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PwC_Case_Competition_Baker_Hughes_Final_Round

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PwC_Case_Competition_Baker_Hughes_Final_Round

PwC Advisory Case Competition, 2nd place team
• Competed against 50 teams
• Identified strategic solutions for Baker Hughes to respond to the volatility of oil prices to improve profitability over the next 5 years

PwC Advisory Case Competition, 2nd place team
• Competed against 50 teams
• Identified strategic solutions for Baker Hughes to respond to the volatility of oil prices to improve profitability over the next 5 years

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PwC_Case_Competition_Baker_Hughes_Final_Round

  1. 1. March 2018 PwC Case Competition
  2. 2. 2Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Strategic Recommendation Executive Summary Problem Company Standardize EPC Results Baker Hughes’ operating model and extant contract scheme leave it vulnerable to industry downturns Shed specialized assets and consolidate product offerings to increase the Firm’s return on fixed assets Maximize Baker Hughes’ annual net profits, partially decouple cash flows from crude spot price. Reallocate R&D Develop natural gas solutions in response to increasing demand and consumption trends Convertible Contracts Maximizes per-contract profits and streamlines production process to benefit both parties Rising energy demand in Asia-Pacific and unreliable OPEC production have lead to volatile oil prices
  3. 3. 3Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Shifts In Global Economic Power // Energy Price instability Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bloomberg Professional Services OVX/WTI Spot PriceHistory of OPEC Target Non-Adherence Rising energy demand centered around the Asia-Pacific region has led to the rise of non-OPEC petroleum producers such as the United States  Attempts by OPEC to reclaim market share have caused overproduction / member non-compliance to production targets, resulting in dramatic price instability. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 OVXIndex WTISpotprice($/barrel) WTI Spot Price OVX Index 28,000 29,000 30,000 31,000 32,000 33,000 34,000 35,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CrudeOilProduced(millionbpd) Opec Production OPEC Target
  4. 4. 4Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Oilfield Services // Industry Overview Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Baker Hughes, S&P Capital IQ Operating Rig Count vs WTI Spot Price Industry Financial Overview  Revenue and profit in the oilfield services industry largely driven by short-term lump-sum contracts  Since 2015, low oil prices have dried up the number of new commissions for contractors 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 InternationalRigCounts WTISpotprice($/barrel) Rig count WTI Spot Price 21.7% 22.4% 20.1% 14.6% 14.6% 7.8% 8.3% -2.8% -15.4% -11.8% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A EBITDA/NetIncomeMargin(%) Totalrevenue($mm) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Income Margin (%) Total Revenue
  5. 5. 5Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Baker Hughes // Company Overview Key Issue: Baker Hughes’ financial performance is linked very closely to prevailing crude spot prices. The Company is highly vulnerable to downturns in the energy market because of the short-term nature of its contracts with IOCs and NOCs. Large capex have driven down the fixed asset turnover ratio as crude prices have declined. Financial Performance 16.3% 19.0% 10.4% -1.2% -1.0% 4.9% 7.0% -12.5% -27.8% -27.3% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A EBITDA/NetIncomeMargin(%) Totalrevenue($mm) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Income Margin (%) Total Revenue Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), BH SEC filings, S&P Capital IQ 33% 22% 12% 11% 8% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Business Overview Industry Market Share Schlumberger Halliburton Baker Hughes Industry leader in oilfield services, industrial services 75% of revenues come from EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) of oil rigs and wells
  6. 6. 6Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections 6 Recommendations // Overview I. Shedding niche assets will improve FATR, ROA ratios Standardize EPC Product Offerings Employ Strategic Convertible Contracts with IOCs and NOCs Reallocate R&D Budget to Natural Gas/LNG Technologies Key Objectives: Our strategies aim to maximize Baker Hughes’ average annual net income through March 2023 by hedging against downturns in the WTI spot price / decoupling cash flow from the crude spot price. Note: Net revenue is not a significant strategic focus. II. A response to future growth in demand for natural gas/LNG products III. Increases profitability in the long run for both parties Strategy Rationale
  7. 7. 7Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections 7 2.46 2.71 2.35 2.30 1.85 1.50 1.70 1.90 2.10 2.30 2.50 2.70 2.90 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A Fixed-assetTurnoverRatio Standardize EPC Offerings and Asset Base Baker Hughes Fixed-Asset Turnover Ratio Source: Capital IQ Excess Specialized Assets Taking on ultra-specialized contracts results in underused PP&E and excess R&D Sell Off Specialized Assets Reduce underused PP&E and boost the Fixed-asset Turnover Ratio/ROA Standardize Offerings Redeploy niche asset sale proceeds to core strategic initiatives/product lines
  8. 8. 8Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections 8 Reallocate R&D Budget to Reflect Market Trends Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Cumulative Additions To Electricity Generating Capacity By Fuel In Six Cases (Present-2040) Key Takeaway  Regardless of actual future economic growth or fuel prices, consumption of natural gas as an energy source (incl. electricity generation) is expected to outpace any other fuel source up until at least 2040, including renewables. 167 117 173 220 126 236 49 25 36 23 87 105 48 34 44 35 75 70 287 191 272 293 346 453 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Reference Low Economic Growth Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource High Oil Price High Economic Growth AdditionstoEnergyCapacity(GW) Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Other Business Strategy  Reduce current R&D budget devoted to the development of ultra-specialized engineering solutions for conventional petroleum clients  Reallocate to the development of market-leading natural gas storage (including LNG) facilities, pipelines, underground reservoir EPC solutions
  9. 9. 9Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections 9 Implement Convertible Contracts // Overview Source: Moazzami, Mohammad, et al. "A theoretical framework to enhance the conversion process in convertible contracts." International Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 4.6 (2015): 248-262. FEED EPC PhaseBid Bid FEED Bid EPC Phase Traditional Contracts (Lump Sum or Reimbursable) Proposed Convertible Contract  Includes clauses in the contract that allow for flexibility in the EPC process  Increases revenue through a 20-25% mark up on the Lump Sum portion of the contract  Maximizes lifetime and efficiency of the rig Contingency Operation Operation Reimbursable Payment Plan Lump Sum & Contingency Clause Time Saved During Operation 20% Reduction in post-conversion EPC lump sum in return for revenue stream tied to productive operation of the well over its operating lifetime.
  10. 10. 10Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections 10 Implement Convertible Contracts // Benefits Feasibility ♦ Proposed contract model already used by Saipem, an Italian oil and gas contractor ♦ Contract complements market trends dictated by oil companies ♦ Appropriate risk sharing during the construction period of the oil rig Key Takeaway Baker Hughes’ implementation of convertible contracts will lead to steady future cashflows and incentivizes the production of durable and effective rigs. Benefits ♦ Involvement in FEED & EPC shortens time table and provides synergy ♦ Removes bidding process between FEED and EPC ♦ Stabilizes cash flows to offset industry downturns Operators ♦ Faster timetable ♦ Cheaper upfront price on lump sum ♦ One stop vendor ♦ Accurate price estimations vs. lump sum contract structure ♦ Optimizes rig efficiency Source: Brkic, Daslav. ”Optimizing Risk by Adopting New ‘Convertible’ Contracts.” Rice University and Saipem, 2007
  11. 11. 11Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Expected Implementation Schedule 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Begin selling off/leasing specialized assets (15% of depreciated PP&E) Begin reallocating R&D budget to natural gas solutions (30% in five yrs) Draft new contract scheme 15% of depreciated PP&E sold at 15% loss 15% reallocated 30% of R&D budget reallocated Begin implementing convertible contract scheme on short-term contract Begin renegotiating existing multi-project contracts in line with convertible offerings 60% of new short-term EPC contracts implement new contract model 30% of contracts renegotiated Reallocate R&D Budget Standardize EPC Offerings Implement Convertible Contracts Begin March 2018 By March 2020 Begin March 2018 By September 2020 By March 2023 Begin March 2018 By March 2021 By March 2023 By March 2023By January 2021
  12. 12. 12Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Financial Projections Sources: S&P Capital IQ, BH SEC filings Average Annual Profits From 3/1/2018 to 2/28/2023 (in $millions), w/ Changes Average Annual Profits From 3/1/2018 to 2/28/2023 (in $millions), Reference Case WTI price: 8/31/2020 (Dollars per barrel) WTIprice:2/28/2023 (Dollarsperbarrel) WTI price: 8/31/2020 (Dollars per barrel) ##### 25 45 65 85 105 125 25 (1431.6) (937.6) (443.6) 50.4 544.4 1038.4 45 (1251.2) (757.2) (263.2) 230.8 724.8 1218.8 65 (1070.8) (576.8) (82.8) 411.2 905.2 1399.2 85 (890.4) (396.4) 97.6 591.5 1085.5 1579.5 105 (710.1) (216.1) 277.9 771.9 1265.9 1759.9 125 (529.7) (35.7) 458.3 952.3 1446.3 1940.3 265.7 25 45 65 85 105 125 25 (1036.2) (445.1) 168.2 803.9 1461.8 2141.9 45 (816.1) (214.4) 409.6 1055.8 1724.3 2415.0 65 (589.7) 22.6 657.1 1313.9 1993.0 2694.4 85 (357.1) 265.7 910.9 1578.3 2268.0 2979.9 105 (118.3) 515.2 1170.9 1848.9 2549.2 3271.7 125 126.8 770.8 1437.1 2125.7 2836.6 3569.8 Key Assumptions ♦ Effective tax rate of 30.0%. ♦ 20% reduction in EPC lump sum contracts. ♦ Reimbursable contract profit rate of 10%. ♦ Projected revenue, COGS, and SG&A in reference case are a function of rig count, (regression r-squared of 0.986, 0.987, and 0.925, respectively). ♦ Projected rig count is a function of WTI spot price (regression r-squared of 0.958). ♦ Linear trend between current WTI spot price and that on 8/31/2020 and 2/28/2023. ♦ 60% of new contracts implement convertible contract scheme over 5 years, starting on 9/1/2018. ♦ 30% of existing contracts implement convertible contract scheme over 5 years, starting on 1/1/2020. ♦ R&D expense reduced to $300m from current $384m over 5 years. ♦ Loss on sale of specialized assets: 15% loss on 15% of current net PP&E over 5 years. ♦ Average contingency realization of 12% on post-conversion (20% of revenues) EPC. WTIprice:2/28/2023 (Dollarsperbarrel)
  13. 13. 13Executive Summary Situation Overview Recommendations Timeline Financial Projections Financial Projections // Selected Income Statement Projection 12 Months ending 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2017 28-Feb-2018 28-Feb-2019 29-Feb-2020 28-Feb-2021 28-Feb-2022 28-Feb-2023 Revenue 22,364.0 24,551.0 15,742.0 9,841.0 11,584.0 11,865.7 14,470.8 13,179.2 12,118.8 14,606.6 19,170.9 COGS 18,553.0 19,746.0 14,415.0 9,973.0 11,692.0 10,748.9 13,142.8 12,284.8 11,472.1 12,637.8 15,050.9 Gross Profit 3,811.0 4,805.0 1,327.0 (132.0) (108.0) 1,116.8 1,328.0 894.3 646.6 1,968.7 4,120.0 SG&A 1,306.0 1,333.0 969.0 771.0 1,045.0 948.8 971.6 884.5 803.5 816.8 879.5 R&D 556.0 613.0 466.0 384.0 384.0 384.0 367.2 350.4 333.6 316.8 300.0 Other Operating Expenses - - - - (57.0) - - - - - - Other Operating Expenses, Total 1,862.0 1,946.0 1,435.0 1,155.0 1,372.0 1,332.8 1,338.8 1,234.9 1,137.1 1,133.6 1,179.5 Operating Income 1,949.0 2,859.0 (108.0) (1,287.0) (1,480.0) (216.0) (10.8) (340.5) (490.4) 835.1 2,940.5 Interest Exp. (234.0) (245.0) (237.0) (211.0) (212.0) (212.0) (212.0) (212.0) (212.0) (212.0) (212.0) Int/Inv Income - 13.0 20.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 Net Interest Exp (234.0) (232.0) (217.0) (178.0) (179.0) (179.0) (179.0) (179.0) (179.0) (179.0) (179.0) Other Non-Operating Inc. - - - - 146.0 - - - - - - EBT Excl. Unusual Items 1,715.0 2,627.0 (325.0) (1,465.0) (1,513.0) (395.0) (189.8) (519.5) (669.4) 656.1 2,761.5 Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets - - - (97.0) (97.0) - (28.1) (28.1) (28.1) (28.1) (28.1) Other Unusual Exp. - - (2,288.0) (478.0) (787.0) - - - - - - EBT Incl. Unusual Items 1,715.0 2,627.0 (2,613.0) (2,040.0) (2,397.0) (395.0) (217.9) (547.7) (697.6) 628.0 2,733.3 Tax Expense 612.0 896.0 (639.0) 696.0 689.0 (118.5) (65.4) (164.3) (209.3) 188.4 820.0 Earnings from Cont. Operations 1,103.0 1,731.0 (1,974.0) (2,736.0) (3,086.0) (276.5) (152.5) (383.4) (488.3) 439.6 1,913.3 Extraordinary Items (7.0) (12.0) 7.0 (2.0) (75.0) - - - - - - Net Income 1,096.0 1,719.0 (1,967.0) (2,738.0) (3,161.0) (276.5) (152.5) (383.4) (488.3) 439.6 1,913.3 Note: The above reference data includes actual historical performance and projections through 2/28/2023, assuming a WTI spot price of $45/barrel on 8/31/2020 and $85/barrel on 2/28/2023.

Hinweis der Redaktion

  • Numbers on the bar chart
  • We cannot predict the oil price in the future, so we decided to model of our profit with a wide range of oil prices
  • We cannot predict the oil price in the future, so we decided to model of our profit with a wide range of oil prices

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