Three scenarios for the development of the power system. Presentation by Jussi Jyrinsalo/Fingrid. Fingrid Current 10.3.2020. In English.

1. Three scenarios
for the development
of the power system
in the Baltic Sea region
Fingrid Current 10 March 2020
Jussi Jyrinsalo @jyrinsalo #FingridCurrent

2. • Aiming for a clean, efficient and reliable system
• Ensuring the applicability of European rules and
methodologies to the Baltic Sea region by participating
in their development
• Collaboration on network planning provides insight into
various alternatives for the future and the impacts of
various alternatives
→ Also leads to better national choices
• The key outcomes of collaboration are joint scenarios
and network plans based on these scenarios –
European, Baltic Sea region and Nordic level
Regional collaboration
is important

3. ENTSO-E scenario stories
Many possible routes to the objectives
National Trends (NT)
National energy policy
• Based on the national
strategy, agreed EU targets
• Bottom-up
Distributed Energy (DE)
European energy policy
• Paris Agreement
• Decentralised system
• Top-down
Global Ambition (GA)
European energy policy
• Paris Agreement
• Centralised system
• Top-down

6. What kind of electricity transmission needs will arise?
A large amount of solar power, so the main direction of
transfer is south-to-north. Significant transfers between
Sweden and Finland.
A large amount of offshore wind power, leading to
transfers from Spain to the north and from the west to
the south-east.
Distributed Energy (DE) Global Ambition (GA)

7. What kind of electricity transmission needs
will arise?
2025 2030 2040
Initially develops similarly to Global Ambition (a lot of offshore wind power), but the increasing volume of
solar power causes transfers to even out to the middle-ground between the two top-down scenarios.

8. Baltic Sea region
transmissions will increase

9. Baltic Sea region transmission
connections are developed
Transmission connections ensure that markets continue
to function despite the challenge posed by wind power
• Synchronising the Baltic countries
• Closer link between the Nordic countries and
Central Europe
• North-to-south connections
In use
Under construction / decided
Under consideration / planned

10. We are also seeking alternative solutions:
• Making use of weather-dependent capacity of the transmission lines
(Dynamic Line Rating)
• Increasing the transmission capacity by improving the
voltage support
• Developing flexibility markets.
In 2020, we will update our national scenarios, but still based on
the regional scenarios:
• We will study the development and geographical distribution of wind power
and consumption (including sector coupling) in more detail
• We will include stakeholders in the processes of creating scenarios
and interpreting results
• We will take the results into consideration in the main grid development
plan for 2021 and begin preparing network reinforcements.
Growths in wind power and consumption
increase the need for transfers across
borders and within the country
CLEAR
ADDITIONAL NEED
NEED INCREASING
IN THE 2030s

11. Fingrid Oyj
Läkkisepäntie 21
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FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Tel. +358 30 395 5000
Fax. +358 30 395 5196