This presentation identifies important city-level policies and the design principles that make them successful, especially as they relate to the China context.
Putting Policy to Work: Optimizing the Electricity System
Policies That Work: Cities Edition
1. 1
有效的政策
城市篇
POLICIES THAT
WORK
CITIES EDITION
HAL HARVEY 何好
2. 2
提纲OUTLINE
1. 中国城市的重要性Chinese cities are at the frontline
2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required
3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for
Chinese cities?
4. 设计城市政策的五个原则Five principles for policy
design in cities
3. 3
前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE
1. 城市占国内生产总值的
重要部分Cities are a
significant part of GDP
2. 中国的城市正在成长
China’s cities are
growing
3. 空气质量Air quality
4. 气候变化Climate
change
4. 4
总共人口
中国城市人口
前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE
预测
历史数据来自国际银行预测来自联合国
1. 城市占国内生产总值的
重要部分Cities are a
significant part of GDP
2. 中国的城市在快速增长
China’s cities are
growing
3. 空气质量Air quality
4. 气候变化Climate
change
中国乡村人口
中国城市人口在快速增长China’s growing urban population
5. 5
前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE
Haze in Wuhan, June 2012 武汉浓雾(2012年6月)
Source: Phys.org
1. 城市占国内生产总值的
重要部分Cities are a
significant part of GDP
2. 中国的城市在快速增长
China’s cities are
growing
3. 空气质量Air quality
4. 气候变化Climate
change
6. 6
前线在于城市CITIES AT THE FRONTLINE
Source: The Atlantic
1. 城市占国内生产总值的
重要部分Cities are a
significant part of GDP
2. 中国的城市在快速增长
China’s cities are
growing
3. 空气质量Air quality
4. 气候变化Climate
change
7. 7
提纲OUTLINE
1. 中国城市的重要性Chinese cities are at the frontline
2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required
3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for
Chinese cities?
4. 城市政策设计的五个原则Five principles for policy
design in cities
8. 8
政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED
为了鼓励科研
To encourage R&D
杜伦大学
金丝雀可变光学镭射
Canary Adaptive
Optics Laser –
Durham
University
Source: 链接:http://www.stfc.ac.uk/2858.aspx
9. 9
北京:不同日子, 同一个景观
SAME VIEW OF BEI J ING, DIFFERENT DAYS
Source: Reddit user, SallyImpossible
政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED
10. 10
快速公交系统前
广州
BEFORE BRT
Guangzhou
Source: www.fastcoexist.com
政策不可或缺POLICY IS REQUIRED
12. 12
提纲OUTLINE
1. 中国城市上了前线Chinese cities are at the frontline
2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required
3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for
Chinese cities?
4. 城市政策设计的五个原则Five principles for policy
design in cities
13. 13
城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
San Francisco 旧金山Vancouver 温哥华New York 纽约市
Shanghai 上海Beijing 北京Portland 波特兰
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
14. 14
城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
以人为本的城市建设
繁荣低碳的城市化之道
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
15. 15
城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
Bike paths in Bogota 波哥大的自行车道
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
Source: Mother Nature Network
16. 16
城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
Source: http://auto.hsw.cn/system/2012/10/30/051521933.shtml
17. 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
Green building in Shenzhen 深圳绿色建筑17
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
18. 城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
Harvard-Tsinghua study – Wind energy alone can meet China’s
energy demand in 2030 (Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/415311/chinas-potent-
18
wind-potential/page/1/ )
容量因素
哈佛清华联合研究- 风力发电可于2030年单独满足中国能源需求- 更多资讯:
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
19. 19
城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
Source: Opli
20. 20
城市需要哪些政策? WHICH POLICIES MATTER FOR
CITIES?
1. 城市形态Urban form
2. 交通Transportation
3. 机动车管制Car control
4. 建筑物Buildings
5. 再生能源Renewable
energy
6. 经济质量Economic
quality
21. 21
提纲OUTLINE
1. 中国城市的重要性Chinese cities are at the frontline
2. 政策不可或缺Policy is required
3. 中国城市需要哪些政策? Which policies matter for
Chinese cities?
4. Five principles for policy design in cities
设计城市政策的五个原则
22. 22
城市政策设计的五个原则FIVE POLICY DESIGN
PRINCIPLES
1. 设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标Set clear policy goals
with annual interim targets
2. 针对成效,而非投资Focus on performance and not investment
3. 要求不断地进步Require continuous improvements
4. 于新的基础设施鼓励投资,不要留待将来翻新或替换Influence
investment in new infrastructure when it is designed, rather
than waiting to retrofit or replace it
5. 认真投资于数据分析、牌照发放及执行,确保执行过程中杜绝腐败
Invest seriously in analytics, permitting, and enforcement.
Ensure that enforcement is incorruptible.
23. 23
1.设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标SET CLEAR
POLICY GOALS WITH ANNUAL INTERIM TARGETS
蒙特利尔公约禁用含氯氟烴,要求生产商寻求其他可能性
The Montreal Protocol banned CFCs, required manufacturers to figure out
alternatives for their products
Montreal Protocol signed
CFCs
HCFCs
HFCs
让市场找出最佳
对策
Let the market
find the best
solution
蒙特利尔公约签署
氯氟化碳
氯氟烃
氟烃
10
立
方
公
吨
年份
Source: Down to Earth Blog
24. 24
1.设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标SET CLEAR
POLICY GOALS WITH ANNUAL INTERIM TARGETS
Country comparison of fuel
economy standards and targets
各国能源经济标准及目标比较
每
英
里
消
耗
汽
油
(
加
仑
)
(按
企
业平均燃油消耗调整)
美国
加拿大
欧盟
日本
中国
南韩
澳洲
墨西哥
Beware unintended consequences: Cars v. trucks. Weight v. size
当心未能预见的后果:机动车vs货车,重量vs体积
Source: E&E Publishing
25. 25
1.设立明确政策目标,包括每年阶段性目标SET CLEAR
POLICY GOALS WITH ANNUAL INTERIM TARGETS
示例:
温哥华交通模式分类目标
EXAMPLE: Transportation
mode share targets set by
Vancouver
市
内
总
交
通
(
程
数
)
2008:交通量40%为人行、自行车或公交
2020:交通量不少于一般为人行、自行车或公交
2040:交通量不少于三分之二为人行、自行车或公交
机动车公交人行自行车
目标草案方向支持绿色城市交通目标,并为2040年设立新目标
Source: http://pricetags.wordpress.com/2012/06/22/transportation-2040-the-extraordinary-slides/
26. 26
2.奖励成效,而非投资REWARD
PERFORMANCE, NOT INVESTMENT
生产扣抵税额Production Tax
Credit:
• 奖励以风力产能Credit for
electricity generation from
wind
投资扣抵税额Investment Tax
Credit:
• 支付部分风能项目发展支出
Covers portion of wind project
development costs
美国总风能电力电容及发电
百万瓦
十亿瓦小时
发电量
电容量
美国风能发电量
(十亿瓦小时)
美国风能电容量
及按年增长值
总量(千万瓦)|增长百分率
27. 27
2.奖励成效,而非投资REWARD
PERFORMANCE, NOT INVESTMENT
英国对再生能源的需求
UK’s Renewables Obligation
• 要求在2020年前以再生能源生产15%能源
Committed to generating 15% of power
from renewables by 2020
• 再生能源生产者按每百万瓦小时获发再生能
源证书Generators of renewable
electricity earn certificates (ROC) on a
per MWh basis
• 本土:0.9 证书/百万瓦小Onshore:
0.9 ROC/MWh
• 离岸:2 证书/百万瓦小时Offshore:
2 ROC/MWh
Source: UK Government
28. 28
2.奖励成效,而非投资REWARD
PERFORMANCE, NOT INVESTMENT
堵塞漏洞,重视正确指标(发电量,而非电容量)
Avoid loopholes, value the cor rect metric
(generation, not capacity)
风能器材安装及非电网连接(2006-2012)
增
加(
千
万
瓦)
非
电
网
连
接
电
容量(%)
新安装非连接电容量
Source: Business Green
29. 29
3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS
IMPROVEMENT
鼓励动态科技Incentivizes dynamic technologies
分配部分进步于公众利益Allocates some improvement to the public
good 领先者计划
由最高效者
订立指标
功能系数
领先者标准
于1999年实施
目标年份:2004
发热功能系数制冷功能系数
30. 30
3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS
IMPROVEMENT
缺乏持续进步的政策示例
Example of policy without steady
improvements:
企业平均燃油消耗标准CAFE
Standards Nearly two decades of
unimproved policy
政策停滞近二十年
每
加
仑
行
驶
英
里
数
1978-2025载客车辆燃油消耗指标
1. 国会订立客车指标(1978-1985)
2. 交通部将卡车指标订于最大可能值(1979-1995)
3. 交通部降低客车指标(1985-1989)
4. 交通部将客车标准订于27.5英里/加仑(1990-2010)
5. 国会将卡车标准冻结于20.7英里/加仑(1997-2001)
6. 布什政府新卡车目标(2005-2007)
7. 《能源独立及安全法案》修订企业平均燃油消耗至环境影响标准(2008至
今)
8. 欧巴马政府发布新订客车和卡车标准(2012-2016)
9. 欧巴马政府发布新订客车和卡车标准(2017-2025)
32. 32
3.不断地要求进步REQUIRE CONTINUOUS
IMPROVEMENT
反复行为造就我们。超群(非凡)
并非一单纯的行为,而是一习性。
-亚里斯多德
We are what we repeatedly do.
Excellence, then, is not an act,
but a habit.
- Aristotle
33. 33
4. 鼓励投资于新的基础设施INFLUENCE
INVESTMENT IN NEW INFRASTRUCTURE
• 基建设施可持续使用数十年,甚至数世纪
Infrastructure can last for decades or
centuries
• 从一开始就锁定效率‘Lock in’
efficiency from the start
• 以资金股票回报统一投资Synchronize
investment with capital stock turnover
• 避免非必要升级及替换开支Avoid
unnecessary upgrade or
replacement costs
切勿留待更新或替换
DO NOT WAIT TO RETROFIT OR REPLACE
Source: World Finance
34. 34
5.认真投资于数据分析、牌照发放及执行INVEST SERIOUSLY IN
ANALYTICS, PERMITTING, AND ENFORCEMENT
示例:京津冀地区空气质素数据分析
EXAMPLE: AIR QUALITY DATA ANALYSIS FOR JJJ REGION
Beijing Tianjin Hebei
按行动计划措施所得PM2.5改善值
Source: Clean Air Alliance of China
35. 35
谢谢!
THANK YOU
HAL HARVEY
WWW.ENERGYINNOVATION.ORG
加州三藩市
S A N F R A N C I S C O , C A
D A V I D Y U / C C B Y - N C - N D 2 . 0
Hinweis der Redaktion
Attract R&D/FDI
Source: ITDP
Here are the top principals—which apply in every sector, across most policies.
City example: Pilot cap-and-trade programs in China. C&T programs set a clear goal (a limit on GHG emissions) and allow the market to work out the best solutions. Five cities in China have begun C&T programs. This is a clear way for cities to use policy and the market to drive down emisisons.
This is a comparison of performance standards for fuel efficiency in transportation. As you can see, there has been steady improvement, but some nations are way behind the leaders.
Graph: ICCT
While more wind capacity continues to be added, nearly 20% is still not connected to the grid.
Third is absolutely crucial. Continuous improvement. Fuel efficiency standards should improve about 4% per year. This, combined with long-term signals, is a powerful dynamic.
City Example :Top 10,000 program. Cities an important role through the mayor…
City Example :Top 10,000 program. Cities an important role through the mayor…
Third is absolutely crucial. Continuous improvement. Fuel efficiency standards should improve about 4% per year. This, combined with long-term signals, is a powerful dynamic.