Ton Manders from the Air Science Policy group gave a presentation on air quality and policy responses. He discussed projections from the OECD that air pollution, especially urban particulate matter and ground-level ozone, will be among the top environmental risks globally by 2050 if no further action is taken. Current air pollution levels in many major cities already exceed WHO guidelines. Air pollution policies aim to reduce emissions by over 50% through energy efficiency, fuel switching and economic structural changes to gain co-benefits for climate change mitigation as well. Cost-benefit analyses show that air quality policies can provide high societal benefits relative to their reasonably low costs.

1. 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP),
Dublin | Ton Manders
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The economics of air
quality and
associated policy
responses

2. 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP),
Dublin | Ton Manders
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Content
OECD Environmental Outlook
to 2050
Co-benefits
Costs and benefits

3. 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders3
Urban air pollution to become top by 2050
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Particulate
Matter
Ground-level
ozone
Unsafe Water
Supply and…
Indoor Air
Pollution
Malaria
Deaths (millions of people)
2010
2030
2050
Global premature deaths from
selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050

4. Urban air pollution worse than WHO guidelines
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
OECD
Brazil
Russia
India
Indonesia
China
Africa
South…
μg/m3
2010
2030
2050
WHO Air Quality Guideline
20
PM10 concentration in major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050

5. Premature deaths (PM) more than double
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Deaths(millionsofpeople)
OECD BRIICS RoW
Premature deaths worldwide from exposure to PM: Baseline

6. OECD high premature death rates from ground-level ozone
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
OECD India South +SE Asia Other countries
Deathspermillioninhabitants
2010 2030 2050
Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: Baseline
Number of deaths per million inhabitants

7. Co-benefits of Air Pollution Policy
 Air pollution policy depends on end-of-pipe controls (< 50%)
 Required emission reduction will come from changes in the
use of energy (>50%)
– efficiency improvements
– fuel switching
– other structural changes in the economy.
 Greenhouse gas emissions decrease, which renders climate
change policies less costly.
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders7

8. 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders8

9. Costs and benefits - general
 Methodology
– Discounting
– Valuation (VOLY)
– Scope
 Costs
– Agriculture (NH3, manure)
– Transport (inland shipping), consumers
– Manufacturing, refineries
 Benefits
– Health (premature deaths)
– Nature
– Economic
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders9

10. Costs and benefits - Netherlands
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11. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 2030
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12. Health impacts: years of life lost, 2030
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13. Sea-based versus land-based air policies:
cost and benefits and cost-effectiveness compared
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14. Good is not alway best - optimal policy
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders14

15. Take away
 Air quality/pollution is a policy topic of sustained importance
globally into the future
 Air quality/pollution policies can carry high benefits and
reasonably low costs
 There are however, many complexities and considerations in
terms of weighing up the costs and benefits of actions in the
context of broader policy decisions
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders15

16. References
 OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, OECD
 PBL (2012), Air Pollution Policy in Europe: Quantifying the
Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change
Policies, PBL Working Paper 7 / CPB Discussion Paper 220
 PBL (2012), Assessment of the environmental impacts and
health benefits of a nitrogen emission control area in the
North Sea, PBL Policy S
 ton.manders@pbl.nl
15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders16