This document summarizes the key trends in global fisheries and aquaculture production and trade based on a presentation given at the 2015 Mexico City Forum on Fisheries and Aquaculture. It finds that: (1) total fisheries production has stabilized over the last 20 years but production has shifted from developed to developing countries; (2) overfishing remains a problem though it has stabilized; and (3) aquaculture production has overtaken capture fisheries production and is centered in Asia. It also notes that international fish trade has expanded significantly but growth is slowing. The document identifies the main challenges going forward as improving sustainable aquaculture and small-scale fisheries management in developing countries.
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International trade in fish and fish production
1. “Foro Económico de Pesca y Acuacultura 2015”
TENDENCIAS MUNDIALES DE LA COMERCIALIZACIÓN DE PRODUCTOS PESQUEROS Y
ACUÍCOLAS
26 y 27 de noviembre de 2015 , Ciudad de México, Mexico
1
Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen
Assistant Director-General
Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
International trade in fish and fish production
2. OPENING QUESTIONS:
2
First let us analyze the developments over the last decades and the present situation.
Will there be any international trade?
1.Due to political reasons?
2.Due to lack of demand?
3.Due to environmental reasons?
• Will there be any fish to trade?
• What are the challenges and what do
we need to do about it?
1. Can we do anything about it?
2. Should we do anything about it?
17. Conclusion from this analyzes is:
• Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years.
• Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing
countries.
• Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still
unacceptable.
• Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human
consumption.
• Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed
countries, is slowing down.
17
18. Conclusion from this
analyzes is:
A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from
developed countries to developing countries, where small scale
fisheries will be extremely important.
B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to
aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia.
18
19. Will there be any international
trade in fish?
1. Political reasons?
The general political environment is favorable.
Something dramatic has to happen to change that.
2. What about demand?
19
20. • 805 million people estimated to be suffering from chronic hunger in 2012–14, down 100 million in
the last decade.
• The vast majority, 791 million, live in developing countries.
Hunger
1014.5
929.9 946.2
840.5
805.3
994.1
908.7 930.8
824.9
790.7
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 2012-14
World
Developing regions
No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
WORLD 1 014.5 18.7 929.9 14.9 946.2 14.3 840.5 12.1 805.3 11.3
Number of undernourished (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment
1990–92 2000–02 2005–07 2008–10 2012–14*
20
21. Vitamin A deficiency
Causes blindness.
250 million preschool children affected.
Iron deficiency
Anaemia contributes to 20% of all maternal
deaths.
40% of preschool children anaemic in developing
countries.
Iodine deficiency
Impairing cognitive development in children
54 countries still iodine-deficient
Millions of children suffering nutrition deficiency
Source: WHO
805 million hungry people
Source: WHO
Trend
Worldwide obesity has nearly doubled since
1980.
Adults (aged 20 or older)
More than 1.4 billion (35% of total)
overweight in 2008
Over 200 million men and nearly 300 million
women (11 % of total) obese in 2008.
Children (under the age of 5)
More than 40 million children overweight or
obese in 2012.
Billions of obese or overweight people
Source: WHO
Food security and nutrition status
Hunger hand-in-hand with poverty
21
22. Contribution of fish to human nutrition
22.9
19.4
11.6
10.3
7.6
6.5
24.1
16.7
0 10 20 30
Asia
Africa
Europe
Oceania
Northern America
Latin America &…
LIFDCs
World
%
Fish as a percentage of total animal protein intake
Fish provides high quality animal protein Fish especially important to countries with low animal protein
intake
Vitamin A
Protein
DHA
EPA
Vitamin D
Vitamin B12
Zinc
Iron
Calcium
Selenium
Iodine
Fish, a source of nutrients Daily need (RDI) for children:
DHA+EPA (Ω-3);
seafood main source
150 (250) µg
Vitamin A;
250 million preschool children
deficient
150 (250) mg
Iron;
1.6 billion people deficient
8.9 mg
(at 10% bioavailability)
Iodine;
seafood natural source, 2 billion
people deficient
120 µg
Zinc;
800 000 child deaths per year
5.6 mg
(at moderate bioavailability)
22
23. • .
OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022)
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2).
Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average.
Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.
WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections
Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7).
Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006.
Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red
Country/
region
Fish Demand
(2030) Total fish
prod.
(2012, mil.
tonne)
S-D
gap
2030
(col. 4
minus
col. 3)
kg/cap.
Total
(mil.
tonne)
WORLD
29.1 261.2 156.5
-104.7
S.S. Africa
10.8 15.1 6.9
-8.2
L.A. & C.
12.2 18.3 14.8
-3.4
N. Africa
12.9 3.7 2.8
-0.8
Europe
27.3 23.4 16.0
-7.4
N. America
29.8 12.9 6.7
-6.1
Oceania
31.9 1.8 1.4
-0.3
Asia
37.0 186.3 107.8
-78.5
Future fish supply and demand projections
FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections
Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)
Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth.
2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged
23
24. What about environmental
reasons?
a. Climate change:
Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the
Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in Boracay
Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y
b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post
CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years
may be different, continued challenge.
c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print
compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems.
However question marks around animal protein and trophic
levels. 24
27. FAO response
Guidelines
o for Eco-Labeling of Fish and Fishery Products from
Marine Capture Fisheries (2005)
o for the Eco-Labeling of Fish and Fishery Products
from Inland Capture Fisheries (2010)
o for Aquaculture Certification (2011)
27
29. Committee on Fisheries (COFI)
Sub-committee on Fish Trade (FT)
• Established in 1985, first session
October 1986
• Open to all FAO members
• Functions:
periodic reviews of global markets
discussion of specific issues
promotion and development of fish
trade, particularly in developing
countries
formulation of recommendations,
guidelines and standards
29
30. Main Challenges
There are many challenges some of which have been
mentioned
They fall into two categories:
1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in
developed and middle income-countries.
2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a
broader group of producers.
30
31. Main Challenges
However, there are two main
fundamental major challenges, both in
the shadow of climate change:
• Aquaculture
• Small Scale Fisheries
31
32. Governments
Governance:
• Policy (environment, socio economic).
• Regulatory frameworks.
• Monitoring and surveillance.
Infrastructure:
• Technology, capacity, services.
• Seed and feed.
• Water and energy.
32
Increased Aquaculture Production
33. Increased Aquaculture Production
Private Sector:
Operations:
• Resource use efficiency, best practices.
• Business management, productivity.
• Profitability.
Markets:
• Access to consumers and finance.
• Transparency, traceability, certification.
• Codex and food safety.
33
34. Sustainable Intensification of
Aquaculture
• Feed utilization
Fish meal, protein, FCR / BP, R&D, Genetics
• Water quality
O2, NH3, Silt / BP, R&D, Reg. F.W.
• Mortality rates
Husban., Inf.d., Vacc. / BP, R&D, Genetics
• Profitability
Res.util., prod., finance / Tech., exte.,fine.,
cc.
• Livelihoods and equity
Decent work, gender and youth.
34
35. Small Scale Fisheries in Developing Countries
> 50 % of the total catch
> 90% of the workers
Almost always marginalized and in many cases the poorest of the poorest in their countries.
What possibilities do they have to improve their fisheries management? With help they can?
- What happens when you attempt to improve a fishery?
- Fishing effort is reduced. Fishermen are left on the beach.
- Total community income is reduced. The population suffers.
35
36. A holistic community approach is needed that
contains the following elements:
1. Improved fisheries management system taking into account the biological and
the socio/economic circumstances.
2. Address the unemployment through creating alternative employment opportunities
through:
a. Increasing the value of the catch with value addition and by increasing trade activity and
internalizing the value chain income in the community by the communities’ greater participation
in trade.
b. Developing aquaculture and other income generating ecosystem services in the community.
c. Seek investment from outside in these enterprises. Blue bonds/Green bonds.
36
37. A holistic community approach is needed that
contains the following elements:
3. Create a community/cooperative/enterprise fishing rights system that closes the fishery to
newcomers but also links as beneficiaries both those that continue fishing as well as those
taking on new activities in common enterprises with supporting outside Blue bond
investment
4. Set up a bridging (at least) social support system to make up for community income loss
during transitional period. This needs to be financed by central governments or traditional
external donors.
37
38. Doing this calls for involvement of both investors and
trade business in creating new opportunities and
training individuals and building capacity in the
communities.
Also the traders need to be open to new products as
well as the traditional ones.
However, if we don’t do it we risk fisheries collapsing
and trade flows reducing as well as communities
collapsing and therefore driving migration.
38
Involvement
This graph shows the state of world fisheries production. It is obvious to all and we all know, that under present conditions, capture fisheries are leveling off at the same time as consumption per capita per year increases. This is made possible by the growth in aquaculture, the fastest growing food sector, which is now almost equal to capture fisheries for human consumption but we still have a sizeable portion going for non-human food consumption, mostly animal feed.
The situation of wild stocks is unacceptable, too many stocks, or around 30% of stocks, are overfished. Even though the last two SOFIA reports have not reported an increase in this section the statistical trend has not changed. We both have to and can change this. The dark blue area in the graph shows the stocks which are harvested within biologically sustainable levels and the light blue shows the stocks that are fished unsustainably.
The latest FAO estimates indicate that global hunger reduction continues: about 805 million people are estimated to be chronically undernourished in 2012–14 most of them in developing countries. This is down more than 100 million over the last decade, and over 200 million lower than in 1990–92. In the same period, the prevalence of undernourishment has fallen from 18.7 to 11.3 percent globally and from 23.4 to 13.5 percent for the developing countries. We can not say that there haven’t been improvements but there is still a long way to go until we reach our goal.
Hunger, or undernourishment, is not evenly spread around the world. The largest numbers and proportions are in Asia and Africa but Latin America and the Caribbean have their share at around 5 percent of the total. However, hunger is not the only problem since large numbers suffer from various nutritional deficiencies. This is particularly true of children. In the upper right hand part of the slide you can see the statistics and the effects of the most serious ones. Below it you can see the alarming trends in obesity, which increasingly causes great problems and even greater future concerns. On the bottom left is then a graph that shows what links all of this together, namely poverty, which is intrinsically linked to hunger, nutritional deficiencies and obesity wherever you look.
Let us now return to fish. As you can see from the bottom left-hand corner, fish is full of essential micronutrients, high quality proteins and fats which supply both energy and essential omega 3 fatty acids. The table on the bottom right shows how relatively little is needed on a daily basis to fulfill these requirements. One little fish like the one on the right can supply all of these needs if ingested whole. Protein is however considered conventionally as the most important nutritional element supplied by fish. In the graph in the top left-hand corner you can see that fish supplies almost 17 percent of the world’s animal protein, variable between regions and lowest in fact in Latin America and the Caribbean region. It is relatively more important in Low Income Food Deficit Countries. In the graph in the top right corner you can see that the lower the total animal protein intake is, the higher the level of fish protein is. The blue and red dots of the African and Asian countries all cluster towards the y-axis or the left in the graph. The size of the bubbles, especially in the case of the Asia, represented by red bubbles, indicates the size of the populations behind the country statistics. The story to take home from this graph is that LIFDCs are especially sensitive to any reduction in the supply of fish protein which would reflect very negatively in their total animal protein intake. The role of the omega 3 fatty acids is an especially important one and the medical doctor Professor Michael Crawford of Imperial Collage London maintains that Homo Sapiens, that is our own species, didn’t start to think rationally until we moved to the coast or to the rivers and started fishing and eating fish. He further says that the future of mankind therefore relies on fish and the oceans. A sobering thought.
One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2022, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. The worrying exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows a drop from the already low level of below 10 kg per capita per annum to below 8 kg in the period. Red figures represent a drop from earlier values, black figures represent an increase. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg, which is consistent with the OECD-FAO predictions, is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us.
The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
To open the Philippines’s presentation, Please right click on the hyperlink and select “open Hyperlink”
The fact is that from the point of view of an ecological footprint, as can be seen from this slide, aquaculture does very well compared to terrestrial animal protein food systems and some of them, like mollusks, supply additional ecosystem services beyond their food production. In general, then the run-of-the-mill aquaculture species does about as well, if not better, than the best of the terrestrial species are doing in this respect. I am not saying “stop producing meat” in terrestrial livestock food systems. Being an old terrestrial animal veterinarian I wouldn’t dream of doing that, but don’t tell me there are more environmental constraints to producing fish than other animal proteins, when the facts show the exact opposite.
Well, one way is the BG aquaculture pathway. Then we need to do two things, one is increase aquaculture production in countries with little or no aquaculture and we need to intensify aquaculture, if possible, in countries where extensive low productivity production systems are predominant. This is not necessarily an easy task but many countries have done it and therefore we have experiences to learn from that can hasten our advance. In this industry both the Government and the private sector have roles to play and cooperation is a vital element. I am not going to go into this in detail since this would really require at least another half-hour presentation.
However, I would like to emphasize that this has to be done sustainably since otherwise we may be courting disaster. Likewise, from the perspective of environmental effects, it matters a lot how it is done since non-fed or low input aquaculture is extremely environmentally friendly.
This also means that how we intensify is a big issue and sustainability as well the socio-economic factors matter greatly. The chain of events shown here for instance is for intensification under extensive conditions that would lead to greater productivity as well as less environmental impacts.
Most of the pictures are taken from the Cancun Underwater Museum. MUSA It is a Non-Profit Organization based in Cancun México devoted to the Art of Conservation. This museum has a total of 500 sculptures with three different galleries submerged between three and six meters started in 2009 and completed at the end of 2013. A series of sculptures by Jason deCaires Taylor and five other Mexican sculptors of the Cancún National Marine Park. The museum was thought up by Marine Park Director Jaime Gonzalez Canto with the help of sculptor Jason deCaires Taylor.
The underwater museum is to benefit the protection of the coral reefs. Artificial reefs are usually created by sunken ships and other objects that have fallen to the bottom of the ocean floor. The statues are a new technique and material for coral to grow and collect. Art was seen as saving the oceans.
As each statue was made with PH-neutral cement, coral, seaweed, and algae are able to grow and develop better than on an old ship. Stable structures with a stable base have been known to be the perfect surface for an artificial reefs to form. The statues also feature holes in them, which allow marine wildlife to colonize and feed off the coral. Coral reefs will increase, but so will marine life. After only a short time under the water, the statues began to change and nature started to do its part in growing with the help of humans. In time, all the statues will be covered and their figures will barely be visible
The museum also benefits the community. With the new installment, more tourists are coming and new tours are being created for them.
A Cancun tour guide and diver, Juan Carlos Garrido worries the museum will not last. The museum is good for his touring and diving business, but he is concerned that the statues and coral reefs may become ruined or even more damaged by a storm or the numbers of tourist that will come. These statues are meant to keep coral developing and if some get damaged the statues are able to continue that growth.
Most of the pictures are taken from the Cancun Underwater Museum. MUSA It is a Non-Profit Organization based in Cancun México devoted to the Art of Conservation. This museum has a total of 500 sculptures with three different galleries submerged between three and six meters started in 2009 and completed at the end of 2013. A series of sculptures by Jason deCaires Taylor and five other Mexican sculptors of the Cancún National Marine Park. The museum was thought up by Marine Park Director Jaime Gonzalez Canto with the help of sculptor Jason deCaires Taylor.
The underwater museum is to benefit the protection of the coral reefs. Artificial reefs are usually created by sunken ships and other objects that have fallen to the bottom of the ocean floor. The statues are a new technique and material for coral to grow and collect. Art was seen as saving the oceans.
As each statue was made with PH-neutral cement, coral, seaweed, and algae are able to grow and develop better than on an old ship. Stable structures with a stable base have been known to be the perfect surface for an artificial reefs to form. The statues also feature holes in them, which allow marine wildlife to colonize and feed off the coral. Coral reefs will increase, but so will marine life. After only a short time under the water, the statues began to change and nature started to do its part in growing with the help of humans. In time, all the statues will be covered and their figures will barely be visible
The museum also benefits the community. With the new installment, more tourists are coming and new tours are being created for them.
A Cancun tour guide and diver, Juan Carlos Garrido worries the museum will not last. The museum is good for his touring and diving business, but he is concerned that the statues and coral reefs may become ruined or even more damaged by a storm or the numbers of tourist that will come. These statues are meant to keep coral developing and if some get damaged the statues are able to continue that growth.