1. Grant Thornton IBR Q4-2013 results
How optimistic are you for your economy over the next 12 months?
80
United States
Business optimism in the US
60
fell back to 36% in Q4; a new
40
government budget and debt
ceiling extension need to be
20
agreed in early 2014 following
the recent shutdown.
0
80
eurozone
Confidence remains at just
60
8% in the currency bloc with
40
German (51%) and French
(the lowest globally at -38%)
20
business leaders at opposite
ends of the scale.
0
80
United Kingdom
UK business optimism
60
remains elevated at 71% –
40
the seventh highest globally;
unemployment and inflation
20
are falling, with house prices
and growth on the up.
0
80
Russia
As growth forecasts are
60
slashed, Russian business
40
optimism fell for the fourth
straight quarter and now
20
stands at its lowest since
2009.
0
80
China
Optimism in China slipped
60
again to 22% although the
40
third plenum promised a
number of positive measures
20
including SOE, judicial and
fiscal reform.
0
80
Japan
Business optimism in Japan
60
climbed back into positive
40
territory for only the second
time since 2003 with the
20
business community continuing
to 0
back Abenomics.
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
20
-80
0
2012-
2013-
20
-80
0
2012-
20
-80
2013-
0
2012-
20
-80
2013-
0
2012-
2013-
20
-80
2012-
0
20
-80
2013-
0
-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-40
-40
-40
-40
-40
-60
80
-60
80
-60
80
-60
80
-60
80
-60
80
-80
60 2012-
-80
60 2012-
-80
60 2012-
-80
60 2012-
-80
60 2012-
2013-
-20
-40
2012-
2013-
2013-
2013-
-80
60 2012-
2013-
40
20
Key: A score above
zero indicates net optimism
0
40
40
20
20
2013-
40
20
40
40
20
2013-
20
0
0
0
0
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
80
-20
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
60
-40
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
40
-60
20
-80
20
-80
20
-80
0
0
2012-
2013-
0
2012-
2013-
0
36
2012-
2013-
-20
-40
Global
-40
-60
-60
-80
40
2012-
-80
2013-
2012-
2013-
20
-80
0
-20
-40
-60
80
2013-
0
-20
-20
-80
60 2012-
71
20
-80
1
8
2012-
2013-
-20
-40
-40
-60
20
-80
2013-
0
-60
-80
2012-
30
2013-
-80
27
20
2012-
22
2012-
-20
-40
-60
2012-
-80
2013-
2013-
6
2012-
2013-
45
69
80
800
80
80
80
80
80
60
-20
60
2660
60
60
60
60
40
-40
40
40
40
40
40
40
20
-60
20
20
20
20
0
-80
0
0
0
0
0
0
-20
2012-
2013-
40
42
20
20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-40
-40
-40
-40
-40
-40
Latin America
-40
-60
Confidence in Latin America
-60
fell again to 26%, with Brazil
-80
2012dropping to a new 2013- low
record
-80
of just 10%; Argentina and
20122013Mexico optimism also dropped
but Peru and Chile ticked up.
South Africa
-60
Business optimism rose back
to 40% from a record low in
-80
20122013Q3; it remains to be seen what
effect the passing of Nelson
Mandela will have on the
economy.
Turkey
-60
Turkish business optimism
climbed back up to 30%
-80
20122013in Q4 as social unrest
India
-60
Indian business optimism
arrested its recent slide
-80
20122013as hopes increased that
new central bank governor,
Raghuram Rajan, can boost
growth while taming inflation.
Australia
-60
Optimism in Australia climbed
for
-80 the third straight quarter
20122013reaching its highest since
2010 as businesses react
positively to the election of
Tony Abbott.
ASEAN
-60
Optimism in Southeast
Asia
-80 ticked up for the third
20122013straight quarter, boosted
80
80
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
20
20
subsided although the US
Federal Reserve tapering
announcement last month
could hurt the lira.
by Indonesia (78%) although
Thai businesses (-20%)
remain unsettled by ongoing
political unrest.
0
0
0
0
0
0
-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-20
-40
-40
-40
-40
-40
-40
-60
-60
-60
-60
-60
-60
-80
2012-
2013-
-80
2012-
2013-
-80
2012-
2013-
-80
2012-
2013-
-80
2012-
2013-
-80
2012-
To examine IBR results going back to 1992, use our data visualisation tool: https://dataviztool.internationalbusinessreport.com/ibr.html
Sample: 3,300 mid-market business leaders interviewed in 45 economies
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2014
80
60
2013-
