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DRF - Pres Final

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Veröffentlicht am

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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DRF - Pres Final

  1. 1. A smart approach to manage Weather related exposures Eivind Helland - Swissnor GmbH, Baden, Switzerland. Hanspeter Frei - Global Risk Experts AG, Wollerau, Switzerland Sebastian Glink - MeteoGroup Schweiz AG, Appenzell, Switzerland.
  2. 2. Natural Hazards over the last 30 years • causes widespread destruction and loss of life • almost USD 4 trillion in economic losses • 75% are storm- and flood related • 40% of these losses alone in Asia
  3. 3. Meteo Risk Response Methodology • Integrate  advanced weather technology  onsite risk assessments  quantitative risk analytics • User-friendly cloud based solution – readily accessible company-wide from anywhere
  4. 4. The ‘Meteo Risk Response’ Wheel© Applicable to Storm & Flood Hazards
  5. 5. Improving Predictability and Readiness What is the Difference to the Common Approach?
  6. 6. Flood Severity Distribution Function • Potential annual loss-outcomes • The most probable loss is defined as the threshold event
  7. 7. Risk Management Dashboard
  8. 8. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction • Support of the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – Action 2: Identify, assess, monitor and mitigate disaster risks – Enhance early warning and preparation for the event and post-event recovery – Implementing the MRR approach also benefit the local communities by sharing highly reliable weather data and early warnings at no costs – Supports the commitment to corporate social responsibility and climate change impacts • Further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework – Research: Further calibration of modelling approach with back-testing – Education & Training: Education of personnel to implement emergency response plans and preparedness training
  9. 9. Thank you ! Information and Contact : www.meteoriskresponse.com info@meteoriskresponse.com:
  10. 10. Meteo Risk Response Deliverables • Site specific meteorological / hydrological models with information of wind, flood levels, frequency and historical data • Site assessment with clear description of loss scenarios, evaluation of exposure regarding frequency and severity, loss estimation, values at risk • Tailored risk treatment by elimination, reduction or prevention, with estimated implementation expenditure , pay-back period and reduction of cost of risks • Emergency response and alarm plans before and after corrective actions are implemented. Training & testing. • Weather station on-site providing regular, streaming weather data. • MRR / TERM software as a risk management platform to manage initiate alarms, notify pre-defined audiences, and to provide emergency response actions based on the alarm level and defined plans.
  11. 11. Benefits of the approach • Most advanced weather stations with hourly forecasting • A dynamic risk management software in a modern web-based solution, incl. incident & risk analytics, quantification of earnings at risk, risk indicator monitoring, alarm notification, emergency response plan, including activation and various modeling & reporting features • Loss forecasting and risk treatment of natural hazards by elimination or reduction of probabilities and/or severity of losses • Improved budget planning as well as optimization of reserves and insurance solutions regarding natural catastrophe impacts • Understanding of dependencies and supply chain vulnerabilities impacting the bottom line and cash flows
  12. 12. Benefits of the approach (cont.) • Facilitating the decision on risk appetite and risk tolerance levels • Improved reputation and meeting investors’, stakeholders’ and supply chain expectations regarding stable earnings, predictability and transparency by proactive Risk Management • Supports the commitment to corporate social responsibility and climate change impacts • For organizations with multiple sites a triage process will help to identify high risk locations to optimize efficiency of the MRR services with the aim to reduce overall cost.
  13. 13. On-site weather stations Following parameters are measured and transmitted every 10 minutes via GPRS/ SMS: - Temperature - Humidity - Wind speed - Wind gusts - Wind direction - Air pressure - Rainfall - Global irradiation
  14. 14. Modeling Approach Different mathematical meteorological and hydrological models for storm and water levels include: • Meteorological & hydrological* forecasting models for studies on precipitation and run-off processes • Hydrological and hydraulic reservoir inflow forecasting models • Hydrological and hydraulic river/channel models covering the area upstream • Models describing sediment transport in the catchment area * DHI (Danish Hydrological Institute) is our partner as world leading company in hydrological modeling
  15. 15. Analysing Cost / Benefit of Treatment
  16. 16. Online Emergency Response Plan
  17. 17. Natural Hazards Triage Process
  18. 18. Developing Site-specific Loss Scenarios
  19. 19. Approach for Triggering Warnings and Alerts