1. 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
26–30 August, 2012
Davos, Switzerland
A Disaster Management Framework
for Coping with Acts of Extreme
Violence in School Settings: A Field
Study
Camélia Dumitriu (Ph.D.) Dr. Carmen Aida Huţu
University of Quebec at Gheorghe Asachi Technical
Montreal (UQAM), Canada University (Iaşi), Romania
The present study is part of an interdisciplinary three-year research project (2008–2011) on crisis
management planning for coping with acts of extreme violence in schools, which was funded by the Social
Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC)

2. Agenda
1. School shootings: a social phenomenon
2. Research method, sample, and research framework
3. Findings
3.1 The ecological model : 110 events
■The school shooters. Who are they?
■ Why does it happen ?
■ Where do school shootings occur? Are some schools, communities and
countries more vulnerable to such events than others?
3.2. The “Pressure and Release” model (Blaikie et al., 1994) and the “Triangle of
Risk” model (Birkman, 2006) : 10 cases
■ Root causes and pre-exiting vulnerabilities
■ Dynamic pressures
■ Unsafe conditions
■ Coping with the event and its consequences
4.Integrate findings: the three stages of the “risk cycle” in school shooting
situations
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

3. School shootings: a social phenomenon
School violence - a “global phenomenon that affects one of the core institutions of modern
society […] in virtually all nation-states” (Akiba et al., 2002).
This social phenomenon, which seems to have its historical roots in North America, has
become contagious, spreading after 1990 to European countries; then to Latin America
countries, and; more recently, Asian countries.
(8)
Finland (3)
90s Germany (7)
8 Scotland
France (6)
(2) China (5)
(69)
After 2000
Brazil
(1)
(2)
Argentina
(1)
© Dumitriu, 2012 Number of school shooting events worldwide (1920-2012)

4. Number of school shooting events worldwide (1920-2012)
Timing 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 2000s 2010- Total
04.2012
Number of school 2 0 1 0 5 6 12 31 38 15 110
shooting events
worldwide
USA 1 1 2 4 9 22 22 8 69
Canada 2 1 4 1 8
Germany 1 1 5 7
France 1 3 2 6
Finland 1 2 3
Australia 1 1 2
Scotland 1 1 2
Netherlands 1 1 2
China 1 4 5
Taiwan 1 1
Japan 1 1
South Africa 1 1
Lithuania 1 1
Brazil 1 1
Argentina 1 1
Source: Dumitriu, 2012 Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

5. Could a school shooting event be considered a disaster ?
Disaster
A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving
widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which
exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own
resources (UNISDR, The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk
Reduction, 2009).
School shooting
A multiple-victim event and an act of extreme violence that is perpetrated on the
school’s premises, generally by a school-related perpetrator who carefully plans the
act in advance.
Human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts
Cost of the Virginia Tech event: $ 43.28 million (The Center for American Progress, 2012)
Earthquake and tsunami, Japan - estimated cost: $235 billion (World Bank; March 30, 2011)
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

6. Could a school shooting event be considered a disaster ?
■ Long-term impact of the school shootings
- Johann Gutenberg Gymnasium (Germany, 2002) lost one third of its teaching staff
during the shooting. (Jacob and Dumitriu, 2009).
-Dawson College (Canada, 2006; 10,000 students): four years later (2010), 50% of
students were still struggling with depression and/or had suicidal thoughts; 7% of them
suffered from PTSD. (Fernand-Seguin Research Centre and the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Canada)
-Islas Malvinas Middle School (Argentina, 2004): after the event, two years of total
anarchy (three successive management teams resigned and the school was placed
under the tutelage of the General Inspectorate of Education.).
■ The affected community is not able to cope with the event using its own
resources
-The Amish School (Lancaster county, USA, 2006): 69 fire companies from eight
counties; 100 state agencies and police officers; 20 ambulance crews; trauma centers
from four counties (Dumitriu, 2009).
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

7. Sample of Cases
Country/ date School & school enrollment Community & pop. The shooter
of event
USA (Co); Columbine High School (2,000) non-incorporated area Students (2); 18
April 20, 1999
USA (VA); Virginia Tech University (26,000) rural community; Student (Korean descent); 23
April 16, 2007 48,000
USA (PA); Oct. West Nickel Mines school (27) rural community; 4,000 Outsider with ties with the
2, 2006 Amish;32
Canada (QC); Dawson College (10,000) metropolitan area; 1.8 Outsider (ethnic minority family);
Sept. 13, 2006 M 25
Canada (QC); Concordia University( 40,000) metropolitan area; 1.8 Professor (Russian descent); 52
August 24, M
1992
Scotland; Dunblane Primary School (640) Small town; 7,900 Outsider with ties to the school ; 43
March 13, 1996
Australia; Oct. Monash Univ. (55,000) metropolitan area 4.1M Student (Chinese descent); 36
21, 2002
Germany; April Gutenberg Gymnasium (700) town; 207,000 Former student; 19
26, 2002
Germany; Nov. Geschwister Scholl (700) small town; 36,000 Former student; 18
20, 2006
Argentina; Sept. Islas Malvinas School (400 ) rural community; Student; 15
28, 2004 30,000
Source: Dumitriu, 2012
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

8. Research method
■ A qualitative research method : multiple case studies (Yin, 2003): ten
school shooting events
■ First, data were collected from the strategic plans of the ten schools at the
time of the event, from governmental reports of inquiries into these
events, police reports, newspaper articles and archival documents.
■ Then, field data were collected through semi- structured interviews and/or
focus groups ( 8/10 cases) with:
(a) relevant stakeholders who had been involved directly in managing these
crises (school administrators; senior officials of the Ministry of Education;
health professionals at various hospitals and members of the emergency
medical teams or law enforcement agencies, etc.), and;
(b) students, parents, relatives of some shooters and some of their former
friends
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

9. Research Framework
We used the “Pressure and Release” model (Blaikie et al., 1994) and the “Triangle of Risk”
model (Birkman, 2006).
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

10. Exposure to hazards. The ecological model
Society & Gov.
Structural issues - laws and regulations: gun policy (L/M); education law (Medium); “Violence is a
social policy (Medium)
"multiply
Community determined
School (High): (a) size, (b) rules and regulations, (c) culture,
(d) leadership style; and (e) parent-school relationship behavior" with
risk emanating
Relationship
Family: In most cases, normal and functional from a variety of
families, but frequent moves and/or immigration personal and
stress contextual
? Characteristics (‟pre-
disposing factors”):
domains.”
■ biological (High) (Boxer et al.,
■ psychological (Low) 2009, p. 425)
■ behavioral (Low)
Individual “No one factor is
decisive” but
Peer group: drugs (not an issue), alcohol (not an
issue), exposure to violent media (High) “no one factor is
completely
The larger community: (a) demographics (Low); (b) social issues without effect.”
(Low), and; (c) cultural issues (Medium).
(FBI, 1999)
Cultural issues (national culture characteristics: High): High Individualism and Low
Power Distance (Hofstede, 1980)
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

11. The school shooters. Who are they?
FBI (The Four-Pronged Assessment Model, 2004) : “ depressed adolescents with narcissistic
personality characteristics and other possible mental health problems, and ; substance abuse
disorders. ”
Our findings (based on 110 events)
Biological characteristics
?
■ Men; 15-19 and 40-50 years old
Psychological and behavioural characteristics
■ “ straight A student ” or, at least “ in good academic standing ”; “
hard-working person”
■ “pleasant guy”
■ “ shy ”(difficult relationships with girls; rejection); few friends.
■ “ talented”
Others
■ Medical records(mental illness) -very few cases (e.g., Virginia Tech)
■ Personality disorder (in some cases); the personality disorder was
diagnosed after the event
■ Police records: very few cases; instead, military aspirations but rejected
as “unfit” or; parents working for the Army/Navy/Marine Corps
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

12. The school shooters. Who are they?
The shooter Former Student Employee/ Teacher/ Outsider - Outsider- Total
student Former Professor/ school no ties to
employee School related the school
adms.
USA 14 41 2 3 3 9 72
Canada 5 1 1 1 8
Germany 4 1 2 7
France 2 4 6
Finland 3 3
Australia 1 1 2
Scotland 1 1 2
Netherlands 2 2
China 5 5
Taiwan 1 1
Japan 1 1
South Africa 1 1
Lithuania 2 2
Brazil 1 1
Argentina 1 1
Total 20 60 4 5 5 21 114
Source: Dumitriu, 2012 Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

13. Why does it happen ?
■ They
-think that they have a motive: in most cases, “ to get revenge” on some people
and/or institutions
- have a “ target ”
- carefully plan the attack
MOTIVE
■ Tenure dispute; “trauma of tenure denial” (Van Wormer, 2010)
■ Difficulties with the English language and; not able to cope with the academic
demands of the curriculum
■ Exclusion: expelled student
■ Bullying (teased/bullied; outcast) or academic mobbing
■ Perceived unfair treatment at school (unfair rules and regulations; unfair culture-
some student groups are privileged over the others; etc.)
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

14. Why does it happen ?

15. Where do school shootings occur? Are some schools and communities
more vulnerable to such events than others?
■ All schools are vulnerable to Schools Universities NA Total
such events. School size less 600- 1,001- 1,501- 2,501+ Small/Medium Large
[number of than 1,000 1,500 2,500 [less than [20,000+]
-Small isolated schools in a students] 600 20,000]
virtually closed community USA 21 16 8 8 1 1 11 3 69
(e.g., the Amish community of Canada 2 2 1 1 1 1 8
Lancaster County, Pa) Germany 2 3 1 1 7
France 4 2 6
- Large schools and universities
with their own campus police Finland 2 1 3
(e.g., Virginia Tech) and/or Australia 2 2
located in the heart of a major Scotland 1 1 2
city (Concordia University and Nederland 2 2
Dawson College in Montreal) China 5 5
■ Nevertheless, small and Taiwan 1 1
medium-sized middle schools Japan 1 1
in small rural and suburban South Africa 1 1
communities and large Lithuania 1 1
colleges and universities in Brazil 1 1
large multi-ethnic cities seem Argentina 1 1
to be more vulnerable.
Total number of 35 21 10 8 2 2 14 18 110
schools
© Dumitriu, 2012 Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

16. Where do school shootings occur? Are some countries and societies more
vulnerable to such events than others?
Gun culture: easy access to guns is an important factor in the increase in the homicide
rate, but low correlation with the school shooting events
Rank Average rate of civilian ownership
(guns per 100 people)
Argentina 62 10.2
Australia 42 15
Brazil 75 8
Canada 13 30.8
China 102 4.9
France 12 34
Finland 4 69
Germany 15 30.3
Lithuania 160 0.7
Japan 164 0.6
Netherlands 11 31.3
Scotland 93 5.5
South Africa 50 12.7
Taiwan 106 4.4
USA 1 88.8
Source: Small Arms Survey 2007. The largest civilian firearms arsenals for 178 countries
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

17. Where do school shootings occur? Are some countries and societies more
vulnerable to such events than others?
Strong correlation between national cultures (as defined by Hofstede, 2001) and school
shooting events
-low Power
Distance index
-high Individualism
index
© Dumitriu, 2012
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

18. Research Framework. Stage 2: Root Causes
√
Research Framework
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

19. Root causes and pre-exiting vulnerabilities
Vulnerability – an inherent state of a system (e.g., physical, technical, organizational,
cultural) that can be exploited to cause harm or damage (ANSI, 2010)
1. Some school policies and procedures proved in some respects
inappropriate for dealing with exceptional circumstances and/or
contributed, to a certain extent and in conjunction with other factors, to
triggering the shooting.
■the hiring, firing and promotion policies (e.g., Concordia university)
■ the research policy (e.g., Concordia University);
■ the student exclusion policy (e.g., Monash University; Gutenberg
Gymnasium)
■ the admission procedure (e.g., Virginia Tech; Gutenberg Gymnasium
and more broadly, the educational system in the state of Thuringia,
Germany).
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

20. Root causes and pre-exiting vulnerabilities
2. Lack of explicit rules and regulations to deal with:
- disruptive and violent behavior
- academic mobbing
- bullying
- discrimination
3. Lack of internal reporting mechanism to enable staff and students
to report threatening behaviour -nine types of warning signs;
(UNISDR, 2009: “Preparedness is based on a sound analysis of
disaster risks and good linkages with early warning systems”)

21. Root causes and pre-exiting vulnerabilities
Warning signs
■ SL: Suicide letter /intention;
■C: Written complaints
■ T: Explicit threats
■Planning the shooting well in advance: diary (D); written notes (WN)
“death list” (DL); website (W); videotapes sent to the media (VT)
■ Friends or relatives knew about his intentions (I)
■Sudden violent behavior, in school/mood swings (MS); violent writings-
student papers (VW); verbal violence (VV); cyber violence (CV)
■Legal procurement of guns- (LP); Illegal procurement of guns (IP); Family
gun (FG)
■Medical records (MR); Previous psychological assessment (PPA); Police
records (PR)
■Dressing and hobbies (DH)/ Goth culture; Pro-Nazi culture; heavy metal
music+ violent videogames (VV) etc.- more than the usual teenager
others
■Direct or indirect ties to: : Army/Navy/ Marine Corps/ other organization
with military ties (AN)
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

22. Internal reporting mechanism : nine types of warning signs
The School (SL) (C) (D) (I) (MS) (LP) (MR) (DH) (AN)
& (WN) (D) (VW) (PPA) (VV)
(T) (DL) (VV) (IP) (PR)
(W) (CV)
(VT) (FG)
Columbine High SL D; WN I VW IP PR DH AN
School DL; W PPA VV
West Nickel SL WN NA
Mines Amish
school
Virginia Tech SL WN; VT D VW LP MR DH
PR
Monash Univ. C DL LP
Islas Malvinas SL WN I FG PPA DH AN
Dunblane Primary C D MS LP PR AN
School
Concordia Univ. C I; D VV LP
&T
Dawson College SL W CV LP DH AN
VV
Johann Gutenberg VV LP
Gymnasium
Geschwister- SL W; DL CV IP PR DH AN
Scholl VV
© Dumitriu, Springer, 2012 Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

23. Dynamic Pressures
■Growth-related pressure points (aggressive growth strategy prior to the
shootings): Monash University, Concordia University, Columbine High School,
Virginia Tech.
■Competition-related pressure points : unrealistic competition-related goals
put high pressure on students and staff to perform better: Monash, Concordia,
Gutenberg Gymnasium
■Culture-related pressure points
- Authoritarian, individualistic and performance-driven organizational culture -
harsh discipline and lack of “school connectedness” as defined by Blum & Libbey
(2004): Monash University; Gutenberg Gymnasium; Islas Malvinas school.
- Permissive but “non supportive” culture and favouritism toward specific
categories of students: Columbine High School, 1999.
- Permissive and unethical culture : Mechanical Eng. Dept. at Concordia, 1992
- An organisational culture based on some very generous values but bounded by
religious restrictions (West Nickel Mines Amish school)
■Budget-related pressure points: Monash University, Concordia University
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

24. Unsafe conditions
■School location, size and type : small and medium-sized middle schools in
small rural and suburban communities and large colleges and universities in large
multi-ethnic cities seem to be more vulnerable to such events.
■Community and school demographics: not a significant factor
■ Some parts of the school building and its surroundings seem to be more
exposed than others: the main lobby, sports hall, cafeteria, library, and the
schoolyard
■ Other important safety issues
-door locks
-visitor sign-in policy
-student badges
- control access to the building
-ICT: some devices are necessary, while others are not; decision to be based on
cost efficiency estimates
-mental health service providers in school/associated to the school
-some specific safety issues have to be adapted to each school according to the
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

25. Research Framework. Stage 5: Capacity to cope with the event
√
√
√ √ √
Research Framework
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

26. Coping with the event and its consequences
The intervention stage: A stakeholder-based view
Source: adapted from World Resources Institute, Sustainable Enterprise Program, 2008
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

27. Coping with the event and its consequences
Preparedness action plan
a) Measures to speed up the evacuation process: a) school blueprints ; b) crisis
exercise
b) Measures to speed the victim identification process: accurate records for staff
and student identification and specific responsibilities for maintaining and
safeguarding student records, controlling access to the records, and providing
copies of the records.
c) Crisis communication process:
- communication with all stakeholders: list of stakeholders and their coordinates
- media communication and designated spokesperson
- crisis team and crisis center
- a meeting place should be chosen in advance and disclosed to students and
parents
- rumor control mechanism
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

28. School shootings and integrative risk management along the “risk
cycle” : prevention, intervention and recovery
- Our findings support the United Nations’ model of disaster risk reduction (2002; 2009)
- We have adapted this model for the school shootings situations.
Signal detection, prevention and Intervention
preparation: school administrators should a) measures to speed up the evacuation process:
a) carefully scrutinize five specific policies school blueprints and crisis exercise
from several perspectives, including that of b) measures to speed up the victim identification
hazards related to acts of extreme violence process: accurate records for staff and student
b) implement an internal reporting identification and specific responsibilities for
mechanism to enable staff and students to maintaining and safeguarding student records,
report threatening behaviour (nine types of controlling access to the records, and providing
warning signs) copies of the records.
c) identify school’s pressure points and assess c) crisis communication process: list of
the impact on students and staff (four stakeholders and their coordinates; media
categories of pressure points that are related to communication and designated spokesperson;
school shootings). crisis team and crisis center; meeting place;
d) prepare contingency plans rumor control; etc.
Recovery
a) conflict management; b) symbolic management; c) asset
management; d) change management; e) psychological
consequences; f) legal consequences; g) financial consequences; h)
lessons learned-getting feedback and finding ways to improve the
disaster risk management process
Dumitriu & Hutu, IDRC Davos, August 2012

29. Thank You !
29

30. Questions ?
30

31. REFERENCES
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