- The document discusses a forecast-based financing (FbF) project in Mongolia that provided early assistance to herders before the onset of severe winter conditions known as dzud. The project was implemented by the Mongolian Red Cross Society with technical support from the Red Cross Climate Centre. - Preliminary findings suggest the early assistance, which included unconditional cash grants and animal care kits, helped herders buy hay and fodder before prices surged, leading to lower livestock mortality rates and better animal care among beneficiary households compared to non-beneficiaries. - Next steps include further analysis of survey data collected, a cost-benefit analysis, and identifying lessons learned to develop best practices for future early action projects.

2. Speakers:
Jigjidpurev Sukhbaatar, Livestock Emergency Projects Coordinator and Early Warning Early Action focal point, FAO Mongolia
Niccolò Lombardi, Early Warning Early Action Specialist, FAO
Clemens Gros, Monitoring and Evaluation Adviser, Red Cross Climate Centre
Moderator:
Dunja Dujanovic, Technical Officer, Early Warning Early Action, FAO

8. BACKGROUND

12. MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS

15. Mortality rates were between 9% and 12% for beneficiaries and 22% for control.
Average share of animals in deteriorated conditions at the time of interview was between 19% and 31% for beneficiaries and between 71% and 80% for control.
Average share of goats combed in deteriorated conditions was 26% for beneficiaries and 71% for control.
Newborn mortality rates were between 0% and 4% for beneficiaries and between 4% and 12% for control.
Average milk production per day per cow during the dzud was 0,97 L for beneficiaries and 0.16 L for control.

17. MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS
MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS

19. MONGOLIAN RED CROSS SOCIETY
Forecast Based Financing (FbF)
Funded by British Red Cross, implemented by Mongolian Red Cross Society
with technical support from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, winter of 2017-2018

20. Programme
rationale
Large-scale losses of herds have
humanitarian implications
Action to reduce animal deaths are less
effective once the impacts of dzud have
already materialized (action in response to
the disaster)
Timely action to support herders based on
a reliable early warning of dzud impacts
may be able to reduce overall losses to
vulnerable herders
Anticipatory action, based on forecast,
may be more cost-effective

21. FbF early actions
Unconditional cash grant (USD 100 equiv.) Animal care kit

22. FbF early action implementation & research
4/15
Impact
survey data
collection
2/01
Post
distribution
monitoring
1/24
Distribution
of animal
care kits
1/23
Distribution
of
remaining
cash grant
12/28
Distribution
of cash
grant
12/01
Beneficiary
registration
, selection,
validation
11/30
Release of
Dzud risk
map

23. Vulnerability &
eligibility criteria
Herders with 50-200 livestock who fulfil one of the following:
• Families with multiple children (more
than 5 under 16);
• Families with disabled members;
• Elderly families aged over 60 who have
no guardian;
• Single-headed households with 3 or
more children under 16.
OR: Herders with up to 400 livestock who live in high dzud
risk area identified by LEMA.
MRCS local branch, volunteers worked together with LEMA,
social welfare officers, local government, statistics office &
community leaders to identify beneficiaries

24. Basic facts
about the FbF intervention
• No duplication with other humanitarian actors
• Presence of Red Cross in all provinces, implemented in 12
provinces and 40 soums
• 2,000 herder households
• 336,429 USD total funding
• Direct assistance to herders: 296,041 USD (87%)

25. Map of FbF interventions & sample design
FbF intervention
2,000 HH across 40 soums in 12 provinces
FbF intervention & included in survey sample
446 HH across 10 soums from 4 provinces
(223 beneficiary; 223 comparison)
Dzud risk map

26. Preliminary findings
Assistance came just as winter conditions
were becoming extreme
Households were short on hay and fodder
reserves
FbF cash assistance allowed beneficiaries to
stock hay/fodder before extreme conditions
Enabled herders to buy hay at discounted
rates (early enough before price surge)
FbF assistance may have contributed to
reduced newborn mortality.

27. Noteworthy
achievements
Cooperation with Meteorology office for early trigger
Collaboration with FAO on intervention & research
planning
Coordination and information sharing among
humanitarian country team (HCT) members
Timely assistance to 2,000 herder households
Trained & deployed staff and volunteers at the local
level
Longer-term contract with financial service provider
“Khan Bank”
Use of complaint hot-line number – 98 106 106

28. Next steps
Survey data analysis
Cost-benefit analysis
Review of the FbF Early Action Protocol
Identify lessons and share as case study