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The Second 
Machine Age 
Erik Brynjolfsson 
MIT Sloan School 
MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
@erikbryn 
1 MIT Init...
The Second Machine Age 
Changing the world requires two things: 
• Physical Power: move or transform things 
• Mental Powe...
State of Understanding, 2004 
Uniquely Human Abilities 
- Autonomous mobility and fine motor 
control 
- Language and comp...
4 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
Machine Intelligence 
5 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
Interacting with physical world 
• Fine and gross motor con...
6 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
7 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
8 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
Machine Intelligence 
9 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
Interacting with physical world 
• Fine and gross motor con...
10 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
Siri 
Voice recognition 
Lionbridge 
Translation 
Narrative Science 
Authoring N...
11 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
12 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
Machine Intelligence 
Interacting with physical world 
13 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
• Fine and gross motor co...
The Digital Frontier 
14 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
Accuracy and Questions Answered on Jeopardy! 
100% 
90% 
80% 
70% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60...
The Digital Frontier 
16 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
The Digital Frontier 
17 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
18 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
19 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
20 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
What does this mean for the 
economy? 
21 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
22 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
The Bounty
$300 BILLION PER YEAR 
23 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
24 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
The Great Decoupling 
25 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
WHAT’S GOING ON? 
26 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
27 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
The Hard Truth 
Digital progress makes the 
economic pie bigger. 
But there is n...
Three Sets of Winners and Losers 
1. High Skilled vs. Low & Mid Skilled Workers 
28 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
29 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
Skill Disparities
Polarization of the Labor Market 
Mid-wage workers have been hit hardest in both 
employment and wages 
30 MIT Initiative ...
Three Sets of Winners and Losers 
1. High Skilled vs. Low & Mid Skilled Workers 
31 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy ...
120 
117 
114 
111 
108 
105 
102 
99 
32 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
Capital vs. Labor 
Corporate Profit as % ...
Three Sets of Winners and Losers 
1. High Skilled vs. Low & Mid Skilled Workers 
33 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy ...
34 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
0 
1 
0 
1 
1 
0 
1 
1 
1 
0 
1 
1 
1 
1 
0 
0 
1 
0 
1 
0 
0 
1 
1 
1 
1 
1 
0 ...
35 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
Superstars
WHAT IS TO BE DONE? 
36 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
37 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
“Digital technologies change 
rapidly, but organizations and 
skills aren’t keeping pace. 
As a result, millions of people...
The New Grand Challenge 
• Digital technologies will continue 
to accelerate. 
• Our skills, organizations and 
institutio...
The Initiative on the Digital Economy 
40 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
The New Landscape 
• What challenges and opportunities do you 
see? 
• What are your concerns and questions? 
41 MIT Initi...
42 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 
To learn more, visit: 
http://digital.mit.edu/erik 
http://digital.mit.edu/ide 
...
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Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT, Is Your Business Ready For The Second Machine Age?

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MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson reveals the forces driving transformation in the economy. Drawing on years of research and up-to-the-minute trends, he will identify the key strategies businesses need to adapt to succeed in the years ahead. These include revamping how we evaluate strategic collaborations that combine processing power with human ingenuity, and embracing strategies that make sense in a radically transformed business landscape.  

Veröffentlicht in: Software
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Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT, Is Your Business Ready For The Second Machine Age?

  1. 1. The Second Machine Age Erik Brynjolfsson MIT Sloan School MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy @erikbryn 1 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  2. 2. The Second Machine Age Changing the world requires two things: • Physical Power: move or transform things • Mental Power: decide where and how Industrial Revolution = Physical Power • Steam engine (and Internal combustion engine, Electricity) • Mostly a complement to humans Second Machine Age = Mental Power • Computers, Software, Big Data, Machine Intelligence • Complement or substitute? 2 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  3. 3. State of Understanding, 2004 Uniquely Human Abilities - Autonomous mobility and fine motor control - Language and complex communication - Pattern matching and unstructured problem solving 3 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  4. 4. 4 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  5. 5. Machine Intelligence 5 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Interacting with physical world • Fine and gross motor control • Vision and other senses Language • Voice recognition • Natural language processing • Creating narratives Problem Solving • Answering unstructured questions • Rule based analysis • Pattern recognition and classification We’re in the midst of the greatest “one-time” event in history!
  6. 6. 6 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  7. 7. 7 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  8. 8. 8 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  9. 9. Machine Intelligence 9 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Interacting with physical world • Fine and gross motor control • Vision and other senses Language • Voice recognition • Natural language processing • Creating narratives Problem Solving • Answering unstructured questions • Rule based analysis • Pattern recognition and classification
  10. 10. 10 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Siri Voice recognition Lionbridge Translation Narrative Science Authoring News Stories
  11. 11. 11 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  12. 12. 12 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  13. 13. Machine Intelligence Interacting with physical world 13 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy • Fine and gross motor control • Vision and other senses Language • Voice recognition • Natural language processing • Creating narratives Problem Solving • Answering unstructured questions • Rule based analysis • Pattern recognition and classification
  14. 14. The Digital Frontier 14 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  15. 15. Accuracy and Questions Answered on Jeopardy! 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10% Percent Answered Accuracy 11/2010 04/2010 10/2009 05/2009 12/2008 08/2008 05/2008 12/2007 12/2006
  16. 16. The Digital Frontier 16 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  17. 17. The Digital Frontier 17 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  18. 18. 18 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  19. 19. 19 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  20. 20. 20 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  21. 21. What does this mean for the economy? 21 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  22. 22. 22 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy The Bounty
  23. 23. $300 BILLION PER YEAR 23 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  24. 24. 24 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  25. 25. The Great Decoupling 25 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  26. 26. WHAT’S GOING ON? 26 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  27. 27. 27 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy The Hard Truth Digital progress makes the economic pie bigger. But there is no economic law that everyone, or even most people, will benefit.
  28. 28. Three Sets of Winners and Losers 1. High Skilled vs. Low & Mid Skilled Workers 28 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  29. 29. 29 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Skill Disparities
  30. 30. Polarization of the Labor Market Mid-wage workers have been hit hardest in both employment and wages 30 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  31. 31. Three Sets of Winners and Losers 1. High Skilled vs. Low & Mid Skilled Workers 31 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 2. Capital vs. Labor
  32. 32. 120 117 114 111 108 105 102 99 32 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Capital vs. Labor Corporate Profit as % of GDP Labor Share of GDP 96 10 8 6 4 2 0 1947 1958 1969 1980 1991 2002 2013 Labor Share (2009 = 100) Corproate Profits as % of GDP Corporate Profits After Tax as % of GDP & Non-Farm Labor Share, 1947-2013 Source: research.stlouisfed.org
  33. 33. Three Sets of Winners and Losers 1. High Skilled vs. Low & Mid Skilled Workers 33 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 2. Capital vs. Labor 3. Superstars vs. Everyone Else
  34. 34. 34 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
  35. 35. 35 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Superstars
  36. 36. WHAT IS TO BE DONE? 36 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  37. 37. 37 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  38. 38. “Digital technologies change rapidly, but organizations and skills aren’t keeping pace. As a result, millions of people are being left behind.” 38 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Our View
  39. 39. The New Grand Challenge • Digital technologies will continue to accelerate. • Our skills, organizations and institutions are lagging. • Business as usual won’t solve this problem. We need to reinvent our economy and society to keep up with accelerating technology 39 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  40. 40. The Initiative on the Digital Economy 40 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  41. 41. The New Landscape • What challenges and opportunities do you see? • What are your concerns and questions? 41 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy
  42. 42. 42 MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy To learn more, visit: http://digital.mit.edu/erik http://digital.mit.edu/ide http://secondmachineage.com

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