El 12 de noviembre de 2015 dedicamos una jornada en la Fundación Ramón Areces a analizar la actual situación del Ártico. El Simposio Internacional se ocupó de las oportunidades y riesgos derivados del cambio climático. En este encuentro participaron expertos de Canadá, Estados Unidos, Finlandia, Noruega, Suecia, Alemania, Portugal y España.

1. Trans-Arctic shipping: Drivers
and obstacles
Arild Moe
The Arctic: Opportunities and challenges
deriving from climate change
Fundación Ramón Areces, Madrid, 12 Nov. 2015

2. Arctic sea routes: NWP, NEP, NSR

3. Melting ice – new sailing lanes open up

4. Main driver: Saved time and fuel
Saved distance to Rotterdam (km)

5. Political driver: Revised Russian policy
to encourage traffic
I want to stress the importance of the Northern Sea Route as an international
transport artery that will rival traditional trade lanes in service fees, security and
quality. (V. Putin 2011)
 NSR – High Russian Priority
– Internal waterway east-west
– Regional development – resources
– Icebreakers - security
 Two challenges:
– Keep control
– Finance NSR
 Can goals be realigned?

6. International use of the NSR
(number of voyages)
?
Liquids and dry bulk most promising

7. International transit: Barriers and
drawbacks compared with other routes
 Regularity –ice
 Availability of ice strengthened vessels
 Higher ship construction costs
 Limited season
 Size limitations – unit costs
 Oil price
 Suez and Panama capacity increase

8. Destination shipping – a different story?

9. Less ice – but still ice!!

11. 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Lenin
Sibir
Arktika
Rossiya
Taymyr*
Vaygach*
Sovietskiy Soyuz
Yamal*
50 let Pobedy*
New icebreaker 1
New icebreaker 2
New icebreaker 3
The nuclear icebreaker construction program:
Complicated implementation and financing

12. Outlook and challenges
 More moderate assessments of transit potential
underway
– Revenues from international transit have been
disappointing, cannot finance infrastructure
 Re-focus on internal use of NSR – oil, gas
– Will there be much customers beyond Yamal LNG?
 The icebreaker construction program still enjoys
high political support
– But delays in construction program likely
 Government finance of infrastructure crucial
– But government budgets will remain strained

13. Thank you for your attention!
arild.moe@fni.no