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FWD50 2018 - How minds change

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David McRaney (You Are Not So Smart)

David’s talk will be about how minds change, specifically, the psychology behind how we develop new normals and update our beliefs, attitudes, and values – sometimes very, very rapidly. He’ll explain that no one is unreachable, no one is unpersuadable, change is inevitable, though we do resist. He’ll show why resistance is necessary, and the most vehement forms of resistance, and what he knows about how to bypass that resistance.

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FWD50 2018 - How minds change

  1. 1. David McRaney Lecture sources and links at: youarenotsosmart.com davidmcraney@gmail.com youarenotsosmart.com @davidmcraney @notsmartblog
  2. 2. Blakemoore and Cooper 1970
  3. 3. “At any given time, we’re in a box which defines the world and tells us what it is. These definitions constrain what we think, and also what we can think.” - James Burke, science historian
  4. 4. Perceptual Crisis “I’ll be damned if I know now whether it's red or what!" “It didn't even look like a card that time.” “I'm not even sure now what a spade looks like! My God!”
  5. 5. Number of Anomalies Response Time Invisible Middle Ground New Category The Shock of Recognition
  6. 6. “Novelty emerges only with difficulty, manifested by resistance, against a background provided by expectation.” - Thomas Kuhn, philosopher of science When you don’t know what you don’t know, you only see what you expect to see.
  7. 7. 10% 20% 40% 80%
  8. 8. 10% 20%10% 20% 40% 80% 0 25 50 75 100 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
  9. 9. 10% 20% 0 25 50 75 100 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 10% 20% 40% 80%
  10. 10. 10% 20% 40% 80% 0 25 50 75 100 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
  11. 11. 10% 20% 40% 80% 0 25 50 75 100 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Affective Tipping Point
  12. 12. The moment after which people can no longer justify ignoring an onslaught of disconfirmatory evidence. When the brain realizes its models are incorrect or incomplete, it switches from conservation to active learning. The brain has two competing goals: • Maintain the coherence of its models of reality: Resist Mode • Maintain the usefulness of its models of reality: Update Mode First Twinge of Doubt 15% Tipping Point 30% Affective Tipping Point
  13. 13. Source: College Humor
  14. 14. Alistair Croll "On the Internet, when you say I want grilled cheese you're not actually presenting an argument for grilled cheese. You're saying, ‘Help me find the Grilled Cheese Room, because that's what I want, and I'm going to go find like-minded grilled cheese enthusiasts.’” “You're helping the machines search for the group you want to be a part of as opposed to using the machine to have a conversation with the group you're with.”
  15. 15. Dan Sperber Hugo Mercier The Argumentative Theory Reasoning is social. It evolved to facilitate group decision making.
 
 Reason’s function isn’t to search for truth but to find reasons for your own perspective that are most likely to convince others that your inferences and hunches are correct. This allows individuals to remain strongly biased when presenting their points of view because they can depend on the group to pick apart their bad ideas. When we argue with ourselves, we win.
  16. 16. David McRaney Lecture sources and links at: youarenotsosmart.com davidmcraney@gmail.com youarenotsosmart.com @davidmcraney @notsmartblog

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