 World Per Capita 1.7
  • 6. 6 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2010$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs OECD* Key Growth China India Rest of World Energy Savings *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
  • 7. 7 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy PPP 2005$k Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD 2040 GDP per Capita 2010 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
  • 8. 8 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy The Middle Class Continues to Grow Billion People China India Key Growth Rest of World OECD* Middle Class per The Brookings Institution Brazil Mexico South Africa Nigeria Saudi Arabia Indonesia Thailand Egypt China India Turkey Iran *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
  • 9. 9 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity Generation Electricity Generation Leads Growth
  • 10. 10 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation Leads Growth Non OECD OECD ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity Generation
  • 11. 11 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation
  • 12. 12 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Sector Demand MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation Transportation Demand
  • 13. 13 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2040 LDV Fleet Base Fleet Population Growth Improved Standard of Living Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand World LDV Demand MBDOE Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Million *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Energy Savings
  • 14. 14 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicles Fleet by Type Million
  • 15. 15 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy OECD* Key Growth China India Rest of World Heavy Duty Demand by Region Heavy Duty Transportation MBDOE *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Heavy Duty Demand by Fuel MBDOE Gasoline Diesel Other Gas
  • 16. 16 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial
  • 17. 17 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial Demand Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other Energy Industry Heavy Industry Chemical Plastics Fertilizer Paint Steel Textiles Liquid Fuels Coal Natural Gas Agriculture Lubricants Asphalt Automobiles
  • 18. 18 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation
  • 19. 19 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Electricity Demand Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Electricity Demand Thousand TWh United States India Europe China Key Growth 2014 Industrial Growth Base Demand
  • 20. 20 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Fuel Choices for Power Generation Source: EPRI, Generation Technology Assessment Relative benefit/impact Coal Coal w/ CCS Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Photovoltaic More Favorable Less Favorable Construction Cost Land Use Water Requirements Non-CO2 Emissions Waste Products Flexibility Electricity Cost CO2 Emissions Availability
  • 21. 21 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Fuel by Region Quadrillion BTUs ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Key Growth Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Wind Other *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
  • 22. 22 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Demand 2040 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2010 0.8% 1.6% 2.3%0.5% 5.8% 1.8% 0.1%
  • 23. 23 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy CO2 Emissions
  • 24. 24 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy World Emissions Billion metric tonnes CO2 Emissions by Region OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person ‘10 ‘40
  • 25. 25 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Supply
  • 26. 26 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Conventional Crude & Condensate Liquids Supply MBDOE World Supply by Type Trillion Barrels Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates Biofuels Other Tight Oil Oil Sands Natural Gas Liquids Deepwater Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate New Conventional C&C Development Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates
  • 27. 27 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region North America MBDOE Other Natural Gas Liquids Biofuels Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand ‘10 ‘30‘20 ‘40‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
  • 28. 28 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region North America Latin America Europe Russia/ Caspian Africa Middle East Asia Pacific MBDOE Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids Other Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand ‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20
  • 29. 29 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Gas Trade Balance by Region North America Latin America Europe Russia/ Caspian Africa Middle East Asia Pacific BCFD ‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20 Demand Unconventional Production Conventional Production
  • 30. 30 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Indicative trade flows Energy Trade
  • 31. 31 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Local Production Pipeline LNG Local Production Energy Trade BCFD Gas DemandLiquids Demand MBDOE Imports/Exports
  • 32. 32 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Developing Economies Dominate Growth OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Region *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
  • 33. 33 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Energy Use Evolves Over Time Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Fuel
  • 34. 34 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040