6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Stress Testing of Cities ─ How to
Live and Plan with New Risks
Theo KÖTTER, Dominik WEISS, Asad ASADZADEH,
University of Bonn, Germany

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Motivation & Targets
Motivation:
To find out how the concept of urban resilience can be addressed for better perception,
managing, and governning urban areas (106 German Cities) as complex socio-
ecological systems in times of crisis and disturbances.
Targets:
 Understanding components (factors) that contribute to urban resilience and interactions that
are needed to build and sustain it.
 Developing a simple and practicable benchmarking tool for:
1) Measuring functionality and potential performance of cities against multiple stresses.
2) Comparative assessment of urban case studies in terms of their resilience level.
 To operate the inherent capacity of urban areas to cope with, adapt to crisis and shocks, and
shape changes.
Bild: Colourbox.de

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Robusteness
Redundancy
Resourcefulness
Flexiblity
Innovation
Adaptability
Multifunctionality
InherentconditionsAdaptivecapacity
Operationalizing by selecting relevant and representative indicators
Robust structures resist to and mitigate against the negative impacts of
urban stresses and thus limit the adverse effects.
 Quantitative Indicators (antecedent conditions or products of a place-specific multiscaler
processes that occur within and between social, natural, and built-environment systems).
Adaptability enables a system to adjust multiple disturbances, moderate
potential damage, take advantages of opportunities, and cope with the
consequences of a transformation that occurs.
 Qualitative Indicators (attributes associated with strategies, plans, and governing urban
resilience).
Characteristics of Resilience
Concept of Urban Resileince
The ability of an urban system-and all its constituent socio-ecological and socio-technical
networks across temporal and spatial scales-to maintain or rapidly return to desired functions in
the face of a disturbance, to adapt to change, and to quickly transform systems that limit current
or future adaptive capacity (Meerow et al. 2016).

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Methodological Steps
1. Theoretical foundation (functional concept of a dynamic city)
2. Characterizing descriptors (9 assets) that contribute to urban resilience
3. Developing stress scenarios (8 various possible shocks)
4. Defining potential indicators for each discriptor and data standardization
5. Results:
a) Mapping robustness
b) Resilience profile for each city (robustness and adaptability)

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Dynamic Functionalities of Urban Areas

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Working Living
Resilience Descriptors
Housing Market
Demographic Structure
Social Capital
Environment
Technical Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Finances
Energy
Social Infrastructure
 The structural elements
or assets of a city that
are required for urban
functions.

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
1. Huge and continuous migration and refugees
2. Decreasing/increasing population
3. Economic changes; insolvency of a single dominant company
4. Social polarization
5. Heavy rainfall
6. Heat wave
7. Energy import
8. Energy transition
Stress Scenarios

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Descriptors
Scenarios
Financesituation
TechnicalInfrastructure
SocialInfrastructure
Energy
Demographicstructure
Economicstructure
Housingmarket
Environmentalquality
Socialcapital
Immigration ο ο ο ο ο
Decreasing/increasing population ο ο ο ο ο ο ο
Economic changes; company drop out ο ο ο
Social polarization ο ο ο ο
Heavy rainfall, flooding ο ο ο
Heat wave ο ο ο
Energy import ο ο ο ο
Energy turn around ο ο ο
Relationship Between Descriptors and Stress Scenarios

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Robustness: 57 indicators based on availability
of consistent quality data from national and
community data sources (secondary data).
Very low= 1 Low =2 Moderate = 3 High =4 Very high= 5
𝑥 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚 = 1 −
𝑥 − 𝑥 𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑥 𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑥 𝑚𝑖𝑛
∗ 4 + 1
Adaptability: 47 indicators based on
questionnaire survey (primary data).
Question example: Does your city apply
special forms of cooperation with local
companies to integrate young unemployed
into work.
Indicators, Standardization and Rating
Criteria of
Adaptability
Possible answers
Rating
scales
Local coordination plan
Not on agenda 1
In planning 2
Exists 3
Approved, applied 4
Approved, evaluated and updated 5
Unemploymentrate

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Mapping Robustness: Social Polarization Scenario
Population Structure Housing Market Social Infrastructure

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Resileince Profile (Robusteness & Adaptability)
Overview of all Stresses Scenarios For Scenario of Social Polarization

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Next Step: Interpretation and Verification
For verification and implementation purpose, the obtained results were sent to pilot
cities in order to check the findings:
1. To what extent the developed stress scenarios are robust, relevant, and representativeness
(verification).
2. To what extent the resilience profile are able to communicate with local politicians and
decision-makers in order to prioritizing strategies, planning, and actions (connectability).
3. To what extent the results can be integrated in local urban planning and development
processes (implementation).

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
 The empirical study has advanced the understanding of multidimensional nature of
resilience.
 The stress and risk perspective provides new insights in urban developments in times of
crises and hazards.
 The assessment provides a comparative evaluation of resilience index and points out
where interactions are more necessary.
 It provides a self-evaluating tool for operationalizing the concept of urban resilience that
can be adopted by every city if necessary.
 Support decision-makers and local administrators for successful management of various
urban stresses.
Result and Conclusion

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Theo Kötter
Nußallee 1
53115, Bonn
Tele: 0228. 732612
Email: tkoetter@uni-bonn.de