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Digital Re-print -
                         March | April 2013
 Global Feed Markets: March - April 2013

Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.
All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of
information published.
©Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form
or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872




                        www.gfmt.co.uk
GLOBAL
                                  GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
                                       Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
                                     world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
                                   commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
                                                  will influence your decision-making.




       Some analysts       Crop hopes should keep raw material
have forecast a 5%                   costs in check
decline in combined



                          H
                                       OPES of a major rebound from               raised its wheat use by 4m tonnes (to meet feed
 Russian/Ukrainian                     last season’s disappointing crop           shortages after its small maize crop) consumption
                                       performance put wheat prices under         elsewhere fell far more steeply, mainly in the EU,
      sunflowerseed                    further downward pressure for much         Russia and Ukraine. Their combined decline, mainly
                          of the period since our last review and helped          in feed use, resulted in world total consumption in
        sowings with      restrain frisky corn/soya prices too. On the            this sector dropping by almost 13m tonnes.
                          leading Chicago futures market, the bellwether             The other factor weighing on wheat prices
       Ukraine alone      soft red winter wheat contract fell at one stage        has been export competition, which has been
                          to as little as $247 per tonne for near delivery        sustained for far longer than many had expected at
 down 7-10%, after        compared with last July’s peak of about $347.50.        the start of this season when it was becoming clear
                          European soft milling wheat followed suit despite a     that ‘Black Sea’ harvests were going to disappoint
less land was freed       weak euro and rapidly disappearing supplies from        again. In the event, Russian exportable supplies are
                          last year’s smaller than expected crop, at one          thought to have collapsed by 11m tonnes while two
up for spring crops       stage reaching eight month lows of €232/tonne on        other key exporters, Argentina and Australia are
                          old-crop months. Traded prices on world export          also expected to each ship 4m tonnes less than
   by ‘winterkill’ of     markets also declined, soft milling wheats settling     in the previous season. But on the other hand,
                          about $20 either side of the $300/tonne level on        Indian exports are seen increasing by 7m on-year
autumn-sown grain         fob terms. For US soft red winter wheat that was        to a new record 10m tonnes versus zero normally.
                          about $60/80 cheaper than last summer’s peaks.          Canada’s sales are also seen rising by 1m, Europe’s
      crops. Ukraine         Two factors have driven wheat market weakness.       by 3m. At the same time, this season’s world import
                          One is the widespread idea that this year’s global      demand has dropped away by 12m tonnes, (after
farmers might also        crop might actually come close to the 2011 record       declines in Egypt, EU, Africa, Middle East), leaving
                          697m tonnes as output recovers in the former            exporters competing for shares of a smaller cake.
have been deterred        Soviet Union and Europe and increases in Canada         Interestingly, this has occurred despite constant
                          and Australia. That total may be a bit optimistic,      reports that wheat’s unusual discount to maize is
  by a 17% drop in        given the poor start to the US hard red winter          pushing the coarse grain out of Asian feed markets.
                          wheat crop and a number of weather issues in               Some analysts had expected wheat prices to firm
   last year’s yields     western Europe and Russia. Still, a healthy addition    up when Russian and Ukrainian supplies started
                          to next season’s wheat supplies is nonetheless          to dry up at the turn of the year. However, India,
        due to lack of    backed by bodies including the International Grains     burgeoning with record stocks and with another
                          Council, the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation         huge crop around the corner, then stepped up
          timely rains.   and the US Department of Agriculture (whose             as the cheapest export offer - but quickly found
                          unofficial forecasts have been among the highest).      itself still in a pricing (and quality) contest with US
                             That said, the view seems to be gaining hold         and European soft wheats too. Along with the
                          that next season’s world surplus stock of wheat         continued presence of Canada and Australia and
                          will not increase much as demand increases too.         – even yet - small volumes of wheat still trickling
                          But then, global stocks are hardly small to start       out of Russia and Kazakhstan, there has been no
                          with, having run close to the record 200m tonne         apparent shortage for importers wanting to take
                          level for the past three seasons and – even in his      advantage of the drop in wheat prices (up to 22%)
                          supposedly tighter year - still expected to finish at   from last summer’s highs.
                          a comfortable 178m. This relatively small decline          While there has been no real justification to
                          has been due to total wheat consumption falling         push prices up, US wheat futures markets have
                          this season by almost 25m tonnes. Although the US       gone firmer again in the past month. This is partly




44 | march - april 2013                                                                           Grain  &feed millinG technoloGy
medium of the digestive tract and sulphates
                                                                                                                                                        are attributed to a higher value than oxides.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          COMMODITIES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (degradation and damage of s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  dients such as vitamins or f
                                                                                                                                                        A product with very low solubility, for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   forming harmful free radicals
                                                                                                                                                        example, copper oxide, therefore should                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and reducing palatability of fe
                                                                                                                                                        not be used (any longer) in feeding livestock.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            al. 1998; Lu et al. 2010; Pang a




due to US exports finally picking up and              by the end of the
even starting to approach the needed pace             calendar year,
for the (recently reduced) official forecast          wheat demand
for the season. At the same time, maize has           and pricing
extended its unusual price premium to wheat           will clearly be                          Graph 1: Impact of various copper sources on the                G
on both the US futures and physical markets,          affected.                                concentration of vitamin E in feed (Lu et al. 2010)             so
leading to a steady surge in wheat orders                Like wheat,
from domestic feeders and even from the               maize is also
US ethanol industry (despite wheat’s lower            s e e ing lowe r
value in terms of starch/fuel production              world demand –               The good solubility of sulphates, however, 2006; Shurson et al. 2011).
canceling out much of the advantage of its            a 6.7% fall in this          provides us with the disadvantage that for       In contrast to inorganic, org
price discount v maize). However, possibly            season’s exports             example dissociated copper ions are very trace elements (trace element
some of those substituting wheat in this and          on the back of a 10% drop reactive (strong pro-oxidant that initiate and US crop has only just and abso
                                                                                   in consumption. A must also remember, the stable in the diet
other sectors may be using it as a bargaining         big US maize crop this summer will – provided and therefore promote animal conditions due to
                                                                                   speed up oxidation) begun sowing and, as recent wet is improved
tool to keep their maize costs under control.         world supplies keep at least adversetoo - result with feed components there remain a world
                                                                                   steady reactions have reminded traders, structure. Their advantage is
    Along with the higher exports this picture        in a lot more
of improving US wheat demand (although not            maize and less
yet proven in the official seasonal forecasts         wheat being
for US wheat usage) has begun to unsettle             fed there.
the speculative community. For some time,             Cheaper
funds and other ‘outside’ investors had built         prices should
up record large short (sold) positions on the         also boos t
futures markets, effectively betting on wheat         overall
prices falling further rather than rising. As         feedgrain use
these operators have been forced to cover             (The IGC sees
their exposure, that has injected a self-fuelling     barley output
element into the rally on the Chicago markets.        up 6% too).
In recent weeks, along with strong EU exports            At this stage
and a weak euro, the US trend has also spilled        – a US maize
some strength into the European wheat                 crop rebound               See our previous editions online for free
market and into international wheat export            is expected of
prices to a lesser extent (Paris milling wheat        at least 30 %
futures recently at six-week highs).                  from this year’s              May - June                 2012                                                                                                    March - April              2012                                                                                                    January - February         2012                                                                                                    November - December        2011                                                                                                    October                    2011




    However, this latest mini-rally would not         unusually low                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              •    Bulk storage &                                                                                                                •    African
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      In this issue:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      •     Mycotoxins
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       •    Producing Flaked                             In this issue:


have been possible without some help from             274m tonnes
                                                                                                           •    LC-MS/MS:                                                                                                                     •    Assessing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      handling                                                                                                                           advances
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            an overview
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            breakfast Cereals
                                                                                                                The New Reference                                                                                                                  cereal quality
                                                                                                                Method for Mycotoxin                                                                                                               parameters                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Animal feed milling                          •     Database for
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                                                                                                                Analysis                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 is one of the most                                 animal diet                                                                                                                        preparation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         buoyant activities in                              formulation                                                                                                                        of feeds and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   In this issue:                                                                        the agri related field                             techniques:                                                                                                                        forage for NIR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            A glance to last                                                                                                                   analysis



a relatively firm maize market, the latter            to around
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underpinned by an ever tightening supply              360/370m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Recent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      farm to fork                                                                                                                       measurement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            advances in                                                                                                                        defects annually
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after last year’s short US crop. As the IGC           tonnes. Thatv
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         plant                                                                                                                                                                                 as corn crop
                                                                                                                                                                   for UK                                                                                                                             grain & feed
                                                                                                                                                                   co-operative                                                                                                                       markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  shrinks



                                                                                    A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891                                   A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891                                   A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891                                   A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891                                   A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891




reminded markets this past month, it is not           will not only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GFMT12.01.indd 1                                                                                                02/02/2012 10:12   GFMT11.06.indd 1                                                                                                30/11/2011 17:28   GFMT11.05.indd 1                                                                                                05/10/2011 09:49
                                                                       GFMT12.03.indd 1                                                                                                22/06/2012 08:48   GFMT12.02.indd 1                                                                                                17/04/2012 13:05




only US stocks of maize that will finish 2012/13      boost demand
at unusually low levels. World stocks are also
expected to fall to a 16-year low. However,
                                                      but replenish
                                                      US s tock s,
                                                                                          www.gfmt.co.uk/archive.php                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8
if all goes well with the coming US and other         helping to                                                                                               Ba
world crops of maize, that inventory could be         keep forward                        Are you social?
back to an eight-year high by September 2014.         maize prices                        Keep up to date with us in-between issues by
    All this, of course, has implications for wheat   down through                        following us on any of our social platforms
demand and value. If maize prices do shift, as        the coming
futures promise, from their current modest            season.
                                                                                          Take a look at our newly re-vamped Facebook page,
                                                                                          that now covers updates from GFMT as well as all of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    w
premium over wheat to a steep 24% discount            However, we                         the very best of The Global Miller’s news
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    http://www.facebook.com/GrainFeedMillingTechnology                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Confe
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Grain  &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                                                           Grain                                            &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      march - april 2013 | 45
of weather possibilities to get                                                                                          US wheat market currently
through yet.                                                                                                             look too high – especially
                                                                                                                         against maize which is now
Wheat – export                                                                                                           heavily discounted for last
                                                                                                                         quarter 2013 against the
competition may                                                                                                          spot market and at a huge

keep prices down                                                                                                         discount to forward wheat
                                                                                                                         prices too. European
   The biggest single factor                                                                                             wheat markets in contrast,
affecting medium/long-term                                                                                               are heavily discounted on
wheat costs in the months                                                                                                new crop, Paris milling
ahead will by the success                                                                                                wheat futures 10% to 12%
or otherwise of ‘Black Sea’                                                                                              below current crop prices,
(CIS) attempts to recover                                                                                                mainly on the assumption
production from last year’s                                                                                              that domestic wheat crops
disappointing , dr ought-                                                                                                will increase this summer.
hit levels. Russia has had                                                                                                  In conclusion, amid higher
one or two problems with                                                                                                 global output, increased
winterkill and dryness in its                                                                                            export competition, limited
key southern (export supply                                                                                              import recovery prospects
catchment) area and officials                                                                                            and less pressure to feed
are currently talking a wide                                                                                             wheat instead of maize,
crop range of 40/50m tonnes                                                                                              the European market’s
(probably near the median                                                                                                prospect of cheaper wheat
45m) compared with last year’s 37.7m and           figure could go up too. Kazakhstan should          costs ahead starts to look more realistic than
2011’s bumper 56.2m tones. A few years             also see some comeback in wheat output             the picture painted by US futures.
earlier, Russia was producing over 60m so          after drought cut last year’s crop from 22.7m
this year’s crop would hardly be a banner
one. Russian stocks will also be very low by
                                                   to 9.8m tonnes and exports from 11m to 6.5m.
                                                      If the Black Sea crops do come back
                                                                                                      KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
the end of this season and officials have talked   as planned, they will be up against more           AHEAD – WHEAT
about giving priority to rebuilding these before   competition for world import trade – from
embarking on any aggressive export campaign.       India (maybe another 10m tonnes of unusual         • The extent of European and Black Sea crop
Even so, some Russian exporters have already       expor ts) and from expected bigger EU,               rebounds from last year’s disappointing
started selling some of the new crop forward       Canadian and Australian crops, with the usual        levels
as cheaply as $265/275/tonne fob terms – a         caveat of normal weather permitting across         • Spring, summer and harvest weather in the
massive discount to domestic old crop costs.       the board. The main exception is the world’s         northern hemisphere
This strategy may also risk exporters have to      largest wheat exporter, the USA, where             • The extent to which wheat use in feeds is
compete with the government when they              drought has diminished prospects for its hard        reduced if maize crops recover as planned
come to source the sold grain as officials want    red winter crop – its biggest (and therefore
to prioritise rebuilding depleted intervention
stocks and are reportedly also planning to offer
                                                   the world’s) single country export component.
                                                   However, even that crop is improving with
                                                                                                      Maize –season of plenty
prices equivalent to $250/290/tonne. That          recent rain and snow. With old crop HRW            ahead?
said, the Russians have historically gone for      exports running lower on lack of demand and
the early season import trade and they have        comfortable stocks of this class and wheat in         Crosscurrents have continued to tug at
a ‘reliable supplier’ reputation to rebuild for    total likely to be carried into 2012/13, the US    maize prices, restraining the price advance
their future trade expansion plans (see GFMT’s     should still be able to export freely.             to about 6.5% compared with the near 10%
passim) so their early, active presence can’t be      Will world wheat trade recover from this        added to wheat’s February lows. The main
ruled out. Last year’s Russian exports more        season’s 12m tonne drop? There are no              factor on the upside has been that spectre of
than halved to 10.5m tonnes but the coming         obvious contenders yet to boost the figure         low end-season stocks, especially after USDA
season could see a rebound to maybe 14-15m         in the import side and the top buyer Egypt         recently added 2.5m tonnes to its US feed
tonnes. There have been a few 20m forecasts        has run out of trade finance and is cutting back   use forecast. There have also been reports of
which, given perfect summer weather, can’t         sharply on purchases. Will as much wheat be        recovering demand from the US corn ethanol
be ruled out.                                      fed to livestock in the US, Asia feed markets      sector (40% of US maize disappearance). This
   Ukraine has had an exceptionally kind winter    etc? Probably not, if corn production rebounds     has all made farmers cautious about parting
with little frost damage and most of its wheat     as much as forecast, returning to its usual        with their remaining old crop stocks, expecting
crop is in good condition. There has even          discount versus wheat. However, countries          to get higher prices for as these as supplies
been talk of the total (winter abnd spring)        which normally use a lot of wheat in feeds         dwindle in last quarter 2012/13 (Jun/Aug). This
crop reaching a record 21m tonnes versus           – but had to cut use during the past tight/        strategy is not without risk, though, as the US
last year’s 15.5m and the 2011 record 18.8m.       expensive season (especially Europe and the        futures markets say maize will be cheaper
Ukraine has also got off to a flying start with    CIS) may use more as supplies rebound and          by well over $1/bushel (about $47/tonne or
its spring plantings and looks likely to have      prices come down.                                  16.6%) from July to September, dropping by
another huge maize crop which will reduce             Overall, the outlook is for adequate wheat      another 5% by December.
wheat feeding and leave more for export. At        supplies. Barring several severe weather upsets       At the same time, competition for maize
this stage, traders are talking 8m to 9m tonnes    (realistically there are always one or two),       import business on international markets is
of exports versus this year’s 6.,5/7m but that     the forward new crop prices quoted on the          heating up to an almost unprecedented degree.


46 | march - april 2013                                                                                       Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
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COMMODITIES
                                                                                 FEATURE                                                                                           FEATURE

 s being applicable to a wide includes the fully auditable dry steam belt
                                 Grain chilling in a flat-                                Warehouse grain                        Refrigeration of a                          Grain chilling in a
  k settings, steam can be used sanitation silo (BSU) which cleans conveyor chilling
                                        bottom metal unit                                                                                 hopper silo                                concrete silo
e innumerable cleaning tasks. belts to allergen level, saving up to 3 million corn as usual in 2012, is now
  an be used on feeding, mixing litres of water per annum.                                              expected export in 2012/13 weather. The Commissions crop forecasting
   vessels, machinery, conveyor                     The organisation has also developed a close to last season’s record unit MARS recently forecast yields rebounding
 pipelines and also general floor central steam system for food production 15m tonnes exports. The by almost 17% which would add at least 9m
e spaces and much more. As and packaging areas. This is much like a competition has been tonnes to this year’s production.
    to the surface, dry steam central vacuum, which facilitates cleaning undercutting US maize

h
    little         residue and can by simply plugging the steam hoses into by as much as $20/30 per
                      dry, especially central steam pipes without the need for tonne, resulting in constant
                                                                                                                                            KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
                          compared               handling cleaning machines. The sophisti- downgrades to USDA’s                             AHEAD – MAIZE
                                                       cated equipment can be used for the seasonal export forecast
                                                         cleaning of heavy parts and for plastic for this grain. At 22.5m • US maize planted area and growing weather
                                                           parts cleaning. The machines start tonnes this will be the                            will decide if US/world stocks return to
                                                            from a 3kW single phase unit and lowest on modern record                             ‘normal’ levels, prices fall as futures forecast
                                                                 reach up to 144kW All ofavail- – less than a aquarter of •and grain storage facilities can all benefit of
                             To reduce insect infestation, a common                      units these benefits give very quick                    Rising global export competition for the
                        practice is the use of fumigation. The chemi-in electric, oil or world maize trade against
                                                                         able       payback of the capital investment in the our technology. America, CIS countries
                                                                                                                                                 USA from Latin
                        cal products used have to expertly and care- gas heated typicallywell over halfone or two
                                                                                    chillers, coils.      achieved in normally.                  and India may contribute to cheaper maize
                                                                                                                                                   Consergra is pioneer in the applica-
                        fully managed, for safety reasons. And do not years.                            With the full brunt of Lat-            tion ofahead aeration in many products.
                                                                                                                                                 costs chilled
                        decrease grain temperature.                                     Our system isAm harvests yet to silos •Throughout the years, we have gained
                                                                                                          suitable to be used in be              Will Europe’s own maize crop rebound,
                                                                                    (made of metal or concrete, flat bottom or lots of supplies here? the bulk preserva-
                                                                                                        marketed, their dominance                easing experience in
                        The Conserfrio® system                                      conical bottom) is likely to remain – at least •tion corn consumption for ethanol rice in to
                                                                                                         and warehouses, not need-               US of products such as paddy seems all
                             The Conserfrio system can be used ing additional civil works.
                                                    ®                                                   until the The cooling units its varieties up again and could be a mildly
                                                                                                                     next US crop                be picking and lengths, cargo rice, milled
                                                                                                        proves its forecast recovery
                                                                                    need only electrical energy.                                 bullish factor for prices
                                                                                                                                               rice, maize, wheat, barley, sunflower seeds,
dditional                                                                               The chiller replaces the fan. The chilled, •cotton seeds, beans, demand and its maize
                                                                                                        and can then be offered at               China’s growing feed soybeans and green
  e required in Thanks to a vast improvement in weather over                                            those into the silo through coffee beansitto name or expand in 2013/14,
                                                                                    dry air is introduced      much cheaper prices               deficit – will stabilize but a few.
   improve cleaning quarter 2013, Latin American maize crops indicated by the futures markets.
                    first                                                           existing ducts.                                              demanding more from the world market?
                                                                                                                                                   In benefit of the human and animal health
 icient cleaning are now expected to reach record levels.
                    capacity                                                         Even warehouses, the chilled air mayyet •and of the environment asto buygrains any
                                                                                        In then, the US could be facing be                       Speculators’ enthusiasm well, into and
  from the steam pressure up from 21m to 25/26m, Brazil’s another year through ducts placed under or seeds must be problems treated as food.
                    Argentina’s is                                                  introduced of increased competition from                     crop weather responsibly
e surface to be cleaned to perhaps 76m. Between them the Ukraine which expects to harvest about
                    from 73m and                                                    over floor. In both cases a ducting system                   Proteins/oilmeals - demand to mop up
 ower of micro they couldaexport 45/47m tonnes compared 21m tonnes again this year. The EU’s own extra soya?
                      drops at high                                                 must be previously installed.                              More inforMation:
                    with 15/25m normally. Ukraine, which for the maize crop – which fell 11.5m tonnes last year
  with minimal moisture present.                                                                                                                 The oilmeal sector also remains promising
                                                                                                                                                  Website: www.consergra.com
                    second year running, produced twice as much – Conclusion sharply with more normal for cheaper costs ahead. Improved weather is
                                                                                     could also rise
cific                                                                                   The system
  ca-                                                                               has        demon-
and
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  for                   independently of ambient weather con- granulates dur-
  hin                   ditions. Even under rain or fog there’s ing storage. A                                   Learn problem-solving skills for better technical and economic
  pli-                  no risk of rewetting the grain. Our low storing tem-                                     considerations at your mill. In addition to lecture and discussions,
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 uld                    stant conditions under which the grainfrom their reduces
                          World grain and oilseed prices have retreated             only                         milling exercises.
  th-                   storage issupplies natural, safe and profit the product vital
                          highs, but easy, remain tight following last year’s poor
   of                                                                                                                   IAOM Fundamentals of Milling I | Sept. 30-Oct. 4
                        earning. in key exporting countries. While South American
                          harvests                                                  metabolic activ-             Hands-on technical training course on general flour milling
gre-                      crops look set toturningnew recordsto cool it drought also most
                             Practices like break the grain this season, ity but                                 plant operations.
                        have weak success and wasteconcern,energy, of the troubles
                          conditions in the US remain a lots of and a recovery in
                          demand will keep supplies under pressure.                                                      IAOM Fundamentals of Milling II | October 7-11
                        also breaking some percentage of grains.                    of a storing
                          With renewed price volatility, biofuel mandates have come control.
                             There are many direct savings and ben- without                                      Technical and economic analytical tools for milling process
                          under intense scrutiny, and the potential for policy-driven
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                        The most important are:
                          again, are an enduring market concern.                    of chilled aera-
ns                                                                                                                        Course Fees: Member - €1,900 Non-member - € 2,000
                          • Avoiding fumigation means cost savings                  tion are from                The course fees cover tuition, laboratory fees, books, special instruction, materials,
 ch-                      The IGC Grains Conference brings togethersmall farms with
                          • Less weight loss, in other words higher                  key
                                                                                                                 public transport pass, and lunch on class days. Fees do not include lodging and
 rey                      decision makers, industry representatives and other
                             product output at the end of storage                   as little as 100             evening meals. Fee covers one week of instruction.
 has                      stakeholders to discuss the latest developments in
                             time and oilseed markets together withton storage up
                          the grain                                                  the
    is                    • Higher product quality means a higher                   to large plants
                          policy challenges they present.
     a                       selling price                                          with        storing
 dry                      • Higher head grains after the milling                    capacities        of
 nes                         process. This point is especially                      around 100,000,
 ent                         important in the rice industry                         500,000 or even



                 www.igc.int
                          • Energy savings in the drying process. It                1,000,000 mt.
 any                         is possible and safe to store product
                for information about IGC visit:
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eri-                         with a higher moisture content if grain                flour mills, feed
ting                         temperature is low. A drying-cooling                   mills,      malting
                  for event specific information visit:
  am                         combination achieves relevant energy                   plants, oilseed
This             www.igc.int/en/conference/confhome.aspx plants
                             savings.                                               crushing                                                      www.iaom.info/education
                             &
                             &
                      Grain feed millinG technoloGy
                      Grain feed millinG technoloGy                      march - april 2013 | 11                                                                          march - april 2013 | 47
                                                                                                                                                                          march - april 2013 | 37
helping record Latin American crop forecast        deterred by a 17% drop in last year’s yields      yield a record crop on the planned area.
  materialize and, if the US sows as much as         due to lack of timely rains. EU sunflower         Down under, Australian rapeseed output
  most analysts expect – and gets more normal        output is meanwhile forecast by French            was recently forecast to increase from last
  weather/yields this year – supplies will be more   analyst Strategie Grains to rise by over 11%      year’s 3.64m to about 3.5/3.7m tonnes, some
  than adequate in 2013/14.                          to 7.8m tonnes but stocks of sunflowerseed        estimates even approaching 4m which would
     Some question marks remain over 2013            in EU and global terms will be unusually low at   be welcomed by impor ters. With world
  crops of other key oilseeds like sunflowers        the start of next season, so domestic supplies    stocks at a nine-year low, bigger rapeseed
  and rapeseed. However, the sheer size of the       may still need a bigger top up than this from     crops are needed this year to avoid short
  increase in soya supplies should be enough         imports.                                          supplies towards the close of next season
  to push up world total oilseed production             European rapeseed crop prospects are           although rapeseed meal, as noted above,
  by some 26m tonnes or about 6% . All               mixed as northwest France and the UK had far      will have to continue pricing at a discount to
  these alternative oilmeals, of course, cannot      too much rain, waterlogging, intermittent mild    what it is hoped will be relatively abyndant
  divorce their pricing from the market leader       weather and freezing blasts. Some reports         soya meal.
  soya meal – accounting for 55% of total meal       suggest 20% or more UK winter sowings
  output and with its higher protein content,
  the most valuable meal too. Currently the
                                                     could fail. However, Germany, Denmark and
                                                     some eastern states are looking better than
                                                                                                       KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
  futures markets are predicting US soya meal        last year with less frost damage, so the total    AHEAD – OILMEALS/PROTEINS
  prices will be over 15% cheaper by last quarter    EU figure could yet increase within a range
  2013 although, if all the US production comes      of 18.5/20.5m tonnes. Like sunflowerseed,         • US spring soyabean planting and growing
  through, that may considerably understate the      rapeseed has drawn stocks to very low levels        weather
  potential decline in costs in this sector.         in EU and global terms so supplies are unlikely   • South America’s delayed marketing of a
                                                     to be loose next season. On the bright side,        record crop – more competition ahead
  Sunflower/rapeseed prospects                       Ukrainian crop prospects are much better
                                                     than last year’s so more could be exported
                                                                                                         for the USA’s peak, post-harvest marketing
                                                                                                         period and further downward pressure on
     Some analysts have forecast a 5% decline in     from this frequent EU supplier. The largest         soya costs?
  combined Russian/Ukrainian sunflowerseed           exporter, Canada expects to sow less canola       • Chinese demand for soya meal – is it starting
  sowings with Ukraine alone down 7-10% ,            as farmers shift to wheat but, providing this       to peak or just pausing for breath?
  after less land was freed up for spring crops      year’s slow snow melt doesn’t hold up sowing,     • EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflowerseed and
  by ‘winterkill’ of autumn-sown grain crops.        a return from last year’s weather-hit yields        Canadian canola plantings - and their crop
  Ukraine farmers might also have been               (they fell 20%!) to normal levels could yet         weather




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48 | march - april 2013                                                                                      Grain   &feed millinG technoloGy
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 Content from the magazine is available to view free-of-charge, both as a full
                                                                                 LINKS
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                                                                                                                 March - April 2013




                    first published in 1891
                                                                                                                                      •	 See the full issue
                                                                                      In this issue:
                                      •       Additives for flour
                                              standardisation
                                              Part I: Enzymes
                                                                                       •    Measures for
                                                                                            increasing
                                                                                            the energy
                                                                                                                                      •	   Visit the GFMT website
                                                                                            efficiency of
                                                                                            UFA feed
                                                                                            mills in
                                                                                            Switzerland
                                      •
                                                                                                                                      •	   Contact the GFMT Team
                                              Fine grinding and
                                              BS3 Xylanase                             •    Importance
                                              improve                                       of trace
                                              productivity in                               minerals
                                              weaners                                       for nutrient
                                                                                            stability in
                                                                                            feed

                                      •       Super                                    •    Managing mill



                                                                                                                                      •	   Subscribe to GFMT
                                              chilled                                       maintenance
                                              grains                                        - Maintenance
                                                                                            options and
                                                                                            challenges




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Global Feed Markets: March - April 2013

  • 1. Digital Re-print - March | April 2013 Global Feed Markets: March - April 2013 Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom. All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. ©Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872 www.gfmt.co.uk
  • 2.
  • 3. GLOBAL GRAIN & FEED MARKETS Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of commodities used in food and feed production. His observations will influence your decision-making. Some analysts Crop hopes should keep raw material have forecast a 5% costs in check decline in combined H OPES of a major rebound from raised its wheat use by 4m tonnes (to meet feed Russian/Ukrainian last season’s disappointing crop shortages after its small maize crop) consumption performance put wheat prices under elsewhere fell far more steeply, mainly in the EU, sunflowerseed further downward pressure for much Russia and Ukraine. Their combined decline, mainly of the period since our last review and helped in feed use, resulted in world total consumption in sowings with restrain frisky corn/soya prices too. On the this sector dropping by almost 13m tonnes. leading Chicago futures market, the bellwether The other factor weighing on wheat prices Ukraine alone soft red winter wheat contract fell at one stage has been export competition, which has been to as little as $247 per tonne for near delivery sustained for far longer than many had expected at down 7-10%, after compared with last July’s peak of about $347.50. the start of this season when it was becoming clear European soft milling wheat followed suit despite a that ‘Black Sea’ harvests were going to disappoint less land was freed weak euro and rapidly disappearing supplies from again. In the event, Russian exportable supplies are last year’s smaller than expected crop, at one thought to have collapsed by 11m tonnes while two up for spring crops stage reaching eight month lows of €232/tonne on other key exporters, Argentina and Australia are old-crop months. Traded prices on world export also expected to each ship 4m tonnes less than by ‘winterkill’ of markets also declined, soft milling wheats settling in the previous season. But on the other hand, about $20 either side of the $300/tonne level on Indian exports are seen increasing by 7m on-year autumn-sown grain fob terms. For US soft red winter wheat that was to a new record 10m tonnes versus zero normally. about $60/80 cheaper than last summer’s peaks. Canada’s sales are also seen rising by 1m, Europe’s crops. Ukraine Two factors have driven wheat market weakness. by 3m. At the same time, this season’s world import One is the widespread idea that this year’s global demand has dropped away by 12m tonnes, (after farmers might also crop might actually come close to the 2011 record declines in Egypt, EU, Africa, Middle East), leaving 697m tonnes as output recovers in the former exporters competing for shares of a smaller cake. have been deterred Soviet Union and Europe and increases in Canada Interestingly, this has occurred despite constant and Australia. That total may be a bit optimistic, reports that wheat’s unusual discount to maize is by a 17% drop in given the poor start to the US hard red winter pushing the coarse grain out of Asian feed markets. wheat crop and a number of weather issues in Some analysts had expected wheat prices to firm last year’s yields western Europe and Russia. Still, a healthy addition up when Russian and Ukrainian supplies started to next season’s wheat supplies is nonetheless to dry up at the turn of the year. However, India, due to lack of backed by bodies including the International Grains burgeoning with record stocks and with another Council, the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation huge crop around the corner, then stepped up timely rains. and the US Department of Agriculture (whose as the cheapest export offer - but quickly found unofficial forecasts have been among the highest). itself still in a pricing (and quality) contest with US That said, the view seems to be gaining hold and European soft wheats too. Along with the that next season’s world surplus stock of wheat continued presence of Canada and Australia and will not increase much as demand increases too. – even yet - small volumes of wheat still trickling But then, global stocks are hardly small to start out of Russia and Kazakhstan, there has been no with, having run close to the record 200m tonne apparent shortage for importers wanting to take level for the past three seasons and – even in his advantage of the drop in wheat prices (up to 22%) supposedly tighter year - still expected to finish at from last summer’s highs. a comfortable 178m. This relatively small decline While there has been no real justification to has been due to total wheat consumption falling push prices up, US wheat futures markets have this season by almost 25m tonnes. Although the US gone firmer again in the past month. This is partly 44 | march - april 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
  • 4. medium of the digestive tract and sulphates are attributed to a higher value than oxides. COMMODITIES (degradation and damage of s dients such as vitamins or f A product with very low solubility, for forming harmful free radicals example, copper oxide, therefore should and reducing palatability of fe not be used (any longer) in feeding livestock. al. 1998; Lu et al. 2010; Pang a due to US exports finally picking up and by the end of the even starting to approach the needed pace calendar year, for the (recently reduced) official forecast wheat demand for the season. At the same time, maize has and pricing extended its unusual price premium to wheat will clearly be Graph 1: Impact of various copper sources on the G on both the US futures and physical markets, affected. concentration of vitamin E in feed (Lu et al. 2010) so leading to a steady surge in wheat orders Like wheat, from domestic feeders and even from the maize is also US ethanol industry (despite wheat’s lower s e e ing lowe r value in terms of starch/fuel production world demand – The good solubility of sulphates, however, 2006; Shurson et al. 2011). canceling out much of the advantage of its a 6.7% fall in this provides us with the disadvantage that for In contrast to inorganic, org price discount v maize). However, possibly season’s exports example dissociated copper ions are very trace elements (trace element some of those substituting wheat in this and on the back of a 10% drop reactive (strong pro-oxidant that initiate and US crop has only just and abso in consumption. A must also remember, the stable in the diet other sectors may be using it as a bargaining big US maize crop this summer will – provided and therefore promote animal conditions due to speed up oxidation) begun sowing and, as recent wet is improved tool to keep their maize costs under control. world supplies keep at least adversetoo - result with feed components there remain a world steady reactions have reminded traders, structure. Their advantage is Along with the higher exports this picture in a lot more of improving US wheat demand (although not maize and less yet proven in the official seasonal forecasts wheat being for US wheat usage) has begun to unsettle fed there. the speculative community. For some time, Cheaper funds and other ‘outside’ investors had built prices should up record large short (sold) positions on the also boos t futures markets, effectively betting on wheat overall prices falling further rather than rising. As feedgrain use these operators have been forced to cover (The IGC sees their exposure, that has injected a self-fuelling barley output element into the rally on the Chicago markets. up 6% too). In recent weeks, along with strong EU exports At this stage and a weak euro, the US trend has also spilled – a US maize some strength into the European wheat crop rebound See our previous editions online for free market and into international wheat export is expected of prices to a lesser extent (Paris milling wheat at least 30 % futures recently at six-week highs). from this year’s May - June 2012 March - April 2012 January - February 2012 November - December 2011 October 2011 However, this latest mini-rally would not unusually low • Bulk storage & • African In this issue: • Mycotoxins • Producing Flaked In this issue: have been possible without some help from 274m tonnes • LC-MS/MS: • Assessing handling advances an overview breakfast Cereals The New Reference cereal quality Method for Mycotoxin parameters Animal feed milling • Database for • Sample Analysis is one of the most animal diet preparation buoyant activities in formulation of feeds and In this issue: the agri related field techniques: forage for NIR A glance to last analysis a relatively firm maize market, the latter to around • Mould control • Grinding by a proven • Efficiency • Increasing • Get in line decade • Milling Technology Energy saving in flour milling storage Process analysis solutions open Redefined in grain and feed preservation concept makes your capacity new opportunities for improved • Food safety • 15-Year In this issue: choice simple In this issue: profit and quality in the grain Celebration: • Digital milling Fortifying with microwave industry • NIR in • Improving moisture folic acid prevents practice supply from • 22,000 birth underpinned by an ever tightening supply 360/370m Recent farm to fork measurement advances in defects annually • Rice and • Preservatives • Optical sorting • Direct Cold Plasma: • Fast, reliable contract • Controlling Insects • Victam Asia Preservatives are a recurring • Global grain & Optical sorting has come of rapid grain • Global Feed and flexible: with heat feed markets testing The innovative answer to odour terms Product topic in public discussions age and should be considered control in the food and feed Markets: the world of modern bulk Showcase as a serious option for inclusion Wheat supply weighing • New weighing in any modern wheat cleaning industry grows and grows software • Global after last year’s short US crop. As the IGC tonnes. Thatv plant as corn crop for UK grain & feed co-operative markets shrinks A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 reminded markets this past month, it is not will not only GFMT12.01.indd 1 02/02/2012 10:12 GFMT11.06.indd 1 30/11/2011 17:28 GFMT11.05.indd 1 05/10/2011 09:49 GFMT12.03.indd 1 22/06/2012 08:48 GFMT12.02.indd 1 17/04/2012 13:05 only US stocks of maize that will finish 2012/13 boost demand at unusually low levels. World stocks are also expected to fall to a 16-year low. However, but replenish US s tock s, www.gfmt.co.uk/archive.php 8 if all goes well with the coming US and other helping to Ba world crops of maize, that inventory could be keep forward Are you social? back to an eight-year high by September 2014. maize prices Keep up to date with us in-between issues by All this, of course, has implications for wheat down through following us on any of our social platforms demand and value. If maize prices do shift, as the coming futures promise, from their current modest season. Take a look at our newly re-vamped Facebook page, that now covers updates from GFMT as well as all of w premium over wheat to a steep 24% discount However, we the very best of The Global Miller’s news http://www.facebook.com/GrainFeedMillingTechnology Confe GRAP GRAPAS_Advert Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2013 | 45
  • 5. of weather possibilities to get US wheat market currently through yet. look too high – especially against maize which is now Wheat – export heavily discounted for last quarter 2013 against the competition may spot market and at a huge keep prices down discount to forward wheat prices too. European The biggest single factor wheat markets in contrast, affecting medium/long-term are heavily discounted on wheat costs in the months new crop, Paris milling ahead will by the success wheat futures 10% to 12% or otherwise of ‘Black Sea’ below current crop prices, (CIS) attempts to recover mainly on the assumption production from last year’s that domestic wheat crops disappointing , dr ought- will increase this summer. hit levels. Russia has had In conclusion, amid higher one or two problems with global output, increased winterkill and dryness in its export competition, limited key southern (export supply import recovery prospects catchment) area and officials and less pressure to feed are currently talking a wide wheat instead of maize, crop range of 40/50m tonnes the European market’s (probably near the median prospect of cheaper wheat 45m) compared with last year’s 37.7m and figure could go up too. Kazakhstan should costs ahead starts to look more realistic than 2011’s bumper 56.2m tones. A few years also see some comeback in wheat output the picture painted by US futures. earlier, Russia was producing over 60m so after drought cut last year’s crop from 22.7m this year’s crop would hardly be a banner one. Russian stocks will also be very low by to 9.8m tonnes and exports from 11m to 6.5m. If the Black Sea crops do come back KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS the end of this season and officials have talked as planned, they will be up against more AHEAD – WHEAT about giving priority to rebuilding these before competition for world import trade – from embarking on any aggressive export campaign. India (maybe another 10m tonnes of unusual • The extent of European and Black Sea crop Even so, some Russian exporters have already expor ts) and from expected bigger EU, rebounds from last year’s disappointing started selling some of the new crop forward Canadian and Australian crops, with the usual levels as cheaply as $265/275/tonne fob terms – a caveat of normal weather permitting across • Spring, summer and harvest weather in the massive discount to domestic old crop costs. the board. The main exception is the world’s northern hemisphere This strategy may also risk exporters have to largest wheat exporter, the USA, where • The extent to which wheat use in feeds is compete with the government when they drought has diminished prospects for its hard reduced if maize crops recover as planned come to source the sold grain as officials want red winter crop – its biggest (and therefore to prioritise rebuilding depleted intervention stocks and are reportedly also planning to offer the world’s) single country export component. However, even that crop is improving with Maize –season of plenty prices equivalent to $250/290/tonne. That recent rain and snow. With old crop HRW ahead? said, the Russians have historically gone for exports running lower on lack of demand and the early season import trade and they have comfortable stocks of this class and wheat in Crosscurrents have continued to tug at a ‘reliable supplier’ reputation to rebuild for total likely to be carried into 2012/13, the US maize prices, restraining the price advance their future trade expansion plans (see GFMT’s should still be able to export freely. to about 6.5% compared with the near 10% passim) so their early, active presence can’t be Will world wheat trade recover from this added to wheat’s February lows. The main ruled out. Last year’s Russian exports more season’s 12m tonne drop? There are no factor on the upside has been that spectre of than halved to 10.5m tonnes but the coming obvious contenders yet to boost the figure low end-season stocks, especially after USDA season could see a rebound to maybe 14-15m in the import side and the top buyer Egypt recently added 2.5m tonnes to its US feed tonnes. There have been a few 20m forecasts has run out of trade finance and is cutting back use forecast. There have also been reports of which, given perfect summer weather, can’t sharply on purchases. Will as much wheat be recovering demand from the US corn ethanol be ruled out. fed to livestock in the US, Asia feed markets sector (40% of US maize disappearance). This Ukraine has had an exceptionally kind winter etc? Probably not, if corn production rebounds has all made farmers cautious about parting with little frost damage and most of its wheat as much as forecast, returning to its usual with their remaining old crop stocks, expecting crop is in good condition. There has even discount versus wheat. However, countries to get higher prices for as these as supplies been talk of the total (winter abnd spring) which normally use a lot of wheat in feeds dwindle in last quarter 2012/13 (Jun/Aug). This crop reaching a record 21m tonnes versus – but had to cut use during the past tight/ strategy is not without risk, though, as the US last year’s 15.5m and the 2011 record 18.8m. expensive season (especially Europe and the futures markets say maize will be cheaper Ukraine has also got off to a flying start with CIS) may use more as supplies rebound and by well over $1/bushel (about $47/tonne or its spring plantings and looks likely to have prices come down. 16.6%) from July to September, dropping by another huge maize crop which will reduce Overall, the outlook is for adequate wheat another 5% by December. wheat feeding and leave more for export. At supplies. Barring several severe weather upsets At the same time, competition for maize this stage, traders are talking 8m to 9m tonnes (realistically there are always one or two), import business on international markets is of exports versus this year’s 6.,5/7m but that the forward new crop prices quoted on the heating up to an almost unprecedented degree. 46 | march - april 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
  • 6. Have You Experienced This In Your Elevator? For over 35 years, and in more than 50 countries, Tapco has been solving the problem of bent & torn steel buckets. ® STYLE CC-HD (HEAVY DUTY) Polyethylene Elevator Bucket Urethane • Nylon T apco nonmetallic buckets have the ability to absorb impact in the elevator leg and “give” or “yield” to bypass an obstruction. They then return to their original shape and keep on working for you. Tapco buckets weigh less than their pressed steel counterparts, lack sharp edges and therefore are far safer and easier to handle when fitting an elevator. With 900,000 buckets in 93 sizes stocked throughout the world, Tapco has what you want, when you need it! Tapco also maintains over 15 million elevator bolts in imperial and metric threads in six styles. Tapco fanged elevator bolts have been specifically FANGED HEAD Elevator Bolt designed to work with nonmetallic buckets. Contact Tapco or visit www.tapcoinc.com today. Replace your steel buckets with Tapco – the buckets with the memory. ELEVATOR BUCKETS - ELEVATOR BOLTS 225 Rock Industrial Park Drive, St. Louis, Missouri 63044 U.S.A. Tel.: +1 314 739 9191 • Fax: +1 314 739 5880 • Email: info@tapcoinc.com • www.tapcoinc.com The color blue, when used in connection with elevator buckets, is a U.S. registered trademark owned by Tapco Inc. © 2011 Tapco Inc.® All rights reserved.
  • 7. COMMODITIES FEATURE FEATURE s being applicable to a wide includes the fully auditable dry steam belt Grain chilling in a flat- Warehouse grain Refrigeration of a Grain chilling in a k settings, steam can be used sanitation silo (BSU) which cleans conveyor chilling bottom metal unit hopper silo concrete silo e innumerable cleaning tasks. belts to allergen level, saving up to 3 million corn as usual in 2012, is now an be used on feeding, mixing litres of water per annum. expected export in 2012/13 weather. The Commissions crop forecasting vessels, machinery, conveyor The organisation has also developed a close to last season’s record unit MARS recently forecast yields rebounding pipelines and also general floor central steam system for food production 15m tonnes exports. The by almost 17% which would add at least 9m e spaces and much more. As and packaging areas. This is much like a competition has been tonnes to this year’s production. to the surface, dry steam central vacuum, which facilitates cleaning undercutting US maize h little residue and can by simply plugging the steam hoses into by as much as $20/30 per dry, especially central steam pipes without the need for tonne, resulting in constant KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS compared handling cleaning machines. The sophisti- downgrades to USDA’s AHEAD – MAIZE cated equipment can be used for the seasonal export forecast cleaning of heavy parts and for plastic for this grain. At 22.5m • US maize planted area and growing weather parts cleaning. The machines start tonnes this will be the will decide if US/world stocks return to from a 3kW single phase unit and lowest on modern record ‘normal’ levels, prices fall as futures forecast reach up to 144kW All ofavail- – less than a aquarter of •and grain storage facilities can all benefit of To reduce insect infestation, a common units these benefits give very quick Rising global export competition for the practice is the use of fumigation. The chemi-in electric, oil or world maize trade against able payback of the capital investment in the our technology. America, CIS countries USA from Latin cal products used have to expertly and care- gas heated typicallywell over halfone or two chillers, coils. achieved in normally. and India may contribute to cheaper maize Consergra is pioneer in the applica- fully managed, for safety reasons. And do not years. With the full brunt of Lat- tion ofahead aeration in many products. costs chilled decrease grain temperature. Our system isAm harvests yet to silos •Throughout the years, we have gained suitable to be used in be Will Europe’s own maize crop rebound, (made of metal or concrete, flat bottom or lots of supplies here? the bulk preserva- marketed, their dominance easing experience in The Conserfrio® system conical bottom) is likely to remain – at least •tion corn consumption for ethanol rice in to and warehouses, not need- US of products such as paddy seems all The Conserfrio system can be used ing additional civil works. ® until the The cooling units its varieties up again and could be a mildly next US crop be picking and lengths, cargo rice, milled proves its forecast recovery need only electrical energy. bullish factor for prices rice, maize, wheat, barley, sunflower seeds, dditional The chiller replaces the fan. The chilled, •cotton seeds, beans, demand and its maize and can then be offered at China’s growing feed soybeans and green e required in Thanks to a vast improvement in weather over those into the silo through coffee beansitto name or expand in 2013/14, dry air is introduced much cheaper prices deficit – will stabilize but a few. improve cleaning quarter 2013, Latin American maize crops indicated by the futures markets. first existing ducts. demanding more from the world market? In benefit of the human and animal health icient cleaning are now expected to reach record levels. capacity Even warehouses, the chilled air mayyet •and of the environment asto buygrains any In then, the US could be facing be Speculators’ enthusiasm well, into and from the steam pressure up from 21m to 25/26m, Brazil’s another year through ducts placed under or seeds must be problems treated as food. Argentina’s is introduced of increased competition from crop weather responsibly e surface to be cleaned to perhaps 76m. Between them the Ukraine which expects to harvest about from 73m and over floor. In both cases a ducting system Proteins/oilmeals - demand to mop up ower of micro they couldaexport 45/47m tonnes compared 21m tonnes again this year. The EU’s own extra soya? drops at high must be previously installed. More inforMation: with 15/25m normally. Ukraine, which for the maize crop – which fell 11.5m tonnes last year with minimal moisture present. The oilmeal sector also remains promising Website: www.consergra.com second year running, produced twice as much – Conclusion sharply with more normal for cheaper costs ahead. Improved weather is could also rise cific The system ca- has demon- and UPGRADE YOUR SKILLS strated to be nts the most natural WITH IAOM ded A low temperature is key point Premier Grain Industry Event and cost-effec- The ove for a good storage - combining tive to preserve trade with policy ca- Enroll in IAOM’s Resident Milling Course program at Date:Tuesday, 11 June seeds grains, 2013 OCRIM’s International School of Milling Technology in cific and perishable Venue: Westminster, London Cremona, Italy for independently of ambient weather con- granulates dur- hin ditions. Even under rain or fog there’s ing storage. A Learn problem-solving skills for better technical and economic pli- no risk of rewetting the grain. Our low storing tem- considerations at your mill. In addition to lecture and discussions, Assessing prospects, addressing challenges ces system is based on the making of con- perature not participants will be engaged in hands-on laboratory and pilot-scale uld stant conditions under which the grainfrom their reduces World grain and oilseed prices have retreated only milling exercises. th- storage issupplies natural, safe and profit the product vital highs, but easy, remain tight following last year’s poor of IAOM Fundamentals of Milling I | Sept. 30-Oct. 4 earning. in key exporting countries. While South American harvests metabolic activ- Hands-on technical training course on general flour milling gre- crops look set toturningnew recordsto cool it drought also most Practices like break the grain this season, ity but plant operations. have weak success and wasteconcern,energy, of the troubles conditions in the US remain a lots of and a recovery in demand will keep supplies under pressure. IAOM Fundamentals of Milling II | October 7-11 also breaking some percentage of grains. of a storing With renewed price volatility, biofuel mandates have come control. There are many direct savings and ben- without Technical and economic analytical tools for milling process under intense scrutiny, and the potential for policy-driven efits related to a correct chilled conservation. Typical users evaluation. nt restrictions to trade, particularly should harvests disappoint The most important are: again, are an enduring market concern. of chilled aera- ns Course Fees: Member - €1,900 Non-member - € 2,000 • Avoiding fumigation means cost savings tion are from The course fees cover tuition, laboratory fees, books, special instruction, materials, ch- The IGC Grains Conference brings togethersmall farms with • Less weight loss, in other words higher key public transport pass, and lunch on class days. Fees do not include lodging and rey decision makers, industry representatives and other product output at the end of storage as little as 100 evening meals. Fee covers one week of instruction. has stakeholders to discuss the latest developments in time and oilseed markets together withton storage up the grain the is • Higher product quality means a higher to large plants policy challenges they present. a selling price with storing dry • Higher head grains after the milling capacities of nes process. This point is especially around 100,000, ent important in the rice industry 500,000 or even www.igc.int • Energy savings in the drying process. It 1,000,000 mt. any is possible and safe to store product for information about IGC visit: Rice mills, eri- with a higher moisture content if grain flour mills, feed ting temperature is low. A drying-cooling mills, malting for event specific information visit: am combination achieves relevant energy plants, oilseed This www.igc.int/en/conference/confhome.aspx plants savings. crushing www.iaom.info/education & & Grain feed millinG technoloGy Grain feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2013 | 11 march - april 2013 | 47 march - april 2013 | 37
  • 8. helping record Latin American crop forecast deterred by a 17% drop in last year’s yields yield a record crop on the planned area. materialize and, if the US sows as much as due to lack of timely rains. EU sunflower Down under, Australian rapeseed output most analysts expect – and gets more normal output is meanwhile forecast by French was recently forecast to increase from last weather/yields this year – supplies will be more analyst Strategie Grains to rise by over 11% year’s 3.64m to about 3.5/3.7m tonnes, some than adequate in 2013/14. to 7.8m tonnes but stocks of sunflowerseed estimates even approaching 4m which would Some question marks remain over 2013 in EU and global terms will be unusually low at be welcomed by impor ters. With world crops of other key oilseeds like sunflowers the start of next season, so domestic supplies stocks at a nine-year low, bigger rapeseed and rapeseed. However, the sheer size of the may still need a bigger top up than this from crops are needed this year to avoid short increase in soya supplies should be enough imports. supplies towards the close of next season to push up world total oilseed production European rapeseed crop prospects are although rapeseed meal, as noted above, by some 26m tonnes or about 6% . All mixed as northwest France and the UK had far will have to continue pricing at a discount to these alternative oilmeals, of course, cannot too much rain, waterlogging, intermittent mild what it is hoped will be relatively abyndant divorce their pricing from the market leader weather and freezing blasts. Some reports soya meal. soya meal – accounting for 55% of total meal suggest 20% or more UK winter sowings output and with its higher protein content, the most valuable meal too. Currently the could fail. However, Germany, Denmark and some eastern states are looking better than KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS futures markets are predicting US soya meal last year with less frost damage, so the total AHEAD – OILMEALS/PROTEINS prices will be over 15% cheaper by last quarter EU figure could yet increase within a range 2013 although, if all the US production comes of 18.5/20.5m tonnes. Like sunflowerseed, • US spring soyabean planting and growing through, that may considerably understate the rapeseed has drawn stocks to very low levels weather potential decline in costs in this sector. in EU and global terms so supplies are unlikely • South America’s delayed marketing of a to be loose next season. On the bright side, record crop – more competition ahead Sunflower/rapeseed prospects Ukrainian crop prospects are much better than last year’s so more could be exported for the USA’s peak, post-harvest marketing period and further downward pressure on Some analysts have forecast a 5% decline in from this frequent EU supplier. The largest soya costs? combined Russian/Ukrainian sunflowerseed exporter, Canada expects to sow less canola • Chinese demand for soya meal – is it starting sowings with Ukraine alone down 7-10% , as farmers shift to wheat but, providing this to peak or just pausing for breath? after less land was freed up for spring crops year’s slow snow melt doesn’t hold up sowing, • EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflowerseed and by ‘winterkill’ of autumn-sown grain crops. a return from last year’s weather-hit yields Canadian canola plantings - and their crop Ukraine farmers might also have been (they fell 20%!) to normal levels could yet weather WANT NEWS? Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine has two new options for you - online and up to the minute! Global THE Miller The Global Miller blog is an online offshoot The Global Milling News service is a new of Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine. development from the Perendale Publishers While the bi-monthly magazine covers mill- Limited family of grain, feed and flour milling ing issues in-depth, the Global Miller takes a publications. The site scours the web to find lighter approach. The columnists dig out the relevant stories from around the globe. The best daily industry stories, show and event information is then ranked and orgnaised by news and highlights from the print magazine topic, making it easy to find information. If and bring them to you ever day ... you’re searching for a specific topic, you’ll find it at Global Milling News. GO MOBILE All of our services are also available for your smart phone.Visit http://www.gfmt.co.uk/pplapp for a demo To find out more about our news services visit: version of our app - or use the QR code to get the app http://www.gfmt.co.uk/millingnews FREE on your mobile. 48 | march - april 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
  • 9. Leave nothing to chance. With WinCos Care, the Service Management System of Bühler, you will put your maintenance work in order. The system, which is customized by Bühler to precisely fit the specific needs of your production system, takes charge of the entire planning and administration of all your maintenance jobs. This ensures efficient processes and maximum plant uptime. Bühler AG, Grain Processing Customer Service, CH-9240 Uzwil, Switzerland, T +41 71 955 30 40, service.gp@buhlergroup.com, www.buhlergroup.com WinCos Care Service Management System – Unrivaled Efficiency. Maximum uptime: Prefabricated job cards are based on service hours or calendar intervals as well as individual job planning. Plug & Play: Efficient processes and customer- specifically programmed software for all plants. Always up to the minute: Automatic online updates and data backup. All in one system: Extensive documentation, among other things for certifications (e.g. International Food Standard). Innovations for a better world.
  • 10. This digital Re-print is part of the March | April 2013 edition of Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine. Content from the magazine is available to view free-of-charge, both as a full LINKS online magazine on our website, and as an archive of individual features on the docstoc website. Please click here to view our other publications on www.docstoc.com. March - April 2013 first published in 1891 • See the full issue In this issue: • Additives for flour standardisation Part I: Enzymes • Measures for increasing the energy • Visit the GFMT website efficiency of UFA feed mills in Switzerland • • Contact the GFMT Team Fine grinding and BS3 Xylanase • Importance improve of trace productivity in minerals weaners for nutrient stability in feed • Super • Managing mill • Subscribe to GFMT chilled maintenance grains - Maintenance options and challenges INCORPORATING PORTS, DISTRIBUTION AND FORMULATION A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 To purchase a paper copy of the magazine, or to subscribe to the paper edi- tion please contact our Circulation and Subscriptions Manager on the link adove. INFORMATION FOR ADVERTISERS - CLICK HERE Article reprints All Grain & Feed Milling Tecchnology feature articles can be re-printed as a 4 or 8 page booklets (these have been used as point of sale materials, promotional materials for shows and exhibitions etc). If you are interested in getting this article re-printed please contact the GFMT team for more informa- tion on - Tel: +44 1242 267707 - Email: jamest@gfmt.co.uk or visit www.gfmt.co.uk/reprints www.gfmt.co.uk