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Future of Mobility: from Mega Trends to the Driverless Car

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Frost & Sullivan shared the podium with Oxford University at the “Cars of the Future” seminar that took place at its Saïd Business School earlier this week. Partner Dorman Followwill gave a presentation on Frost & Sullivan’s vision of the developments that will drive the world towards safer and more autonomous automotive solutions.

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Future of Mobility: from Mega Trends to the Driverless Car

  1. 1. The Future of MobilityFrom Mega Trends to the Driverless Car by Dorman Followwill Partner
  2. 2. Mega Trends Impacting Mobility
  3. 3. Global Mega Trends Impacting Mobility in the Future New Micro Urbanization E-Mobility Mega and Smart Cities Mobility products Car Sustainable Public Integrated Mobility New Business Models Sharing/Car Transportation and Solutions (Value for Many) Pooling BRT Geo-Socialization Connected and Power to the Middle Class High Speed Rail And Social Media Wireless Planet and Gen Y
  4. 4. Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities,Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGA CITY City With A Minimum MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS Population Of 8 Million Cities Combining With The Corridors Connecting and GDP of $250 Suburbs To Form Regions. Two Major Cities or Mega Million in 2025 (13 (Population over 15 Million) Regions Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega Cities in EXAMPLE: Johannesburg EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- 2025) and Pretoria (forming Shenzhen-Guangzhou in “Jo-Toria”) China (Population 120 EXAMPLE: Greater Million) London
  5. 5. Top 20 Mega Cities – Car Ownership Trend in DevelopedWorld Shows a Flat/Slight Decline Population Per capita Cars per 1000 - Cars per 1000 (Million) 2025 (USD) 2009 – 2025 Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340 New York 25.9 67,591 230 220 London 14.4 57,746 400 340 Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270 Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122 São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335 Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350 Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72 Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155 Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250 Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475 Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173 Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320
  6. 6. Top 20 Mega Cities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion, low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging economieswill have a major impact on car mobility Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London TokyoBus Rapid 2011 2011Transit LanesMetro/Subway 2011Congestion Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned FutureChargingParking CutsRoad use 1 Week Day 1 week Day 1 Week Day Yes FutureCharging/Ban Ban Ban Ban*EV/HybridIncentivesBicycle Lanes CAFÉ 25%Emission Euro 3 Euro 27.5mpg. Euro 4 Euro Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 reductionStandard 4 by 2012 34.1 mpg 5 by 2011 by 2015 by 2016 Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan
  7. 7. Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMI to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split Telecom Operators Parking Operators Public Transport Current EVBus Rail OEMs Taxi Shared Mobility Bike/Car Pooling Online Mobility Booking Agency Long Distance Mobility Mobility Short Distance Integrator Urban Mobility Payment Tech Engine Solutions Provider MOBILE 2.0 LBS & Car Rental & Telematics New Opportunity Fleet Company EVER EXPANDING VALUE CHAIN
  8. 8. The Future of Urban Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART Connectivity Real-Time Information Vehicle Services Management Systems Smart Ticketing/AFC:V2V & V2X Apps Store Services Vehicle Sharing IT Infrastructure Electric VehiclesCommercial Vehicle Telematics Source: ETSI Congestion Source: ETSI Charging
  9. 9. Car of the Future - The Driverless Car
  10. 10. Urbanisation Drives a New Reality: From Cities Designed around Cars to CarsDesigned around Mega Cities: OEMs to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms CitiesNISSAN • ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city  Pixo, Note and Cube • Compact Vehicle: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm Though newer cars are • Low emissions: 1-litre engine, EV in future becoming city-centric, • Tight turning circle of 4.5m consumers are not relieved off • Power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffic hassles of purchase, • Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear maintenance, parking, seats, customizable setting congestion, insurance and inspection BMW • Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013. • Electro-mobility – ZEV (Li-ion battery with 35 kWh capacity ) • Electric drive - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive. • Lighter drive –CFRP passenger cell, Aluminum chassis. Mega Cities need not just a car, but a flexible, hassle-free mobilityTATA • City Car in EU and NA solution that is eco- • Compact Vehicle : 3099mm x 1,495mm friendly. • Low emissions; sub 1 litre engine (624cc), EV in future. • Turning radius: 4m. • Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
  11. 11. Urbanization Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs Vehicle length of CO2 less than 80 gm/ less than 3500mm km vehicles Mega City Cars Limited boot space Voice recognition and more head and technology leg room Start Stop System for Panoramic roofs frequent stop in traffic Lightweight Customised and construction personalised comfort functions Low speed collision avoidance for enhancedAutonomous parking assist safety and pedestrian protectionSimple and easy to use HMI 3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic information Smart vehicle access Source: Frost & Sullivan
  12. 12. Introduction to IT Mobility PlatformsA mobility platform can be based in the vehicle or smartphone or charging end, but cloudimpact is critical as diverse services are required to be delivered through this platform. IT Mobility Platforms Market: Introduction to IT Mobility Platforms, Europe and United States, 2010 Charging station access and location, state of charge, smart charging EV Consumer Services Car sharing reservation and Multimodal EV Back- location, multimodal transport IT Mobility Grid load monitoring, Transport End reminders, etc. Platforms Services forecasting, billing, V2G Services Connected Vehicle Services Real-time traffic, dynamic Platform based in the car/smartphone POI, Internet radio, social Platform based in EV charging infrastructure end networking, live TV, diagnostics, etc. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  13. 13. Mobile AppsDeveloped in a Variety of Fields Impacting Sustainability and New Age Mobility Dynamic Ride Sharing Others – Location-enabled e.g. RelayRides, Carticipate social networking, remote Dynamic Intermodal communication Transport Planning e.g. Foursquare, Viper e.g. Opti-Trans, Anystop SmartStart Augmented Reality Mobility App Parking Management and Applications Categories Payment Solutions e.g. Mobilizy e.g. Parking Dialogue Crowdsourced Navigation LBS Categories – e.g. Taxi and Traffic Application Booking Advanced Driver e.g. Waze, Inrix, Beat the e.g. 1TouchTaxi, TaxiZapp Assistance Services Traffic e.g. iOnRoad
  14. 14. Examples of Some Innovative Applications
  15. 15. Passenger Car Driving Dynamics, Driver Assistance andComfort Technologies to be Integrated beyond 2015 Dynamics Overtaking Assistant Intelligent Speed Curve Speed Adaptation Assistant Electric Power Steering Intersection Automatic Assistant Lane Keeping Parking Intelligent Management Parking Assist 360 Degree View Camera High Beam Assist Driver Attention Monitoring 2010 - 2015 Adaptive Cruise Collision Control Stop & Warning and Go Avoidance 2015 - 2020 Autonomous Driving beyond 2020 Safety Comfort Integration Opportunities Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  16. 16. Lateral and Longitudinal Guidance, Map Integration and Car to X Communication to Enable Autonomous Driving 2010 2015 2020 Steering Braking Blind Spot DetectionLateral Lane Changing Lateral Assistant Guidance Lane Departure Traffic Warning Light Assistant Autonomous Driving Overtake Assistant High Beam Steering Assist Car to Infrastructure Passive Safety E-Call (Seatbelt, Airbag) Car to Car Intelligent Parking Assist Pedestrian Traffic Intersectio Detection Jam Curve n Assistant Speed Weather & Warning Speed Limit Warning Protection Warning AssistantLongitudinal Traffic Sign Recognition Low Speed Night Vision Digital Map Data Collision Avoidance Longitudinal ACC Stop & Go Guidance High Speed Drivetrain Collision Drivetrain Avoidance Driver Attention Braking Monitoring Braking Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Development: Safety Systems Chassis Systems Applications/Functions Integration:
  17. 17. From Using Independent Sensors and Simple DrivingDynamics, the Rate of Automation will Increase Steadily Less More Automation Automation Intervening Semi- On-demand Fully Driver WarningDriver safety autonomous autonomous automated Chauffer /assist systems driving driving cars Driving Sensor Maps+ Independent V-V V-X Dynamics Fusion GPS Sensors Fully automated cars V-V Inputs, V-I Inputs Radar, Video, On-demand LIDAR, FIR autonomous driving Semi- autonomous driving Map data Yaw rate sensor Positioning dataSteering angle sensor Intervening Traffic data safety systemsWheel speed sensor Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
  18. 18. V2X Communication – Used to Look Ahead as a Virtual Sensor – Next Big Thing for Safety and Accident ReductionWeather , Emergencyvehicles, Traffic jams, Road Challengesworks, Road Condition, 1.Scalable and reliable communication systemMap/software update 2.Secutity issues 3.Availability (coverage area) 4.Certain market penetration necessary for availability 5.Needs cross industry synergy and government support for deployment Lane Departure Warning Side Assist Extended rear Extended Collision Rear collision Collision Collision Warning warning and Warning and Warning mitigation blind-spot Forward Collision Warning, Merging Assistance, Pre- Lane Change Crash Sensing/Warning Assistance Traffic Lights, Traffic Signs, Vehicle to vehicle communication Curves, Road charging Vehicle to Infrastructure communication Communication & sensor based Sensor based Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
  19. 19. Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure CommunicationLack of Road Infrastructure will make VMs reluctant to introduce V-X services Lack of Political Will Poor Deployment/Business Low User Acceptance Planning Inability to Market Legal/Regulatory Issues Risk Analysis Effectively Competition Lack of Finance Lack of Equipped Infrastructure Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  20. 20. Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure CommunicationCountries with Private Ownership of Road Infrastructure are More Likely to Invest inCooperative Systems Infrastructure France U.K. OBU: On-Board Unit Ownership: Public+Private Ownership: Public OBUs:1.25 Million OBUs:100,000 Spain Ownership: Public +Private OBUs: 300,000 Germany Ownership: Public Italy OBUs: 550,000 Ownership: Public +Private OBUs:5.4 Million Switzerland Austria Ownership: No data OBUs:80,000 Ownership: Public OBUs: 375,000 Source: Frost & Sullivan Norway Netherlands Demark Sweden Ownership: Private Ownership: Private +Private Ownership: No data Ownership: Private +Private OBUs:50,000 OBUs: 150,000 +Private OBUs:1.1 Million OBUs:120,000Note: OBU Unit Shipments include cars, commercial vehicles & buses and tolling for only trucks in Germany and Austria Source: Frost & Sullivan
  21. 21. Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure CommunicationBusiness Model – the complex business model involved makes deployment difficult for cooperativesystems Technology support Service Connectivity Regulator Regulation Service Platform Provider Provider Devices Software provider Road (Mobile) User devices Consumption provider Service Provider Road Traffic Operator Information Provider Government Parking Space Provider Geographic Insurance Subsidy Payment Information Provider Provider Provider Provider Production Finance Money Flow Source: Frost & Sullivan,Coopers,CVIS,Siemens
  22. 22. Autonomous Driving: The Driverless CarVision yet to materialize, although the industry has moved much closer to realizing it Source: Bosch Source: Bosch Smart Driving Collision avoidance + Automatic Emergency Braking Autonomous Driving: The Driverless Car (enabled by V-V / V-X)2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  23. 23. Frost & Sullivan’s Global Urban Mobility Research
  24. 24. Frost & Sullivan Global Urban Mobility Research Program Providing Continued Emphasis on Urban Mobility DevelopmentsYear Planned Research Regional Scope Strategic Analysis of the European and North American Urban Logistics Market in 2020 - Impact of the Europe and North2012 Mega Trends and Urbanisation Developments on Transport & Logistics Services, New Business Models, America and Commercial Vehicles Europe and North2012 Executive White Paper on Rise of Mobility Integrators and their Impact on Personal Mobility America2012 An Update on the Opportunities in the North American Market for Carsharing Services North America2012 An Update on the Opportunities in the European Market for Carsharing Services Europe2012 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Industry – 2012Edition Global Europe and North2012 Strategic Market and Competitive Analysis of Parking Management Systems in Europe and North America America2012 Benchmarking of Mobility Strategies of Global OEMs Global2012 Analysis of European Market for Fleet and Leasing Vehicles Europe2012 Strategic Analysis of Turkish Fleet and Leasing Vehicles Turkey2012 Analysis of Latin American Market for Fleet and Leasing Vehicles Latin America United States of2012 Analysis of U.S. Market for Fleet and Leasing Vehicles America2012 Future Mobility Trends and Analysis of Multi-Modal Mobility Strategies in Latin America Latin America The Car Sharing Market European Voice of the Customer Study – Awareness, Interest, Features,2012 Europe Willingness to Pay, Segmentation (Tentative) The Car Sharing Market U.S. Voice of the Customer Study – Awareness, Interest, Features, Willingness to United States of2012 Pay, Segmentation (Tentative) America
  25. 25. Frost & Sullivan Global Urban Mobility Research Program Existing Research Study Planned Research Regional Scope Code Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market - Rapid Urbanization StokingNA5E-18 Global Demand for Cost-Effective and Energy Efficient Mass Transit SolutionsNADC-18 Analysis of Chinese Electric Buses Market ChineseP5F7-18 Strategic Analysis of Car Sharing Market in APAC Asia PacificP5F5-18 Mobility Trends in Select Indian Cities IndiaP5C4-18 Strategic Analysis of Micro cars market in Japan Japan Beliefs and Attitudes Towards Environment and Personal Mobility Needs and Vehicle Preferences ofM79C-18 Europe EU Generation “Y” - 2010 Voice of Consumer Beliefs and Attitudes Towards Environment and Personal Mobility Needs and Vehicle Preferences ofN80C-18 North America U.S. Generation “Y” - 2010 Voice of Consumer Strategic Analysis of IT Mobility Platforms for European and North American Automotive Market - Europe and NorthM651-18 Billing and Smart Charging are Two Key Opportunity Areas in the EV Infrastructure Segment America Strategic Analysis of Medium-Heavy Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Markets in ChinaM7BB-18 India, China and India Strategic Analysis of Hybrid and Electric Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles in EMEAM783-18 EMEA Region Strategic Analysis of the North & South American Hybrid and Electric Medium-Heavy Truck North America, SouthN9FF-18 and Bus Markets America Connectivity, App Stores and Cloud-based Delivery Platforms Future of Connected InfotainmentM785-18 Global and Telematics Market
  26. 26. Frost & Sullivan Global Urban Mobility Research Program Existing ResearchStudy Code Existing Research Regional Scope Impact of Urbanization and Development of Megacities on Personal Mobility and Vehicle M5A9-18 Global Technology Planning M3FD-18 Executive Report on Insights and Solutions to Improve the Rural Mobility in the United Kingdom United Kingdom N748-18 Analysis of the Market for Carsharing in North America (2009) North America Sustainable and Innovative Personal Transport Solutions - Strategic Analysis of Carsharing Market M4FA-18 Europe in Europe (2009) P49C-18 Strategic Analysis of Car Sharing Market in Japan (2010) Japan Executive Assessment of New Business Models and their ROI for Vehicle Manufacturers; Utilities M3FC-18 Europe and Infrastructure Service Providers in the Electric Vehicle Market M5B7-18 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Industry – 2010 Edition Global M331-18 Executive Analysis of the Global Emergence of Personal Rapid Transit Systems Market Global M4DD-18 Opportunities in Global High Speed Rail Market Global M55D-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Microcars Market Europe N901-18 Strategic Overview of the North American Micro Electric Vehicles Market North America M77D-18 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Rail Industry Global