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Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing: Part I E. Andrew Boyd Chief Scientist and Senior VP, Science and Research PROS Revenue Management [email_address]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Revenue Management in Concept
What is Revenue Management? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is Revenue Management? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rudiments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Industry Popularity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Industry Accolades ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analyst Accolades ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Academic Accolades ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Academic Accolades ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Application Areas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dynamic Pricing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Traditional Revenue Management ,[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Managing Airline Inventory
Airline Inventory ,[object Object],EWR SEA LAX IAH ATL ORD
Airline Inventory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Airline Inventory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fare Product Mix ,[object Object],EWR SEA LAX IAH ATL ORD
Fare Product Mix ,[object Object],EWR SEA LAX IAH ATL ORD
Fare Product Mix ,[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Components
The Real-Time Transaction Processor Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory
The Revenue Management System Revenue Management System Forecasting Optimization Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory
Analysts Revenue Management System Forecasting Optimization Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory Analyst Decision Support
The Revenue Management Process Revenue Management System Forecasting Optimization Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory Analyst Decision Support
Real-Time Transaction Processor ,[object Object]
Real-Time Transaction Processor DFW EWR Y Avail M Avail B Avail Q Avail 110 60 20 0 DFW-EWR:  $1000 Y  $650 M  $450 B  $300 Q
Real-Time Transaction Processor ,[object Object],DFW EWR Y Avail M Avail B Avail Q Avail 110 60 20 0 DFW-EWR:  $1000 Y  $650 M  $450 B  $300 Q M Class Booking  109 59
Real-Time Transaction Processor ,[object Object],SAT DFW EWR Y Class M Class B Class Q Class 50 10 0 0 Y Class M Class B Class Q Class 110 60 20 0
Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010710 225300 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSG 01 OA 3210 LAX IAH K 010824 1500 010824 2227 010824 2200 010825 0227 HK OA 0 0  PSG 01 OA 9312 IAH MYR K 010824 2330 010825 0037 010825 0330 010825 0437 HK OA 0 0  PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010711 125400 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1300 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0  PSO 01 EV 4281 Y  PSG 01 OA 4281 MYR IAH Y 010902 0600 010902 0714 010902 1000 010902 1114 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 5932 IAH LAX K 010902 0800 010902 0940 010902 1200 010902 1640 HK OA 0 0 PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010712 142000 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1300 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0 PSO 01 EV 4281 Y  PSG 01 OA 4281 MYR IAH L 010903 0600 010903 0714 010903 1000 010903 1114 HK OA 0 0  PSG 01 OA 5932 IAH LAX K 010902 0800 010902 0940 010902 1200 010902 1640 HK OA 0 0  PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010716 104500 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K  PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1305 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0  PSO 01 EV 2297 L  PSG 01 OA 5932 IAH LAX K 010903 0800 010903 0940 010903 1200 010903 1640 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 2297 MYR IAH Q 010903 1140 010903 1255 010903 1540 010903 1655 HK OA 0 0 PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010717 111500 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K  PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1300 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0  PSO 01 EV 2297 Q  PSG 01 OA 0981 IAH LAX Q 010903 1420 010903 1608 010903 1820 010903 2308 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 2297 MYR IAH Q 010903 1140 010903 1255 010903 1540 010903 1655 HK OA 0 0 1 2 3 4 5
Demand Models and Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Demand Models and Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Optimization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decision Support
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Non-Traditional Applications
Two Non-Traditional Applications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New Areas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Further Reading and Special Interest Groups
Further Reading ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Special Interest Groups ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing: Part II E. Andrew Boyd Chief Scientist and Senior VP, Science and Research PROS Revenue Management [email_address]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Single Flight Leg
Leg/Class Control DFW EWR Y Avail M Avail B Avail Q Avail 110 60 20 0 DFW-EWR:  $1000 Y  $650 M  $450 B  $300 Q ,[object Object]
A Mathematical Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Mathematical Model ,[object Object],[object Object]
A Mathematical Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Mathematical Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An Alternative Model ,[object Object],[object Object]
A Leg DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
… T T-1 T-2 T-3 1 0 n n+1 n+2 n+3 … Seats Remaining Time to Departure Cancellation No Event / Rejected Arrival Accepted Arrival … … … … … …
A Leg DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Leg DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
8825 9163 9492 8478 8476 8473 20 0 … … 8823 9161 9490 8820 9158 9187 8817 20 0 … … … n n+1 n+2 n+3 Seats Remaining T T-1 T-2 T-3 1 0 Time to Departure … … … … … … 8480 V(t,n) = Expected Revenue
8825 9163 9492 … n n+1 n+2 n+3 Seats Remaining T … 8480 V(t,n) = Expected Revenue V(t,n+1) – V(t,n) = Marginal Expected Revenue 345 338 330 … T … 352
n n+1 n+2 n+3 Seats Remaining Bid Price Control: With n+1 seats remaining, accept only arrivals with fares in excess of 345 345 338 330 … T … 352
Bid Price Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bid Price Control ,[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Network (O&D) Control Control Mechanisms
Network Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Inventory Control Mechanism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example: Limitations of Leg/Class Control SAT DFW EWR ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],$1200 Y $300 Y
Example: Limitations of Leg/Class Control ,[object Object],SAT DFW EWR Y Class M Class B Class Q Class 1 0 0 0 Y Class M Class B Class Q Class 1 0 0 0
Example: Limitations of Leg/Class Control SAT DFW EWR $1200 Y $300 Y With leg/class control, there is no way to close SAT-DFW Y while leaving SAT-DFW-EWR Y open ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Limitations of Leg/Class Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Alternative Control Mechanisms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Virtual Nesting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Virtual Nesting ,[object Object],[object Object],SAT DFW EWR Bucket 1 Bucket 2 Bucket 3 Bucket 4 100 60 10 0 Bucket 1 Bucket 2 Bucket 3 Bucket 4 40 0 0 0
Virtual Nesting ,[object Object],[object Object],SAT DFW EWR Bucket 1 Bucket 2 Bucket 3 Bucket 4 100 60 10 0 Bucket 1 Bucket 2 Bucket 3 Bucket 4 40 0 0 0
Bid Price Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bid Price Control SAT DFW EWR $1200 Y Bid Price = $400 Bid Price = $600 ,[object Object]
Bid Price Control SAT DFW EWR Bid Price = $400 Bid Price = $600 $300 Y ,[object Object]
Bid Price Control SAT DFW EWR ,[object Object],6 5 4 3 2 1 $664 $647 $632 $619 $610 $600 Seat Bid Price 6 5 4 3 2 1 $434 $425 $417 $410 $405 $400 Seat Bid Price
Bid Price Control SAT DFW EWR ,[object Object],6 5 4 3 2 1 $664 $647 $632 $619 $610 $600 Seat Bid Price 6 5 4 3 2 1 $434 $425 $417 $410 $405 $400 Seat Bid Price
Virtual Nesting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bid Price Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Network (O&D) Control Models
A Model ,[object Object],[object Object]
Demand Allocation Model Max  i     I  r i  x i s.t.  i     I(e)  x i    c e   e    E   (  e )       x i    d i   i     I   (  i )     x i    0   i     I   I  = set of ODIFs E = set of flight legs c e  = capacity of flight e d i  = demand for ODIF i r i  = ODIF i revenue I (e) = ODIFs using flight e x i  = demand allocated to ODIF i
Leg/Class Control Max  i     I  r i  x i s.t.  i     I(e)  x i    c e   e    E   (  e )       x i    d i   i     I   (  i )     x i    0   i     I   The variables x i  can be rolled up to generate leg/class availability
Virtual Nesting Max  i     I  r i  x i s.t.  i     I(e)  x i    c e   e    E   (  e )       x i    d i   i     I   (  i )     x i    0   i     I   Once ODIFs have been assigned to leg buckets, the variables x i  can be rolled up to generate leg/class availability
Bid Price Control Max  i     I  r i  x i s.t.  i     I(e)  x i    c e   e    E   (  e )       x i    d i   i     I   (  i )     x i    0   i     I   The dual variables   e  associated with the capacity constraints can be used as bid prices
Network Algorithms: Leg/Class Control ,[object Object],[object Object]
Network Algorithms: Virtual Nesting Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Network Algorithms: Bid Price Control ,[object Object]
Resource Allocation Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Resource Allocation Model Max  i     I  r i  x i s.t.  i     I(e)  x i    c e   e    E   (  e )       x i    d i   i     I   (  i )     x i    0   i     I   Many small numbers
Level of Detail Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Level of Detail Problem ,[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Network (O&D) Control Optimization Challenges
A Network DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Network DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object]
A Network DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An Alternative View of DP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An Alternative View of DP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Network DP Formulation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing E. Andrew Boyd Chief Scientist and Senior VP, Science and Research PROS Revenue Management [email_address]

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Boyd

  • 1. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing: Part I E. Andrew Boyd Chief Scientist and Senior VP, Science and Research PROS Revenue Management [email_address]
  • 2.
  • 3. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Revenue Management in Concept
  • 4.
  • 5.
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  • 15. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Managing Airline Inventory
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  • 21.
  • 22. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Components
  • 23. The Real-Time Transaction Processor Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory
  • 24. The Revenue Management System Revenue Management System Forecasting Optimization Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory
  • 25. Analysts Revenue Management System Forecasting Optimization Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory Analyst Decision Support
  • 26. The Revenue Management Process Revenue Management System Forecasting Optimization Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data Real Time Transaction Processor (RES System) Requests for Inventory Analyst Decision Support
  • 27.
  • 28. Real-Time Transaction Processor DFW EWR Y Avail M Avail B Avail Q Avail 110 60 20 0 DFW-EWR: $1000 Y $650 M $450 B $300 Q
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Extract, Transform, and Load Transaction Data PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010710 225300 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSG 01 OA 3210 LAX IAH K 010824 1500 010824 2227 010824 2200 010825 0227 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 9312 IAH MYR K 010824 2330 010825 0037 010825 0330 010825 0437 HK OA 0 0 PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010711 125400 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1300 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0 PSO 01 EV 4281 Y PSG 01 OA 4281 MYR IAH Y 010902 0600 010902 0714 010902 1000 010902 1114 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 5932 IAH LAX K 010902 0800 010902 0940 010902 1200 010902 1640 HK OA 0 0 PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010712 142000 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1300 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0 PSO 01 EV 4281 Y PSG 01 OA 4281 MYR IAH L 010903 0600 010903 0714 010903 1000 010903 1114 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 5932 IAH LAX K 010902 0800 010902 0940 010902 1200 010902 1640 HK OA 0 0 PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010716 104500 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1305 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0 PSO 01 EV 2297 L PSG 01 OA 5932 IAH LAX K 010903 0800 010903 0940 010903 1200 010903 1640 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 2297 MYR IAH Q 010903 1140 010903 1255 010903 1540 010903 1655 HK OA 0 0 PHG 01 E 08800005 010710 010717 111500 XXXXXXXX 000000 I 01 1V XXXXXXXX SNA US XXX 05664901 00000000 XXXXXXXXX XXX I R 0 0 PSO 01 EV 0409 K PSG 01 OA 1221 LAX IAH K 010825 0600 010825 1325 010825 1300 010825 1725 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 0409 IAH MYR K 010825 1455 010825 1636 010825 1855 010825 2036 HK OA 0 0 PSO 01 EV 2297 Q PSG 01 OA 0981 IAH LAX Q 010903 1420 010903 1608 010903 1820 010903 2308 HK OA 0 0 PSG 01 OA 2297 MYR IAH Q 010903 1140 010903 1255 010903 1540 010903 1655 HK OA 0 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 37. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Non-Traditional Applications
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Further Reading and Special Interest Groups
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing: Part II E. Andrew Boyd Chief Scientist and Senior VP, Science and Research PROS Revenue Management [email_address]
  • 44.
  • 45. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Single Flight Leg
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
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  • 52.
  • 53. … T T-1 T-2 T-3 1 0 n n+1 n+2 n+3 … Seats Remaining Time to Departure Cancellation No Event / Rejected Arrival Accepted Arrival … … … … … …
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. 8825 9163 9492 8478 8476 8473 20 0 … … 8823 9161 9490 8820 9158 9187 8817 20 0 … … … n n+1 n+2 n+3 Seats Remaining T T-1 T-2 T-3 1 0 Time to Departure … … … … … … 8480 V(t,n) = Expected Revenue
  • 57. 8825 9163 9492 … n n+1 n+2 n+3 Seats Remaining T … 8480 V(t,n) = Expected Revenue V(t,n+1) – V(t,n) = Marginal Expected Revenue 345 338 330 … T … 352
  • 58. n n+1 n+2 n+3 Seats Remaining Bid Price Control: With n+1 seats remaining, accept only arrivals with fares in excess of 345 345 338 330 … T … 352
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Network (O&D) Control Control Mechanisms
  • 62.
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  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Network (O&D) Control Models
  • 80.
  • 81. Demand Allocation Model Max  i  I r i x i s.t.  i  I(e) x i  c e e  E (  e ) x i  d i i  I (  i ) x i  0 i  I I = set of ODIFs E = set of flight legs c e = capacity of flight e d i = demand for ODIF i r i = ODIF i revenue I (e) = ODIFs using flight e x i = demand allocated to ODIF i
  • 82. Leg/Class Control Max  i  I r i x i s.t.  i  I(e) x i  c e e  E (  e ) x i  d i i  I (  i ) x i  0 i  I The variables x i can be rolled up to generate leg/class availability
  • 83. Virtual Nesting Max  i  I r i x i s.t.  i  I(e) x i  c e e  E (  e ) x i  d i i  I (  i ) x i  0 i  I Once ODIFs have been assigned to leg buckets, the variables x i can be rolled up to generate leg/class availability
  • 84. Bid Price Control Max  i  I r i x i s.t.  i  I(e) x i  c e e  E (  e ) x i  d i i  I (  i ) x i  0 i  I The dual variables  e associated with the capacity constraints can be used as bid prices
  • 85.
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 89. Resource Allocation Model Max  i  I r i x i s.t.  i  I(e) x i  c e e  E (  e ) x i  d i i  I (  i ) x i  0 i  I Many small numbers
  • 90.
  • 91.
  • 92. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing Network (O&D) Control Optimization Challenges
  • 93.
  • 94.
  • 95.
  • 96.
  • 97.
  • 98.
  • 99. Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing E. Andrew Boyd Chief Scientist and Senior VP, Science and Research PROS Revenue Management [email_address]