Risk Management - From an Adventure to a Venture... Princess Elisabeth Antarctica

1. From an Adventure to a Venture...
Princess Elisabeth Antarctica
FERMA Risk Management Seminar
Versailles, France - 23 October 2012

4. HAAKON VII SEA
WEDDELL SEA
AMERY ICE SHELF
RONNE
ICE SHELF
BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA
DAVIS SEA
AMUNDSEN
SEA
ROSS
ICE SHELF
MAWSON SEA
ROSS SEA
DUMONT D'URVILLE SEA
S O U T H E R N O C E A N

5. Overcoming Challenges
Unprecedented - NGO leading project for a national station
Financial challenges: 16M€ (private sector) + 6M€ (public)
Technical challenges: prototype development from existing technologies
Logistic challenges: no existing infrastructures in Antarctica
Building partner networks (tech, logistics, financial, best practice)
Foresee future management strategy
Continuous evolution towards Zero Emissions

6. Princess Elisabeth & IPY

11. First
Zero Emission station

12. The Challenges
Offloadingthe material on sea ice
Offloading
the material A non stop working
Extreme weather conditions Travelling through hazardous terrain with crevasses
Extreme weather conditions

13. Innovating towards Zero Emissions
Material choice: the skin
Wall thickness: 53cm
8 layers (inside to outside):
Felt
Vapor barrier
Massive wood (lamellate)
Polystyrene (40 cm graphite-polystyrene)
Massive wood
EPDM
Expanded foam
Stainless steel

14. Energy production Control & Supply Variable Demand
Limited production capacity Balance available energy & cumulated request Energy request
Energy production prioritization
Dynamic Control & Supply Variable Demand
Limited production capacity Balance available energy & cumulated request Energy request
Dynamic prioritization
Backup Generator
Priority 1
Backup Generator
Priority 1
security
PLC
Water Treatment Unit
security
PLC
Water Treatment Unit
Priority 2
Programmable
Wind turbines Logic Controller Priority 2 Snow Melter Unit
Programmable
Wind turbines Logic Controller Snow Melter Unit
station operations
station operations
Ventilation Unit
Ventilation Unit
Priority 3 Priority 3
science
Solar thermal science
Solar thermal
Priority 4
Priority 4
daily life
daily life
Solar panels
Priority 5
Solar panels
Backup Generator Battery storage Priority 5 entertainment
Backup Generator Battery storage entertainment

15. Renewable Energies:
Batteries as buffer

17. Life inside the Station

29. www.antarcticstation.org

31. Polar Regions &
Climate Change

32. What We know about Temperature

33. What We Know About CO2 Concentration
CO2 annual
mean data 2011
391.57 ppm
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

34. Climate Archive, Earth Observation
390 ppm
10 000 years: neolithic
revolution
500 000 years: mastery of fire

35. EPICA Ice Core
Proxy Temperatures & CO2
390 ppmv
Temperature °C
ppmv CO2
2010
Sources: Jouzel, J., et al. 2007. and Lüthi, D., et al.. 2008

37. 8 Jul 2012 Credit: Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA 12 Jul 2012

38. Climate Tipping Points
A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a
strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the
climate system, qualitatively changing its future state.
Climate Tipping Points (Allianz 2011)
Drought, Ice Melting, Changing Oceans, Dying Forests, Changing
Ecosystems
Ice melting: Arctic Sea Ice, Continental Ice Caps, Greenland Ice
Sheet, Permafrost, West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North (Lloyd’s 2012)
Climate Protection and Adaptation to Global Warming (Munich Re)

39. Main Interactions between Thresholds
Melting of Greenland ice-sheets
Reduction of warming
around Greenland Large
Changes in freshwater input ice-sheets
Melting of Greenland
Cooling of north-east Reduction of warming
ocean circulation
around Greenland
tropical Pacific Large
Changes in freshwater input Sea-level rise
Changes inCooling of north-east ocean circulation
atmospheric tropical Pacific destabilising the
Amazon Changes in in Changes in Antarctic ice-sheet
Sea-level rise
water supply dieback Changes destabilising the
Shift of
atmospheric Amazon
water cycle saltwater gradient Changes in Antarctic ice-sheet
water supply dieback Changes in
El Niño Shift of
Changes in El Niño Heat to water cycle
saltwater gradient
atmospheric Southern Ocean
Changes in Heat to
atmospheric Southern Ocean
moisture supply moisture supply
Drying over Drying over
Amazoniaia
Amazoniaia
Warming of Ross Disintegration of West
Warming of Ross Disintegration of
and Amundsen Seas West Antarctic ice-sheet Sketch of the main interactions
and Amundsen Seas Antarctic ice-sheet (in green) between potential
Sketch of the main interactions
thresholds (in blue)3.
(in green) between potential
thresholds (in blue)3.
INTERACTIONS
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, Walker Institute, Tyndallunderstand that many Institute for Climate Change. (2010).
Climate scientists now Centre and Grantham Tropical Pacific 3 Adapted from expert consultation
INTERACTIONS
AVOID Flyer: Risks of dangerous climate change. dangerous climate changes are
potentially
• El Niño4 in the Tropical Pacific has a
study: Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held
H, Dawson R and Schellnhuber
linked (see schematic).
profound effect on the climate of the HJ. 2009: Imprecise probability
Climate scientists now understand that many over very large Pacific
These links, which can act Tropical surrounding region and widespread impacts
3 Adapted from expert consultatio
assessment of tipping points in
potentially dangerous climate changes are
distances, have the potential to greatly around the world. study: Kriegler PROCEEDINGSHeld
the climate system. E, Hall JW,
increase the impacts resulting fromEl Niño in the Tropical Pacific has a
• just one 4 OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF
H, DawsonTHEand Schellnhuber
R UNITED STATES
linked (see schematic). • El Niño affects rainfall patterns in the SCIENCES OF
type of dangerous event. However,profound effect on the climate of the
the HJ.AMERICA. Volume: 106, Issue:
OF 2009: Imprecise probability
Tropics. Changes in El Niño could change
These links, which can act strength of the links cannot yet be reliably
over very large surrounding the supply of moisture to the Amazon,
region and widespread impacts assessment of tipping points in
13, Pages: 5041-5046.
quantified. the climate system. PROCEEDING

40. Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Global Sea-level Rise, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-sea-level-rise

41. Source: www.ice2sea.eu

42. Adaptation?

43. Adaptation to Climate Change
EU
European Climate Change Programme
Climate Adaptation Platform
European Environment Agency EEA
Urban Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (2012)
UK
Climate Change Risk Assessment (Jan 2012)
National Adaptation Programme (2013)
and many more National Adaptation Strategies...

44. Understanding the Poles...
...to Build a Sustainable Future

45. Thank You!