This presentation formed part of the Farming Futures event 'FarmWater Futures'. 30th March 2010

1. Farm Water Futures
What can you do to make your business fit for the future?
30th March 2010
Claire Wyatt
Forum for the Future

2. Outline of presentation
• Why hold an event like today?
• How does agriculture contribute to climate change?
• The political landscape
• Opportunities and Risks
• What are some farmers already doing?
Profitable business in a changing climate

3. What is Farming Futures?
Profitable business in a changing climate

4. Information and inspiration
• Partnerships
• Fact sheets
• Case studies
• On-farm events
• Media profile
Profitable business in a changing climate

5. Profitable business in a changing climate

6. So, why is everyone talking
about climate change?

7. The indisputable truth…
Its warmer…
>1°C
Figure: Changes in Central England Temperature from 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the
1961-90 baseline period (about 9.5 ºC). (Source: Met Office Hadley Centre)

8. Profitable business in a changing climate

9. 50% believe
climate
change is
having an
effect now
Profitable business in a changing climate

10. 50% believe 63% think
climate climate
change is change will
having an have an effect
effect now in next 10
years
Profitable business in a changing climate

11. 50% believe 63% think
climate climate
change is 31% are taking change will
having an action to adapt have an effect
effect now to the impacts in next 10
of climate years
change
Profitable business in a changing climate

12. Agriculture and climate change
• Agriculture contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas
emissions:
• < 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2)
• ~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4)
• ~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O)
Profitable business in a changing climate

13. And it’s going to keep on changing…
2020: +1.3°C
Max summer Average winter
temperature
temperature by
2050: +2.2°C
2050 up 3-4°C
2080: +3°C
Medium
emissions
scenario –
OPTIMISTIC!
High emissions
scenario mean
summer temp
by 2080: +4.9°C
Profitable business in a changing climate

14. What about rainfall?
2020: -8%
Winter rainfall Summer rainfall
up 10-20% by
2050 2050: -20%
2080: -24%
Medium
emissions
scenario –
OPTIMISTIC!
High emissions
scenario by
2080: -30%
Profitable business in a changing climate

15. The political landscape
Profitable business in a changing climate

16. Targets and action plans
• Renewable Energy Strategy - 15% total energy by 2020
• 30-40% of our elec from renewables
• Low carbon transition plan – 11% by 2020
• GHG Action Plan (Climate change task force)
• Campaigns and services
• Act on CO2
• Defra Advisory Service
• Carbon Trust loans
• Food security
• Increase production
Profitable business in a changing climate

17. Low Carbon Transition Plan
Profitable business in a changing climate

18. What about water?
• 1.3 million hectares of farmland in floodplains
• 40% loss of produce (2007) – £7-19m
• Climate change could increase demand for
irrigation by 50% by 2050
• This is for all farmers
• Prices going up
• Abstraction licences
• Opportunities to save
Profitable business in a changing climate

19. Who’s here to help?
• Environment Agency - Water resources strategy
• Environment Agency - Rainwater as a resource
• Farming Futures - Water management fact sheet
• UK Irrigation Association - reports and publications
Profitable business in a changing climate

20. How?
• Improved efficiency and productivity
• Renewables
• Flood management
• Soil and Manure management
• Water management and harvesting
• Read the fact sheets and booklets!
Profitable business in a changing climate

21. What are farmers already doing?
Case study farmer – Elwyn Griffiths
Profitable business in a changing climate

22. Conclusions
• Good news for UK farmers:
• Convergence of the food economy and the energy economy
• Wider environmental goals
• Global effects on world agriculture, and energy security issues
• Potential for increased yields under warming + CO2
• Cost savings via adaptation, efficiencies and mitigation tech
• Uncertainties remain:
• Drought
• Need to adapt and mitigate – costs and risks
• Plan for uncertainties through more conserved feeds and
mix of crops and harvest / sowing times. Multi-purpose
land use.
Profitable business in a changing climate

23. Any questions?
• www.farmingfutures.org.uk
• Claire Wyatt (project manager):
c.wyatt@forumforthefuture.org.uk
07825 204434
0207 324 3670
Thank you!
Profitable business in a changing climate