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OIL CRISIS MANAGEMENT
         (cost transfers)


     2 graphical simulations
     of crises impacting on
     the Oil price and
     amplification
     mechanisms leading to
     a return to the stability of
     the energy supplies and
     fixed price


           IRAK-IRAN WAR
       ARAB REVOLUTION

     BUSINESS INNOVATION
    RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT




        
Iran­Irak war and oil crisis management
                                                                                                No high Price
                                                                                                = No costs



                                                                                  COST TRANSFER ANALYSIS
                                                 ENVIRON                          Koweit maintained Oil Volume
                             Koweit              MENTAL                           Production to avoid costs →
               IRAN          invasion            DAMAGES                          Costs were inevitable when
                                                                   Cost           Irak envaheded Koweit and
                                                 WHEN OIL                         burned of the volumes of oil
                                                 FIELDS                           instead of redcuigng the
      Costs of                                   BURNED                           production s required by Irak

                                No duc
                                 pr
      war                           o
                                    rm tio
                                                            EQUILIBRIUM                             US Solution
                                      al n                                                          (1990)
  Invasion             IRAK Irak                  KOWEIT                      USA                   Invasion
  of Irak                   endebted                                                                of Irak
                                         is n                                    Price of
                                      ris ctio
                                    C u                                          oil is low          US Solutions
                                                                                                     (2012)
                                        d
                                    pro                                                              + Energy Act
                                                    S                     D                          + Strategy of
                                                                                                     diversification
                                                               Cost = loss          High
                                     S >> D                                         Price oil

                     Pressure to
Irak                 increase the                 Production                   USA Oil dependencies
Requirements                                      Volume                       On Koweit foreign import
                     oil price
GS RADJOU
                                                  unchanged
                                                                               (Source: judgement call)
Arab revolutions and Oil crisis management: 
         Geo-
         Political
         risk costs
                                       World commodity/oil Low Prices
         Arab
ΔP<0
         (2011)                                                                       Oil Relative
(Volume) revolution                                                                   demand
         + …...                                                                       ----> 2011,
                                                                                           + 3%)
         + Syria                                              ΔP>0   Oil high
         + Iran                                             (Volume) price                 cost      cost


                                                             ΔP < 0    Oil Relative
                                                             (Volume)      demand
         Normal                                                          --> 2010,
         Volume of                                             Oil low        +1%
         Production                                             price
                                                                        Cost=loss

                                               S                Equilibrium           D



                       World (OPEC, China, Russia, USA,....) Hydrocarbon Exploration (Oil, Gas,...)

                              S=D            No cost = No need gas exploration
                                             Cost tranfers: Oil high price => costs because not able to produce and
                              S<D            the relative increase of demand (S< D) leads to cost for world gas
 GS RADJOU                                   exploration                            (Source :Surgutneftegas”)
CONTACT CONCERNING THESE SLIDES
    (Still work in progress)

    For a suggestion or a comments,
    Please, send a feed-back at:

    Georges RADJOU, CEO, MBA, DUPEBH
    georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com




          

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Costs of oil impacts and equilibrium of oil price

  • 1. OIL CRISIS MANAGEMENT (cost transfers) 2 graphical simulations of crises impacting on the Oil price and amplification mechanisms leading to a return to the stability of the energy supplies and fixed price IRAK-IRAN WAR ARAB REVOLUTION BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT    
  • 2. Iran­Irak war and oil crisis management No high Price = No costs COST TRANSFER ANALYSIS ENVIRON Koweit maintained Oil Volume Koweit MENTAL Production to avoid costs → IRAN invasion DAMAGES Costs were inevitable when Cost Irak envaheded Koweit and WHEN OIL burned of the volumes of oil FIELDS instead of redcuigng the Costs of BURNED production s required by Irak No duc pr war o rm tio EQUILIBRIUM US Solution al n (1990) Invasion IRAK Irak KOWEIT USA Invasion of Irak endebted of Irak is n Price of ris ctio C u oil is low US Solutions (2012) d pro + Energy Act S D + Strategy of diversification Cost = loss High S >> D Price oil Pressure to Irak increase the Production USA Oil dependencies Requirements Volume On Koweit foreign import oil price GS RADJOU unchanged     (Source: judgement call)
  • 3. Arab revolutions and Oil crisis management:  Geo- Political risk costs World commodity/oil Low Prices Arab ΔP<0 (2011) Oil Relative (Volume) revolution demand + …... ----> 2011, + 3%) + Syria ΔP>0 Oil high + Iran (Volume) price cost cost ΔP < 0 Oil Relative (Volume) demand Normal --> 2010, Volume of Oil low +1% Production price Cost=loss S Equilibrium D World (OPEC, China, Russia, USA,....) Hydrocarbon Exploration (Oil, Gas,...) S=D No cost = No need gas exploration Cost tranfers: Oil high price => costs because not able to produce and S<D the relative increase of demand (S< D) leads to cost for world gas GS RADJOU     exploration (Source :Surgutneftegas”)
  • 4. CONTACT CONCERNING THESE SLIDES (Still work in progress) For a suggestion or a comments, Please, send a feed-back at: Georges RADJOU, CEO, MBA, DUPEBH georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com