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October 7, 2009,[object Object],Leslie Appleton-Young,[object Object],C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist,[object Object],2010 California Real Estate Market ForecastCalifornia REALTOR® EXPO,[object Object]
US and California Economic Conditions,[object Object]
2010 Real Estate Forecast
Historic Fiscal Stimulus,[object Object],Fiscal Policy: “Spend Now – Worry Later”,[object Object],	 To date: $3 trillion in government spending,[object Object],MBS purchases ($693 billion),[object Object],TARP ($372 billion) ,[object Object],Obama stimulus package ($304 billion),[object Object],	Cash for Clunkers,[object Object],	First-time Buyer Tax Credit,[object Object],	Extension of Unemployment Benefits,[object Object],	Tax Cuts,[object Object],Result: Federal budget deficit will reach 1.6 trillion this year ,[object Object]
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation,[object Object],Mortgage Rates and Monetary Policy“Whatever it Takes”,[object Object]
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation – 30-yr FRM,[object Object],Federal Reserve Board – 10-Year T-Bond,[object Object],30-Year FRM vs. 10-Year T-Bond ,[object Object], Above-Average Risk Premiums Associated With Mortgage Loans,[object Object],Lower spread in 2009 - FED purchases,[object Object],from Fannie and Freddie,[object Object],Average. Risk Premium: 1.6%,[object Object]
Consumer Price Index,[object Object],August 2009: All Items -1.4% YTY; Core 1.5% YTY,[object Object],PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984,[object Object]
Gross Domestic Product,[object Object],2008: +0.4%;  2009P -2.6%;  Q2: -0.7%,[object Object],ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $,[object Object],ANNUAL,[object Object],QTRLY,[object Object]
QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE,[object Object],Personal Consumption,[object Object],2009 Q2: -0.87%,[object Object],SOURCE:  US  Dept of Commerce, ,[object Object],Bureau of Economic Analysis,[object Object]
U.S. Savings Rate: 1960 – 2009Is increase Permanent or Temporary?,[object Object],SOURCES: BEA S&P 500,[object Object]
Consumer Behavior: Permanent Change or Temporary Hiatus From Spending?,[object Object],“Credit impaired lower income consumers can’t spend the way they used to and wealth impaired affluent consumers won’t.”,[object Object],UCLA Forecast 9/09,[object Object]
INDEX, 100=1985,[object Object],Consumer Confidence Index: Better…Sort Of,[object Object],August 2009: 54.5    September 2009: 53.1,[object Object]
DJI,[object Object],Monthly Avg.,[object Object],Dow Jones Stock Price and Consumer Confidence,[object Object],30 Industrial Index vs. Consumer Confidence Index 1987-2009,[object Object],Cons.,[object Object], Conf.,[object Object]
PERCENT CHANGE  FROM A YEAR AGO,[object Object],Retail Sales,[object Object],2009 August - 6.0% YTY,[object Object]
Unemployment Rate,[object Object],California (8/09 12.2%) vs. United States (9/09 9.8%),[object Object],SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division,[object Object]
Employment Growth, California vs. U.S. 8/09 CA: -4-9% YTY  9/09 US: -4.2% YTY,[object Object],YEAR TO YEAR % CHANGE,[object Object],SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division,[object Object]
Nonfarm Employment By Region,[object Object],SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division,[object Object]
Employment by Sector,[object Object],YTY % Changes in California 2008-2010,[object Object],% Change,[object Object],SOURCE: CA EDD, LAEDC,[object Object]
New Housing Permits,[object Object],California, 1988-2009: Down 48.8% YTD,[object Object],SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board,[object Object]
Distressed Commercial RE Growing,[object Object],Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO.,[object Object],billions,[object Object]
Commercial Debt Crisis Ahead,[object Object],billions,[object Object]
Commercial MBS Market,[object Object],billions,[object Object]
California Real Estate Market,[object Object]
California’s Housing Cycles and Membership1970-2009,[object Object],THOUSANDS,[object Object]
Sales Hit Bottom in 2007, Up in 2008 & 2009,[object Object],UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $,[object Object],-44%,[object Object],-25%,[object Object],California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price,[object Object],-61%,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Dollar Volume of Sales Peaked in ’05Down 55% Thru ‘09,[object Object],% Change,[object Object],$ in Billion,[object Object],-55%,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence,[object Object],California, August 2009 Sales: 526,970 Units, Up 38.2% YTD, Up 9.0% YTY,[object Object],INDEX,[object Object],UNITS,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board,[object Object],*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized ,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],California, August 2009: $292,960, Down 16.9% YTY,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Sales By Price RangeOctober 2004 – present,[object Object],Credit Freeze: 8/2007,[object Object],SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.,[object Object]
California vs U.S. Median Prices 1970-2009,[object Object],     1970: CA $24,640   US $23,000,[object Object],2009: CA $271,000   US $172,600,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Peak vs Current Price - August 2009,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Unsold Inventory Index,[object Object],California, August 2009: 4.3 Months,[object Object],MONTHS,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Unsold Inventory Index (Months),[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Unsold Inventory Index: Over & Under $500K,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Regional Markets,[object Object]
Home Sales in Northern California,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],Northern California,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Home Sales in Northern Wine Country,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],Northern Wine Country,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Home Sales in Bay Area Counties,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],Bay Area Counties,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Home Sales in Central Valley Region,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],Central Valley Regions,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Home Sales in Central Coast Region,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Home Sales in Southern California Regions,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes,[object Object],Southern California Regions,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
2010 Real Estate Forecast
A Tale of Two Markets:San Mateo & Hayward,[object Object],San Mateo, Sep 2009:,[object Object],      Median Price: $698,000 Down 15% YTY,[object Object],      54 SF Det Units Sold, Up 26% YTY,[object Object],      2.0 Months of Supply, Down 45% YTY,[object Object],      206 Properties For Sale, Down 20% YTY,[object Object],      173 NODs, 119 Foreclosures, 42 REOS,[object Object],Hayward, Sep 2009:,[object Object],      Median Price: $280,000 Down 12% YTY,[object Object],      116 SF Det Units Sold, Down 13% YTY,[object Object],      1.0 Month of Supply, Down 77% YTY,[object Object],      391 Properties For Sale, Down 65% YTY,[object Object],      895 NODs, 811 Foreclosures, 324 REOS,[object Object],Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.,[object Object]
A Tale of Two Markets:Pleasanton & Brentwood,[object Object],Brentwood, Sep 2009:,[object Object],      Median Price: $283,600 Down 19% YTY,[object Object],      70 SF Det Units Sold, Down 33% YTY,[object Object],      1.2 Months of Supply, Down 74% YTY,[object Object],      322 Properties For Sale, Down 46% YTY,[object Object],      476 NODs, 424 Foreclosures, 190 REOS,[object Object],Pleasanton, Sep 2009:,[object Object],      Median Price: $685,000, Down 13% YTY,[object Object],      63 SF Det Units Sold, Up 91% YTY,[object Object],      3.0 Months of Supply, Down 55% YTY,[object Object],      239 Properties For Sale, Down 34% YTY,[object Object],      165 NODs, 97 Foreclosures, 29 REOS,[object Object],Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.,[object Object]
A Tale of Two Markets:Walnut Creek & Concord,[object Object],Concord, Sep 2009:,[object Object],      Median Price: $290,000, Down 16% YTY,[object Object],      66 SF Det Units Sold, Down 35% YTY,[object Object],      1.0 Month of Supply, Down 72% YTY,[object Object],      283 Properties For Sale, Down 52% YTY,[object Object],      605 NODs, 413 Foreclosures, 239 REOS,[object Object],Walnut Creek, Sep 2009:,[object Object],      Median Price: $650,000 Down 13% YTY,[object Object],      39 SF Det Units Sold, Up 18% YTY,[object Object],      3.0 Months of Supply, Down 34% YTY,[object Object],      216 Properties For Sale, Down 19% YTY,[object Object],      207 NODs, 132 Foreclosures, 59 REOS,[object Object],Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.,[object Object]
A Tale of Two Markets:Laguna Beach & Temecula,[object Object],Laguna Beach, Sep 2009:,[object Object], Median Price: $1,370,000, -20% YTY,[object Object], 29 SF Det Units Sold, Up 142%  YTY,[object Object], 12.0 Months of Supply, Down 48% YTY,[object Object], 388 Properties For Sale, Up 2% YTY,[object Object],75 NODs, 52 Foreclosures, 14 REOS,[object Object],Temecula, Sep 2009:,[object Object], Median Price: $270,000 Down 7% YTY,[object Object], 153 SF Det Units Sold, Down 19% YTY,[object Object], 1.0 Months of Supply, Down 80% YTY,[object Object], 667 Properties For Sale, Down 56% YTY,[object Object],845 NODs, 821 Foreclosures, 276 REOS,[object Object],Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.,[object Object]
A Tale of Two Markets:Santa Barbara & Santa Maria,[object Object],Santa Barbara, Sep 2009:,[object Object], Median Price: $760,200, Down 26% YTY,[object Object], 54 SF Det Units Sold, Down 4% YTY,[object Object], 7.0 Months of Supply, Down 36% YTY,[object Object], 463 Properties For Sale, Down 4% YTY,[object Object],147 NODs, 139 Foreclosures, 48 REOS,[object Object],Santa Maria, Sep 2009:,[object Object], Median Price: $262,750 Up 2% YTY,[object Object], 64 SF Det Units Sold, Down 36% YTY,[object Object], 2.0 Months of Supply, Down 69% YTY,[object Object], 2208 Properties For Sale, Down 65% YTY,[object Object], 432 NODs, 432 Foreclosures, 180 REOS,[object Object],Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.,[object Object]
Year-to-Year Percent Change in Sales,[object Object],By Price Interval,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.,[object Object]
Year-to-Year Percent Change in Median Price,[object Object],Within Price Interval,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object],SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.,[object Object]
Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio,[object Object],(Aug 2009),[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Distressed Sales vs. Non Distressed Sales,[object Object],Source: C.A.R. 2009 Housing Market Survey,[object Object]
Percent of Distressed Properties ,[object Object],Q. Was the property purchased/sold as a foreclosure, REO, short sale, or none of the above?,[object Object],Source: C.A.R. 2009 Housing Market Survey,[object Object]
2009 Housing Market Survey,[object Object]
Median Price Discount And ,[object Object],Weeks On Market,[object Object],4.6%, 6.4 weeks,[object Object],Q. What was the original list sales price of the property?  What was the final sales price of the property?  How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS?,[object Object]
Percent with Price Discount,[object Object],Selling price below listing price,[object Object],Long Run Average = 68%,[object Object],Q. What was the original list sales price of the property?  What was the final sales price of the property?  ,[object Object]
Median Net Cash To Sellers,[object Object],2005: $220K   2009: $50K,[object Object],$50,000,[object Object],Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?,[object Object]
Sellers Reporting a Net Cash LossPercent of All Sellers,[object Object],Long Run Average = 9.3%,[object Object],Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?,[object Object]
Proportion of Home Sellers Planning to Repurchase,[object Object],Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?,[object Object]
Proportion of First-Time HomebuyersCalifornia,[object Object],Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?,[object Object]
FHA and VA Mortgages,[object Object],(First Mortgage),[object Object],Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage,[object Object]
FHA vs. Conventional(New First Mortgages),[object Object]
Multiple Offers:,[object Object],Over 1/2 homes sold 2009 had multiple offers,[object Object]
Percent of Buyers with Zero Down Payment,[object Object],First-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers,[object Object],5.0%,[object Object],3.7%,[object Object],2.8%,[object Object]
Percent of All Cash Sales,[object Object]
Buyer Use of Property,[object Object],(All Homes),[object Object]
Buyer Use of Property,[object Object],(Single-Family Detached Homes),[object Object]
Buyer Use of Property,[object Object],(Condos/Townhomes),[object Object]
Sellers Are Reacting to Financial Stress,[object Object],The Role of Market Conditions In the Decision to Sell,[object Object],Signs of Distress in 2008-2009,[object Object],SOURCE: C.A.R. 2009 Survey of Home Sellers,[object Object]
While Buyers See Opportunities …,[object Object],The Role Of Market ConditionsIn The Decision To Buy,[object Object],SOURCE: C.A.R. 2009 Survey of Home Buyers,[object Object]
The Bottom Line: Great Time to be a First Time Buyer,[object Object]
First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index,[object Object],California Vs. U.S. 2000-2009,[object Object],% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]
Federal First-Time Buyer Tax Credit,[object Object],[object Object]
Retroactive to January 1, 2009
Extended/modified version of 2008 Tax CreditCurrent expiration November 30, 2009,[object Object],6 month extension under deliberation,[object Object],[object Object]
California Results – 39% of first-timers would not have bought in 2009 w/o tax credit (C.A.R. Survey),[object Object]
Level of Difficulty to Obtain Financing(All Buyers),[object Object],Mean = 8.1  Median = 9,[object Object],Scale: “1” = very easy, “10” = very difficult,[object Object],Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult. ,[object Object]
Reasons Why Property Fell Out of EscrowAll Homes,[object Object],Q. Do you know why the property fell out of escrow previously?,[object Object]
Buyers Who Know the Terms of Their Loan,[object Object],Q. Do you know the term of your loan?,[object Object]
FHA Loans in CA,[object Object],# of Total Loans in CA & US,[object Object],CA Endorsements,[object Object],US Endorsements,[object Object],CA Tops All States with a 10% Market Share of all FHA Lending in US ,[object Object],(Source: Inside FHA Lending),[object Object],Source: HUD ,[object Object]
CA Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates,[object Object],California: Q2-2009, NSA,[object Object],Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.1%,[object Object],Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.0%,[object Object],SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association,[object Object]
California Subprime & Alt A Loans,[object Object],As of May 2009,[object Object],SOURCE: FirstAmerican CoreLogic, LoanPerformance Data, U.S. Census Bureau, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York, compiled by C.A.R.,[object Object]
NODs & Trustees Deeds Filed in California,[object Object],2005 - 2009,[object Object],No. of Defaults or TDs,[object Object],Source: DataQuick Information Systems,[object Object]
California Foreclosure Activity 09/06 - present,[object Object],Government Intervention,[object Object],SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com,[object Object]
California Foreclosure Activity 2008 - present,[object Object],September 18, 2008:,[object Object], Paulson asks For TARP Funds,[object Object],September 2008:,[object Object], CA SB 1137 Takes Effect,[object Object],Government Intervention,[object Object],March 4, 2009:,[object Object],Making Home Affordable/HAMP,[object Object],February 20, 2009:,[object Object], CA Foreclosure Prevention Act,[object Object],February 11 2009:,[object Object],Frank’s Moratorium Request,[object Object],SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com,[object Object]
2010 Forecast,[object Object]
Wild Cards,[object Object],[object Object]
Additional Stimulus – Job Creation Prerequisite to Sustainable Growth
Foreclosure Pipeline
Commercial Defaults – Impact on Credit Market
Inflation - Will Fed monetize the deficit?
H1N1 (Stock tip: Purell),[object Object]
California Economy,[object Object],Forecast Date: October 2009,[object Object],SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®,[object Object]

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