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The state of the app economy - 2019 and Beyond - Eric Seufert

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An overview of the current state of the app economy, with three thoughts for mobile marketers on navigating 2019

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The state of the app economy - 2019 and Beyond - Eric Seufert

  1. 1. The State of the App Economy Eric Benjamin Seufert MGS San Francisco February 2019
  2. 2. Who I am N3TWORK Mobile Dev Memo Freemium Economics
  3. 3. Who I am Previously:
  4. 4. Presentation Structure
  5. 5. Presentation Structure 1) State of the App Economy
  6. 6. Presentation Structure 1) State of the App Economy 2) What’s Now and What’s Next?
  7. 7. Presentation Structure 1) State of the App Economy 2) What’s Now and What’s Next? 3) 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019
  8. 8. Presentation Structure 1) State of the App Economy 2) What’s Now and What’s Next? 3) 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019
  9. 9. The State of the App Economy
  10. 10. The State of the App Economy Macro factors that have changed mobile content consumption:
  11. 11. The State of the App Economy Macro factors that have changed mobile content consumption: ● Cheaper access to quality hardware / increased smartphone penetration;
  12. 12. The State of the App Economy ● Apple’s device install base reached 1.3BN in early 2018 (30% growth in two years); ● Much of this is driven by second-hand resales as high-end price points grow (eg. upcoming iPhone XS Max at >$1400). Source: BI Intelligence
  13. 13. The State of the App Economy ● Resale market is also robust for high-end Android smartphones; ● Programs like Android Go are designed to give low-end devices access to computationally-intensive activities (eg. streaming); Source: Android Authority, Flurry
  14. 14. The State of the App Economy ● Chinese demand for smartphones is evaporating; ● Smartphone penetration is reaching its natural limit globally. Source: GSMA, Canalys, Chase
  15. 15. The State of the App Economy Macro factors that have changed mobile content consumption: ● Cheaper access to quality hardware / increased smartphone penetration; ● Cheaper mobile data;
  16. 16. The State of the App Economy ● The price of mobile data worldwide, but especially in the US and India, is plummeting. Source: Mary Meeker / KPCB, The Motley Fool
  17. 17. The State of the App Economy Macro factors that have changed mobile content consumption: ● Cheaper access to quality hardware / increased smartphone penetration; ● Cheaper mobile data; ● Changing platform incentives / new revenue models;
  18. 18. The State of the App Economy ● The success of streaming video and music services forced Apple and Google to change the economics of subscriptions on their platforms. Source: Variety, Re/Code, Apple
  19. 19. Presentation Structure 1) State of the App Economy 2) What’s Now and What’s Next? 3) 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019
  20. 20. What’s Now and What’s Next?
  21. 21. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● The adoption of high-fidelity mobile advertising formats has created new business models;
  22. 22. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● Advertising-reliant businesses (eg. hypercasual games) are viable as a result of the availability of rich media advertising formats. Source: Bloomberg, VentureBeat, Re/Code
  23. 23. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● The adoption of high-fidelity mobile advertising formats has created new business models; ● The Top Grossing charts are “thawing” and are no longer the exclusive domain of games;
  24. 24. What’s Now and What’s Next? https://mobiledevmemo.com/the-mobile-app-economys-second-act/
  25. 25. What’s Now and What’s Next? https://mobiledevmemo.com/the-mobile-app-economys-second-act/
  26. 26. What’s Now and What’s Next? https://mobiledevmemo.com/the-mobile-app-economys-second-act/
  27. 27. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● Pressure is being applied to platform owners as subscription revenues increase and mobile gaming participation spans multiple platforms;
  28. 28. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● As mobile gaming goes mainstream, streaming revenues on mobile explode, and mobile apps become genuine platforms, the Platforms’ grip on distribution and transaction oversight fractures. Source: BGR, Techcrunch, The Verge, Business Insider, ArsTechnica, Facebook.com
  29. 29. What’s Now and What’s Next? https://mobiledevmemo.com/fortnite-skipping-google-play-wont-disrupt-the-status-quo-on-mobile/ But can you really afford to bypass the App Store / Google Play?
  30. 30. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● As credible targeting data becomes ever more valuable on mobile, consolidation intensifies and the Duopoly entrenches / reinforces its walled gardens.
  31. 31. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● Consolidation is accelerating in the mobile AdTech / MarTech space as smaller companies struggle to compete with the Duopoly and larger providers seek vertical integration. Source: Branch, VentureBeat, AdExchanger, InMobi
  32. 32. What’s Now and What’s Next? ● The Duopoly is cordoning off advertiser data and insights with its focus on algorithmic bidding strategies, creating a virtuous cycle of budget concentration and data segregation. Source: eConsultancy, Tech Crunch, Mobile Dev Memo
  33. 33. Presentation Structure 1) State of the App Economy 2) What’s Now and What’s Next? 3) 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019
  34. 34. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019
  35. 35. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 1) Lean into algorithmic campaign management;
  36. 36. 2013 - 2015 LTV UA Team Users “UA” What was mobile user acquisition?
  37. 37. 2016 - Now Duopoly Product Mobile Networks UA Team ROASIncent + Affiliate Users Events Traffic Targeting Traffic What is mobile user acquisition?
  38. 38. 2013 - 2015 LTV UA Team Users “UA” Purchase signals / Conversion optimization ROAS milestones What is mobile user acquisition?
  39. 39. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 1) Lean into algorithmic campaign management; ○ Team structure / composition;
  40. 40. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 1) Lean into algorithmic campaign management; ○ Team structure / composition; ○ Creative experimentation;
  41. 41. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 1) Lean into algorithmic campaign management; ○ Team structure / composition; ○ Creative experimentation; ○ Monetization signaling;
  42. 42. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 2) Be creative with monetization;
  43. 43. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 Source: TechCrunch, Variety, New York Times, CNBC, Variety ● Exclusively focusing on IAPs forces an unnecessary monetization constraint and doesn’t exploit the new business models that have been unlocked on mobile over the past 12-24 months.
  44. 44. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 3) Be prepared to face a changing regulatory landscape.
  45. 45. 3 Thoughts on Navigating 2019 Source: AdExchanger, Reuters, The Verge, CNBC ● Increased regulatory scrutiny of social networks and other companies operating data-intensive applications feels inevitable. Be prepared to operate in a more restrictive environment.
  46. 46. Thank you! @eric_seufert eric@mobiledevmemo.com mobiledevmemo.com

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