Energy Low Emission Development Strategies in Asia: A Regional Overview and Experiences from Thailand
29 October 2014
Presenters:
Alexander Ochs - Worldwatch Institute
S.S. Krishnan - Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy
Beni Suryadi - ASEAN Centre for Energy
Bundit Limmeechokchai -Thammasat University

Welcome & Introduction
Alexander Ochs
Worldwatch Institute
LEDS-EWG Chair

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1.Welcome & Introduction
Alexander Ochs, Worldwatch Institute, LEDS-EWG Chair
2.Introduction to the LEDS Asia Regional Platform and the Importance of Energy in Asia
S.S. Krishnan, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, LEDS-EWG Co-Chair for Asia
3.Key Low-Emission Energy Developments in Asia
Beni Suryadi, ASEAN Centre for Energy
4.Learning from Thailand’s Clean Energy Strategy
Bundit Limmeechokchai, Thammasat University
5.Q&A
6.Survey
Outline

LEDS Global Partnership
International initiative aiming to harness the collective knowledge and resources of governments, donors, international organizations, and practitioners in scaling up and strengthening implementation of climate-resilient low emission development around the world.
Launched in 2011, the LEDS GP now catalyzes action and collaboration across more than 120 countries and international organizations.

Energy Working Group (EWG)
The EWG promotes low-emission and climate- resilient development in the energy sector through a work program focused on learning and information exchange, sharing best practices, advisory services, and providing enhanced opportunities for coordination and collaboration.
Objectives
Strengthen support for LEDS in energy sector
Mobilize capacity and advance peer-to-peer learning and collaboration on low emission energy development
Improve coordination of energy-related LEDS at the country, regional, and global levels

Energy Working Group Activities
Current work plan, highlights
Webinars:
Events:
•LEDS GP Annual Event, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (August):
- Energy Peer Learning Session For African Countries
- Energy Sector Strategies and Policy Portfolios Session
•LEDS LAC Regional Forum 2013
2015 work plan, highlights:
•Energy & Development World Atlas
•Energy Toolkit
•Energy Data Crowdsourcing Project
•Energy LEDS Training Camp
•Energy Policy Development Group
•Best Practices in Gathering and Using Energy Data for LEDS Development (April)
•Energy LEDS in Asia (Oct.)
•Energy LEDS in Africa (Nov./Dec.)
•Energy LEDS in LAC (Nov./Dec.)

Asia LEDS Partnership
S.S. Krishnan LEDS-EWG Co-Chair for Asia

Asia LEDS Partnership Importance of Energy in Asian economies
•Economic growth and rural development are overarching national goals
•Affordable, reliable, clean energy is critical to maintain pace of inclusive development
•Conventional energy sources are limited and require large investments and natural resources
•Achieving inclusive development requires acceleration of clean energy in developing economies

Asia LEDS Partnership Importance of Energy in Asian economies
•Clean energy provides a pathway for socio-economic development
•Challenges to clean energy deployment include:
•Capacity building and awareness
•Financing mechanisms
•Lessons and Best practices from similar economies
•Tools for estimating baselines and policy success
•Power, Transport, Industry, Buildings, Agriculture sectors need nuanced policies with cross cutting analysis

Asia LEDS Partnership LEDS Energy Working Group Activities
•Peer Learning, Sustainable Energy Webinars, Best Practice Inventory, LEDS Energy Toolkit
•Identify and disseminate tools, models, approaches and best practices on clean energy approaches
•Foster information exchange, coordination, and collaboration in Asia among programs and countries
•Promote capacity building of practitioners in designing and implementing energy policies for LEDS and green growth
•Build awareness of and support for energy related LEDS development and implementation across Asia by inspiring and catalyzing leaders of change.

Key Energy Developments in Asia
Beni Suryadi
ASEAN Centre for Energy

Overview Trend in Asia

Energy & Carbon Intensity in Asia

By Sector:
Energy consumption increased at an annual rate of 7.0% from 213 MTOE in 2002 to 390 MTOE in 2011
The other sector: residential and commercial, had the fastest growth at an average annual rate of 8.7% resulting to its increased share of total final energy consumption.
Energy Consumption in ASEAN

By Fuel Type:
Energy consumption of others which is mostly biomass was the fastest growing at 13.9% per annum
Oil remained as the dominant fuel in final energy consumption but has slower growth rate at 4.1%.
Energy Consumption in ASEAN

The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2010-2015
July 2009: : ASEAN Ministers launched the third series of implementation plan of the ASEAN Vision 2020 as prescribed in the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2015, named as APAEC 2010-2015, to serve as the blueprint for ASEAN cooperation in the field of energy for the period 2010-2015 under the theme “Bringing Policies to Actions: Towards a Cleaner, more Efficient and Sustainable ASEAN Energy Community”, to support the realization of the ASEAN Economic Community towards 2015 and beyond. Targets outlined on Low Emission Strategies:
Goal of reducing regional energy intensity of at least 8% by 2015 based on 2005 level.
To achieve a collective target of 15% for regional renewable energy in the total power installed capacity by 2015.

National Targets on EE&C and RE to Support APAEC
Member States
Energy Efficiency Saving Goal
Renewable Energy Targets
Brunei
Attain 25% reduction of energy intensity from 2005 level by 2030
10 MW of solar PV capacity by 2030
Cambodia
Reduce final energy consumption by 10% in all sectors
Solar photovoltaic (1.5 MW), Biomass Gasification (87 kW), Micro-hydro (500 kW)
Indonesia
Reduce final energy consumption by 1% per year from the BAU scenario
By 2025, the energy mix of Indonesia should contain: 5% biofuels, % geothermal, 2.6% hydro, 0.03% wind, 0.74 biomass
Laos
Reduce final energy consumption by 10% in all sectors
Development of hydro projects for domestic use and export.
Malaysia
(i) Reduction of final energy consumption in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors by 10% from 2011 to 2030, (ii) Reduce final energy consumption of the transportation sector by 1.39 ktoe in 2030 by modal and fuel switching from gasoline to electricity rail transport and electric vehicles
Installed renewable energy capacity by 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal Solid Waste, Biofuels to displace 5% of diesel in road transport
Myanmar
(i) Reduce primary energy consumption by 5% in 2020 and 8% by 2030 compared to BAU, (ii) Improve energy efficiency in all end-use by 16% by 2030
(i) 15%-20% share of renewable energy to total installed electricity generating capacity, (ii) Displace 8% conventional liquid fuels with biofuels in road transport
Philippines
Reduce final energy consumption by 10% in all sectors
Target by 2030: ~ 1,500 MW of new geothermal capacity, ~ 2,100 MW of new hydro capacity, ~950 MW of new wind capacity, ~71 MW of new solar PV capacity, ~102 MW of new biomass capacity, Displace 15% of diesel and 20% of diesel and 20% of gasoline with biofuels
Singapore
(i) Reduce energy intensity by 20% by 2020 and by 35% by 2030 from the 2005 level (ii) Cap CO2 emissions from combustion of fuel at 63 Mt- CO2 in 2020.
Solar energy to take a 5% share of the country’s power generation mix.
Thailand
Save 25% of total energy in 2030 relative to BAU
Install 6,329 MW of various RE electricity generating facilities, Biofuels to displace 12.2% of transport energy demand
Vietnam
Reduce energy consumption by 3%-5% by 2010 and between 5%-8% by 2010-2015
RE Targets by 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Small Hydro, 400 MW biomass

Expected CO2 Reduction from National Targets
24% reduction in CO2 by 2030 is expected under Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), compare to Business as Usual Scenario (BA) as a result of the energy efficiency and renewable energy development action plans in National level to support regional aspiration. This is based on member countries fulfilling their current commitments to reduce the fuel consumption by end-users and power generation, as well as install more carbon free or carbon neutral generation sources, such as nuclear, biomass, wind and solar power facilities.

ASEAN’ Current Results
Renewable energy total installed capacity in the ASEAN increased significantly from 24,424.84 MW in 2006 to 39,097.58 MW in 2011.
Reached about 0.34 toe/million 2005 USD in 2010, Energy Intensity in 2011 back on the same level of 2005.

Key Findings
As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, energy consumption and CO2 emission in ASEAN as a region will growth very fast, put a pressure on energy security and environmental stability.
If current energy (fossil fuel) production levels in the region do not increase - the region will have to source out this additional demand from outside the region, or need to tap more on its potential on renewable energies which are abundantly available through the region.
Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low-carbon technologies and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in power generation - would be needed to reduce carbon intensity and enhance energy security.

Next Step: Development of the 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook
APS will utilize the full potential of the renewable energy resources and EE&C action plants in the region under the energy market integration to reach the potentially maximum role of renewable energy in energy supply and reduction of Energy Intensity.
References to (i) clearly define a legal and policy framework to promote RE and EE&C into sustainable development strategy; (ii) strengthening research and development on RE and EE&C technology appropriate to the ASEAN region; (iii) continue studies on RE and EE&C market and provide funding for promotion of environmentally friendly green energy.
To be presented for the endorsement of ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in 2015 in Malaysia.

Learning from Thailand’s Clean Energy Strategy
Bundit Limmeechokchai
Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
Thammasat University

Energy in Thailand: Past and Presence
Thailand GHG emissions by sectors in 2000
Energy,
69.57%
Industrial Process,
7.15%
Agriculture &
Livestock, 22.64%
Forestry, -3.44%
Waste Management,
4.07%
Source: Thailand’s Second National Communication, (ONEP, 2011)

National Circumstance: Thailand Population and GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1990
1995
2000
2005
No. of HH (Millions)
Population (Millions)
Population
Number of household
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990
1995
2000
2005
Thousand USD per Capita
Gross output (bil. Baht)
Services
Industry
Agriculture
Per Capita GDP

National Circumstance: Thailand Energy and CO2 emissions
2
2
3
3
9
16
16
23
9
9
11
13
11
19
18
23
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990
1995
2000
2005
Energy use (Mtoe)
Agriculture
Industry
Res. & Com.
Transportation
6
6
9
11
33
31
31
43
21
4
4
5
34
47
44
56
32
50
58
76
-
50
100
150
200
250
1990
1991
1992
1993
CO2 emission (Mt-CO2)
Agriculture
Industry
Res. & Com.
Transportation
Power generation
1990
1995
2000
2005

Thailand’s NAMAs: The Ambitious Target
1.Renewable Electricity (AEDP, +25%RE in 2021)
2.Energy Efficiency (EEDP, -25%EI in 2030)
3.Environmental Sustainable Transport System
Thailand’s Clean Energy Future

“Thailand will endeavor to lower CO2 emissions by 20% in 2020 compared to the BAU”
CO2 Counter-measures for Thailand’s Energy LEDS
• RE Power: Renewable electricity: Biomass, biogas, hydro, Waste-to-energy, Solar, Wind etc.
• EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement in Industries, Buildings.
• Transport: Bio-Fuels, Improving Fuel Economy etc. & Environmental Sustainable Transport System.
Thailand’s NAMAs Mitigation Pledge

Alternative Energy
Target (MW)
Energy (GWh)
OLD
NEW
OLD
NEW
Wind
1,200
1,800
1,576
2,365
Solar PV
2,000
3,000
2,628
3,942
Mini Hydro
324
324
993
993
- Pump Storage
1,284
-
7,873
-
Biomass
3,630
4,800
22,259
29,434
Biogas
600
600
3,153
3,154
- Napier Grass
3,000
-
21,024
Waste to Energy
160
400
841
2,102
New RE
3
3
10.51
10.51
TOTAL
9,201
13,927
39,336
63,025
Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP25%) 2021
Thailand’s Clean Energy Future

CO2 Emissions in the BAU and NAMA Roadmap
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Total CO2 emissions (kt-CO2)
360 Mt
7% or 25 Mt
BAU
Assessment with Domestic MRV in 2014
Thailand’s Clean Energy Future

Thailand Appropriate GHG Mitigation in 2020
20%
Thailand’s Clean Energy Future

National Committee on Climate Change Policy (NCCC)
Prime Minister
Minister of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)
Chair
Vice-Chair
Sub-committees
NCCC members:
1.Prime Minister’s Office
2.Ministry of Finance
3.Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
4.Ministry of Transport and Communications
5.Ministry of Information and Communication Technology
6.Ministry of Energy (DEDE, EPPO)
7.Ministry of Commerce
8.Ministry of Interior
9.Ministry of Science and Technology
10.Ministry of Education
11.Ministry of Public Health
12.Ministry of Industry
13.Bangkok Metropolitan Administration
14.Office of the National Economics and Social Development Board
15.Bureau of Budget
16.Experts
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)
ONEP/CCMC
Secretariat
TGO
(Policy formulation and National Focal Point)
(DNA (for CDM) / Technical support and services to project developers)
Institutional Framework for Climate Change Policy in Thailand

NAMAs MRV
Thailand’s Energy LEDS: What Needed ?

MRV of RE Power
Thailand’s Energy LEDS: What Needed ?

MRV of EE NAMA
Thailand’s Energy LEDS: What Needed ?

30%
20%
2050BAU
2050LCS
Peak CO2
Thailand’s Post2020 Scenarios
Low Emission Pathway and Peak Emission Scenarios

Thailand’s Energy LEDS: Key Lessons Learned
•Co-benefits reveal positive aspects of GHG mitigation.
•MRV process needs cooperation among related ministries.
•Abatement costs of actions are identified.
•It is concluded among Thai stakeholders that the NAMAs action of 7-20% reduction in CO2 will be unilateral NAMAs.
•However, MRVs of such actions are required to ensure GHG reduction achievement and transparency.
•Experiences learned from pre2020 is used in development of post2020 agreement or the intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) .

Thailand’s Energy LEDS: Post2020
Upfront Info (for Thailand’s INDC 2030)
1.Baseline Scenario vs. 2030 Scenario
2.Realistic policy/actions (RE, EE, LCS/LEDS)
3.Projection methodology/modeling (AIM, MARKAL, LEAP etc.)
4.Data sources (Official Statistic Reports, Gov’t policies)
5.Sectoral approach for emission/reduction.
6.Integrated modeling will be done for the whole energy system.
7.Land-use and forestry will not be included.
8.Annual GHG reduction until 2030 will be quantified.
9.Double counting of actions will be avoided.
10.Outcome will be transparent Thailand’s INDC 2030.

Thailand’s Energy LEDS: Conclusions
•Thailand’s Energy LEDS will result in transformational changes in both supply side and demand side.
•To achieve peak target, Thailand needs, i) LEDS Capacity Building, ii) sustainable Feed-in Tariff scheme for renewable electricity, iii) enforcement of Energy Efficiency laws in buildings and industries, iv) co-funding of the LEDS actions.
•The peak target will not be achieved if they are not planned & implemented in the early stage. The lock-in emissions will happen to Thailand.
•In addition, M R V of LEDS actions are of necessity.

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Survey
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Thank you
Alexander Ochs, aochs@worldwatch.org
S.S. Krishnan, ssk@cstep.in
Beni Suryadi, benisuryadi@aseanenergy.org
Bundit Limmeechokchai, bundit.lim@gmail.com
Stay tuned for our upcoming energy webinars on leaders in the Latin America & Caribbean and Africa regions!