3. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
Some analysts Crop hopes should keep raw material
have forecast a 5% costs in check
decline in combined
H
OPES of a major rebound from raised its wheat use by 4m tonnes (to meet feed
Russian/Ukrainian last season’s disappointing crop shortages after its small maize crop) consumption
performance put wheat prices under elsewhere fell far more steeply, mainly in the EU,
sunflowerseed further downward pressure for much Russia and Ukraine. Their combined decline, mainly
of the period since our last review and helped in feed use, resulted in world total consumption in
sowings with restrain frisky corn/soya prices too. On the this sector dropping by almost 13m tonnes.
leading Chicago futures market, the bellwether The other factor weighing on wheat prices
Ukraine alone soft red winter wheat contract fell at one stage has been export competition, which has been
to as little as $247 per tonne for near delivery sustained for far longer than many had expected at
down 7-10%, after compared with last July’s peak of about $347.50. the start of this season when it was becoming clear
European soft milling wheat followed suit despite a that ‘Black Sea’ harvests were going to disappoint
less land was freed weak euro and rapidly disappearing supplies from again. In the event, Russian exportable supplies are
last year’s smaller than expected crop, at one thought to have collapsed by 11m tonnes while two
up for spring crops stage reaching eight month lows of €232/tonne on other key exporters, Argentina and Australia are
old-crop months. Traded prices on world export also expected to each ship 4m tonnes less than
by ‘winterkill’ of markets also declined, soft milling wheats settling in the previous season. But on the other hand,
about $20 either side of the $300/tonne level on Indian exports are seen increasing by 7m on-year
autumn-sown grain fob terms. For US soft red winter wheat that was to a new record 10m tonnes versus zero normally.
about $60/80 cheaper than last summer’s peaks. Canada’s sales are also seen rising by 1m, Europe’s
crops. Ukraine Two factors have driven wheat market weakness. by 3m. At the same time, this season’s world import
One is the widespread idea that this year’s global demand has dropped away by 12m tonnes, (after
farmers might also crop might actually come close to the 2011 record declines in Egypt, EU, Africa, Middle East), leaving
697m tonnes as output recovers in the former exporters competing for shares of a smaller cake.
have been deterred Soviet Union and Europe and increases in Canada Interestingly, this has occurred despite constant
and Australia. That total may be a bit optimistic, reports that wheat’s unusual discount to maize is
by a 17% drop in given the poor start to the US hard red winter pushing the coarse grain out of Asian feed markets.
wheat crop and a number of weather issues in Some analysts had expected wheat prices to firm
last year’s yields western Europe and Russia. Still, a healthy addition up when Russian and Ukrainian supplies started
to next season’s wheat supplies is nonetheless to dry up at the turn of the year. However, India,
due to lack of backed by bodies including the International Grains burgeoning with record stocks and with another
Council, the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation huge crop around the corner, then stepped up
timely rains. and the US Department of Agriculture (whose as the cheapest export offer - but quickly found
unofficial forecasts have been among the highest). itself still in a pricing (and quality) contest with US
That said, the view seems to be gaining hold and European soft wheats too. Along with the
that next season’s world surplus stock of wheat continued presence of Canada and Australia and
will not increase much as demand increases too. – even yet - small volumes of wheat still trickling
But then, global stocks are hardly small to start out of Russia and Kazakhstan, there has been no
with, having run close to the record 200m tonne apparent shortage for importers wanting to take
level for the past three seasons and – even in his advantage of the drop in wheat prices (up to 22%)
supposedly tighter year - still expected to finish at from last summer’s highs.
a comfortable 178m. This relatively small decline While there has been no real justification to
has been due to total wheat consumption falling push prices up, US wheat futures markets have
this season by almost 25m tonnes. Although the US gone firmer again in the past month. This is partly
44 | march - april 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
4. medium of the digestive tract and sulphates
are attributed to a higher value than oxides.
COMMODITIES (degradation and damage of s
dients such as vitamins or f
A product with very low solubility, for forming harmful free radicals
example, copper oxide, therefore should and reducing palatability of fe
not be used (any longer) in feeding livestock. al. 1998; Lu et al. 2010; Pang a
due to US exports finally picking up and by the end of the
even starting to approach the needed pace calendar year,
for the (recently reduced) official forecast wheat demand
for the season. At the same time, maize has and pricing
extended its unusual price premium to wheat will clearly be Graph 1: Impact of various copper sources on the G
on both the US futures and physical markets, affected. concentration of vitamin E in feed (Lu et al. 2010) so
leading to a steady surge in wheat orders Like wheat,
from domestic feeders and even from the maize is also
US ethanol industry (despite wheat’s lower s e e ing lowe r
value in terms of starch/fuel production world demand – The good solubility of sulphates, however, 2006; Shurson et al. 2011).
canceling out much of the advantage of its a 6.7% fall in this provides us with the disadvantage that for In contrast to inorganic, org
price discount v maize). However, possibly season’s exports example dissociated copper ions are very trace elements (trace element
some of those substituting wheat in this and on the back of a 10% drop reactive (strong pro-oxidant that initiate and US crop has only just and abso
in consumption. A must also remember, the stable in the diet
other sectors may be using it as a bargaining big US maize crop this summer will – provided and therefore promote animal conditions due to
speed up oxidation) begun sowing and, as recent wet is improved
tool to keep their maize costs under control. world supplies keep at least adversetoo - result with feed components there remain a world
steady reactions have reminded traders, structure. Their advantage is
Along with the higher exports this picture in a lot more
of improving US wheat demand (although not maize and less
yet proven in the official seasonal forecasts wheat being
for US wheat usage) has begun to unsettle fed there.
the speculative community. For some time, Cheaper
funds and other ‘outside’ investors had built prices should
up record large short (sold) positions on the also boos t
futures markets, effectively betting on wheat overall
prices falling further rather than rising. As feedgrain use
these operators have been forced to cover (The IGC sees
their exposure, that has injected a self-fuelling barley output
element into the rally on the Chicago markets. up 6% too).
In recent weeks, along with strong EU exports At this stage
and a weak euro, the US trend has also spilled – a US maize
some strength into the European wheat crop rebound See our previous editions online for free
market and into international wheat export is expected of
prices to a lesser extent (Paris milling wheat at least 30 %
futures recently at six-week highs). from this year’s May - June 2012 March - April 2012 January - February 2012 November - December 2011 October 2011
However, this latest mini-rally would not unusually low • Bulk storage & • African
In this issue:
• Mycotoxins
• Producing Flaked In this issue:
have been possible without some help from 274m tonnes
• LC-MS/MS: • Assessing
handling advances
an overview
breakfast Cereals
The New Reference cereal quality
Method for Mycotoxin parameters Animal feed milling • Database for
• Sample
Analysis is one of the most animal diet preparation
buoyant activities in formulation of feeds and
In this issue: the agri related field techniques: forage for NIR
A glance to last analysis
a relatively firm maize market, the latter to around
• Mould control • Grinding by a proven • Efficiency • Increasing • Get in line decade
• Milling Technology
Energy saving in flour milling storage Process analysis solutions open Redefined
in grain and feed preservation concept makes your
capacity new opportunities for improved • Food safety
• 15-Year
In this issue: choice simple In this issue: profit and quality
in the grain
Celebration:
• Digital milling
Fortifying with
microwave industry
• NIR in • Improving
moisture
folic acid prevents
practice supply from
• 22,000 birth
underpinned by an ever tightening supply 360/370m
Recent
farm to fork measurement
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• Rice and
• Preservatives • Optical sorting • Direct Cold Plasma:
• Fast, reliable contract • Controlling Insects
• Victam Asia Preservatives are a recurring
• Global grain &
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Showcase as a serious option for inclusion Wheat supply
weighing • New weighing
in any modern wheat cleaning
industry
grows and grows
software • Global
after last year’s short US crop. As the IGC tonnes. Thatv
plant as corn crop
for UK grain & feed
co-operative markets shrinks
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891 A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
reminded markets this past month, it is not will not only
GFMT12.01.indd 1 02/02/2012 10:12 GFMT11.06.indd 1 30/11/2011 17:28 GFMT11.05.indd 1 05/10/2011 09:49
GFMT12.03.indd 1 22/06/2012 08:48 GFMT12.02.indd 1 17/04/2012 13:05
only US stocks of maize that will finish 2012/13 boost demand
at unusually low levels. World stocks are also
expected to fall to a 16-year low. However,
but replenish
US s tock s,
www.gfmt.co.uk/archive.php 8
if all goes well with the coming US and other helping to Ba
world crops of maize, that inventory could be keep forward Are you social?
back to an eight-year high by September 2014. maize prices Keep up to date with us in-between issues by
All this, of course, has implications for wheat down through following us on any of our social platforms
demand and value. If maize prices do shift, as the coming
futures promise, from their current modest season.
Take a look at our newly re-vamped Facebook page,
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premium over wheat to a steep 24% discount However, we the very best of The Global Miller’s news
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Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2013 | 45
5. of weather possibilities to get US wheat market currently
through yet. look too high – especially
against maize which is now
Wheat – export heavily discounted for last
quarter 2013 against the
competition may spot market and at a huge
keep prices down discount to forward wheat
prices too. European
The biggest single factor wheat markets in contrast,
affecting medium/long-term are heavily discounted on
wheat costs in the months new crop, Paris milling
ahead will by the success wheat futures 10% to 12%
or otherwise of ‘Black Sea’ below current crop prices,
(CIS) attempts to recover mainly on the assumption
production from last year’s that domestic wheat crops
disappointing , dr ought- will increase this summer.
hit levels. Russia has had In conclusion, amid higher
one or two problems with global output, increased
winterkill and dryness in its export competition, limited
key southern (export supply import recovery prospects
catchment) area and officials and less pressure to feed
are currently talking a wide wheat instead of maize,
crop range of 40/50m tonnes the European market’s
(probably near the median prospect of cheaper wheat
45m) compared with last year’s 37.7m and figure could go up too. Kazakhstan should costs ahead starts to look more realistic than
2011’s bumper 56.2m tones. A few years also see some comeback in wheat output the picture painted by US futures.
earlier, Russia was producing over 60m so after drought cut last year’s crop from 22.7m
this year’s crop would hardly be a banner
one. Russian stocks will also be very low by
to 9.8m tonnes and exports from 11m to 6.5m.
If the Black Sea crops do come back
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
the end of this season and officials have talked as planned, they will be up against more AHEAD – WHEAT
about giving priority to rebuilding these before competition for world import trade – from
embarking on any aggressive export campaign. India (maybe another 10m tonnes of unusual • The extent of European and Black Sea crop
Even so, some Russian exporters have already expor ts) and from expected bigger EU, rebounds from last year’s disappointing
started selling some of the new crop forward Canadian and Australian crops, with the usual levels
as cheaply as $265/275/tonne fob terms – a caveat of normal weather permitting across • Spring, summer and harvest weather in the
massive discount to domestic old crop costs. the board. The main exception is the world’s northern hemisphere
This strategy may also risk exporters have to largest wheat exporter, the USA, where • The extent to which wheat use in feeds is
compete with the government when they drought has diminished prospects for its hard reduced if maize crops recover as planned
come to source the sold grain as officials want red winter crop – its biggest (and therefore
to prioritise rebuilding depleted intervention
stocks and are reportedly also planning to offer
the world’s) single country export component.
However, even that crop is improving with
Maize –season of plenty
prices equivalent to $250/290/tonne. That recent rain and snow. With old crop HRW ahead?
said, the Russians have historically gone for exports running lower on lack of demand and
the early season import trade and they have comfortable stocks of this class and wheat in Crosscurrents have continued to tug at
a ‘reliable supplier’ reputation to rebuild for total likely to be carried into 2012/13, the US maize prices, restraining the price advance
their future trade expansion plans (see GFMT’s should still be able to export freely. to about 6.5% compared with the near 10%
passim) so their early, active presence can’t be Will world wheat trade recover from this added to wheat’s February lows. The main
ruled out. Last year’s Russian exports more season’s 12m tonne drop? There are no factor on the upside has been that spectre of
than halved to 10.5m tonnes but the coming obvious contenders yet to boost the figure low end-season stocks, especially after USDA
season could see a rebound to maybe 14-15m in the import side and the top buyer Egypt recently added 2.5m tonnes to its US feed
tonnes. There have been a few 20m forecasts has run out of trade finance and is cutting back use forecast. There have also been reports of
which, given perfect summer weather, can’t sharply on purchases. Will as much wheat be recovering demand from the US corn ethanol
be ruled out. fed to livestock in the US, Asia feed markets sector (40% of US maize disappearance). This
Ukraine has had an exceptionally kind winter etc? Probably not, if corn production rebounds has all made farmers cautious about parting
with little frost damage and most of its wheat as much as forecast, returning to its usual with their remaining old crop stocks, expecting
crop is in good condition. There has even discount versus wheat. However, countries to get higher prices for as these as supplies
been talk of the total (winter abnd spring) which normally use a lot of wheat in feeds dwindle in last quarter 2012/13 (Jun/Aug). This
crop reaching a record 21m tonnes versus – but had to cut use during the past tight/ strategy is not without risk, though, as the US
last year’s 15.5m and the 2011 record 18.8m. expensive season (especially Europe and the futures markets say maize will be cheaper
Ukraine has also got off to a flying start with CIS) may use more as supplies rebound and by well over $1/bushel (about $47/tonne or
its spring plantings and looks likely to have prices come down. 16.6%) from July to September, dropping by
another huge maize crop which will reduce Overall, the outlook is for adequate wheat another 5% by December.
wheat feeding and leave more for export. At supplies. Barring several severe weather upsets At the same time, competition for maize
this stage, traders are talking 8m to 9m tonnes (realistically there are always one or two), import business on international markets is
of exports versus this year’s 6.,5/7m but that the forward new crop prices quoted on the heating up to an almost unprecedented degree.
46 | march - april 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
7. COMMODITIES
FEATURE FEATURE
s being applicable to a wide includes the fully auditable dry steam belt
Grain chilling in a flat- Warehouse grain Refrigeration of a Grain chilling in a
k settings, steam can be used sanitation silo (BSU) which cleans conveyor chilling
bottom metal unit hopper silo concrete silo
e innumerable cleaning tasks. belts to allergen level, saving up to 3 million corn as usual in 2012, is now
an be used on feeding, mixing litres of water per annum. expected export in 2012/13 weather. The Commissions crop forecasting
vessels, machinery, conveyor The organisation has also developed a close to last season’s record unit MARS recently forecast yields rebounding
pipelines and also general floor central steam system for food production 15m tonnes exports. The by almost 17% which would add at least 9m
e spaces and much more. As and packaging areas. This is much like a competition has been tonnes to this year’s production.
to the surface, dry steam central vacuum, which facilitates cleaning undercutting US maize
h
little residue and can by simply plugging the steam hoses into by as much as $20/30 per
dry, especially central steam pipes without the need for tonne, resulting in constant
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
compared handling cleaning machines. The sophisti- downgrades to USDA’s AHEAD – MAIZE
cated equipment can be used for the seasonal export forecast
cleaning of heavy parts and for plastic for this grain. At 22.5m • US maize planted area and growing weather
parts cleaning. The machines start tonnes this will be the will decide if US/world stocks return to
from a 3kW single phase unit and lowest on modern record ‘normal’ levels, prices fall as futures forecast
reach up to 144kW All ofavail- – less than a aquarter of •and grain storage facilities can all benefit of
To reduce insect infestation, a common units these benefits give very quick Rising global export competition for the
practice is the use of fumigation. The chemi-in electric, oil or world maize trade against
able payback of the capital investment in the our technology. America, CIS countries
USA from Latin
cal products used have to expertly and care- gas heated typicallywell over halfone or two
chillers, coils. achieved in normally. and India may contribute to cheaper maize
Consergra is pioneer in the applica-
fully managed, for safety reasons. And do not years. With the full brunt of Lat- tion ofahead aeration in many products.
costs chilled
decrease grain temperature. Our system isAm harvests yet to silos •Throughout the years, we have gained
suitable to be used in be Will Europe’s own maize crop rebound,
(made of metal or concrete, flat bottom or lots of supplies here? the bulk preserva-
marketed, their dominance easing experience in
The Conserfrio® system conical bottom) is likely to remain – at least •tion corn consumption for ethanol rice in to
and warehouses, not need- US of products such as paddy seems all
The Conserfrio system can be used ing additional civil works.
® until the The cooling units its varieties up again and could be a mildly
next US crop be picking and lengths, cargo rice, milled
proves its forecast recovery
need only electrical energy. bullish factor for prices
rice, maize, wheat, barley, sunflower seeds,
dditional The chiller replaces the fan. The chilled, •cotton seeds, beans, demand and its maize
and can then be offered at China’s growing feed soybeans and green
e required in Thanks to a vast improvement in weather over those into the silo through coffee beansitto name or expand in 2013/14,
dry air is introduced much cheaper prices deficit – will stabilize but a few.
improve cleaning quarter 2013, Latin American maize crops indicated by the futures markets.
first existing ducts. demanding more from the world market?
In benefit of the human and animal health
icient cleaning are now expected to reach record levels.
capacity Even warehouses, the chilled air mayyet •and of the environment asto buygrains any
In then, the US could be facing be Speculators’ enthusiasm well, into and
from the steam pressure up from 21m to 25/26m, Brazil’s another year through ducts placed under or seeds must be problems treated as food.
Argentina’s is introduced of increased competition from crop weather responsibly
e surface to be cleaned to perhaps 76m. Between them the Ukraine which expects to harvest about
from 73m and over floor. In both cases a ducting system Proteins/oilmeals - demand to mop up
ower of micro they couldaexport 45/47m tonnes compared 21m tonnes again this year. The EU’s own extra soya?
drops at high must be previously installed. More inforMation:
with 15/25m normally. Ukraine, which for the maize crop – which fell 11.5m tonnes last year
with minimal moisture present. The oilmeal sector also remains promising
Website: www.consergra.com
second year running, produced twice as much – Conclusion sharply with more normal for cheaper costs ahead. Improved weather is
could also rise
cific The system
ca- has demon-
and
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of IAOM Fundamentals of Milling I | Sept. 30-Oct. 4
earning. in key exporting countries. While South American
harvests metabolic activ- Hands-on technical training course on general flour milling
gre- crops look set toturningnew recordsto cool it drought also most
Practices like break the grain this season, ity but plant operations.
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conditions in the US remain a lots of and a recovery in
demand will keep supplies under pressure. IAOM Fundamentals of Milling II | October 7-11
also breaking some percentage of grains. of a storing
With renewed price volatility, biofuel mandates have come control.
There are many direct savings and ben- without Technical and economic analytical tools for milling process
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efits related to a correct chilled conservation. Typical users evaluation.
nt restrictions to trade, particularly should harvests disappoint
The most important are:
again, are an enduring market concern. of chilled aera-
ns Course Fees: Member - €1,900 Non-member - € 2,000
• Avoiding fumigation means cost savings tion are from The course fees cover tuition, laboratory fees, books, special instruction, materials,
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is • Higher product quality means a higher to large plants
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nes process. This point is especially around 100,000,
ent important in the rice industry 500,000 or even
www.igc.int
• Energy savings in the drying process. It 1,000,000 mt.
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Grain feed millinG technoloGy
Grain feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2013 | 11 march - april 2013 | 47
march - april 2013 | 37
8. helping record Latin American crop forecast deterred by a 17% drop in last year’s yields yield a record crop on the planned area.
materialize and, if the US sows as much as due to lack of timely rains. EU sunflower Down under, Australian rapeseed output
most analysts expect – and gets more normal output is meanwhile forecast by French was recently forecast to increase from last
weather/yields this year – supplies will be more analyst Strategie Grains to rise by over 11% year’s 3.64m to about 3.5/3.7m tonnes, some
than adequate in 2013/14. to 7.8m tonnes but stocks of sunflowerseed estimates even approaching 4m which would
Some question marks remain over 2013 in EU and global terms will be unusually low at be welcomed by impor ters. With world
crops of other key oilseeds like sunflowers the start of next season, so domestic supplies stocks at a nine-year low, bigger rapeseed
and rapeseed. However, the sheer size of the may still need a bigger top up than this from crops are needed this year to avoid short
increase in soya supplies should be enough imports. supplies towards the close of next season
to push up world total oilseed production European rapeseed crop prospects are although rapeseed meal, as noted above,
by some 26m tonnes or about 6% . All mixed as northwest France and the UK had far will have to continue pricing at a discount to
these alternative oilmeals, of course, cannot too much rain, waterlogging, intermittent mild what it is hoped will be relatively abyndant
divorce their pricing from the market leader weather and freezing blasts. Some reports soya meal.
soya meal – accounting for 55% of total meal suggest 20% or more UK winter sowings
output and with its higher protein content,
the most valuable meal too. Currently the
could fail. However, Germany, Denmark and
some eastern states are looking better than
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
futures markets are predicting US soya meal last year with less frost damage, so the total AHEAD – OILMEALS/PROTEINS
prices will be over 15% cheaper by last quarter EU figure could yet increase within a range
2013 although, if all the US production comes of 18.5/20.5m tonnes. Like sunflowerseed, • US spring soyabean planting and growing
through, that may considerably understate the rapeseed has drawn stocks to very low levels weather
potential decline in costs in this sector. in EU and global terms so supplies are unlikely • South America’s delayed marketing of a
to be loose next season. On the bright side, record crop – more competition ahead
Sunflower/rapeseed prospects Ukrainian crop prospects are much better
than last year’s so more could be exported
for the USA’s peak, post-harvest marketing
period and further downward pressure on
Some analysts have forecast a 5% decline in from this frequent EU supplier. The largest soya costs?
combined Russian/Ukrainian sunflowerseed exporter, Canada expects to sow less canola • Chinese demand for soya meal – is it starting
sowings with Ukraine alone down 7-10% , as farmers shift to wheat but, providing this to peak or just pausing for breath?
after less land was freed up for spring crops year’s slow snow melt doesn’t hold up sowing, • EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflowerseed and
by ‘winterkill’ of autumn-sown grain crops. a return from last year’s weather-hit yields Canadian canola plantings - and their crop
Ukraine farmers might also have been (they fell 20%!) to normal levels could yet weather
WANT NEWS?
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48 | march - april 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
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LINKS
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Please click here to view our other publications on www.docstoc.com.
March - April 2013
first published in 1891
• See the full issue
In this issue:
• Additives for flour
standardisation
Part I: Enzymes
• Measures for
increasing
the energy
• Visit the GFMT website
efficiency of
UFA feed
mills in
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