1.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
An Analysis of Perception to Natural
Disasters of the Elderly in Beijing
Shujuan Cui , Liang Cai , Ailun Guo , Jing’ai Wang
Beijing Normal University, China
29/8/2016
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2.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Outline
• Background
• Objective & Key questions
• Data & Method
• Results

3.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Background
• serious losses of natural disasters
• Ignorance of the human system
• perception impact on disaster reduction
• perception vary with each individual
• Selodom study of
difference among the elderly

4.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Objective & Key questions
• What indexes can be used to describe the perception?
• What demography characteristics can influence the
perception of the elderly? And how?
• What are the difference between the perception of the
elderly and the “real” situation?

5.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• Based on the literatures and complex network analysis, it can
be divided into to 2 categories:
• The indexes of perception (Data & Method 1-1)
• The indexes of demography characteristics (Data & Method 1-
2)
Data & Method 1：Indexes

6.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Index Question Option Value
Perception
describe
Perception
of disaster
types
1.Which disaster is
the most severe in
your area?
A earthquake B drought
C rainstorm and flood D sandstorm
E haze F others G none
7 kinds
Index of
perception
disaster
experience
2. Which disaster is
the most severe in
your experience?
A earthquake B drought
C rainstorm and flood D sandstorm
E haze F others G none
The times of the
disaster
experience
disaster
knowledge
3.Do you think it is
necessary to have
some material
preparation for
disasters?
A unnecessary B necessary but not
prepared C necessary
1,2,3
5. Do you have a
contingency plan for
disasters?
A no B yes 1,2
6. Which disaster
reduction activity
have you ever
participated in
your community?
A drill B reading the Bulletin board
C reading the leaflet D training and
lectures E none
ABCD +1
disaster
preparedness
7.What should you
do when
earthquake happen?
A run out B jump out the building
C hide on the balcony or by the window
D escape through elevator E hide in a
small space F hide in a trigonum
G others H. don’t know
AEF +1
BCDGH 0
8. What should you
do when flood
happen?
A transfer to higher places
B wait for rescue
C transfer through water D. others
E don’t know
AB +1
CDE 0
Index of
demography
location 9.Your home
location is？
Area1:1
Area2:2
age 10.Your age is? 60、61、62……
gender 11.Your gender is? A.male Bfemale 1，2
education 12.Your education
level is?
A. illiteracy B. primary school C. middle
school D. high school E. college and
higher level
1,2,3,4,5

7.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data & Method 1-1：Indexes
Tab.1 The indexes and code for perception
Tab.2 The correlation of the perception indexes
Index Code Indicator Code
Disaster
experience
E Disaster experience E
Disaster
preparedness
P
Material preparation 𝑃𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠
Emergency plans 𝑃𝑃𝑙𝑎𝑛
Activity participation 𝑃𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦
Disaster
knowledge
K
Knowledge of earthquake 𝐾 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑘𝑒
Knowledge of flood 𝐾𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑
E P K
E 1.000
P .015 1.000
K .049* .301** 1.000

8.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data & Method 1-1:Sampling method
• The sampling method is random sampling in the places where
there is lots of elderly people, such as the parks, the streets,
the supermarket and recreation center for the senior citizens.
The number of the sample is calculated as the formula.
n =
𝑍2 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
4𝑒2
• The confidence level is 95%, Z = 1.96, p = 0.5, e = 4%. 1235
effective questionnaires are obtained eventually.

9.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data & Method1-1： Study areas
Mountain areas
The plain areas
Town, village
Downtown area
Low-level of economic
High-level economic
Drought Flood …
Haze Flood …
Left-behind elderly people

10.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data & Method 1-2: Demography characteristics
Tab.3 The demography characteristics of respondents
Tab.4 The correlation of demography characteristics
Age 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 ≥85 Gender male female
318 238 267 197 164 39 595 531
Education illiteracy
primary
school
middle
school
high
school
college
or above
Location Area1 Area2
160 386 300 177 199 609 626
Age Location Gender Education
Age 1.000
Location -.279** 1.000
Gender .005 .016 1.000
Education -.023 -.434** .162** 1.000

11.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data & Method 2:Perception bias index
• Difference between perception and the real situation
• Q: Which disaster is the most severe in your area?
• Difference between the percentage of a certain disaster in a
group (result of the questionares) and the percentage of the
frequency in Beijing (statistics in record).
PER = (𝑋𝑖𝑗 − 𝑌𝑗)2
× 𝐖
𝑋𝑖𝑗: the percentage of disaster j in group I;
𝑌𝑗: the percentage of disaster j in Beijing;
W: the sequence of disaster frequency in Beijing.
W of Haze, rainstorm and flood, drought,
sandstorm and earthquake are 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 respectively.
Fig.2 The percentage of disasters frequency in Beijing

12.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Results 1-1: Disaster experience
Demograp
hy index
Group E
Range of
different group
Sig.
Location
Area1 0.194
0.115 0.000
Area2 0.309
Gender
Male 0.253
0.059 0.004
Female 0.279
Education
Illiteracy 0.235
0.075 0.000
Primary
school
0.295
Middle
school
0.266
High
school
0.286
Collage
or above
0.22
Age
60-64 0.307
0.108 0.000
65-69 0.263
70-74 0.251
75-79 0.202
≥80 0.199
Fig.3 The disaster experience index in different groups

13.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Results 1-2:Disaster preparedness
Demograp
hy index
group P
Range of
different group
Sig.
Location
Area1 0.768
0.108 0.000
Area2 0.660
Gender
Male 0.647
0.099 0.000
Female 0.746
Education
Illiteracy 0.471
0.389 0.000
Primary
school
0.615
Middle
school
0.711
High
school
0.860
Collage
or above
0.700
Age
60-64 0.758
0.181 0.000
65-69 0.702
70-74 0.721
75-79 0.662
≥80 0.576
Fig.3 The disaster preparedness index in different groups

14.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Results 1-3: Disaster knowledge
Demograp
hy index
group K
Rangeof
different group
Sig.
Location
Area1 0.336
0.009 0.669
Area2 0.332
Gender
Male 0.325
0.015 0.000
Female 0.341
Education
Illiteracy 0.275
0.116 0.000
Primary
school
0.306
Middle
school
0.361
High
school
0.390
Collage
or above
0.332
Age
60-64 0.348
0.082 0.000
65-69 0.337
70-74 0.328
75-79 0.318
≥80 0.265
Fig.3 The disaster knowledge index in different groups

15.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Demograph
y index
group
perception
bias index
Range of
different group
Location
Area1 0.587
0.128
Area2 0.715
Gender
Male 0.225
0.009
Female 0.234
Education
Illiteracy 0.721
0.525
Primary
school
0.369
Middle
school
0.277
High school 0.196
Collage or
above
0.519
Age
60-64 0.311
0.197
65-69 0.362
70-74 0.279
75-79 0.358
≥80 0.165
Fig.4 The perception
sequence of disasters
in different groups
Results 2: Perception bias index

16.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Brief Summary
• Three indexes to describe perception: E, P, K
• The influence of demography characteristics to perception
(E-location, age; P-education, age; K-education, age)
• perception bias
(education, age, location)
• Perception to different types of disaster
(haze, drought……influenced by demography characteristics)

17.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org