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doc 14a poverty analysis zimbabwe presentation.ppt

  2. 2 ZIMBABWE CURRENT SITUATION ECONOMY •The economy has shrunk cumulatively by about 40 % since 1999 •Poverty levels are increasingly worse for female-headed households and rural areas (Population below the Food Poverty line- 29% in 1995 to 58% in 2003, population below the Total Consumption Poverty Line 55% in 1995 to 72% in 2003). Human Poverty has increased, human development has fallen between 1995 and 2003. •A four digit year on year hyper inflation of 1 035 % (the highest in the world) in October 2006 •Deindustrilialisation with informal sector increasing (30 percent of employed persons in informal sector) •Overvalued exchange rate Z$250 per US$ whilst the parallel market rate is Z$2 500 per US$.
  3. 3 ZIMBABWE CURRENT SITUATION (continued) SOCIAL •High levels of HIV and AIDS although they have started to decline. Adult HIV prevalence of 24.6% in 2003 to 20.1% in 2005 and 18.1% in 2005/06. •HIV prevalence higher for women than males. •Maternal mortality has risen to a four digit figure from 695 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births in 1999 to 1 237 in 2003 •Child mortality rates were high but have started to decline with HIV and AIDS. Infant mortality still increasing. •Although there are high levels of literacy and education enrolments the quality of education is declining •The water and sanitation situation is worsening –and is worse for female headed households
  4. 4 SOURCES OF POVERTY DATA •1995 and 2003 Poverty Assessment Study Surveys (PASS) by Ministry of Public Service Labour and Social Welfare to inform the formulation of PRSP. •Typical situation were the National Statistical Office was not producing comprehensive poverty data . Parallel process funded by Government , UNDP and its Agencies (UNFPA, UNIFEM, UNICEF) •Central Statistical Office from Income, Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (ICES) –provides some poverty but not main objective. Timeliness a problem , 2001 ICES not yet published. •Other household surveys and administrative records provide poverty and gender data.
  5. 5 COVERAGE OF PASS 2003 PASS 2003 consisted of 4 surveys: •Household Survey – very big sample of 31000 households, all by gender •Homeless survey – purposive sample, 164 homeless persons, all by gender •Community Survey – Focus Group Discussions in rural communities - no meaningful gender •Institutional Survey – schools, health facilities and shops - no gender
  6. 6 COVERAGE OF PASS –Household survey Areas covered included: •Characteristics of household members (age, sex, marital status, household head ship, relationship to head of household, orphan hood etc); •Education (dropouts, reasons , literacy etc); •Health ( maternal health, vaccination, nutrition, disability etc); •Fertility and reproductive health; •Mortality including maternal; •HIV and AIDS Awareness; •Employment (Labour Force Participation, unemployment , occupation, etc);
  7. 7 COVERAGE OF PASS –Household survey (continued) Areas covered included: •Income (employment, household business, agricultural activities, natural resources, transfers) •Consumption expenditure; •Food security, adaptation and coping strategies; •Housing, amenities (water, sanitation and energy) and assets; •Land and other natural resources (land access and ownership, land conservation and environment, agricultural activities etc); •Poverty perceptions; •Transport and Communication; and •Time use of heads of households and spouses only
  8. 8 Derivation of Food Basket •Looked at the expenditure patterns of the poorest 40 % of households •Derived a single national basket as opposed to multiple baskets using the Expenditure-based method •Food Basket consisted of 30 food items mainly consumed by the poor
  9. 9 Derivation of the Food Poverty Line (FPL) PASS collected data on quantities, values and units of measurement and these were used to calculate prices •With price and value we calculated the quantities consumed. •Using mainly a local Nutribase we calculated the kilocalories consumed per person per day for each food item in the basket and then calculate the total kilocalories of the basket then corresponding income (mean monthly food expenditure per capita) •The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommend a minimum food energy intake of 2 100 kilocalories per person per day for an average active person. •To get the cost of the nutritionally required 2 100 kilocalories, per person per day; the total kilocalories consumed per person per day is divided by 2 100 kilocalories and multiplied by the mean monthly food expenditure to get the food poverty line.
  10. 10 DERIVATION OF THE TOTAL CONSUMPTION POVERTY LINE (TCPL) •In addition to food a household requires basic non food items such as clothes, shelter, education, transport, lighting and heating and healthy. •Traditional Approach to scale up the FPL to get the TCPL was used. • Traditional method: Take households whose monthly food expenditure is equal to the FPL . Average their total expenditure per month . That is the TCPL.
  11. 11 CLASSIFICATION OF HOUSEHOLDS/PERSONS INTO POVERTY CATEGORIES Households/persons were classified in terms of income poverty into the following categories. A person was classified by the poverty status of their household. •Very Poor - Households/persons whose per capita monthly expenditure was below the FPL; •Poor – Households/persons whose per capita monthly expenditure is equal and or above the FPL but below the TCPL; •Total Poor (Very poor and poor)– Households/persons whose per capita monthly expenditure was below the TCPL; and •Non-poor – Households/persons whose per capita monthly expenditure was equal or above the TCPL
  12. 12 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN POVERTY •PASS data also used to update the non money-metric measures of poverty: • Human Development Index (HDI); •Gender –related Development Index; •Human Poverty Index; and •Gender Empowerment Measure
  13. 13 MAJOR POVERTY INDICATORS The following poverty indicators were calculated from PASS 2003 by gender where possible: 1. Poverty Incidence-the proportion of households below a defined poverty line ( Population below FPL (Very poor) 29 % in 1995 to 58 % in 2003, population below TCPL 55% in 1995 to 72 percent in 2003). Female headed >Male headed 2. Poverty Gap (or depth)- measures the gap between expenditures of the poor and the TCPL 3. Poverty severity-measures how poor the poorest of the poor are 4. (See technical note D for calculation of these poverty measures) 5. Gini coefficient -measure income inequalities (0.53 in 1995 to 0.61 in 2003) 6. Human Poverty Index - (23% in 1995 to 33% in 2003) 7. Human Development Index - (0.468 in 1995 to 0.410 in 2003)
  14. 14 OUTPUTS FROM PASS A number of publications are being produced from PASS 2003 namely: • The Main Report (with 22 chapters covering the various economic and social dimensions of poverty and comparing 1995 and 2003), 10 Provincial Reports, a Poverty Atlas and four thematic reports on ( The Gender Dimensions of Poverty , Poverty and Orphans and Vulnerable Children, Poverty and Nutrition and Poverty and the Environment) • The thematic reports are the first to be produced from a PASS. Various United Nations (UN) Agencies have supported the production of thematic reports which are relevant to their mandate.
  15. 15 OUTPUT FROM PASS 2003 (continued) • All these reports from the PASS 2003 process are gender mainstreamed. • However, in addition to the gender mainstreaming in the various reports, the Gender Dimensions of Poverty Report will mainstream gender in greater detail than the other reports. • In addition to the production of the various reports there are huge volumes of raw of data from PASS 2003 will be made readily available to the public for further in-depth research.
  16. 16 The Gender Dimensions of Poverty Thematic Report from PASS 2003 • First Thematic Report of The Gender Dimensions of Poverty ever in Zimbabwe. In 1995 only one chapter was written on Gender and poverty. • First to provide an integrated story of poverty and gender –brings out the interconnectedness of issues • Status report, mainly descpriptive with no causality –therefore needs to be complemented by qualitative research to answer some of the “whys” • Zimbabwe is a patriarchal society therefore analysis assumes de-facto female- headed, de-jure female-headed and male-headed households. Problem of lumping female headed households together. • Also looks at various de-jure female-headed such as married, divorced, separated, widowed, never married, co-habiting • 22 chapters on poverty, gender and various issues in all areas such as: poverty prevalence; human poverty and human development; demographic characteristics; education; general health and disability: HIV, AIDS and chronic illnesses; Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVCs); activity and the labour force; the informal economy and household businesses; agriculture; the environment; income, consumption and expenditure; child nutrition and household meal consumption; agriculture; environment; housing amenities; ownership and access to assets; access to transport; communication and other services and time use.
  17. 17 The Gender Dimensions of Poverty Thematic Report from PASS 2003 Some Results • Poverty Prevalence highest in de-facto female headed (56 % very poor), followed by de-jure female headed (53%)and then male headed (46 %) (Unusual due to macroeconomic instability) • And also highest for widows: Widowed (59%), Married (56%), Divorced (46 %), Never married (24%), Co-habiting (19%) • Time use data collected for heads and spouses, however it was problematic as it left out other ages. Results showing women spending time on reproductive roles with less for leisure and even bathing-issue of time poverty. • Interestingly a greater proportion of employed women make independent decisions on the use of the income they earn than men. This suggests an improvement overtime.
  18. 18 CHALLENGES IN POVERTY and GENDER Mainstreaming • There is a need for gender mainstreaming at instrument design stage- For PASS 2003, the gender experts came in at tabulation stage after data collection. • Improve consciousness/ awareness of gender mainstreaming-MDG Progress Reports process relying on gender data from PASS 2003 but not optimally utilizing it (half of indicators not gender mainstreamed). • For gender mainstreaming to be effective it has to come at the onset of policy formulation –however there is a lack of capacity in key institutions such as Ministry of Youth Development, Gender and Employment Creation, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economic Development, Reserve Bank etc • As mentioned earlier timeliness of data on poverty –ICES 2001 not yet published, PASS 2003 being published in 2006 • Optimal in depth gender analysis of existing data • In-depth research on topical issues such as HIV and AIDS, care work, time use, gender violence, access to resources, informal economy etc • High staff turnover in the whole machinery responsible for gender mainstreaming- there is therefore need to build a core network of gender experts to assist.
  19. 19 WAY FORWARD • Identify the crucial gender issues • Train key gender mainstreamers in gender concepts, measurement and indicators • Adopt list of core statistics and indicators needed to address those issues • Need to develop standard guidelines on gender mainstreaming for policy makers and train them • Gender experts to assist in gender mainstreaming in every national formulation process • Mobilise financial and technical resources to do in-depth analysis on already existing data • Mobilise financial and technical resources for capacity building in gender mainstreaming for the National Gender machinery including the Gender Focal Points, CSO and other research institutions • Build a core network of gender experts to be called upon to assist in gender mainstreaming in every plan formulation process • Improve on the presentation and dissemination and of gender statistics.
  20. 20 THANK YOU Joyce Malaba Statistician/Researcher 5 Bargrove Close Glen Lorne Harare Telephone :263 04 494770 Cell Phone:26311808233 Fax:263 04 775445 Email: