2015 san diego and national economic update july 24 2015

2015 Comprehensive
Economic Update.
July 24, 2015
Evan Donaldson
Principal Technical Solutions
Officer - Talentry

Introductions
Evan Donaldson
Principal Technical Solutions Officer for Telentry
So. Cal. Professional since 1985
• Placed hundreds of professionals in the San Diego, Orange
County, and national market
• Provided professional services consulting solutions saving
companies millions of dollars
• Recognized as an expert on maximizing outcomes through people
and process
• Extensive experience with training, employer branding, and
designing elegant and novel solutions
www.talentry.net

Talentry overview
! Talentry is a Professional Services, Project Management, Training, and Staff Augmentation
company based in San Diego, CA
! Talentry’s employees are tenured solutions providers, with deep networks, and extensive
client successes.
! Together we provide solutions focused on the intersection of people and technology, with a
focus on IT, Scientific, and Engineering professionals.
! Call us when you:
! Need a professional to help assess your technology and recommend or architect a vendor neutral solution
! Have systems that don’t work together
! Need new highly qualified technical staff
! Feel your vendors are “squeezing” you
! Have a client deadline that you are worried about meeting
! Need to develop software
! Want to go to the cloud
www.talentry.net

Economic Trends
www.talentry.net

•  Consumer Price Index (CPI): (measures changes in the price level
of consumer goods and services purchased by households.)
+ 0.3% in June 2015 (+ 0.2% minus food/energy.
+0.1% ttm)
•  Unemployment Rate:
5.3% in June (-0.2%)
•  Payroll Employment:
+223,000 in June (Avg +250k ttm) Prof services,
Temp Services, architectural, engineering,
computers. Mining (-)
•  Average Hourly Earnings:
- 0.4% in June (-0.2% $0.07 May to June. = $24.46.hr)
•  Producer Price Index (PPI): (measures average changes in prices
received by domestic producers for their output.)
+0.4% in June 2015
www.talentry.net

•  Employment Cost Index (ECI): (quarterly economic series detailing the changes in the
costs of labor for businesses in the United States economy)
+0.7% in 1st Qtr of 2015 (new data out end of July)
•  Productivity: real output / hours worked
- 3.1% in 1st Qtr of 2015 (new data out end of July)
•  U.S. Import Price Index: Tracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the
United States . The figure is significant in relation to the trade balance, the difference between the total value of
exports and the total value of imports. A positive trade balance (surplus) acts as an appreciating weight on the
dollar, reflecting demand for dollars in exchange for exports. Conversely, a negative value (deficit) puts
downward pressure on the dollar's value
-0.1% in June 2015 - primarily non-fuel (fuel rose)
•  U.S. Export Price Index: Tracks price changes of U.S. export goods. The figure is used to
determine whether a change in the headline Export figure is representative of an increase of goods sold to
foreign nations or just an increase in the price of export goods
-0.2% in June 2015 - Primarily falling agricultural prices
www.talentry.net

Retail Sales:
U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in June (but up 1.4% over the previous June)
General merchandise and electronics sales were up. Building materials and
Clothing lead the declines. (The Census Bureau report reports both volume
and price increases.)
FOMC:
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) holds eight regularly
scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews
economic conditions to determine whether expansionary or contractionary
monetary policy is needed. It issues forecasts at four of those meetings.
www.talentry.net

FOMC: Minutes from the June 17, 2015 meeting:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately
after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains
picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a
range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor
resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been
moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement;
however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation
continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly
reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-
energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based
measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures
of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
www.talentry.net

VISTAGE
CEO Confidence
Index
July 9, 2015
SAN DIEGO (July 9, 2015) — According to
the Q2 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence
Index Survey (http://www.vistage.com/
press-center/vistage-ceo-survey/), CEOs
plan on adding fewer workers to their
payroll despite cautious optimism about
economic improvement.
“If the recession taught us anything, it’s
that it’s better to be prudent than over-
optimistic,” said Dr. Richard Curtin,
economist at University of Michigan.
“We’re seeing a shift in attitude, and CEOs
are not anticipating the same strong
economic rebound that occurred in the
second half of last year.”
www.talentry.net

San Diego Trends
USD’s Burnham-Moores Center through May
2015
www.talentry.net

June 30, 2015 -- The USD Burnham-Moores Center for
Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County rose 0.5 percent in May. Leading the
gain were sharp increases in building permits and the
outlook for the national economy, while initial claims for
unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising
experienced more moderate gains. On the downside,
there was a big drop in local stock prices and a slight
decline in consumer confidence.
San Diego Trends
www.talentry.net

The USD Index has now increased every month for an entire year. May’s
increase was the smallest since October of last year and featured two
declining components, the first time that has happened since August 2014.
But the change was still positive and a majority of the components were
positive. Therefore, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged
from what has been indicated in recent reports: strong growth in the local
economy for the rest of 2015 and at least through the early part of 2016.
One thing that could disrupt this positive outlook would be turmoil in the
international economy, such as the possibility that Greece would default on
its debt payments and would have to leave the European Union (EU).
Greece by itself is not a significant player in the world economy, but it could
foreshadow problems in other European economies such as Portugal, Italy,
and Spain. San Diego is not a major financial center and doesn’t have a
strong connection to the EU, so direct impacts would be small.
San Diego Trends
www.talentry.net

Initial claims for unemployment insurance and help
wanted advertising have now increased for 13 and 10
consecutive months respectively. The net result was
that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate
was 5.2 percent in May, which was up from 5.1 percent
in April but down from 6.5 percent in May 2014. Once
again, the non-seasonally adjusted rate was below 5
percent. But May is the third best month of the year for
the unemployment rate, so seasonal adjustment
pushed the rate back above 5 percent. . . Consumers
and investors both turned gloomy in May.
San Diego Trends
www.talentry.net

Q&A, further discussion.
Contact information:
•  Evan Donaldson
•  Edonaldson@Talentry.net
•  619-227-5858
•  @Evanduz
Talentry, LLC., an organization that supplies consulting, training,
headhunting, workforce optimization analysis, staff augmentation, and
project management for companies dedicated to maximizing their
effectiveness by enhancing their biggest asset - their people.
www.talentry.net

2015 san diego and national economic update july 24 2015

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