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Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2015 - Regional report North East Asia

The November 2015 edition of the Mobility Report provides updated trends and forecasts for mobile data traffic. From the addition of 87 million new mobile broadband subscriptions in Q3 2015 to the estimate that video will account for 70 percent of total mobile traffic by 2021.

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Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2015 - Regional report North East Asia

  1. 1. NOVEMBER 2015 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT NORTH EAST ASIA
  2. 2. 2  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  NORTH EAST ASIA NOVEMBER 2015 Market Overview The North East Asia region consists of Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong and represents 22 percent1 of the world’s population. Mainland China and Japan are currently the second and third largest consumer markets in the world after the US. For mobile subscriptions, Mainland China, Japan and South Korea are currently in the top four global LTE markets The North East Asia region is a useful testing ground for new telecom technologies, like 5G, with deployments taking place in ultra-dense areas, both in terms of data volume and the number of subscribers. In Mainland China, LTE networks have been growing rapidly and many LTE devices have been launched. Currently, Mainland China is the largest LTE market in the world, surpassing the US in 2015. As more people adopt mobile devices, the number of LTE subscriptions in the country is estimated to reach around 1.2 billion by the end of 2021. This will represent approximately 25 percent of total global LTE subscriptions. Japan is expected to have 90 million LTE subscriptions by the end of 2015. All operators have launched carrier aggregation of LTE-Advanced in order to provide a better user experience, and pave the way for 5G technology by 2020. In South Korea, LTE is expected to represent 80 percent of total subscriptions at the end of 2015. The country’s mobile connection speed is evolving. With tri-band carrier aggregation of LTE-Advanced, South Korea has the fastest mobile network service available globally – four times faster than standard LTE. It has set itself a target to launch pre-standard 5G technology in time for the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympics. 1 United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision Key figures: North East Asia Mobile subscriptions (million) Smartphone subscriptions (million) Data traffic per active smartphone (GB/month) Total mobile traffic (EB/month) 1,560 1,260 0.8 1.4 1,850 1,750 6 11 3% 5% 40% 40% 2015 2021 CAGR 2015–2021 The North East Asia region is a useful testing ground for new telecom technologies Taiwan has a long-term commitment to deploy new technologies. The Government’s 4G mobile broadband smart city plan promotes LTE adoption. An objective of this 3 year project is to increase GDP by USD 2.3 billion, and the expansion of LTE services is seen as a key contributor in achieving this.
  3. 3. NORTH EAST ASIA NOVEMBER 2015 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  3 Viewing of different media types at least once per day (self-reported frequency of viewing), Taiwan Scheduled linear TV Recorded linear TV Streamed on-demand (YouTube, short clips, movies, TV series and programs) Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, TV and Media 2015 Base: At least weekly viewers of TV/video with broadband at home, Taiwan (three years moving average for showing the trends) 0% 75% 25% 50% 201420132012 201520112010 Share of estimated total weekly TV/video viewing time per year on respective devices Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, TV and Media 2015 Base: At least weekly viewers of TV/video with broadband at home 0% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10% 20% Global Mainland China Taiwan Smartphone, tablet and laptop TV screen and desktop Smartphone viewing continues to be driven by shorter videos, whereas tablets are preferred for longer video content. Even though Wi-Fi caters for a significant share of TV and video data traffic, in a market like South Korea, mobile data accounts for 20 percent of video viewing consumption on smartphones. 4G users consume four times the amount of data through TV and video viewing than 3G users.2 In a few years, the internet TV era will be firmly embedded. The Networked Society will bring dramatic fragmentation to the television experience, creating challenges and opportunities for operators, service providers, content owners, broadcasters and investors. Meeting rapidly changing consumer demands will require ever-better streamlined experiences and diversity in content and delivery. 2 Ericsson ConsumerLab, TV and Media 2015 VIDEO IS GOING MOBILE In many markets, video makes up the largest proportion of mobile data traffic, and globally it is expected to grow around 14 times up until the end of 2021. The same trend is visible in the North East Asian markets New TV and media services and more video-capable devices are prominent factors in the rapid growth of video. User behavior is also changing, resulting in video being consumed in larger quantities – including when people are out and about – and on all types of devices. Globally, as many broadband users say they watch streamed on-demand video/TV at least once a week as those who say they watch scheduled linear TV. In Mainland China, 41 percent of all viewing is on-demand, and the number of hours spent watching streamed on-demand videos per week has increased by more than 5 hours compared to 2011. For markets like Taiwan, this trend is even clearer. In 2014, the proportion of people who stream on-demand content had already overtaken broadcast TV among internet users. The daily usage of streaming content continues to grow in 2015.2 TV and video content is increasingly being accessed via mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets and laptops. This has seen the global ratio of traditional to mobile device-based TV/video-watching change over the last 5 years, from 70/30 to closer to 50/50. In Mainland China and Taiwan, more than 80 percent of smartphone users watch videos on their phones, and more than 50 percent of total weekly viewing time is spent on mobile devices.2 TV screen Desktop screen Laptop screen Smartphone screen Tablet screen
  4. 4. 4  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  NORTH EAST ASIA NOVEMBER 2015 LTE subscriptions are exploding In North East Asia, LTE subscriptions are expected to reach almost 500 million at the end of 2015. Migration from 3G to 4G has accelerated in Japan, Mainland China and South Korea. Globally, these markets are among the top four that use LTE. In Mainland China, LTE subscriptions are expected to reach around 350 million by the end of the year, accounting for close to 35 percent of all LTE subscriptions globally. Despite starting late with LTE in the region, Taiwan experienced very fast uptake of the technology. By the end of September – 16 months after the first commercial network launch – Taiwan had gained more than 9 million LTE subscriptions, comprising around 30 percent of total mobile subscriptions according to NCC. This growth is set to continue, with a total of 11 million LTE subscriptions expected by the end of 2015.3 The number of smartphone subscriptions in the region is predicted to increase at a CAGR of 5 percent between 2015 and 2021 to 1.7 billion. As a result, more than 95 percent of handsets will be smartphones in 2021. Mobile subscriptions The number of mobile subscriptions is growing in North East Asia. The total mobile subscriptions in the region is expected to be around 1.6 billion at the end of 2015, which is around 20 percent of the global market. This will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3 percent, reaching around 1.8 billion subscriptions in 2021 3 National Communications Commission, Taiwan LTE/5G subscriptions, North East Asia (million) Mainland China Japan Rest of RNEASouth Korea 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 200 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 Mobile subscriptions, North East Asia (million) 20162012 201820142011 20172013 2019 2020 20212015 Other LTE/5G subscriptions Mainland China will account for close to 35 percent of all LTE subscriptions globally by the end of 2015 Mainland China, Japan and South Korea are among the top four markets worldwide using LTE
  5. 5. NORTH EAST ASIA NOVEMBER 2015 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  5 On average, total mobile traffic in the region will grow by 40 percent each year between 2015 and 2021, increasing a total of 8 times. Mobile data traffic in North East Asia is expected to reach 11 Exabytes per month in 2021. Voice traffic will grow on average by two percent each year over the next six years. In 2021, 99 percent of the region’s mobile traffic will be from data. Increasing data traffic in China Mainland China currently has the lowest data consumption in North East Asia, due to a high number of 2G subscriptions. However, the data traffic in Mainland China is increasing with the introduction of LTE. Currently, Chinese consumers are rapidly changing to 4G, with nearly 90 percent of devices sold being 4G capable.4 Data traffic in Mainland China is set to grow 55 percent per year between 2015 and 2021. High smartphone and LTE penetration rates drive data The increase of data traffic is accelerated by high smartphone and LTE penetration rates. Markets already advanced in these technologies, such as Japan and South Korea, will continue to have rising data traffic due to the growth of mobile video. Mobile traffic Total mobile data traffic in North East Asia is expected to be around 1.3 Exabytes per month at the end of 2015, of which almost 1 Exabyte per month will come from smartphones In 2021, 99 percent of the region’s mobile traffic will be from data99% 4 CAICT report and GSMA Intelligence (2015) Mobile traffic, North East Asia (monthly PetaBytes) 0 2,000 2011 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 DataVoice 2015 2017 2019 2021 Mobile data traffic, North East Asia, split per device (monthly PetaBytes) Mobile PCs, tablets and mobile routers Smartphones 0 2,000 2011 2015 20192013 2017 2021 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 The increase of data traffic is accelerated by high smartphone and LTE penetration rates 2013
  6. 6. 6  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  NORTH EAST ASIA NOVEMBER 2015 The demand for a great visual experience has driven innovation in video compression, display technology and application processors for smart devices. 4K devices are being introduced in the market and are growing in popularity. They are able to capture 4K Ultra High Definition (UHD) video, and soon users will expect to be able to send and receive 4K content over mobile networks. To support the smooth streaming of 4K video content, a high-speed network is needed, with a downlink speed requirement of up to 20 Mbps. The graph to the right shows North East Asian networks that were analyzed to determine the probability of experiencing a downlink throughput equal to, or greater than 20 Mbps. User experience varies widely between countries. In Mainland China there was a 53 percent probability of experiencing this speed within the duration of the analysis, while in Japan it was only 25 percent. This difference is mainly due to the timing of LTE roll-outs. Operators’ ongoing efforts to evolve their mobile broadband networks through technologies like LTE-Advanced, carrier aggregation and performance optimization, will continue to contribute to an improved user experience. Advanced LTE operators have acknowledged the importance of network capacity and performance in meeting the demands of a high bitrate network and increased data usage. The chart to the left is based on the user experience speed across multiple mobile broadband networks in North East Asia, South East Asia and the United States. It gives a picture of the positioning of operators in building app coverage to meet service requirements. The results are benchmarked against a downlink throughput greater than 5 Mbps and 20 Mbps. Based on the analysis, a leading North East Asian network has been ranked best among the benchmarked operators, having achieved downlink throughput greater than 5 Mbps for 85 percent of users, and greater than 20 Mbps for almost 60 percent of users. The differences in achievement can be explained by the total bandwidth available, the maturity of the LTE-Advanced deployment and optimization efforts. Network performance Probability of user downlink speed ≥20 Mbps Source: The analysis was performed by Ericsson based on Ookla’s Speedtest Intelligence Data from Speedtest.net, Q2 2015 M ainland C hina Taiw an South Korea H ong Kong Japan U S 53% 44% 39% 31% 25% 24% The growing demand for video streaming is illustrated by the high mobile traffic usage per smart device in North East Asian networks. Therefore, video streaming service quality is important in achieving high customer satisfaction Probability of user experience speed in multiple mobile broadband networks Downlinkthroughput≥20Mbps Downlink throughput ≥ 5 Mbps Source: The analysis was performed by Ericsson based on Ookla’s Speedtest Intelligence Data from Speedtest.net, Q2 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%
  7. 7. NORTH EAST ASIA NOVEMBER 2015 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  7 Since LTE was launched, operators have started to focus on LTE population coverage, especially in Mainland China. By 2021, LTE population coverage is forecast to be on par with WCDMA/HSPA. South Korea and Japan expand LTE-Advanced to offer faster speeds In parallel to building out LTE population coverage, operators in South Korea and Japan are also expanding their LTE-Advanced services, including carrier aggregation for faster speeds. The focus is shifting from population coverage to app coverage, as the number of smartphone users increases and the usage of different apps grows. App coverage for any given app is the geographical area within which a mobile broadband network delivers sufficient performance for a good user experience. To achieve satisfactory app coverage, it is also vital to improve indoor network performance. Population coverage Mobile network coverage in North East Asia is constantly increasing. WCDMA/HSPA coverage is very high, accounting for around 95 percent of the total population in the region. GSM/EDGE coverage, however, has only increased slightly, as Japan and South Korea do not have it ~85% >85% ~95% >95% ~75% >95% GSM/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE Population coverage, North East Asia 2014 2021 2014 2021 2014 2021 In 2021, LTE population coverage will be on par with WCDMA/HSPA
  8. 8. EAB-15:038461 Uen © Ericsson AB 2015 Ericsson SE-126 25 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 10 719 0000 www.ericsson.com Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society – a world leader in communications technology and services. Our long-term relationships with every major telecom operator in the world allow people, business and society to fulfill their potential and create a more sustainable future. Our services, software and infrastructure – especially in mobility, broadband and the cloud – are enabling the telecom industry and other sectors to do better business, increase efficiency, improve the user experience and capture new opportunities. With approximately 115,000 professionals and customers in 180 countries, we combine global scale with technology and services leadership. We support networks that connect more than 2.5 billion subscribers. Forty percent of the world’s mobile traffic is carried over Ericsson networks. And our investments in research and development ensure that our solutions – and our customers – stay in front.

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