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Epic research daily agri report 03nd june 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
03 June 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
JUNE 12920 12920 12523 12523 -3.99 12780
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
12391
SUPP. 2
12258
PIVOT
12655
Coriander short term
trend is up and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12788
RES. 2
13052
CASTORSEED
JULY 4227 4289 4191 4262 +1.31 96420
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4206
SUPP. 2
4149
PIVOT
4247
Castorseed short term
trend is up and May
continue in coming
days..RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4304
RES. 2
4345
TURMERIC
JUNE 7606 7952 7564 7952 +3.97 23200
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7693
SUPP. 2
7435
PIVOT
7823
Turmeric short term
trend is down and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8081
RES. 2
8211
GUARGUM
JUNE 11090 11580 10930 11580 +3.95 11253
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
11147
SUPP. 2
10713
PIVOT
11363
Guargum short term
trend is down and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11797
RES. 2
12013
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4079 4045 +0.84
CHANA 4712 4774 -1.3
CORIANDER 12523 13044 -3.99
GUARGUM 11580 11140 +3.95
JEERA 17790 17950 -0.89
MUSTARD
SEED
4305 4283 +0.51
SOYABEAN 4118 3997 +3.03
TURMERIC 7952 7648 +3.97
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 19-06-2015 12523.00 -577.00 -4.40%
CHANA 19-06-2015 4707.00 -62.00 -1.30%
BARLEY 19-06-2015 1242.00 -11.00 -0.88%
JEERA 19-06-2015 17875.00 -75.00 -0.42%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
TURMERIC 19-06-2015 7952.00 316.00 4.14%
SOYABEAN 19-06-2015 4099.00 113.00 2.83%
CASTOR SEED NEW 19-06-2015 4092.00 46.00 1.14%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
19-06-2015 4306.00 24.00 0.56%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
19-06-2015 1828.00 9.00 0.49%
REFINED SOY OIL 19-06-2015 624.00 2.40 0.39%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The summer season demand and subsidy announced by top-producing
Maharashtra state have not supported the prices. Recently, government
increased import duty to 40% from earlier 25% to curb cheap imports to
support domestic mills. As per Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA),
India produced 278.5 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar till mid May, about 16 per
cent higher compared with 24 million tonne same time last season. The
production this year is the highest since 2006-07 when it was 28.4 million
tonne. Mills have exported only 4.6 lakh tonne of sugar (both raw and
refined) until the first week of May as per ISMA. According to USDA,
global production to be down by 900,000 tons to 173.4 million tons which
is 3rd consecution yearly decline while the consumptions will equal
production for first time. Global imports are predicted to increase by 3 per
cent due to sizable increase in imports for China, US and EU. Ending
stock for 2015/16 is forecasted at 40.53 million tons, lowest in 4 years.
China’s production is projected down 180,000 tons to 10.8 while Brazil’s
production is up slightly at 36.0 million tons. Sugar futures may trade
sideways to positive on buying interest by the market participants at lower
prices but higher output data, ample domestic supplies, lack of fresh
export orders may keep prices down.
Wheat procurement by the government has increased by 2 per cent to
27.04 million tonnes (MT) so far during the current marketing year.The
total wheat procured during the same period last year was 26.5 million
tonnes,Meanwhile, for the current marketing year(April-March), the
Centre had relaxed quality norms for wheat procurement in order to give
relief to farmers affected by unseasonal rains and hailstorms,The Center
has decided to bear value cut, if any, imposed for shriveled, broken and
luster lost grains, so that farmers get full Minimum Support Price (MSP)
for their produce.According to sources, most of the wheat procured under
relaxed specifications, is either shriveled or there is loss of
lustre.Meanwhile, on a state-wise basis, Punjab continues to be the largest
contributor to the food basket of the county with 9.95 MT of wheat
procured this year so far.
Fresh short position was seen in coriander futures from higher
levels on the account of higher supplies in local mandies coupled
with limited demand of exporters. The NCDEX futures shrugged
off by 4 percent today.The total daily arrivals in all the mandies
were also reported at 80-90 thousand bags , up almost 15-20
thousand bags from the last year. This was mainly due to bumper
production in the current year. Moreover, receding export demand
at higher levels will also limit the uptrend of coriander in the near
term.The prices were also hammered by limited export demand in
local mandies as most of the traders are expecting some price
correction in the near term.The NCEDEX July futures settled at Rs
12881 per quintal today, down 4 percent. The NCDEX futures
added 1.10 percent in open interest indicating short position by
traders.
Turmeric prices gained as demand for premium quality Turmeric
produce from North India supported prices. There are also reports
of stockists reportedly holding on to the stocks in anticipation of a
recovery in price. Agriculture Department estimates put turmeric
production this year at around 3.7 million bags compared with 5.2
million bags a year ago. As per the Spice Board of India, turmeric
exports rose 8% in 2014-15. In the early nine months of the fiscal
year India exported 65,000 tons of turmeric against 60,000 tons in
the corresponding period a year ago while its target is 80,000 tons.
At Warangal market estimated market supply was at 3500 bags,
steady as against previous day’s arrival. At Erode market arrivals
were reported at 3000 quintals, lower by 2000 quintals from
previous trading day. At Sangli market estimated market supply
was at 5500 quintals, up by 500 quintals from previous day’s
arrivals.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Chana
CHANA ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
This year pulses prices are ruling higher and farmers intend to grow more pulses
this year. In normal weather condition acreage is likely to increase by 20 percent.
However, as farmers opine that lower rainfall can change farmer’s intention and they
may go for another lucrative cash crop. If growing areas receives normal rainfall,
production and productivity are bound to increase. Under lower rainfall condition,
increase in acreage could be restricted. However, in any condition pulses area in
kharif would be higher in comparison to last year. Central Government has asked all
state governments to submit details of their demand for pulses and details of this year
crop and availability of pulses from last year's stock. The information will help central
government to analyze the situation and decide the action plan to control the
increasing prices of pulses. They can meet the demand by getting additional supply
from surplus states or can import from other countries. A meeting regarding pulses
supply-demand situation and likely price trend is scheduled next week to take the
stock of the situation. As per latest update from market participants some forward
deals of Chana from Australia have been struck at Rs4550 this week to be shipped
during October-November.
According to the local traders, no major damage occurred in Canadian Pulses by
frost and even the warm weather that followed has been ideal for crop development.
They are estimating 3.75 million acres of the lentil crop, which is well above Statistics
Canada’s 3.35 million acre estimate and 3.9 million acres of peas, comprising three
million acres of yellow and 870,000 acres of green peas. That is higher in line with
Statistics Canada’s 3.83 million acre estimate. Australian Chickpea is currently being
planted and should be finished in the end of June. Weather condition is favorable and
yield may increase this year as compare to last year. Harvest is set to begin after
September. Demand and prices of Australian chickpeas increased due to crop failure
in India. Australia exports around 95% of its chickpea crop where India, Bangladesh
and UAE are its major export destination. China for the second year in a row was net
importer of Pulses. According to the latest report compiled by STAT it imported 2.50
MMT of pulses in 2014 against 5.67 MMT in 2013. In 2014 it imported 8.17 MMT of
pulses against export of 5.67 MMT.
CENTER 02-June-15 01-June-15 Change
ALWAR 1000 800 +200
ASHOK
NAGAR
2000 2500 -500
KOTA NA 300 -
AKOLA 2000 1000 +1000
VIJAYWADA NA 1000 -
JALGOAN 200 200 UNCH
AMRAVATI 2000 1500 +500
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JUNE BELOW 12435 TARGET 12410 12370
SL ABOVE 12460
BUY GUARGUM JUNE ABOVE 11580 TARGET 11630 11690 SL
BELOW 11520
BUY TURMERIC JUNE ABOVE 7960 TARGET 8000 8060 SL
BELOW 7900
BUY CASTORSEED JULY ABOVE 4278 TARGET 4303 4333 SL
BELOW 4253
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