1. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
1/19
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

2. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
2/19
Contents
• Productivity growth in EU agriculture: recent evidence
• The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
• Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture and
its impact on land use
• Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

3. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
3/19
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
Total factor productivity growth by region, average growth rates p.a. (in %)
TFP index
World region
1990-1999 2000-2006
Western Europe 1.97 1.39
Eastern Europe 1.03 0.58
Middle East & North Africa 1.59 1.56
North America 2.13 1.75
Latin America & Carribean 2.38 2.48
Northeast Asia, developed 2.55 3.08
Southeast Asia 1.60 2.16
Former USSR 1.60 3.28
Oceania 1.90 –0.25
Source: Fuglie (2008).
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

4. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
4/19
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
Land productivity in EU wheat and maize production, 1961-2009 (in mt/ha)
Wheat Maize
8 8
y = 2,4474e
0,0272x
6 6
y = 2,0406e
0,0268x
4 4
2 2
0 0
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: Kirschke, Häger and Noleppa (2011).
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5. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
5/19
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
Annual productivity growth in German crop production, 1961-2009 (in %)
1961-1990 1991-2009
Wheat 2,4 1,1
Corn 3,2 2,0
Barley 2,2 0,7
Rye 1,7 1,0
OSR 2,4 1,7
Sugar beets 1,3 1,6
Potatoes 1,1 2,4
Protein crops 2,0 0,3
Source: von Witzke and Noleppa (2011, in press).
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

6. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
6/19
Productivity in EU agriculture: Recent evidence
There is a slowing down of productivity growth! What are the reasons?
• Public R&D funding:
- Slowing down in additional funding
- Priority change: non-productive vs. productivity research areas
• EU policy and regulatory framework:
- Focus on agri-environmental measures and extensification
- Very restrictive GMO policy
• Global aspects:
- Land availability is limited
- Use of marginal land
- Occurrence of resource degradation / soil erosion
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7. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
7/19
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
Agricultural land use in the European Union …
• Territory of the EU: 433 million hectares
• Utilized agricultural area: 180 million hectares
• Arable land: 107 million hectares
- in particular, cereals: 58 million hectares
• Grassland: 58 million hectares
.. is not enough to meet own demand.
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8. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
8/19
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
EU net imports of virtual agricultural land, 2001-2010 (in million hectares)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
On average
-10 in 2008-2010:
29 million hectares
-20
i.e. 27 percent of
-30
EU‟s arable land.
-40
Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat (2011) data.
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9. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
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The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
Structure of EU virtual net trade in agricultural land, on average 2008-2010:
• By region:
- South America: net imports of 20.0 million hectares,
- Sub-Sahara-Africa: net imports of 4.2 million hectares,
- CIS: net imports of 3.0 million hectares
- North Africa and the Near East: net exports of 3.6 million hectares.
• By crop:
- Soybeans: virtual net imports of 14.7 million hectares,
- Other oilseeds: virtual net imports of 7.4 million hectares,
- Coffee/Cocoa: virtual net imports of 6.2 million hectares,
- Wheat: virtual net exports of 2.0 million hectares.
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10. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
10/19
The land use of EU agriculture: at home and abroad
Soybeans: EU net imports of virtual land, 2001-2010 (in million hectares)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Soybeans Total
Source: Own calculations based on Eurostat (2011) data.
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11. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
11/19
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Closing the so-called “attainable yield gap” (acc. to Hendijk et al., 2009):
• Attainable yield: yield that can be realized with existing technologies at
prevailing prices.
• Attainable yield gap: difference between actual and attainable yield.
• Drivers of change:
more sufficient application of labor and machinery, introduction of
modern phytosanitary methods and crop rotations, knowledge transfers
• Yield effects, e. g., assuming attainable yield gap is closed by one third:
- wheat: 16.1 percent,
- sugar beets: 8.7 percent,
- oilseeds: 26.5 percent.
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

12. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
12/19
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Changes of EU trade in virtual land by commodity (in million hectares)
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
Wheat
Corn
Other cereals
Imports of land
Rice
Soybeans
decline by about
Palm
Oilseed rape
18 million hectares.
Other oilseeds
Coffee and cocoa
Tea and tobacco Less imports, e.g.,
Fruit
Vegetables and potatoes in corn & oilseeds.
Pulses
Sugar crops
Cotton
More exports, e.g.,
Sum
in wheat
Source: Own calculations.
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

13. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
13/19
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
Changes of EU trade in virtual land by region (in million hectares)
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
North America Land use in
South America South America
Asia does not profit
North Africa and the Near East too much.
Sub-Sahara-Africa
Europa (excl. EU) This would partly
CIS change if higher
Oceania
production in the
Rest of the world
EU would replace
Sum
soy in animal feed.
Source: Own calculations.
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14. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
14/19
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
What does this have to do with environmental responsibility?
• Currently and in the „mid-term‟ future:
agricultural demand will increase faster than agricultural supply.
• I.e., growth in agricultural production has to speed up.
• This can be achieved by using more land and/or producing more on land.
• It adds pressure on global land as most productive soils are already used.
• Already now, land use changes are a main driver of GHG emissions.
• In addition, sensitive ecosystems may be endangered in terms of
biodiversity and other environmental parameters.
• Hence, productivity growth is a very meaningful way out of the dilemma to
produce more food, feed, fuel, and fiber and to protect the environment.
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

15. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
15/19
Potential productivity growth in EU agriculture
and its impact on land use
The „golden‟ or „responsibility‟ triangle of productivity growth in agriculture
Increasing
food
supply
Productivity
growth in
agriculture
Increasing Increasing
environmental climate
benefits protection
Source: Own figure.
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16. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
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Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Summary on main findings:
• EU is a leading net importer in both agricultural commodities and
virtually traded agricultural land.
• Increasing EU production and productivity growth might be able to
significantly reduce net imports and pressure on the environment.
• Investing in productivity of crops for which the EU is relatively more
competitive than the ROW may act to increase land use efficiency.
• But, obviously, the EU is lagging behind in agricultural productivity
growth due to a number of reasons. The question is: What to do?
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17. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
17/19
Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
Policy contributions:
• It is time to rediscover the neglected issue productivity in policy making!
• A re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand is
necessary (e.g., environmental policies, bio-energy policies, regulations).
• Policy should create a stable and reliable environment for future
investments in agriculture enabling farmers to use modern technologies.
• Policy makers need to re-focus R&D funding: volume and priorities.
• EU responsibility for global developments (e.g., indirect land use
changes) has to take into account by the CAP more than at present.
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

18. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
18/19
Conclusions: The policy and research perspective
(Selected) research contributions:
• With respect to land use: visualize impacts of changes in supply and
demand on land use changes and associated issues.
• This should include the assessment of developments in production
structures (e.g. protein production) and consumption (e.g. meat demand).
• With respect to future productivity growth: improved breeding activities
and agronomic practices.
• By doing so, a more systemic view seems necessary.
• Finally, awareness that agricultural research is socially highly profitable
(economic and environmental profitability!) needs to be strengthened .
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –

19. Toward more efficient land use
How agricultural productivity growth may
contribute to environmental responsibility
19/19
Thank you for your attention.
Dr. Steffen Noleppa
agripol – network for policy advice GbR
Schivelbeiner Str. 21, 10439 Berlin (Germany)
noleppa@agripol.de
www.agripol.net
Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources –